Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Sorrow]

After Brandon Barriera last year, I want to see this 19lbs for myself.

 

Barriers also did 50lbs from draft to spring training which is crazy lol, but a bad crazy.

[Eat My Shatkins]

19 lbs of muscle on Tiedemann?

 

Over what time period? That's way too much weight to put on naturally since the end of the season

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah no way it's actually 19lbs of "pure muscle" lol. The Body can put on like a half pound of muscle mass per week. But some extra weight might not be a bad thing, if they think it will add durability. Usually more mass= more velocity.

[Stangstag]

Yeah no way it's actually 19lbs of "pure muscle" lol. The Body can put on like a half pound of muscle mass per week. But some extra weight might not be a bad thing, if they think it will add durability. Usually more mass= more velocity.

 

This happens every spring. Most reporters have 0 idea how working out actually works.

 

Dude bulks up 30 lbs: “He gained 30 pounds of muscle!”

 

Lol

[burlingtonbandit]

This happens every spring. Most reporters have 0 idea how working out actually works.

 

Dude bulks up 30 lbs: “He gained 30 pounds of muscle!”

 

Lol

 

I know its so annoying lol. And you hear it every spring....

[max silver]

This happens every spring. Most reporters have 0 idea how working out actually works.

 

Dude bulks up 30 lbs: “He gained 30 pounds of muscle!”

 

Lol

 

This isn't the reporter making things up as Tiedemann himself stated that he was tested using a DEXA scan and it showed that he had gained 19 pounds of muscle. It seems that lean body mass and muscle mass are often used interchangeably, but I don't think it's out of the question for a young elite athlete to add 19 lean pounds (muscle/glycogen/water) over a 6 month offseason.

[burlingtonbandit]

This isn't the reporter making things up as Tiedemann himself stated that he was tested using a DEXA scan and it showed that he had gained 19 pounds of muscle. It seems that lean body mass and muscle mass are often used interchangeably, but I don't think it's out of the question for a young elite athlete to add 19 lean pounds (muscle/glycogen/water) over a 6 month offseason.

 

Unless he's taking steroids no way he gained 19 pounds of muscle lol. For people who already weight train (which I'm sure he did) its much tougher to put on lean muscle mass, so a half pound a week is more what you should aim for.

 

Also 6 month offseason? He finished the AFL in October...

[max silver]

Unless he's taking steroids no way he gained 19 pounds of muscle lol. For people who already weight train (which I'm sure he did) its much tougher to put on lean muscle mass, so a half pound a week is more what you should aim for.

 

Also 6 month offseason? He finished the AFL in October...

 

From a glance it appears as though a Dexa scan measures lean tissue. If I recall correctly each pound of muscle also holds 2-3 pounds of water and glycogen, so it's not outside the realm of possibility he added something like 5 pounds of actual muscle and the corresponding 13-14 pounds of water+glycogen.

[burlingtonbandit]

From a glance it appears as though a Dexa scan measures lean tissue. If I recall correctly each pound of muscle also holds 2-3 pounds of water and glycogen, so it's not outside the realm of possibility he added something like 5 pounds of actual muscle and the corresponding 13-14 pounds of water+glycogen.

 

Yeah that makes more sense. Even if there is some extra fat in there, not necessarily a bad thing, Sanchez put on a bunch of weight IIRC and did pretty well back in 2016.

 

I was rolling my eyes at the "insert MLB player gaining 25 LBS of muscle" comment.

[Laika]

Bizarre trade tonight.

 

Padres drafted Blake Dickerson in 2023 and signed him for $500k. They just traded him to the a tigers for $500k in international pool money.

[Pendleton]

Bizarre trade tonight.

 

Padres drafted Blake Dickerson in 2023 and signed him for $500k. They just traded him to the a tigers for $500k in international pool money.

 

Had yet to even make his pro debut, that is a weird move

[BatFlip]

From a glance it appears as though a Dexa scan measures lean tissue. If I recall correctly each pound of muscle also holds 2-3 pounds of water and glycogen, so it's not outside the realm of possibility he added something like 5 pounds of actual muscle and the corresponding 13-14 pounds of water+glycogen.

 

There can be temporary water/glyocogen retention of that level for inflammation, creatine etc., but you don't just gain 14 pounds of water from 5lbs of muscle gain unless his super power is water bloat. It's far more likely that it's the other way around, and 12-14 lbs of muscle gain with some additional water weight.

