Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Spanky__99]

Left Hand Starters...

 

Rank Player Org FB CB SL CH OTH CTL BA Grade Risk adj

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann Blue Jays 65 — 60 60 55 65 Very High 52.5

 

2. Kyle Harrison Giants 60 — 60 40 50 45 60 High 50

 

3. Robby Snelling Padres 55 60 — 50 60 60 High 50

 

4. Noah Schultz White Sox 65 — 60 55 60 60 Very High 47.5

 

5. DL Hall Orioles 80 60 70 60 30 50 Medium 45

 

6. Robert Gasser Brewers 50 55 45 50 50 50 Medium 45

 

7. Anthony Solometo Pirates 60 60 55 50 55 High 45

 

8. Jordan Wicks Cubs 50 40 50 60 40 55 50 Medium 45

 

9. Carson Whisenhunt Giants 60 40 — 70 55 50 High 40

 

10. Jackson Ferris Cubs 60 60 55 50 40 55 Extreme 40

 

11. Thomas White Marlins 60 60 — 55 45 55 Extreme 40

 

12. Henry Lalane Yankees 60 — 65 60 60 55 Extreme 40

 

13. Brandon Barriera Blue Jays 55 45 65 45 50 55 Extreme 40

 

14. Cooper Hjerpe Cardinals 55 40 50 55 40 50 50 High 40

 

15. Yu-Min Lin D-backs 45 55 50 60 60 50 High

[Spanky__99]

Right Hand Starters...

 

Rank Player Org FB CB SL CH OTH CTL BA Grade Risk

 

1. Paul Skenes Pirates 70 70 60 60 65 High adj

 

2. Andrew Painter Phillies 70 50 60 55 70 70 Extreme 55

 

3. Jackson Jobe Tigers 60 — 70 60 50 60 60 High 55

 

4. Cade Horton Cubs 60 50 65 50 55 60 High 50

 

5. Jacob Misiorowski Brewers 80 60 70 40 40 60 High 50

 

6. Dylan Lesko Padres 70 55 — 70 60 60 Extreme 50

 

7. AJ Smith-Shawver Braves 65 55 60 50 55 55 High 45

 

8. Mason Miller Athletics 70 — 60 50 60 50 55 High 45

 

9. Noble Meyer Marlins 60 — 70 50 55 60 Extreme 45

 

10. Hurston Waldrep Braves 60 — 60 65 40 55 High 45

 

11. Drew Thorpe Padres 50 40 55 60 60 55 High 45

 

12. Bubba Chandler Pirates 60 55 55 50 55 High 45

 

13. Rhett Lowder Reds 55 — 55 60 60 55 High 45

 

14. Chase Dollander Rockies 60 50 60 55 55 55 High 45

 

15. Mick Abel Phillies 70 60 55 60 40 55 High 45

 

16. Shane Baz Rays 70 45 60 50 55 60 Extreme 45

 

17. Chase Hampton Yankees 60 55 55 45 50 45 55 High 45

 

18. Daniel Espino Guardians 80 55 70 50 55 60 Extreme 45

 

19. Jared Jones Pirates 70 50 60 45 45 55 High 45

 

20. Tekoah Roby Cardinals 55 60 50 50 60 60 Extreme 45

 

21. Connor Phillips Reds 60 50 60 30 45 55 High 45

 

22. Luis Morales Athletics 70 55 60 45 50 60 Extreme 45

 

23. Gavin Stone Dodgers 55 — 50 65 55 50 Medium 45

 

24. Tink Hence Cardinals 55 45 50 55 45 55 High 45

 

25. Max Meyer Marlins 55 — 70 55 55 55 High 45

 

26. Christian Scott Mets 60 40 55 50 60 55 High 45

 

27. Kyle Hurt Dodgers 60 50 55 60 45 50 Medium 45

 

28. River Ryan Dodgers 65 55 60 55 45 50 Medium 45

 

29. Chase Petty Reds 50 — 60 55 60 55 High 45

 

30. Nick Nastrini White Sox 65 55 55 50 45 55 High 45

 

31. Owen White Rangers 50 55 55 50 45 45 Low 45

 

32. Cade Cavalli Nationals 70 65 55 55 50 55 Very High 45

 

33. Nick Frasso Dodgers 70 — 60 50 50 55 High 45

 

34. Brock Porter Rangers 60 — 55 60 40 55 Extreme 42.5

 

35. JR Ritchie Braves 55 — 60 50 60 55 Extreme 40

[The_DH]

Does this Brendon Little guy seem like he's on the Robbie Ray track?

[Spanky__99]

70 grade on Langford power, even higher than Wood..... interesting

 

Caissie at 7, kid has put in the work, very raw when drafted

 

The Orioles have a position player at all but CF, lol.

