Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

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Some fap material from Callis.

[Cbert]

Because this board is stat-scouting and fapping all over him, but it doesn't appear that anybody in the industry thinks he's that significant of a prospect.

 

Fair point, but you gotta think a catching prospect that rakes at three different levels over a year and is still only 22 will start turning some heads in the industry.

[Dr. Dinger]

Fair point, but you gotta think a catching prospect that rakes at three different levels over a year and is still only 22 will start turning some heads in the industry.

 

His ceiling is probably something like average regular, just don't go getting your hopes up. He could be a useful player but it's very unlikely that he's anything more than that.

[Cbert]

His ceiling is probably something like average regular, just don't go getting your hopes up. He could be a useful player but it's very unlikely that he's anything more than that.

 

Oh yeah for sure. Lots of top prospects flame out completely. I'd be ecstatic if he became an average starting catcher for dirt cheap. I've just been wondering if he's done enough this year to get some notice from writers and scouts.

[Laika]

Oh yeah for sure. Lots of top prospects flame out completely. I'd be ecstatic if he became an average starting catcher for dirt cheap. I've just been wondering if he's done enough this year to get some notice from writers and scouts.

 

If you want to be optimistic you can probably comp him to Austin Barnes, who:

 

- was older

- always hit in the minors

- never really got prospectus love

- is good at baseball

[Cbert]

If you want to be optimistic you can probably comp him to Austin Barnes, who:

 

- was older

- always hit in the minors

- never really got prospectus love

- is good at baseball

 

I'd be more than happy with that! If Bichette and Guerrero can become studs at the MLB level, hopefully guys like Alford, Jansen and Gurriel can just become good everyday players. Wish I could say the same for our pitching prospects!

[Dr. Dinger]

Multiple Danny Jansen questions in Logenhagen's chat today. I'd post a link, but I assume the people asking those questions are already in this thread.

[Mikeleelop]

His ceiling is probably something like average regular, just don't go getting your hopes up. He could be a useful player but it's very unlikely that he's anything more than that.

 

that would be a significant upgrade over what the Jays have been trotting out there this year....

[Dr. Dinger]

Danny Jansen, C, Toronto AL (Profile)

Level: Triple-A Age: 22 Org Rank: NR Top 100: NR

Line: 4-for-4, 2 HR, 3B

 

Notes

Jansen hadn’t played much before this year, never exceeding more than 57 games in a single season until this one. He also hasn’t hit. Jansen hit .218 last year and .210 the year before and while his peripherals have been intriguing (Chris Mitchell had him as one of KATOH’s sleeper’s), Jansen was relatively unimpressive in his 2017 Fall League stint, showing what I evaluated as fringe bat speed and a swing path that would limit the amount of impact contact he’d make. This year, he’s been incredible, hitting .341/.418/.516 across three levels while striking out in less then 10% of his plate appearances. If there’s been a mechanical change, it’s subtle as all I’ve gotten from scouts with a history scouting Jansen is that his leg kick is a bit bigger and more exaggerated this season. Jansen is a solid defensive catcher, an average receiver with an average arm and a good ground game.

[Cbert]

Thanks for the heads up! Went and checked out his chat. I was about to post that prospect note, too.

 

He also linked to a Sportsnet article that was posted today:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-danny-jansen-keeps-hitting-every-stop-whirlwind-season/

 

Interesting read. I got glasses around the age of 13 and it was an unbelievable difference on the diamond. Hopefully that was all he needed.

 

Side note: Which baseball guys do people on here follow? I keep tabs on prospects throughout the org but want to broaden my horizons to other teams, as well. Thanks!

[Ray]

DJ Neal just had a 5 hit game. 5-for-6.

[John_Havok]

Thanks for the heads up! Went and checked out his chat. I was about to post that prospect note, too.

 

He also linked to a Sportsnet article that was posted today:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-danny-jansen-keeps-hitting-every-stop-whirlwind-season/

 

Interesting read. I got glasses around the age of 13 and it was an unbelievable difference on the diamond. Hopefully that was all he needed.

 

Side note: Which baseball guys do people on here follow? I keep tabs on prospects throughout the org but want to broaden my horizons to other teams, as well. Thanks!

 

Dammit, if the MLB hears about his PEG use (performance enhancing glasses), they'll be banned in the next CBA.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Callis a few weeks ago said that Vlad Sr and Jr could be the first father/son in the HofF.........I know that's a bit over the top but still

it's great to see some "informed" people are that high on VGJr

Edited August 23, 2017 by Virgil_Hiltz

[John_Havok]

Jays had 3 minor league offensive players of the week last week.

 

C Reese McGuire, Eastern League - .533/.588/1.200, 4 G, 8-for-15, 1 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 K

 

3B Vlad Jr, Florida State League - .462/.516/.923, 7 G, 12/26, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 4 R, 4 BB, 1 IBB, 3 K

 

SS Kevin Smith, Appalachian League - .444/.464/.926, 6 G, 12/27, 7 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 SB

[Brownie19]

Reese McGuire hitting? Wowsers. That is unexpected. I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[John_Havok]

Teoscar with 2 HR tonight.

[gruber92]

If you want to be optimistic you can probably comp him to Austin Barnes, who:

 

- was older

- always hit in the minors

- never really got prospectus love

- is good at baseball

 

I think a Jason Kendall comp might be a bit more accurate.

