Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Orgfiller]

16 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

So you don't like Vladdys defence and base running but you were OK with them offering Soto 760 million?  

He's got the same warts.  Both guys can rake.  You can't be OK with Soto at 760 but then not Vlad at 60-70% of that. 

 

 

 

Soto has over double the career WAR that Vladdy has. Career wRC+ of 158 vs Vlad's 137. Career worst season was 3.7 WAR with a 146 wRC+, Vlad's (one year ago btw) was 1 WAR with a 118 wRC+. He's also a better baserunner - bad nonetheless, but not league worst - and defender - also bad, but not league worst.

Soto is at least a tier above Vladdy. He rakes at a level of an all-time great, at his worst he's better than an average Vlad season.

[BTS]

1 minute ago, M.E. said:

The only option now is trade him and Bo and rebuild.......again.

If this is true, it's true regardless of what happens with Vlad and Bo, and the thing that killed them was an inability to develop MLB talent. For a well-run organization, 1 or 2 players leaving via FA wouldn't dictate that a rebuild is in order. 

[Laika]

fWAR since Vlad debuted in MLB. C'mon my dudes. Relax. We have been there his entire career, we should all know how frustrating he has been for large swathes of that. 

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	679	2963	227	508	514	36	15.8%	26.4%	.330	.339	.294	.409	.624	.428		181	-2.2	278.7	-18.4	36.7
2	Juan Soto	3 Tms	797	3492	175	565	505	50	19.2%	16.3%	.252	.300	.285	.424	.537	.407		161	-10.9	249.6	-46.9	32.1
3	Francisco Lindor	2 Tms	796	3504	149	514	458	114	8.8%	17.9%	.205	.284	.264	.337	.469	.344		121	7.0	94.3	94.8	31.5
4	Mookie Betts	2 Tms	711	3236	157	574	429	77	11.9%	14.7%	.244	.294	.287	.376	.531	.385		145	9.0	190.2	-1.7	30.2
5	José Ramírez	CLE	786	3388	166	503	547	143	10.1%	12.6%	.246	.273	.277	.352	.523	.364		136	23.0	168.4	13.0	30.1
6	Freddie Freeman	2 Tms	820	3614	151	592	533	61	12.0%	15.9%	.222	.337	.309	.399	.532	.392		149	4.3	224.4	-47.4	29.9
7	Trea Turner	3 Tms	761	3397	125	536	409	151	6.5%	18.6%	.192	.339	.299	.349	.491	.358		126	34.9	145.8	24.1	28.4
8	Marcus Semien	3 Tms	832	3786	159	569	458	75	9.4%	16.4%	.206	.273	.258	.330	.465	.340		118	11.9	95.9	38.4	26.5
9	Shohei Ohtani	2 Tms	761	3235	203	503	506	135	12.2%	25.2%	.295	.325	.281	.372	.576	.393		153	15.5	220.6	-75.9	25.8
10	Alex Bregman	HOU	727	3185	129	458	443	11	12.4%	12.6%	.206	.269	.267	.364	.473	.359		133	-12.3	114.0	23.3	24.7
