The Blue Jays Picked the Right Player To Give a Huge Contract this Offseason

This offseason, Toronto signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. The addition gave the team a front-end pitcher to pair with Kevin Gausman (who was later traded to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline). The signing drew scrutiny, as Cease wasn't coming off a strong season. He finished 2025 with a 4.55 ERA and a league-average 1.33 WHIP, but he had 215 strikeouts. He had also been known to struggle with control, with a 10 percent walk rate over a seven-year career.

However, Cease has been a grand slam signing. He’s currently in the Cy Young talk with a 2.42 ERA over 137 2/3 innings and leads the AL in strikeouts (201). It’s the sixth season in a row that he has exceeded 200 strikeouts, although his walk rate (10.7 percent) is a smidge higher than his career average. The fireballer continues to show his durability as well, with him on pace to extend his five-season streak of exceeding 165 innings.

If you look at Cease's Baseball Savant profile, I hope you like the color red because he ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in 11 statistics, with seven of those in at least the 95th. His immense success proves that Cease has been worth every penny this season. The Blue Jays have further confirmation that they spent big on the right player, at least in year one.

Before games on August 19, Spotrac stated that of the 19 players who signed a $40 million contract or higher this past winter, Cease has the highest fWAR (4.8). He's not even close to the second-highest mark, Pete Alonso's 3.5. The Orioles' first baseman's fWAR rating has seen a massive increase amid a hot August, in which he is slashing .365/.437/.683.

The two names sandwiching Cease on the list by total contract amount, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, both drew interest from the Blue Jays over the offseason. Bregman has a 3.3 fWAR rating, partially due to his strong defensive season; he ranks second among 45 eligible third basemen with six outs above average. Offensively, the third baseman has struggled, posting some of the worst statistics of his 11-year career. 

Bregman is slashing .255/.345/.404 this season with a substantial decrease in the power department. He's posted a .749 OPS and .149 ISO, which are both the worst of his career. Even though the Cubs' third baseman is struggling offensively, he's not the biggest surprise between him and Tucker. 

The Dodgers' right fielder is struggling all over the field. He's having his worst season offensively since his 2018 cup of coffee and his worst defensive season ever, with a -9.9 Def rating on FanGraphs. Tucker's outs above average is a career-low -9, ranking last among 37 eligible right fielders. His current 0.3 fWAR is a drastic difference from Cease's 4.8.

Calling Tucker's season a disaster may be too kind, as Dodgers fans are booing him at home. He snapped an 0-for-26 streak at the plate on August 18 and has a 60 wRC+ at home, compared to 126 on the road. After Tucker grounded out against a Colorado Rockies position player, the Dodgers' broadcasters shared their feelings about his struggles. They suggested that he needs a reset, even if that means going to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Obviously, no one can predict how Tucker's season would have played out in Toronto, but surely it couldn't have been worse, right? 

However, knowing the Blue Jays were reportedly close to acquiring him, it feels great knowing they don't have $240 million tied up in a struggling bat and glove. Things could be different next season, but this season, Toronto has enough offensive issues, even though they've had a spark since the trade deadline. 

Bo Bichette was a candidate to be re-signed after a resurgence last season. The decision not to pursue him has turned out to be the right move, though. He has a 1.8 fWAR due to a slightly below-average offensive season; he has posted the second-lowest ISO (.121) of his eight-year career. The infielder's defense has been an issue throughout his career, but this season, he ranks 12th among third basemen with two outs above average. However, he has a -2 rating in the games he has played at shortstop for the Mets.

It's safe to say the Blue Jays have won the battle of major signings for one season. Let's see how the remainder of these contracts play out and who gets added to the list after the 2026 campaign, though tension over the collective bargaining agreement may lead to an unusual offseason.