Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[L54]

Pretty hard to know that 6 years after you trade him Lane Thomas will run a .367 BABIP and be worth two WAR

[Jimcanuck]

Lane Thomas is a prime example of not knowing what you have. A clear organizational need dealt off for the crapshoot lottery which is Latin Free Agency. Seems like the guys sign for nothing have the same odds of making it as the big money guys.

 

I don't see it. Do you have evidence? Rate of success / failure is probably very similar to the MLB draft. Higher rate of success at the top end, much lower at the low end.

 

Also for every Lane Thomas that leaves, a guy like Teoscar arrives. Blue Jays are not unique in moving players that end up being MLB contributors.

[Jimcanuck]

Case in point, top IFA signing from this year is doing unprecedented things for a 17 yr old:

 

Ethan Salas, C, Padres: The top signing in the 2023 international class continues to amaze for Low-A Lake Elsinore. On Tuesday the 17-year-old backstop crushed a walkoff single in the 10th inning and hit his second triple of the season. Salas is hitting .395/.469/.791 in July with seven extra-base hits and 14 RBIs.

[Brownie19]

Lane Thomas is a prime example of not knowing what you have. A clear organizational need dealt off for the crapshoot lottery which is Latin Free Agency. Seems like the guys sign for nothing have the same odds of making it as the big money guys.

 

This is a turrrible take.

[Spanky__99]

Painter needs TJS...

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2678950

[Jonn]

Case in point, top IFA signing from this year is doing unprecedented things for a 17 yr old:

 

Ethan Salas, C, Padres: The top signing in the 2023 international class continues to amaze for Low-A Lake Elsinore. On Tuesday the 17-year-old backstop crushed a walkoff single in the 10th inning and hit his second triple of the season. Salas is hitting .395/.469/.791 in July with seven extra-base hits and 14 RBIs.

 

There’s also a huge flame out rate. These guys are signed every year and tons of them never make it. Yet the league is full of guys who signed for peanuts floating around the league on most teams. I just don’t know if it’s the greatest use of resources. Sure if you have the money to throw at some kid do it. It’s rarely worth but I guess you really only need to hit lighting in bottle once every decade or so.

[Laika]

Painter needs TJS...

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2678950

 

They dicked around and lost an entire extra year. Poor kid.

 

If he had the surgery in spring when he first blew out his elbow he could have been on the mound early 2024 in the majors at this time in 2024. But now he will lose all of 2023 and 2024

[Terminator]

Buffalo has a shitload of "guys" this year.

 

Legit Prospects

Orelvis Martinez

Addison Barger

Davis Schneider

 

Fringe Prospects

Spencer Horwitz

Otto Lopez

 

Mildly Interesting Vet

Ernie Clement

 

Potential Defensive Specialists

Luis De Los Santos

Cam Eden (38 for 40 on SBA)

 

Whatever This Guy Is

Rafael Lantigua

 

This would be a dream scenario for a small market contender. For us it will still come in handy with 3B, 2B and the bench spots wide open next year. Though I suspect we will see some trades with some of the guys on this list.

[Terminator]

Zach Thompson (that 29 year old SP we got from the Pirates this past offseason) started the year horribly but has a 2.01 ERA in his 7 starts since the start of June. 31 Ks to 11 BBs in 34.1 innings pitched.

[Brownie19]

Remember when there was a legitimate case for Otto Lopez to be our 25th man and get his shot at the ML level? Instead he's rocking a 60 wRC+ in AAA. Otto was so f***ing productive, while being age appropriate - until he hit AAA.

[Terminator]

Remember when there was a legitimate case for Otto Lopez to be our 25th man and get his shot at the ML level? Instead he's rocking a 60 wRC+ in AAA. Otto was so f***ing productive, while being age appropriate - until he hit AAA.

 

Yeah he has definitely slowed down in AAA. For some reason he got off to a horrid start this year. He played well in the WBC and Buffalo had awful weather with a bunch of cancellations to start the year. Not sure if that played a factor or not but here is his triple slash line by month:

 

April: .160/.203/.240

May: .290/.368/.316

June: .280/.316/.344

July: .289/.333/.489

 

So maybe he'll still be a bench piece but anything beyond that seems like a dream at this point.

[L54]

Painter needs TJS...

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2678950

 

So dumb. He should’ve had the surgery at the start of the year. Why even mess around with a guy with zero service time? Get the surgery and lick your wounds. TJS has like a 97% success rate - there’s really no risk just the time aspect

[Daniel Labude]

 

 

97.3 MPH, 29 LA, 364 FT

 

 

This HR was from Sunday, technically his 7th including yesterday. Stats wiped out from rain. Absolutely love his load and swing. The in-game power seems to be developing with better timing and getting use to AA pitching. Better plate discipline to follow. Great bat to ball skills

[Stangstag]

Remember when there was a legitimate case for Otto Lopez to be our 25th man and get his shot at the ML level? Instead he's rocking a 60 wRC+ in AAA. Otto was so f***ing productive, while being age appropriate - until he hit AAA.

 

He looked great in the WBC too. Not sure what happened

[Stangstag]

This HR was from Sunday, technically his 7th including yesterday. Stats wiped out from rain. Absolutely love his load and swing. The in-game power seems to be developing with better timing and getting use to AA pitching. Better plate discipline to follow. Great bat to ball skills

 

This shouldn’t be a thing at any level, in any sport, ever. Period. How stupid.