11	Corey Seager	2 Tms	647	2809	144	404	431	9	9.1%	16.6%	.240	.297	.285	.353	.525	.369		138	-5.5	121.9	24.9	24.2
12	Jose Altuve	HOU	677	3025	123	497	328	66	9.0%	15.5%	.198	.312	.290	.360	.489	.364		136	1.3	131.3	3.7	24.1
13	Xander Bogaerts	2 Tms	746	3179	108	436	385	57	9.0%	17.7%	.178	.331	.295	.361	.472	.357		126	9.8	109.8	19.8	23.7
14	Nolan Arenado	2 Tms	780	3276	151	404	499	14	7.8%	14.2%	.212	.283	.278	.336	.490	.348		118	-4.4	68.7	54.5	23.6
15	Rafael Devers	BOS	775	3384	169	510	535	21	8.6%	20.7%	.244	.318	.285	.352	.529	.368		132	-5.8	122.8	-2.2	23.6
16	Manny Machado	SDP	785	3345	163	457	527	45	9.0%	18.2%	.217	.295	.276	.341	.493	.352		127	-4.2	104.4	14.1	23.4
17	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	629	2668	164	412	466	8	11.9%	20.0%	.285	.322	.298	.390	.583	.406		166	-10.7	198.0	-59.0	23.3
18	Bryce Harper	PHI	701	3016	147	457	440	64	14.3%	22.0%	.249	.331	.286	.391	.535	.388		145	-1.8	167.8	-36.6	23.2
19	Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	587	2660	133	487	337	178	11.5%	21.5%	.231	.330	.288	.380	.518	.382		140	25.2	158.8	-17.6	22.8
20	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	674	2739	106	369	365	65	7.3%	23.3%	.198	.316	.266	.330	.464	.339		113	12.6	55.6	76.7	22.5
21	Dansby Swanson	2 Tms	781	3294	112	453	409	68	8.6%	24.9%	.171	.313	.254	.322	.426	.323		103	16.3	28.6	83.1	22.4
22	Matt Olson	2 Tms	827	3563	206	492	584	6	11.8%	23.4%	.260	.283	.257	.351	.517	.365		134	-8.9	140.9	-49.4	21.5
23	Ketel Marte	ARI	677	2882	115	411	367	31	9.6%	16.0%	.218	.314	.291	.363	.509	.370		133	4.2	122.6	-6.7	21.4
24	Matt Chapman	3 Tms	766	3185	136	432	378	25	10.7%	27.8%	.213	.287	.233	.322	.446	.330		113	2.7	53.8	46.7	21.1
25	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	812	3474	144	476	458	45	11.0%	22.8%	.202	.330	.278	.359	.480	.360		130	0.9	128.8	-47.2	20.3
26	Willy Adames	2 Tms	771	3197	139	412	434	45	9.7%	26.9%	.205	.301	.246	.320	.451	.331		110	2.3	43.4	45.5	19.9
27	Austin Riley	ATL	719	3042	153	426	429	5	7.8%	25.7%	.230	.324	.272	.338	.502	.357		124	-2.9	86.9	-6.0	18.5
28	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	648	2799	84	383	289	29	12.3%	20.8%	.174	.313	.263	.366	.437	.352		127	2.5	96.3	-7.4	18.4
29	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	790	3334	122	432	411	38	9.2%	21.9%	.194	.326	.276	.351	.469	.351		120	-0.5	82.9	-26.7	17.1
30	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

