Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[Olerud363.354]

Lukes didn't have a great World Series and I think Lukes and Hoffman were the weak points in game 7.

Hitters hit better against Hoffman than Lukes hit.  Lukes hit .255 .323 .407 and hitters against Hoffman were .213 .298 .447.

No team perfect.  Next year second hitter needs higher OPS than closer.   Many teams have closer with .500 OPS against, and second hitter .900 OPS.  

Edit:  Obviously above statement not exactly True except for Mets when Sota hit second.  However Jays could probably accomplish that by hitting Vlad Second and improving the closer.

So that is stat I will watch.  Second hitter OPS, and closer OPS against, and it needs to be better.

[Brownie19]

11 hours ago, Stangstag said:

I think with Bieber back now you don’t bother with Bassitt unless you can punt Berrios somewhere.

1. Gauman

2. FA like Cease

3. Yesavage 

4. Bieber

5. Berrios/Bassitt

Honestly very solid

Love ya Stangstag, but I'm gonna nominate this for understatement of the year...

[Brownie19]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Nothing wrong with that at all. That's his best role. I've stated that numerous times, even throughout the season. 

If an injury happens, you can start/platoon him with someone for a couple weeks and won't hurt. I don't want to see Lukes getting 500 PA's however. 

Lukes is a great bench guy to have.  Ideally he gets 250 PA's a season, but if the injury bug strikes, he's also someone you don't hate getting 500+ PA's.  That's pretty rare these days.  

I believe on average, the 4th OFer is expected to receive 450-500 PA's a year.

[Jimcanuck]

IMO, the best FA fits for the Jays are Bregman and 1 of Woodruff/Gallen.  It would mean good bye to Bichette.

Bregman puts Barger in RF, and gives the team crazy good defense with the sole exception of Santander in LF.

edit - actually the top free agent SP in terms of GB rate are Valdez and Suarez.  With an IF defense of Vlad, Ernie, Gim, and Bregman, I'd be targetting those guys.

[Angrioter]

Can Bichette stick at 3B?

[Laika]

Zac Gallen is a lot closer to Jose Berrios than Brandon Woodruff, lol

 

[Laika]

Bichette looked fantastic at 2B in the World Series

[Jimcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

Bichette looked fantastic at 2B in the World Series

Some team will offer him the SS job.  I rather doubt he comes back to TO to be the 2B.

[Laika]

18 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Some team will offer him the SS job.  I rather doubt he comes back to TO to be the 2B.

Doubt

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

If the Pirates trade Skenes rather than spend to build around him they should just fold the franchise or force the owner out.

They should be doing that already. 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Lukes didn't have a great World Series and I think Lukes and Hoffman were the weak points in game 7.

Hitters hit better against Hoffman than Lukes hit.  Lukes hit .255 .323 .407 and hitters against Hoffman were .213 .298 .447.

No team perfect.  Next year second hitter needs higher OPS than closer.   Many teams have closer with .500 OPS against, and second hitter .900 OPS.  

Edit:  Obviously above statement not exactly True except for Mets when Sota hit second.  However Jays could probably accomplish that by hitting Vlad Second and improving the closer.

So that is stat I will watch.  Second hitter OPS, and closer OPS against, and it needs to be better.

Were you having a stroke when you were posting this?

[BTS]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

They should be doing that already. 

It's going to be so sad when Pittsburgh signs Cedric Mullins and Martin Perez and calls it an offseason. 

[SeranthonySantander]

24 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Were you having a stroke when you were posting this?

We need our closer with a .500 ops against and our #2 hitters need to bat with a 900 ops.  If those 2 things were true we win the World Series.

We can’t have our closer with a .900 ops against and our 2 hitter with .500 ops.  

I think that was his point was if Soto was our #2 hitter and had Josh Hader or someone similar as a closer that would be ideal 

[jmomcc]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Lukes is a great bench guy to have.  Ideally he gets 250 PA's a season, but if the injury bug strikes, he's also someone you don't hate getting 500+ PA's.  That's pretty rare these days.  

I believe on average, the 4th OFer is expected to receive 450-500 PA's a year.

This is the key thing to me. Santander was injured essentially all year and we had 1.8 WAR, 103 wrc+ on the bench for league minimum, and someone who could credibly play any outfield spot. 

I'm not giving that up for a reliever. Unless we think we have more of that in the org. 

[Jimcanuck]

13 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

This is the key thing to me. Santander was injured essentially all year and we had 1.8 WAR, 103 wrc+ on the bench for league minimum, and someone who could credibly play any outfield spot. 

I'm not giving that up for a reliever. Unless we think we have more of that in the org. 

Not much in the org for position player depth.  Loperfido, Schreck, Kasevich, Clase.  Clase is out of options and Kasevich is R5 eligible.  Lukes is unlikely to be moved.

[Terminator]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Fangraphs Top 50 FAs article is here

 

[Jimcanuck]

9 minutes ago, Terminator said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Fangraphs Top 50 FAs article is here

 

Woodruff far below Gallen.

[Terminator]

4 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Woodruff far below Gallen.

Why are you on Gallen's nuts so much? I can only assume that you own him on a fantasy team or something given your past behavior

[mphenhef]

I would not be the least bit surprised to see Triston McKenzie singed by the Jays as a reclamation project.

[Laika]

34 minutes ago, Terminator said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

Fangraphs Top 50 FAs article is here

 

This list is [redacted]

Buddy literally puts Pete Alonso 7th with a 2.6 WAR projection and $120M contract estimate above Bo Bichette with a 3.9 WAR projection and $200M contract estimate 

This is not a list of the top 50 free agents in any functional order

It's not ordered by contract estimate, or talent. It's not even ordered by surplus value. 