 

It's definitely not out of the question for a young athlete with good genetics who hasn't been heavily weight training during the previous season to gain that kind of muscle during a relatively short off-season (4-5 months).

[L54]

If 19 pounds comes from end of season weight to Spring Training weight that isn’t as drastic as it sounds. I don’t know what an MLB player would lose over the course of a season but ten pounds isn’t unreasonable

 

So if player X was 210 lbs at ST 2023, finished the season at 200 lbs and came into ST 2024 at 219 he could have technically gained 19 lbs but the reality is it’s closer to 10 when you look year over year

[BatFlip]

If 19 pounds comes from end of season weight to Spring Training weight that isn’t as drastic as it sounds. I don’t know what an MLB player would lose over the course of a season but ten pounds isn’t unreasonable

 

So if player X was 210 lbs at ST 2023, finished the season at 200 lbs and came into ST 2024 at 219 he could have technically gained 19 lbs but the reality is it’s closer to 10 when you look year over year

 

 

Yup, quite likely a lot of leaner players lose some weight through a season and the body will pack that mass back on in a hurry when focused on weight training/eating/resting right during off-season.

[max silver]

If 19 pounds comes from end of season weight to Spring Training weight that isn’t as drastic as it sounds. I don’t know what an MLB player would lose over the course of a season but ten pounds isn’t unreasonable

 

So if player X was 210 lbs at ST 2023, finished the season at 200 lbs and came into ST 2024 at 219 he could have technically gained 19 lbs but the reality is it’s closer to 10 when you look year over year

 

According to Tiedemann he arrived at spring training at 225 last season vs 240 this season.

[Stangstag]

According to Tiedemann he arrived at spring training at 225 last season vs 240 this season.

 

He does not look anything close to 240

[Spanky__99]

He does not look anything close to 240

 

He's a big guy, and doubt he's lying.

[L54]

Yup, quite likely a lot of leaner players lose some weight through a season and the body will pack that mass back on in a hurry when focused on weight training/eating/resting right during off-season.

 

For sure. Putting mass back on does happen relatively quickly almost like muscle memory. Adding mass is the more difficult part

[L54]

According to Tiedemann he arrived at spring training at 225 last season vs 240 this season.

 

6’4 240 is a fudging unit

[Spanky__99]

He's also only 21, 6'4" and lanky... a few months of squats and deadlifts and he could put that on easily.

 

He was lanky 2 years ago.

[Spanky__99]

6’4 240 is a fudging unit

 

Yeah, he's ready to shove this season...

[deanmike]

 

Since he's still got rookie status, maybe it belongs in this thread but I also put it in the general thread

[Stangstag]

 

Since he's still got rookie status, maybe it belongs in this thread but I also put it in the general thread

 

I don’t think its true that he has rookie status. He’s under the PA allowance but he was on the 26-man roster for too many days

[Spanky__99]

I don’t think its true that he has rookie status. He’s under the PA allowance but he was on the 26-man roster for too many days

 

That's not how it works.

[Stangstag]

That's not how it works.

 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility#

 

He was on the active roster over 45 days therefore he doesn’t qualify for rookie status

[Spanky__99]

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility#

 

He was on the active roster over 45 days therefore he doesn’t qualify for rookie status

 

Thanks, I didn't know or forgot about that. I let Black, know.

[The_DH]

every spring there's a break out prospect. Schneider and/or Barger would be great for me.

[Spanky__99]

every spring there's a break out prospect. Schneider and/or Barger would be great for me.

 

There's always guys that jump big or dive. It's clockwork.

[Spanky__99]

My guy this season...

 

ARTICLEMINORS

Understanding His Swing Is Next Step For Astros’ Jacob Melton

February 19, 2024

February 19, 2024

Jose De Jesus Ortiz

0 Comments

 

 

 

Jacob Melton’s hitting ability is the first thing that stood out when Astros farm director Jacob Buffa saw him play for Oregon State.

 

Melton is more than a hitter, though.

 

The Astros envision the 6-foot-3, 208-pound Melton as a big league center fielder, and that’s where the 23-year-old is likely to see most of his playing time this season.

