Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[John_Havok]

Baltimore had the best bullpen in baseball last year. They are an elite baserunning team as you mentioned. They don't micromanage SP matchups like the Rays and Blue Jays do. All of these factors contribute to outperforming your Pythagorean record.

 

Just checking your logic here since the Jays SP threw more innings than the Orioles SP did.

 

Its easy to think "that other team does do this" when you dont watch them everyday. THey did the exact same stuff, just as often and even slightly more. The only difference was they had 2 guys at the backend that were as close to automatic as you could get. They micromanaged the hell out of the gap from when the SP left and when Cano/Bautista took over.

 

# of relievers used by Baltimore in 2023 = 26

# of relievers used by Toronto in 2023 = 19

 

# of relievers used by Baltimore who threw 10 innings or less on the season = 11

# of relievers used by Toronto who threw 10 innings or less on the season = 4

 

# of relievers used by Baltimore and Toronto who threw 50+ innings = 5 each.

 

Both teams had 5 primary relievers that got the most innings. Orioles RP threw more innings on the year 575 to 557 for the Jays

 

Seems your hypothesis of the Jays being "guilty" of micromanaging the pen more than Baltimore is clearly false.

 

As for "best bullpen in baseball".... Orioles Relievers stats K/9 - 9.6, BB/9 3.3, xFIP 3.94 LOB 72.4% Jays k/9 9.8, BB/9 3.2, xFIP 3.99, LOB 74.7%.

 

Differences were mainly the ground ball rates and HR rates. Orioles RP threw 4% more ground balls, and gave up 2.5% fewer HR per flyball. Not exactly massive differences between the "best pen in baseball" and the Jays is there?

They're not some juggernaut.

[Brownie19]

I'm not even sure I understand why he thinks that "NOT micromanaging SP matchups" contributes to outperforming your Pythagorean record.

[Laika]

it's okay guys, different generations

[Terminator]

[max silver]

 

I suspect we are going to be seeing more and more of these types of stories as more minor league pitchers choose to spend their entire offseasons working out of the player development complex.

[P2F]

 

Sounds like Scotty is pouring himself a tall one.

[Laika]

I'm a bit weirded out with Tiedeman's fastball shape.

 

14.7 IVB with -13 horizontal break.

 

It's got two seamer run but average four seamer rise. Is that good or bad? Is that weird?

 

Feels like something RHB will smash in certain locations

 

Kinda hoping his release point was off today and it his slightly different movement normally

[RustyTrombone]

I'm a bit weirded out with Tiedeman's fastball shape.

 

14.7 IVB with -13 horizontal break.

 

It's got two seamer run but average four seamer rise. Is that good or bad? Is that weird?

 

Feels like something RHB will smash in certain locations

 

Kinda hoping his release point was off today and it his slightly different movement normally

 

This would have just been called a fastball with run back in the day. It better to have that horizontal movement with mid IVB than just mid IVB. His velo, horizontal movement, low release height, above average horizontal release are all above average characteristics of his fastball. I wouldnt be worried at all that he doesnt have good rise, there are plenty of other things that make his fastball a really good pitch.

[Laika]

This would have just been called a fastball with run back in the day. It better to have that horizontal movement with mid IVB than just mid IVB. His velo, horizontal movement, low release height, above average horizontal release are all above average characteristics of his fastball. I wouldnt be worried at all that he doesnt have good rise, there are plenty of other things that make his fastball a really good pitch.

 

Yeah it's GOOD, it just might be a vulnerability in specific places against righties as the horizontal movement is not as helpful. He should be complete death to LHB though

[keggy]

I'm not even sure I understand why he thinks that "NOT micromanaging SP matchups" contributes to outperforming your Pythagorean record.

 

Because it applies mean aggregated data to a unique scenario.

 

Using in-game data (performance, velo, whatever) correctly can allow you to outperform your expected value. Using aggregated data (lifetime performance against LHH or whatever) and ignoring in-game data would would do the exact opposite.