It's ordered by.... Ben Clemens' preference for player X on contract Y? It's not even his guess at surplus value, because there is no such analysis. Just same vague, hand-wavy shot in the dark  stuff. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, SeranthonySantander said:

I think that was his point was if Soto was our #2 hitter and had Josh Hader or someone similar as a closer that would be ideal 

 Many teams have close to this even if they don't have Sota and Hosh Hader.  It's not just replacing Lukes with Soto.  It's lineup configuration.  Like hitting Vlad second, Lucas 7th and working on developing I guess an at least average closer.  Of course not every World Series team has a .900 OPS second hitter, and .500 OPS (against) closer, but I bet hardly any have .700/.750. 

Two cases close to the heart

In the 7th game of the World Series the LA Dodgers used a .900 OPS hitter 2nd (Will Smith) and a late inning pitcher Yamamoto, with a .536 OPS against.

It's like using Eugenia Suarez and Crawford on the left side of your infield.  It's the kind of thing that doesn't hurt you until it does.    Like they don't NOT make 10 plays a week, that would add up to a couple hundred runs in a year, but people were arguing there were "several" plays they didn't make in the ALCS, which could be true if the right circumstances collide with them.  In game 7 Will Smith crushed several balls that Nathan Lukes (and Schneider and Straw) didn't.   

Other case 1993 Roberto Alomar .900 OPS, 1993 Duane Ward .530 OPS against.

Jeff Hoffman/Nathan Lukes was a weakpoint that eventually burnt us, just like some argued Suarez/Crawford defense was a weakpoint that burnt them.   

[Terminator]

Lukes is a great guy to have on the team. Literally just league average across the board but that kind of plays up because he's a left handed bat. Also, please note that I was pumping his tires long before anyone else was. I literally was getting tarred and feathered for wanting to stick him in the starting lineup but once we did the team took off.

With that said, I think the original point is that if we want to improve the offense beyond just bringing Bo back we are going to have to trade someone!

If we re-sign Bo then it's the same 13 position players heading into next year. That's fine so long as we go wild on the pitching side of things, but if you want to improve the lineup you'll have to trade somebody. That's all.

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Doubt

Yankees tho?

Rightly or wrongly that fanbase wants their current SS punted to the moon

And Cashman clearly undervalues defense

[Olerud363.354]

In game 7 the second spot was 0 for 5 with a sac bunt.    The weakness of Lucas a center piece of your offense is also that he doesn't play the whole game often and then you end up with Straw in the second spot. 

[Terminator]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

This list is [redacted]

Buddy literally puts Pete Alonso 7th with a 2.6 WAR projection and $120M contract estimate above Bo Bichette with a 3.9 WAR projection and $200M contract estimate 

This is not a list of the top 50 free agents in any functional order

It's not ordered by contract estimate, or talent. It's not even ordered by surplus value. 

It's ordered by.... Ben Clemens' preference for player X on contract Y? It's not even his guess at surplus value, because there is no such analysis. Just same vague, hand-wavy shot in the dark  stuff. 

The order sucks but the write ups and contract estimates are usually pretty good.

As for why Bo is so low, Clemens says he "prefers the seven players listed ahead of [Bo] here. For me, Bichette’s lack of impact defense means that he’s one of the players who WAR overvalues most; sure, he’s a shortstop, but he’s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball."

He goes on to explain that he doesn't think he'll be any good at 2B either and that he has injury concerns.

So Clemens really does think Pete Alonso is a better player than Bo and that Bo is overrated by WAR due to positional adjustments.

[Olerud363.354]

So off-season Roster question is this.

Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit second or does it mess with his mind too much?  Seemed fine in game 4 and 5.  

Need to figure out 1-2-3.  Springer Bo Vlad?   Springer Barger Vlad?  Springer Tucker Vlad?  

Does anyone really think Springer Lukes/Schneider Vlad is the way to go again? 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

The order sucks but the write ups and contract estimates are usually pretty good.

As for why Bo is so low, Clemens says he "prefers the seven players listed ahead of [Bo] here. For me, Bichette’s lack of impact defense means that he’s one of the players who WAR overvalues most; sure, he’s a shortstop, but he’s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball." He goes on to explain that he doesn't think he'll be any good at 2B either and that he has injury concerns.

So in other words, Clemens really does think Pete Alonso is a better player than Bo and that Bo is overrated by WAR due to positional adjustments.

How does this man write for Fangraphs 

[Olerud363.354]

Another offseason question is who is the closer late next year?  Even if Hoffman starts as closer what is the plan if he has a .750 OPS against again?  You can't let him do that again.  If he has normal closer numbers go with him sure. 

[G-Snarls]

14 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

In game 7 the second spot was 0 for 5 with a sac bunt.    The weakness of Lucas a center piece of your offense is also that he doesn't play the whole game often and then you end up with Straw in the second spot. 

Yeah.  With a healthy and productive Santander (and ideally with Bo) it's a much easier lineup to construct

 

1. Springer (DH or COF)

2. Bichette (2B)

3. Guerrero Jr (1B)

4. Santander (DH or COF)

5. Kirk (C)

6. Barger (COF)

7. Clement (3B)

8. Varsho (CF)

9  Gimenez (SS)

Bench: Heineman, Schneider, Straw, and another utility infielder that's not IKF

The defense suffers a bit compared to what we had for most of 2025 but that could be  one of the deepest lineups in the league.

Santander becomes a full time DH after Springer is gone in 2027.  For 2026 I want both in the lineup so they both have to play some OF.  

[HomeRunHomer]

It does feel like the best option is to sign Bo and try to run it back doesn't it?