[The_DH]

If Baltimore can buy some pitching they will be something else.

[Krylian]

If Baltimore can buy some pitching they will be something else.

 

They won 101 games last season. They're already something else without pitching.

[Laika]

Does this Brendon Little guy seem like he's on the Robbie Ray track?

 

No?

[RustyTrombone]

They won 101 games last season. They're already something else without pitching.

 

They are not a 100 win talent team. Werent even close last year and arent this year.

[BatFlip]

The Orioles have a position player at all but CF, lol.

 

This was my take-away. Not only do they have a player at almost every position, they have one of the top players at almost every position. Cue sad music.

[Spanky__99]

This was my take-away. Not only do they have a player at almost every position, they have one of the top players at almost every position. Cue sad music.

 

If they don't consolidate some of that into pitching, they're morons.

[deanmike]

They are not a 100 win talent team. Werent even close last year and arent this year.

 

Their pythag record was 95-67 last season, so they only overperformed it by 6 wins, They also had the 5th best pythag record in baseball, with only 3 teams having 100+ win pythag records last season (Braves/Dodgers/Rays). I guess if you consider that "not even close"...

[Spanky__99]

Their pythag record was 95-67 last season, so they only overperformed it by 6 wins, They also had the 5th best pythag record in baseball, with only 3 teams having 100+ win pythag records last season (Braves/Dodgers/Rays). I guess if you consider that "not even close"...

 

94-68, 7 games is a lot bro. The Orioles are a good young team, but it'll be tough to repeat that record. If they get pitching I'll agree they could pull it off again. The East is a beast, no doubt.

[Jimcanuck]

I would not be surprised if the O's eclipse 100 wins again this year, even if the back of the rotation is cobbled together.

[deanmike]

94-68, 7 games is a lot bro. The Orioles are a good young team, but it'll be tough to repeat that record. If they get pitching I'll agree they could pull it off again. The East is a beast, no doubt.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/year/2023/sort/expWinPct

 

This list could be wrong but it's the one I was going off of, says 95-67 here

[Spanky__99]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/year/2023/sort/expWinPct

 

This list could be wrong but this is what I was going off of, says 95-67 here

 

Try the actual league site, mate.

 

https://www.mlb.com/standings/regular-season/division/2023?date=2023-10-02

[deanmike]

Try the actual league site, mate.

 

https://www.mlb.com/standings/regular-season/division/2023?date=2023-10-02

 

The expected winning percentage is the same just applied differently by the different sites I think. ESPN likely rounded up to 95 because a .586 pythag winning % is roughly 94.9 wins in 162 games. MLB.com likely rounded down because 94.9 is factually less than 95 wins, the pythag record itself can be interpreted slightly different.

 

Personally I round up to 95 because 94.9 is close to 95, and their actual win total was higher than 95.

 

Edit: Nevermind glossary says different exponents of choice are used (and apparently Baseball Reference has their own pythag record too, maybe its better than both ESPN and MLB.com)

[Spanky__99]

The expected winning percentage is the same just applied differently by the different sites I think. ESPN likely rounded up to 95 because a .586 pythag winning % is roughly 94.9 wins in 162 games. MLB.com likely rounded down because 94.9 is factually less than 95 wins, the pythag record itself can be interpreted slightly different.

 

Personally I round up to 95 because 94.9 is close to 95, and their actual win total was higher than 95.

 

Edit: Nevermind glossary says different exponents of choice are used (and apparently Baseball Reference has their own pythag record too, maybe its better than both ESPN and MLB.com)

 

BR is 94-68??? Regardless, 7 games is a lot as I said.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml#all_expanded_standings_overall

[deanmike]

[Sorrow]

When it comes to the Orioles I think they'll end up around 91 wins but I wouldn't be surprised by a .500 record of a 100+ win season either. They have so much potential but that pitching is still very questionable.

[43211234]

Eric Pardinho pitched for the Blue Jays in spring today and his 2 fastballs he threw averaged 95.3?

 

I though his arm was cooked.

[RustyTrombone]

Eric Pardinho pitched for the Blue Jays in spring today and his 2 fastballs he threw averaged 95.3?

 

I though his arm was cooked.

 

Now thats a name most wouldnt have thought of in a while. He was like 88-92 when he was a prospect so good to see hes added velo.

[Spanky__99]

Pipeline's Blue Jays top 30...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/toronto-blue-jays-top-30-prospects-list-2024-preseason?t=bluejays-pipeline-coverage

[John_Havok]

Pipeline's Blue Jays top 30...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/toronto-blue-jays-top-30-prospects-list-2024-preseason?t=bluejays-pipeline-coverage

 

I'm leaning towards Maroudis as one of a few names that could have a breakout year.

