Lead off hitter?

[saskjayfan]

"Pillar could be a very good hitter if he learned a bit of patience"

 

So would JP Arencibia.

 

I know that's the thing. History shows that on the macro players do develop better plate discipline as they get more plate appearances under their belt, but some players improve very little or not at all. Some regress when pitchers figure the hitter out and others improve dramatically and there's everything in between.

 

The big difference between Arencibia and Pillar is that Pillar can handle the bat. While Kevin swings at virtually everything, he also only struck out 85 times last year in over 600 plate appearances. He makes contact at balls inside and outside the zone far more than the average major league player.

 

The mental side of the game is very important. The game is 90% mental and the other half is physical! Pillar has always been stashed at the bottom of the lineup. He's always been able to hack away and try and make something happen. They just wanted him to play good defense. Putting him at the top of the lineup may not change him one bit, but it maybe it would help him too. I'm not heavily convicted to this idea, but Pillar put up a .314 obp. That was an improvement over his first couple seasons. If he did improve his approach at the plate and got up to a .330 or .335 he could be a viable lead off hitter. Having speed is not a necessity for a lead off hitter, but having it is not a bad thing. It's only a month of the season. Playing leading might give Pillar a kick in the ass, it might not.

[Boxcar]

I know that's the thing. History shows that on the macro players do develop better plate discipline as they get more plate appearances under their belt, but some players improve very little or not at all. Some regress when pitchers figure the hitter out and others improve dramatically and there's everything in between.

 

The big difference between Arencibia and Pillar is that Pillar can handle the bat. While Kevin swings at virtually everything, he also only struck out 85 times last year in over 600 plate appearances. He makes contact at balls inside and outside the zone far more than the average major league player.

 

The mental side of the game is very important. The game is 90% mental and the other half is physical! Pillar has always been stashed at the bottom of the lineup. He's always been able to hack away and try and make something happen. They just wanted him to play good defense. Putting him at the top of the lineup may not change him one bit, but it maybe it would help him too. I'm not heavily convicted to this idea, but Pillar put up a .314 obp. That was an improvement over his first couple seasons. If he did improve his approach at the plate and got up to a .330 or .335 he could be a viable lead off hitter. Having speed is not a necessity for a lead off hitter, but having it is not a bad thing. It's only a month of the season. Playing leading might give Pillar a kick in the ass, it might not.

 

This has to be a joke.

 

All this offense

 

"Let's consider Kevin Pillar for leadoff because he might feel better about himself."

 

like...what? Bolded is funny because literally the only reason you're suggesting Pillar is because he's fast.

[Jimcanuck]

Pillar is the worst choice for lead off, you don't want your best hitters coming up already down an out. I don't care how fast he is.

 

If Pillar somehow gets his OBP up past .350, it can be considered.

[flafson]

Actually he hit Tulo leadoff and Revere 9th for like a month. But whatever. f*** Gibbons amirite?

 

At the time Revere wasn't hitting and Tulo was Tulo, so it made some sense.

[Orgfiller]

Would you guys have Salvador Perez leading off?

[Stangstag]

Would you guys have Salvador Perez leading off?

 

No... because he isn't a very good hitter.

 

Not sure what the point of this question is

[saskjayfan]

This has to be a joke.

 

All this offense

 

"Let's consider Kevin Pillar for leadoff because he might feel better about himself."

 

like...what? Bolded is funny because literally the only reason you're suggesting Pillar is because he's fast.

 

Are you incapable of reading? I think Pillar should be the leadoff guy because I believe he can put up an .obp of .335 to .340. He got on base around .270 in his first couple years in cameos where he had a couple hundred plate appearances. Last year he had an obp of .314. That's improvement. His o-contact and z-contact percentages are better than league average. His o-swing percentage is drastically higher than league average. The only way you limit your strikeouts to 85 when you are swinging at so many more pitches outside the zone is if you have good bat control. Pillar is an athletic guy who makes contact. I do believe putting him in the leadoff spot might put himself in the right frame of mind make him feel that he needs to get on base more. This obviously should be the goal regardless, but athletes are always trying to make something happen. I believe their will be natural growth in his approach and plate discipline by just getting more reps. I feel putting him in the leadoff may help put him in the mental frame of mind to accelerate this process. This may not be the case.

 

No one thought Pillar's defense or base running abilities were anywhere near the level he showed last year. I just see upside in his bat as well. Feel free to disagree with me, but go f*** yourself if you think I said Pillar should be the leadoff guy because he's fast. That's one small part of what I think his overall offensive production can be.