[Laika]

Trade for Bryan Reynolds! 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nice to see some sense in this thread. The money Vlad is asking for is insane, and people want to chastise the FO for not giving it to him? 

Life will go on if the overweight 1B who can't play D or base run walks in FA. Sure, when he's on he can hit, but when he's off he brings nothing else to the table.

[Orgfiller]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

fWAR since Vlad debuted in MLB. C'mon my dudes. Relax. We have been there his entire career, we should all know how frustrating he has been for large swathes of that. 

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	679	2963	227	508	514	36	15.8%	26.4%	.330	.339	.294	.409	.624	.428		181	-2.2	278.7	-18.4	36.7
2	Juan Soto	3 Tms	797	3492	175	565	505	50	19.2%	16.3%	.252	.300	.285	.424	.537	.407		161	-10.9	249.6	-46.9	32.1
3	Francisco Lindor	2 Tms	796	3504	149	514	458	114	8.8%	17.9%	.205	.284	.264	.337	.469	.344		121	7.0	94.3	94.8	31.5
4	Mookie Betts	2 Tms	711	3236	157	574	429	77	11.9%	14.7%	.244	.294	.287	.376	.531	.385		145	9.0	190.2	-1.7	30.2
5	José Ramírez	CLE	786	3388	166	503	547	143	10.1%	12.6%	.246	.273	.277	.352	.523	.364		136	23.0	168.4	13.0	30.1
6	Freddie Freeman	2 Tms	820	3614	151	592	533	61	12.0%	15.9%	.222	.337	.309	.399	.532	.392		149	4.3	224.4	-47.4	29.9
7	Trea Turner	3 Tms	761	3397	125	536	409	151	6.5%	18.6%	.192	.339	.299	.349	.491	.358		126	34.9	145.8	24.1	28.4
8	Marcus Semien	3 Tms	832	3786	159	569	458	75	9.4%	16.4%	.206	.273	.258	.330	.465	.340		118	11.9	95.9	38.4	26.5
9	Shohei Ohtani	2 Tms	761	3235	203	503	506	135	12.2%	25.2%	.295	.325	.281	.372	.576	.393		153	15.5	220.6	-75.9	25.8
10	Alex Bregman	HOU	727	3185	129	458	443	11	12.4%	12.6%	.206	.269	.267	.364	.473	.359		133	-12.3	114.0	23.3	24.7
11	Corey Seager	2 Tms	647	2809	144	404	431	9	9.1%	16.6%	.240	.297	.285	.353	.525	.369		138	-5.5	121.9	24.9	24.2
12	Jose Altuve	HOU	677	3025	123	497	328	66	9.0%	15.5%	.198	.312	.290	.360	.489	.364		136	1.3	131.3	3.7	24.1
13	Xander Bogaerts	2 Tms	746	3179	108	436	385	57	9.0%	17.7%	.178	.331	.295	.361	.472	.357		126	9.8	109.8	19.8	23.7
14	Nolan Arenado	2 Tms	780	3276	151	404	499	14	7.8%	14.2%	.212	.283	.278	.336	.490	.348		118	-4.4	68.7	54.5	23.6
15	Rafael Devers	BOS	775	3384	169	510	535	21	8.6%	20.7%	.244	.318	.285	.352	.529	.368		132	-5.8	122.8	-2.2	23.6
16	Manny Machado	SDP	785	3345	163	457	527	45	9.0%	18.2%	.217	.295	.276	.341	.493	.352		127	-4.2	104.4	14.1	23.4
17	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	629	2668	164	412	466	8	11.9%	20.0%	.285	.322	.298	.390	.583	.406		166	-10.7	198.0	-59.0	23.3
18	Bryce Harper	PHI	701	3016	147	457	440	64	14.3%	22.0%	.249	.331	.286	.391	.535	.388		145	-1.8	167.8	-36.6	23.2
19	Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	587	2660	133	487	337	178	11.5%	21.5%	.231	.330	.288	.380	.518	.382		140	25.2	158.8	-17.6	22.8
20	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	674	2739	106	369	365	65	7.3%	23.3%	.198	.316	.266	.330	.464	.339		113	12.6	55.6	76.7	22.5
21	Dansby Swanson	2 Tms	781	3294	112	453	409	68	8.6%	24.9%	.171	.313	.254	.322	.426	.323		103	16.3	28.6	83.1	22.4
22	Matt Olson	2 Tms	827	3563	206	492	584	6	11.8%	23.4%	.260	.283	.257	.351	.517	.365		134	-8.9	140.9	-49.4	21.5
23	Ketel Marte	ARI	677	2882	115	411	367	31	9.6%	16.0%	.218	.314	.291	.363	.509	.370		133	4.2	122.6	-6.7	21.4
24	Matt Chapman	3 Tms	766	3185	136	432	378	25	10.7%	27.8%	.213	.287	.233	.322	.446	.330		113	2.7	53.8	46.7	21.1
25	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	812	3474	144	476	458	45	11.0%	22.8%	.202	.330	.278	.359	.480	.360		130	0.9	128.8	-47.2	20.3
26	Willy Adames	2 Tms	771	3197	139	412	434	45	9.7%	26.9%	.205	.301	.246	.320	.451	.331		110	2.3	43.4	45.5	19.9
27	Austin Riley	ATL	719	3042	153	426	429	5	7.8%	25.7%	.230	.324	.272	.338	.502	.357		124	-2.9	86.9	-6.0	18.5
28	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	648	2799	84	383	289	29	12.3%	20.8%	.174	.313	.263	.366	.437	.352		127	2.5	96.3	-7.4	18.4
29	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	790	3334	122	432	411	38	9.2%	21.9%	.194	.326	.276	.351	.469	.351		120	-0.5	82.9	-26.7	17.1
30	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

If you remove the PA qualifier to 0 this actually adds 10 more names to the list in front of Vlad. Also I f***ing love not only that the table copies so neatly, but it keeps all the hyperlinks to guy's pages. This new forum rocks.

Should be noted that Vlad is the second worst defender in this sample behind Kyle Schwarber, and is the 11th worst baserunner behind mostly 30+ year old catchers, old 1B, Alejandro Kirk, and Yandy Diaz.