 

“I saw (Melton’s) swing in college,” Buffa said of the 2022 second-rounder. “My first thought was, ‘Wow this kid can hit.’ If you look at what he did in college, that’s got to be your first thought.

 

“When I saw him in person when he first got here, my first thought was that this kid is a far better athlete than I thought.”

 

Melton has steadily climbed the minor league ladder after signing. He reached Double-A Corpus Christi late last season after playing primarily for High-A Asheville. In 99 total games he hit .245/.334/.467 with 23 home runs and 46 stolen bases.

 

Melton has put together solid stretches of hitting, but he must now be more consistent at the plate.

 

“I think the big thing is hitters as they get through the system, we’d just love for Melton to start to understand himself a little bit better,” Buffa said. “So when he gets in slumps, he can anchor himself to what he does best.”

 

Melton was a .364 hitter at Oregon State, and he must figure out a way to hit more consistently in pro ball to raise his batting average.

 

“I think the present power is there,” Buffa said. “I feel confident saying that he can slug. We believe he can also hit for average because he’s done it before, which is why I’m most excited for him to understand his own swing.”

 

Once Melton understands how to anchor to the positive attributes of his swing, the Astros are hopeful that he’ll have a better chance to avoid long slumps.

[Spanky__99]

ARTICLEFANTASY

RoboScout’s Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects For 2024

February 13, 2024

February 14, 2024

Dylan White

0 Comments

Orioles third base prospect Coby Mayo during a March spring training at-bat.

Orioles third base prospect Coby Mayo during a March spring training at-bat.

Image credit: Coby Mayo (Photo by Tom DiPace)

 

 

When we put together our Dynasty 700 and the subsequent Top 100 Fantasy Prospects, we mined from our scouting reports and fantasy expertise to put it together. We also had an unsung contribution from RoboScout.

 

A huge part of fantasy baseball involves projections. This makes sense, of course. If you can estimate, as accurately as possible, the potential contribution of a player to your fantasy roster, you can make better informed decisions on how you want to draft your team, build your roster and even make trades. Projections are a necessary ingredient for fantasy success in redraft leagues.

 

Although the cumulative accuracy of projections dissipates as you move further and further into the future, these same principles hold true in a dynasty league. If you can estimate, as accurately as possible, the future (yearly) contributions of a player to your dynasty fantasy roster, you will have an advantage over other leaguemates who are less rigorous in their approach.

 

What is RoboScout?

 

The high-level basis for how projections are created boils down to one simple truism: past performance—despite what the legal disclaimers on your 401(k) may say— are related to future returns. By looking, for example, at the average paired-year performances of hitters and pitchers historically, weighting by sample size, adjusting for survivor bias, one can generate expected age curves with reasonable accuracy of various statistics, such as walk rate (of both hitters and pitchers), strikeout rate (of both hitters and pitchers), ground ball rate (of both hitters and pitchers) and home runs per plate appearance and OPS (of hitters). Given a hitter’s OPS, walk percentage, and strikeout percentage, one can reasonably infer what their batting average is, and so forth.

 

We can apply this same approach to the minor leagues. Take paired-”level” performances of hitters and pitchers historically, one can estimate what a pitcher’s strikeout rate would be in Double-A given that he had, say, a 12% strikeout percentage in High-A. By understanding the expected equivalent performance at a higher level—including MLB—we can thus generate an “expected” major league performance based on a minor leaguer’s performance (after additionally adjusting the statistical performance to the league’s run environment and also from Matt Eddy’s park factors. Now add in the “age curve” calculations from the previous paragraphs to this expected major league projection, and you can estimate what the hitter’s projection would be in his prime performance years.

 

Depending on how deep you wanted to go—for example, incorporating platoon splits, quality-of-competition or deriving independent age curves for different “phylums” of similar hitter archetypes—more granular adjustments can be made.

 

Hitting a home run on opening day does not imply a player will likely finish the season with 162 home runs. Likewise, we also apply regression to more accurately reflect expected season-long performance based on performance from small sample sizes.

 

The final piece to the recipe is minor league Statcast data. Supplementing the performance inputs used in the “projections” for hitters are barrel rate, exit velocity, contact percentage and other metrics that are shown to be correlate to future wRC+. For the pitchers, RoboScout folds in the pitch-level metrics (movement, velocity, etc.) that are inputs into traditional Stuff+ models.