[G-Snarls]

Bautista mad at opposing pitcher = improved ability to hit massive bombs

 

Bautista mad at Gibby for hitting him leadoff? Not so sure

[G-Snarls]

Would you guys have Salvador Perez leading off?

 

Heck no. But his OBP has declined every single year he's played so far. Catchers...

[intentional wok]

But even if Pillar achieves a ~.340 OBP or something, that's still probably going to be lower than any of the big four.

 

I mean I'd love Pillar even more than I do if he could climb to that level but I'm not going throw him a bone over other, more productive players just because he's exceeded his own abilities.

 

The only reason this is a discussion is because of the urge to build a traditional-looking lineup. If, for just one year, all MLB teams built hyper-efficient lineups this mentality of slotting The Quick Guy into No. 1 would vanish. It's all perception.

 

Just score the most runs and stack as many of the unlikeliest outs together using whatever metric works.

[flafson]

But even if Pillar achieves a ~.340 OBP or something, that's still probably going to be lower than any of the big four.

 

I mean I'd love Pillar even more than I do if he could climb to that level but I'm not going throw him a bone over other, more productive players just because he's exceeded his own abilities.

 

The only reason this is a discussion is because of the urge to build a traditional-looking lineup. If, for just one year, all MLB teams built hyper-efficient lineups this mentality of slotting The Quick Guy into No. 1 would vanish. It's all perception.

 

Just score the most runs and stack as many of the unlikeliest outs together using whatever metric works.

 

Pillar is more likely to steal bases though. It's more of a question of how much an extra ~.050 OBP is worth it to you vs having a guy who can steal bases, score runs from 2nd on pretty much anything and a guy that slide into home base like superman?

[BigCecil]

Pillar is more likely to steal bases though. It's more of a question of how much an extra ~.050 OBP is worth it to you vs having a guy who can steal bases, score runs from 2nd on pretty much anything and a guy that slide into home base like superman?

 

With the 3 guys hitting behind the lead off hitter we have this year, the risk of stealing with Pillar's speed negates the possible upside.

[Brownie19]

Are we seriously debating whether Pillar would be the leadoff hitter? WTF. He's a below average hitter in every respect. Even if he makes a big improvement, he likely goes from a 93 wRC+ hitter to a league average hitter.

 

Tulo is one year removed from a .432 OBP, 170 wRC+ season (.391 OBP, 141 wRC+ in 2013) Pillar couldn't touch that level of excellence in his wet dreams. Unless you think Tulo is completely done as a hitter, with no chance to rebound, then any logical person wants Tulo getting more at bats than Pillar.

[Jimcanuck]

Are we seriously debating whether Pillar would be the leadoff hitter? WTF. He's a below average hitter in every respect. Even if he makes a big improvement, he likely goes from a 93 wRC+ hitter to a league average hitter.

 

Tulo is one year removed from a .432 OBP, 170 wRC+ season (.391 OBP, 141 wRC+ in 2013) Pillar couldn't touch that level of excellence in his wet dreams. Unless you think Tulo is completely done as a hitter, with no chance to rebound, then any logical person wants Tulo getting more at bats than Pillar.

 

No debate, just a couple of posters with their heads in their asses.

[intentional wok]

Pillar is more likely to steal bases though. It's more of a question of how much an extra ~.050 OBP is worth it to you vs having a guy who can steal bases, score runs from 2nd on pretty much anything and a guy that slide into home base like superman?

 

This is a huge difference. Yes, I want the guy who gets on base 30 more times in the season so he can be a bigger part of another 35+ HR campaign from Donaldson or Bautista or Edwin.

 

You're asking if we want a guy who makes 30 more outs in a year getting the most PAs because you want him to gamble with the outs he avoided in front of three of the game's best power hitters. And only for the benefit of a single base.

 

If you're late in the game and you absolutely, positively need that extra base, just pinch run for the guy who had a higher chance of making it on base in the first place.

[Terminator]

Subscribing to the old Bill James theory that keeping your players happy is worth more to your team than a statistically optimized lineup, I'd just put Tulo in the leadoff spot and leave everything else more or less the same as it's been in the past. If Bautista didn't take as much pride in hitting 3rd as he seems to than I would move him and Donaldson up to 1 & 2 and slot Tulo or Martin in the third spot ahead of Encarnacion. It doesn't matter.