 

I'm not explaining well, but it's the same reason a good poker player can make more money than the expected value dictated by his dealt cards. A poker player who follows 100% textbook strategy without using any additional information should earn his expected value over a large number of trials.

[WryNGinger]

It's going to be awesome to watch the Spring Breakout game next Saturday on Sportsnet. 1st chance to see Arjun Nimmala in a game situation for me. Hoping Berriera and Macko see an inning or two as well.

[John_Havok]

I'm a bit weirded out with Tiedeman's fastball shape.

 

14.7 IVB with -13 horizontal break.

 

It's got two seamer run but average four seamer rise. Is that good or bad? Is that weird?

 

Feels like something RHB will smash in certain locations

 

Kinda hoping his release point was off today and it his slightly different movement normally

 

Could be why Savant was having trouble classifying it. That arm slot and release certainly adds a layer of deception that probably allows it to play up?

[Laika]

Could be why Savant was having trouble classifying it. That arm slot and release certainly adds a layer of deception that probably allows it to play up?

 

Yeah I was looking at movement data for comparables. It was a coinflip whether they were labeled FF or SI.

 

Some positive comparables from good relievers. Strahm, Chapman, Alvarado, Gregory Soto. Couple bad comps from starters, Ryan Weathers and Matthew Liberatore, but their velo was a tick lower.

 

I was just eyeballing for plus or better velo, IVB or like 14 to 16, and horizontal break or 12 or more

[MikeM3]

He can't get ivb from that slot but he probably has good vaa

[deanmike]

[Eat My Shatkins]

High hopes for those two.

 

Really need them to lead the next wave and it would sure be nice if they could hold their current positions up the middle of the diamond

[Spanky99]

High hopes for those two.

 

Really need them to lead the next wave and it would sure be nice if they could hold their current positions up the middle of the diamond

 

They're so far away, we need others to step up or breakout.

[deanmike]

 

Some BA notes on Maroudis and Barriera

[John Balkabella]

Really disappointing on Barriera’s velo.

 

Damn, the Jays have a hard time developing starters.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Really disappointing on Barriera’s velo.

 

Damn, the Jays have a hard time developing starters.

 

Luckily they seem to have no issue signing quality starters and also fixing starters that they pull off the scrap heap.

[Daniel Labude]

Really disappointing on Barriera’s velo.

 

Damn, the Jays have a hard time developing starters.

 

Barriera's velo has been good and at times great this spring. Nothing to worry about

[Daniel Labude]

Tiedemann looked solid today. Got 10 whiffs. Weather was super cold

[John Balkabella]

Luckily they seem to have no issue signing quality starters and also fixing starters that they pull off the scrap heap.

 

Yeah, I know. Ross has a great sense of who to sign and when, and in the case of Ray, when to let them go. Full points.

 

From a business model POV, though, that might not be sustainable. Jays have to spend gobs of money on FA starters every year, and other what was the lightening flash of Manoah, it impacts every other part of the team.

 

Here’s hoping for Ricky.

[wamco]

Tiedemann looked solid today. Got 10 whiffs. Weather was super cold

 

Only 65 pitches for Dragon today, I was afraid he got hurt initially

 

Meanwhile eisert is getting his tits ripped at the moment .2 ip 7r b4 he got the hook

[Laika]

Barriera's velo has been good and at times great this spring. Nothing to worry about

 

Yeah

 

Be worried in June if it's still low 90s

[MikeM3]

Norfolk Tides have a mlb lineup

[deanmike]

 

Some Fernando Perez info

[wamco]

Tanner Morris traded to twins

[Terminator]

Yariel Rodriguez is dealing in Buffalo today. Perfect through 3 innings with 5 Ks.

[John_Havok]

Yariel Rodriguez is dealing in Buffalo today. Perfect through 3 innings with 5 Ks.

 

Nice. I have it on good authority though from sportsnet comments sections that Yariel was signed to be a swingman at best, so these good starts in Buffalo will be great prep for that role.