[glory]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

Remember when the New York Yankees let Aaron Judge go to free agency and then brought him back? 

Pepperidge farm remembers 

Was that a massive fumble by New York? 

Teams with big payrolls aren't typically as scared about "losing the player for nothing." Desperate tiny payroll teams are the ones who feel like they have to churn players via trade and always turn them into controllable assets. 

Judge turned down more money from the Giants to stay in NY, and the big market teams (NYM, LAD, BOS, PHI, etc) weren't really in on him. Vlad is going to have at least the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees (if he's willing to play there) after him. Schwarber is a FA after 2025 so the Phillies might have interest. The markets seem very different. 

The moment he hits free agency, he's gone. 

[Jonn]

9 minutes ago, M.E. said:

This really just sucked any hope I had for the season and the future out of me.  Whether it would have been a good or bad deal at least we had our star locked up instead of hoping to bring in a guy through free agency that ultimately won't sign here.  The only option now is trade him and Bo and rebuild.......again.

Thought I was on Facebook for a second . Had to double check.

[Jonn]

Just now, glory said:

Judge turned down more money from the Giants to stay in NY, and the big market teams (NYM, LAD, BOS, PHI, etc) weren't really in on him. Vlad is going to have at least the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees (if he's willing to play there) after him. Schwarber is a FA after 2025 so the Phillies might have interest. The markets seem very different. 

The moment he hits free agency, he's gone. 

Schwarber would be an excellent replacement for Vladdy and come at a fraction of the price. Jays should be all over that.

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

Judge turned down more money from the Giants to stay in NY, and the big market teams (NYM, LAD, BOS, PHI, etc) weren't really in on him. Vlad is going to have at least the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees (if he's willing to play there) after him. Schwarber is a FA after 2025 so the Phillies might have interest. The markets seem very different. 

The moment he hits free agency, he's gone. 

But why would any of those teams have evaluations of Vlad that differ from Toronto's? 

[Jimcanuck]

26 minutes ago, glory said:

Vlad has every incentive in the world to be motivated this season. He's going to be the top FA in the class, and he knows another non-elite season is going to hurt his value significantly. Obviously we've been down this road before (JD in 2018) and didn't get the desired result, but Vlad at 26 and Bo at 27 playing for their first big contracts means you're probably getting max effort out of both. In Vlad's case, max effort still means he's going to suck defensively and on the bases. That's just the type of player he is. 

Of course but as I said Vlad only cares about hitting and thinks hitting alone will get him a big payday.

Also, dont you think any trade partners will take into account Vlads motivation?

Trade him now.

[Brownie19]

39 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Dude you have insulted me worse on here several times.

I hope everyone remembers how much you and the your ilk have fluffed Shatkins and always backed them, right until the bitter end. There's no coming back from the stance you've taken.  Next year after they have been canned, you better take the L.  If you try and act like you didn't love these guys, the rest of us will remember.

 

[glory]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

But why would any of those teams have evaluations of Vlad that differ from Toronto's? 

It may not. It's very possible Vlad hits free agency and realizes he's not getting the money he thinks he's worth, but the Jays are going to be up against big market teams with more favorable short and long term contention windows. It won't be the Jays vs the Giants. If the Jays didn't think Vlad was worth overpaying now, then what is going to compel them to outbid the Mets, Red Sox, etc, a year from now? Shapiro in his presser said Ed was involved in the negotiations. If that's true then it's possible Rogers isn't willing to go super high here either.

Ultimately, I don't think the Jays are wrong in not wanting to give Vlad a monster extension. They might end up looking very right. I just don't see them winning or even having the appetite to win a bidding war 9 months from now. Judge was always more likely to stay with the Yankees. 

[Vancouverite]

i started posting on this board after being a long-time reader for 15+ years just to say my piece that best course of action is to trade Vladdy!

In his 6 MLB seasons he has 2 great seasons of 6.3 WAR and 5.5 WAR. A decent season of 3.3 WAR and 3 other seasons of 1.3, 0.3 and 0.3 WAR.

He's not that good defensively

He's a 1B

He is one of the worst base runners in the league

He's not athletic

and the guy probably wants somewhere between 450-550 million contract.