 

This is a good answer. The one thing I might tweak is to see if Bautista would be willing to bat 4th instead. So something like this:

 

1. Tulo

2. Donaldson

3. Martin

4. Bautista

5. EE

6. Smoakabello (S)

7. Saunders (L)

8. Pillar

9. Goins (L)

 

Would it be worth putting Smoak/Cola or Saunders in the #3 spot to split up the righties? Then putting Martin 6th?

[G-Snarls]

This is a good answer. The one thing I might tweak is to see if Bautista would be willing to bat 4th instead. So something like this:

 

1. Tulo

2. Donaldson

3. Martin

4. Bautista

5. EE

6. Smoakabello (S)

7. Saunders (L)

8. Pillar

9. Goins (L)

 

Would it be worth putting Smoak/Cola or Saunders in the #3 spot to split up the righties? Then putting Martin 6th?

 

I wouldn't do this. Bautista Donaldson and EE are so good against LHP and RHP that I don't think it matters. They're our best hitters. They need to be at the top of the order.

[Terminator]

I wouldn't do this. Bautista Donaldson and EE are so good against LHP and RHP that I don't think it matters. They're our best hitters. They need to be at the top of the order.

 

Well I've got them at the top of the order or in the middle of the order. I've tried not make it too wacky for them by having Bautista bat leadoff and also play it by The Book by putting a lesser hitter in the 3rd spot which isn't as important as 1-2-4 or 5.

[Boxcar]

Are you incapable of reading? I think Pillar should be the leadoff guy because I believe he can put up an .obp of .335 to .340. He got on base around .270 in his first couple years in cameos where he had a couple hundred plate appearances. Last year he had an obp of .314. That's improvement. His o-contact and z-contact percentages are better than league average. His o-swing percentage is drastically higher than league average. The only way you limit your strikeouts to 85 when you are swinging at so many more pitches outside the zone is if you have good bat control. Pillar is an athletic guy who makes contact. I do believe putting him in the leadoff spot might put himself in the right frame of mind make him feel that he needs to get on base more. This obviously should be the goal regardless, but athletes are always trying to make something happen. I believe their will be natural growth in his approach and plate discipline by just getting more reps. I feel putting him in the leadoff may help put him in the mental frame of mind to accelerate this process. This may not be the case.

 

No one thought Pillar's defense or base running abilities were anywhere near the level he showed last year. I just see upside in his bat as well. Feel free to disagree with me, but go f*** yourself if you think I said Pillar should be the leadoff guy because he's fast. That's one small part of what I think his overall offensive production can be.

 

Well, it's a bit hard to discern when your projections aren't based in reality.

[Olerud363]

Pillar is the worst choice for lead off, you don't want your best hitters coming up already down an out. I don't care how fast he is.

 

If Pillar somehow gets his OBP up past .350, it can be considered.

 

Nobody is really answering the question. It doesn't matter if Pillar gets his on base percentage up to .350... what matters is whether the team on base percentage would be better, with Pillar hitting leadoff, because everybody is happy and comfortable.

 

Cito Gaston believed that if you make the players feel better, make them comfortable, they will hit better. We have no one that really fits in as a lead off hitter, so say putting a big guy (Bautista, Tulo) 1st will knock 30 points of their oba, and putting Pillar 1st will add 30 points to his oba.

 

Well, then hitting Pillar 1st will actually increase offense, because you have a couple of guys performing better.

 

Which may be total ********. Just kind of funny no one answers the question properly.

 

The only reason not to hit Bautista 1st is because one thinks it might effect his performance... if Bautista will get his ussual power and walk heavy .370+ oba hitting 1st then put him there.

 

If you believe that there is some phychology involved then unconventional lineups could actually make sense.

[glory]

Maybe Pillar hitting 1st will have the same impact on the Jays as Escobar leading off had for the Royals.

 

Bat Tulo 8th.

[Olerud363]

If you believe that there is some phychology involved then unconventional lineups could actually make sense.

 

And what I mean is "unconventional" according to this board. Actually would be conventional to the cassuals.

 

To this board - Hitting fast low obp guy first is unconventional, to casual fans and Ned Yost -- Pillar fast, lead off

[Olerud363]

Maybe Pillar hitting 1st will have the same impact on the Jays as Escobar leading off had for the Royals.

 

Bat Tulo 8th.