[Laika]

Pipeline's Blue Jays top 30...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/toronto-blue-jays-top-30-prospects-list-2024-preseason?t=bluejays-pipeline-coverage

 

The 2022 crop, big year for them.

 

R1 - Barriera, obviously needs to show his talent

R2 - Kasevich, Toman, Doughty... I wonder if all three of these guys are being prematurely written off. Toman only has 549 MiLB PA as a high school pick. Kasevich hit .284/.363 and will be in New Hampshire... Doughty had an .801 OPS and will be in New Hampshite... they are all actual infielders. Still have a chance.

R3 - Roden, does he make an MLB push mid-season and hold his own?

R4 - Ryan Jennings, new sleeper for me, he is in camp throwing a 95mph sinker and a 94.5mph 4S with 17 IVB (decent) and throwing FOUR other pitches. Is this a guy with a solid fastball and a deep arsenal?????????

[Orgfiller]

The 2022 crop, big year for them.

 

R1 - Barriera, obviously needs to show his talent

R2 - Kasevich, Toman, Doughty... I wonder if all three of these guys are being prematurely written off. Toman only has 549 MiLB PA as a high school pick. Kasevich hit .284/.363 and will be in New Hampshire... Doughty had an .801 OPS and will be in New Hampshite... they are all actual infielders. Still have a chance.

R3 - Roden, does he make an MLB push mid-season and hold his own?

R4 - Ryan Jennings, new sleeper for me, he is in camp throwing a 95mph sinker and a 94.5mph 4S with 17 IVB (decent) and throwing FOUR other pitches. Is this a guy with a solid fastball and a deep arsenal?????????

 

I actually wonder how good Kasevich's defense is/can be. Fangraphs gave him a future 70 hit tool which like, sure he can put the bat on the ball and not swing and miss, but I see no power potential there at all. It's more of a Willians Astudillo profile with some eye but no ability to barrel up the ball. Everything in Spring he's hit so softly, but I guess to some extent he's probably facing better pitching on average than he has in the minors, as he's only gone as high as A+. He reminds me of a 6'1 David Eckstein but unclear if the defense is anywhere near as good.

[Terminator]

I'm leaning towards Maroudis as one of a few names that could have a breakout year.

 

Yeah everything I'm reading says he could be a good pick to have a breakout year. On the hitting side of things I like Jace Bohrofen to have a breakout year.

[Laika]

I actually wonder how good Kasevich's defense is/can be. Fangraphs gave him a future 70 hit tool which like, sure he can put the bat on the ball and not swing and miss, but I see no power potential there at all. It's more of a Willians Astudillo profile with some eye but no ability to barrel up the ball. Everything in Spring he's hit so softly, but I guess to some extent he's probably facing better pitching on average than he has in the minors, as he's only gone as high as A+. He reminds me of a 6'1 David Eckstein but unclear if the defense is anywhere near as good.

 

yeah we never know with these guys. all the reports say he is a sure-thing shortstop and one of the best defensive SS in the system, but that could be a -3 or a +10 for all we know.

 

It sounds like a Santiago Espinal package to me.

 

I watched some video of his swings, I don't think it's a NO POWER situation. But maybe an 8 HR pop situation.

 

Ceiling something like .267/.322/.370 for a 100 wRC+ if everything works out and he develops enough raw power to even hit for average up here

[mphenhef]

Their pythag record was 95-67 last season, so they only overperformed it by 6 wins, They also had the 5th best pythag record in baseball, with only 3 teams having 100+ win pythag records last season (Braves/Dodgers/Rays). I guess if you consider that "not even close"...

 

pythag records only take runs scored and allowed into account right? I would think there are some pretty big luck and timing aspects to runs scored (ie stringing together hits). It's interesting that their pythag was so good when the Jays actually had a better team WRC+ last year AND a better XFIP. Orioles were superior in base running metrics which could have had an impact but Jays were significantly better defensively.

[Spanky__99]

I'm leaning towards Maroudis as one of a few names that could have a breakout year.

 

Jace Bohrofen.

[keggy]

pythag records only take runs scored and allowed into account right? I would think there are some pretty big luck and timing aspects to runs scored (ie stringing together hits). It's interesting that their pythag was so good when the Jays actually had a better team WRC+ last year AND a better XFIP. Orioles were superior in base running metrics which could have had an impact but Jays were significantly better defensively.

 

Baltimore had the best bullpen in baseball last year. They are an elite baserunning team as you mentioned. They don't micromanage SP matchups like the Rays and Blue Jays do. All of these factors contribute to outperforming your Pythagorean record.