Trade this guy ... he's full of himself. he's all about me me me, all about vladdy. I've been saying this all off-season.

I really do hope the BoSoxs or Mets decide to give this guy an albatross of a contract to f*** over their team for the next decade.

[wilko]

Put a package together with Bo and Vladdy. Ship them off. 

[Stangstag]

18 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

i started posting on this board after being a long-time reader for 15+ years just to say my piece that best course of action is to trade Vladdy!

In his 6 MLB seasons he has 2 great seasons of 6.3 WAR and 5.5 WAR. A decent season of 3.3 WAR and 3 other seasons of 1.3, 0.3 and 0.3 WAR.

He's not that good defensively

He's a 1B

He is one of the worst base runners in the league

He's not athletic

and the guy probably wants somewhere between 450-550 million contract.

Trade this guy ... he's full of himself. he's all about me me me, all about vladdy. I've been saying this all off-season.

I really do hope the BoSoxs or Mets decide to give this guy an albatross of a contract to f*** over their team for the next decade.

Welcome and thanks for having a sensible opinion. Post more!

[204Jays]

Initially a bit bothered by the lack of an extension but rational thoughts have prevailed. 

As others have already summarized, dude just isn't worth what he's asking for.

 

To me, the real question(s) are this:
1. Do you keep Vladdy and go for it?

2. Do you trade Vladdy for some combo of MLB-players and prospects?

Answer that while considering, what does it do to Santander, Max, + etc etc

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, 204Jays said:

Initially a bit bothered by the lack of an extension but rationale thoughts have prevailed. 

As others have already summarized, dude just isn't worth what he's asking for.

 

To me, the real question(s) are this:
1. Do you keep Vladdy and go for it?

2. Do you trade Vladdy for some combo of MLB-players and prospects?

Answer that while considering, what does it do to Santander, Max, + etc etc

I'm not convinced the value you get for Vlad today is "much" higher than what you'd get for him at the deadline - so I think they do go for it.  I doubt it works though and they'll sell Vlad and Bo (amongst several others) at the deadline.

It will get dicey if we're actually good this year and in a playoff spot at the deadline...

[wilko]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm not convinced the value you get for Vlad today is "much" higher than what you'd get for him at the deadline - so I think they do go for it.  I doubt it works though and they'll sell Vlad and Bo (amongst several others) at the deadline.

It will get dicey if we're actually good this year and in a playoff spot at the deadline...

That would be worst case Ontario. Bo and Vladdy walk for nothing! 

[204Jays]

2 minutes ago, wilko said:

That would be worst case Ontario. Bo and Vladdy walk for nothing! 

And in blue jays fashion, this is now the likely scenario!

[Laika]

20 minutes ago, wilko said:

That would be worst case Ontario. Bo and Vladdy walk for nothing! 

*comp picks baby 

[204Jays]

25 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm not convinced the value you get for Vlad today is "much" higher than what you'd get for him at the deadline - so I think they do go for it.  I doubt it works though and they'll sell Vlad and Bo (amongst several others) at the deadline.

It will get dicey if we're actually good this year and in a playoff spot at the deadline...

Who says no to Vientos ++ for Vlad?

[Laika]

30 minutes ago, 204Jays said:

Initially a bit bothered by the lack of an extension but rational thoughts have prevailed. 

As others have already summarized, dude just isn't worth what he's asking for.

 

To me, the real question(s) are this:
1. Do you keep Vladdy and go for it?

2. Do you trade Vladdy for some combo of MLB-players and prospects?

Answer that while considering, what does it do to Santander, Max, + etc etc

Probably missed the offseason window to trade him. 

Go for it, sell at deadline if they suck. 

If they are on the bubble at the deadline some tough decisions will need to be made. Worst case scenario could unfold, where they keep everyone and miss the postseason. 

[Brownie19]

32 minutes ago, wilko said:

That would be worst case Ontario. Bo and Vladdy walk for nothing! 

Could also provide us with an opportunity for a long playoff run, which would be awesome.  Then once Vlad realizes MLB doesn't pay for bat only players, he can re-sign here in the offseason after being humbled that he isn't worth half of what Soto is.

 

[AMS528]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

Probably missed the offseason window to trade him. 