 

I don't think hitting Tulo 8th is the answer. The Cito Gaston approach is to give players the lineup spot they deserve. RESPECT

 

Pillar

Martin

Donaldson

Bautista

EE

Tulo

Saunders

Smoak

Goins

 

Pillar hits a bit better because he is up front, Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Tulo are close enough to middle of the order that they feel comfortable and respected.

 

It all be ********.

[Jimcanuck]

Nobody is really answering the question. It doesn't matter if Pillar gets his on base percentage up to .350... what matters is whether the team on base percentage would be better, with Pillar hitting leadoff, because everybody is happy and comfortable.

 

Cito Gaston believed that if you make the players feel better, make them comfortable, they will hit better. We have no one that really fits in as a lead off hitter, so say putting a big guy (Bautista, Tulo) 1st will knock 30 points of their oba, and putting Pillar 1st will add 30 points to his oba.

 

Well, then hitting Pillar 1st will actually increase offense, because you have a couple of guys performing better.

 

Which may be total ********. Just kind of funny no one answers the question properly.

 

The only reason not to hit Bautista 1st is because one thinks it might effect his performance... if Bautista will get his ussual power and walk heavy .370+ oba hitting 1st then put him there.

 

If you believe that there is some psychology involved then unconventional lineups could actually make sense.

 

Sure you have to consider the influence on the lineup psychology. The primary consideration though is getting the top guys up to the plate with someone on base and one out or less.

 

I would consider Travis, Tulo, Martin, Bautista, and possibly Saunders/Pompey for leadoff before considering Pillar.

 

Pillar can bat 9th and be the "2nd leadoff hitter"

[intentional wok]

I wish comfort could be a factor in enhancing talent. I'd be pretty comfortable making just league minimum to play baseball for a few hours a day.

 

Prettay, prettay, prettaaaaay comfortable. Then comes the .430 OBP. Then the sections of female fans.

[Olerud363]

Where the hell is Grant when you need him?? Grant -- You love Cito -- the Cito-ball means giving guys (like Devo) a "respectful" lineup spot.

 

Give me some cherry pick facts to back this up. Pillar=White Devo - will have .340 oba if we lead him off... Cito would. Help me out here.

[Grant77]

Here are some various lineup analyses I tried out using steamer projections:

 

5.074

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

Russell Martin

Edwin Encarnacion

Troy Tulowitzki

Chris Colabello

Kevin Pillar

Ryan Goins

Michael Saunders

 

4.774

Chris Colabello

Kevin Pillar

Edwin Encarnacion

Ryan Goins

Michael Saunders

Russell Martin

Troy Tulowitzki

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

 

5.190

Jose Bautista

Josh Donaldson

Russell Martin

Edwin Encarnacion

Troy Tulowitzki

Chris Colabello

Devon Travis

Kevin Pillar

Michael Saunders

 

4.958

Chris Colabello

Kevin Pillar

Troy Tulowitzki

Russell Martin

Devon Travis

Michael Saunders

Josh Donaldson

Jose Bautista

Edwin Encarnacion

[Olerud363]

I wish comfort could be a factor in enhancing talent. I'd be pretty comfortable making just league minimum to play baseball for a few hours a day.

 

Prettay, prettay, prettaaaaay comfortable. Then comes the .430 OBP. Then the sections of female fans.

 

My hypothesis would be that comfort adds 15 points of oba, discomfort takes away 15

 

So if your natural on base percentage is .415, you will get .430 when comfortable, .400 when uncomfortable.

 

If your natural on base percentage is .415 you'd be there allready. Your natural on base percentage is probably from .000 to .100 depending... like if you are just normal guy it is probably zero, if you played some college ball maybe it is .100.

[Jimcanuck]

My hypothesis would be that comfort adds 15 points of oba, discomfort takes away 15

 

So if your natural on base percentage is .415, you will get .430 when comfortable, .400 when uncomfortable.

 

If your natural on base percentage is .415 you'd be there allready. Your natural on base percentage is from .000 to .100 depending... like if you are just normal guy it is probably zero, if you played some college ball maybe it is .100.

 

Worst f***ing thing to happen would bat Pillar leadoff at the start of the year, then almost guaranteed event out of necessity drop him down to bottom 3rd, and have him pout for a month.

 

Best f***ing thing to happen is he bats bottom third from the get go, no complaints, plays great D, puts up a 3-4 WAR season.

[43211234]

I feel like it could very easily be Saunders/Pompey leading off if Travis isn't ready.