[gruber92]

Teoscar with 2 HR tonight.

 

With a triple also while going 4/5.

[John_Havok]

With a triple also while going 4/5.

 

2nd night in a row where a Bison needed a double in the 9th inning for the cycle, and hit a HR instead.

 

Jansen did that same thing yesterday

[Captain Adama]

It seems like Jason Kendall is the comp everyone throws around for every catcher that looks like they might hit a bit.

[Brownie19]

It seems like Jason Kendall is the comp everyone throws around for every catcher that looks like they might hit a bit.

 

Jason Kendell was more valuable as a catcher than Yadi Molina's been. I think we'd all be ecstatic if Jansen was 1/2 the catcher Kendell was.

[Orgfiller]

Jason Kendell was more valuable as a catcher than Yadi Molina's been. I think we'd all be ecstatic if Jansen was 1/2 the catcher Kendell was.

 

I don't quite remember, but he was also either an elite framer or an awful one, pretty sure he was on one of the extremes. So that either made him that much more valuable or a lot less.

[Olerud363]

Because this board is stat-scouting and fapping all over him, but it doesn't appear that anybody in the industry thinks he's that significant of a prospect.

 

The problem isn't just 'stat-scouting', it's bad 'stat-scouting'. A good 'stat-scout' will look at his entire record and avoid putting too much weight an anecdotes and observations, good stat-scouts just look at the stats.

 

Right now people, are looking at his 2017 stats only, and justifying that by the narrative that his glasses fixed things. So they actually aren't stats-scouting.

 

His k/bb has always been good (about 1-1), but his numbers have bounced around. He's never had more than 200 at bats, with one team in one year. So looking at his stats line, you see .210s, and .340s, and it looks like a pattern.

 

A good stats scout would acknowledge it could be random and just go by his career line (.270 .360 .400 or so).

 

Interestingly, if you look at his level by level numbers they are a bit more consistent.... telling the story of a guy who had a bit of bad luck in low A, and is super-hot in AAA right now, but basically has consistent numbers as he moved up each level...

 

LEVEL G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS GO/AO

AAA 13 40 8 19 34 4 1 3 8 8 0 2 0 0 .475 .563 .850 1.413 0.90

AA 52 179 23 52 75 15 1 2 20 22 2 19 1 0 .291 .378 .419 .797 1.05

A(Adv) 85 310 37 86 117 13 0 6 41 30 0 54 7 1 .277 .355 .377 .733 0.73

A(Full) 46 160 19 33 53 8 0 4 27 19 0 22 2 0 .206 .299 .331 .630 0.70

ROK 84 268 45 70 103 15 0 6 40 40 0 34 2 1 .261 .372 .384 .756 1.01

[TheHurl]

I don't quite remember, but he was also either an elite framer or an awful one, pretty sure he was on one of the extremes. So that either made him that much more valuable or a lot less.

 

bottom. But the majority of his career were not tracked. A broken ankle and damage to the knees has to hurt the framing.

[TheHurl]

A good stats scout would acknowledge it could be random and just go by his career line (.270 .360 .400 or so).

 

So never acknowledge a change in talent or improvement? With Jansen there are two factors for not taking too much stock in his early numbers.

 

1. Injuries to the hands (2015 and 2016)

2. Wisconsin (his prep years were spent in a region where he would not have faced very good pitching)

 

I'm not ready to anoint him a starter or even a major leaguer but I think you have to look at this year as great progression.

[Cbert]

I think the career line does show that there is potential there, but I also believe he has taken a step forward this year and that realistically, his potential is somewhere between this year and his career so far.

 

It seems small but the fact that he got glasses this year and then got hot for pretty much the entire year can't be a complete coincidence. If his vision was just slightly worse than 20/20, then that might've been the difference between seeing the spin on pitches and not seeing them.

 

I'm not trying to hype this guy up as a future HOF'er or anything, but I do think there's a realistic chance he becomes an everyday guy that can contribute on both sides of the ball.

[Pendleton]

Even if he can reach a quality backup/fringe starter type level, that would make him the best young catcher this organization has developed from within in quite some time (unless I'm forgetting someone).

 

Given what we've seen from our backup catchers this season, I think we should all be quite content if Jansen becomes a solid backup to Martin in the near future.

[Dr. Dinger]

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:12[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Jay: If you’re the Blue Jays, do you A) Sign Donaldson to an extension this offseason, Trade him for prospects this offseason, or C) Go to arbitration and try to deal him at next years deadline if you are out of contention?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:12[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dave Cameron: I’d trade him. Especially now that it doesn’t look entirely unreasonable that Vlad Jr. could be big league ready next summer.

 

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:52[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]King T: Who do you think will be the #1 prospect overall going into next season?

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:52[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dave Cameron: Vlad Jr.

 

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[TD=class: chat_time, bgcolor: #CECECE]12:53[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dave Cameron: Acuna is making a pretty legit case, but I’d bet Vlad ends up on top in most every ranking.

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[Laika]

That's why Donaldson is getting SS reps, obviously. It's not to get Aoki's bat into the lineup haha.

 

Question is would Tulo be fine at 2B? That's an awful alignment of course. It would only be palatable as a sometimes or short term thing

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't see Josh Donaldson and Vlad ever wearing a Jays uni at the same time during an MLB game.