[Brownie19]

This HR was from Sunday, technically his 7th including yesterday. Stats wiped out from rain. Absolutely love his load and swing. The in-game power seems to be developing with better timing and getting use to AA pitching. Better plate discipline to follow. Great bat to ball skills

 

This shouldn’t be a thing at any level, in any sport, ever. Period. How stupid.

 

It does? His ISO in A+ ball was .137

[Daniel Labude]

It does? His ISO in A+ ball was .137

 

3 HRs in last 11 Gs +1 AB at AA

[metafour]

There’s also a huge flame out rate. These guys are signed every year and tons of them never make it. Yet the league is full of guys who signed for peanuts floating around the league on most teams. I just don’t know if it’s the greatest use of resources. Sure if you have the money to throw at some kid do it. It’s rarely worth but I guess you really only need to hit lighting in bottle once every decade or so.

 

Again, it's really not different from the Draft at all. Why spend $7 mill on Austin Martin when Santiago Espinal signed for $50,000 as a 10th round pick? You are going to have flame outs regardless, the only difference is that the Draft is a bit 'safer' because the players selected are 17-22 as opposed to 16 years old.

 

If you look at the current Fangraphs top prospects list, most of the best prospects who came via IFA are still the high-priced ones (I'm using FG because they conveniently include signing bonuses as a data field):

 

#3 Eury Perez - $200K

#4 Elly De La Cruz - $65K

#8 Jackson Chourio - $1.9 mill

#10 Francisco Alvarez - $2.7 mill

#12 Adael Amador - $1.5 mill

#17 Endy Rodríguez - $10K

#18 Luis Matos - $725K

#22 Diego Cartaya - $2.5 mill

#28 Curtis Mead - $200K

#39 Junior Caminero - ???

#44 Oswald Peraza - $175K

#45 Ezequiel Tovar - $800K

 

Keep in mind that only a few dozen guys get $1+ mill signing bonuses per year (I think the most recent class had 31 total who received 7-figure bonuses), whereas lots more sign "for peanuts". So from the above example, 4 out of 12 being 7-figure signees is actually a pretty high success rate (Matos and Tovar are flirting with 7-figures as well at $725 and $800K). Our #1 IFA prospect (Orelvis Martinez) was also obviously a high-priced IFA signee as well.

 

It's not "rarely worth it", it is incredibly worth it. One success (eg: Vlad Guerrero who has been worth ~$75 mill to date) covers basically every complete flop over a decade by himself.

[Daniel Labude]

[hanton]

Buffalo has a shitload of "guys" this year.

 

Legit Prospects

Orelvis Martinez

Addison Barger

Davis Schneider

 

Fringe Prospects

Spencer Horwitz

Otto Lopez

 

Mildly Interesting Vet

Ernie Clement

 

Potential Defensive Specialists

Luis De Los Santos

Cam Eden (38 for 40 on SBA)

 

Whatever This Guy Is

Rafael Lantigua

 

This would be a dream scenario for a small market contender. For us it will still come in handy with 3B, 2B and the bench spots wide open next year. Though I suspect we will see some trades with some of the guys on this list.

 

Need to start challenging some of these players with a promotion to the majors, of course based on performance but also sometimes based on age

[wamco]

We’ll see who is left in 10 days

[max silver]

Need to start challenging some of these players with a promotion to the majors, of course based on performance but also sometimes based on age

 

I'd like to eventually see a spot opened up at AAA for Leo Jiminez as he's been having a very solid season in AA New Hampshire. With Schneider/Barger/Orelvis all ahead of him there isn't a lot of space though.

[wamco]

He’s the only one that will stick at ss though so he’ll get his chance

[Terminator]

With the trade deadline coming up in 10 days a couple of those guys might not be here anymore which would allow for some reshuffling.

[Terminator]

And yeah I forgot Leo Giminez.

 

Legit Prospects

Orelvis Martinez

Addison Barger

Davis Schneider

 

Fringe Prospects

Spencer Horwitz

Otto Lopez

Leo Gimenez

 

Mildly Interesting Vet

Ernie Clement

 

Potential Defensive Specialists

Luis De Los Santos

Cam Eden (38 for 40 on SBA too)

 

Whatever This Guy Is

Rafael Lantigua

[Olerud363]

Need to start challenging some of these players with a promotion to the majors, of course based on performance but also sometimes based on age

 

Barger, Horwitz, Scheider, Martinez, Roden and Jiminez are a nice pool of players to partially replace Whit/Merrifield/Kiemaier and Belt with. Sign a couple of vets too of course.

 

Formula for the 89 to 93 teams and 2015 team was just that. Use pool of minor leaguers to fill spots and let them compete, supplement with vets.

[spats]

 

Good outing for Ricky today..2 innings, no hits ,no walks, 3 k's.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Finally some Ricky Tiedemann updates again

[keggy]

And yeah I forgot Leo Giminez.

 

Legit Prospects

Orelvis Martinez

Addison Barger

Davis Schneider

 

Fringe Prospects

Spencer Horwitz

Otto Lopez

Leo Gimenez

 

Mildly Interesting Vet

Ernie Clement

 

Potential Defensive Specialists

Luis De Los Santos

Cam Eden (38 for 40 on SBA too)

 

Whatever This Guy Is

Rafael Lantigua

 

Jimenez is absolutely a legit prospect.

[metafour]

Enmanuel Bonilla with by far his best game of the season:

 

4 for 5, 2 3B, 1 2B, 1 K