Go for it, sell at deadline if they suck. 

If they are on the bubble at the deadline some tough decisions will need to be made. Worst case scenario could unfold, where they keep everyone and miss the postseason. 

The problem here is that they should have already traded him if they were that far apart (as it's been implied) on their numbers with Vlad. 

Because you are in a worse position in lots of ways like I noted earlier. If they do well, then Vlad is going to get that ridiculous contract, and the Jays are like a 50/50 shot to make the post season. Nice if they do, but they may also be close and miss like you're saying which is worst case. Either way in that case Vlad's valuation across the league is higher cause he's putting together back to back good years and he goes elsewhere maybe. 

If we suck, then there's a decent chance that Vlad is also not doing that well, in which case he's going to fetch less value at the deadline (which is already less value because a team is not getting a full season of Vlad). 

I don't think there's a positive spin here, I think this situation mostly sucks. You listed a bunch of potential scenarios earlier where some did not end badly for the Jays, but I think on a percentage basis, the worse group of scenarios are statistically likelier by a chunk. 

[Brownie19]

13 minutes ago, Laika said:

Probably missed the offseason window to trade him. 

Go for it, sell at deadline if they suck. 

If they are on the bubble at the deadline some tough decisions will need to be made. Worst case scenario could unfold, where they keep everyone and miss the postseason. 

It will be fascinating to see if this passive approach to defer the major decision (while using that time to continue collecting information) is going to pay off or not.  I think to date, it's been pretty effective, but that time may soon come to an end.

[RobinThicc]

They should trade him.

he’s not coming back

[glory]

Yeah the window to trade Vlad before the season is probably closed right now. Teams that needed 1B have already filled their spots, and the Jays are now at a position of weakness in trade talks with this being so public, so it probably doesn't even make sense to trade him now. Just keep him and Bo, hope both of them ball out, and then hope it leads to a playoff berth. That's really all they can do at this point. 

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

The problem here is that they should have already traded him if they were that far apart (as it's been implied) on their numbers with Vlad. 

Because you are in a worse position in lots of ways like I noted earlier. If they do well, then Vlad is going to get that ridiculous contract, and the Jays are like a 50/50 shot to make the post season. Nice if they do, but they may also be close and miss like you're saying which is worst case. Either way in that case Vlad's valuation across the league is higher cause he's putting together back to back good years and he goes elsewhere maybe. 

If we suck, then there's a decent chance that Vlad is also not doing that well, in which case he's going to fetch less value at the deadline (which is already less value because a team is not getting a full season of Vlad). 

I don't think there's a positive spin here, I think this situation mostly sucks. You listed a bunch of potential scenarios earlier where some did not end badly for the Jays, but I think on a percentage basis, the worse group of scenarios are statistically likelier by a chunk. 

There's a good possibility that Vlad already values himself as if he the repeated 2021 season for the past 3 years (man it would be great to know the truth).

If he does repeat 2021/2024 again, than yes, his valuation may climb.  Maybe that's what the Jays need to see to commit the extra money.  They'll certainly have more competition at that point, but you really can't afford to "miss" on some 10-12 year $450M deal.  More information helps Toronto (and others).

If he isn't as good this year - let's say he repeats 2022, then he's humbled a bit and there's still a chance he resigns with the Jays, or perhaps he was never worth that type of mega deal and he leaves for a comp pick.  If he's not a "special" hitter worth a mega deal, then he's a lot more replaceable and the only "miss" we have is what he would have fetched via trade early this offseason.  Of course the Jays and the FO seemed fully committed to competing in 2025, so that was probably never a real option anyway (whether you like it or not - and I do not).

[glory]

Quote

"In my mind," Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said earlier this month, "I'm the best in the world."

That was a Vlad quote from August 2024. I don't think his opinion of himself was any different after 2022 or even 2023. You don't get that cocky overnight. The chances of an extension looking at it in hindsight were probably next to zero. The Jays weren't going to sign a non team friendly contract early (Vlad was never going to take a team friendly one either), and after 2022-23, the two sides likely weren't on the same planet as far as perceived value. The people saying they should have locked him up when his value was lower don't realize that there probably wasn't a single moment that Vlad thought he wasn't a lot better than he actually was. We were likely destined to get to this exact spot regardless.