General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[L54]

I shouldn’t have said re signed 

I should’ve said extended 

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Kind of funny seeing certain Jays fans freaking out about the Jays not signing Bo or Vlad yet, acting like they have been these amazing core players that the Jays FO should have bent the knee to long ago and given them massive long term deals, and then spend the next 10+ years trying to build around these two as they hit 30 and beyond. 

It's a struggle to build a winner around these guys while they're young and cheap, never mind what it might be like to do it as they age and have boat anchor contracts.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

Would any team give him a Lindor/Correa/Seager/Boegarts contract if he had a big bounce back year?  I can't see it because of his defensive reputation but timing/supply/demand may be in his favour to get something pretty decent. 

I don't believe Bo has ever produced a peak season sufficient to garner those types of deals. Perhaps if he produced a 6+ win season where he took a step forward defensively he could get closer to the contractual stratosphere of the listed players.

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

Would any team give him a Lindor/Correa/Seager/Boegarts contract if he had a big bounce back year?  I can't see it because of his defensive reputation but timing/supply/demand may be in his favour to get something pretty decent. 

I see him getting a little more than what Adames signed for.

[Stangstag]

5 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Kind of funny seeing certain Jays fans freaking out about the Jays not signing Bo or Vlad yet, acting like they have been these amazing core players that the Jays FO should have bent the knee to long ago and given them massive long term deals, and then spend the next 10+ years trying to build around these two as they hit 30 and beyond. 

It's a struggle to build a winner around these guys while they're young and cheap, never mind what it might be like to do it as they age and have boat anchor contracts.

Yeah. The reality is, they haven’t really lived up to expectations. We have 0 playoff wins with this core. Im not tripping over my heels screaming for the front office to sign either of these guys.

Most “fans” probably couldn’t name 3 other first basemen in the league

[Spanky99]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

A bounce back year and Bo gets the Willy Adames deal easy 

His deal immediately came to mind.

[Spanky99]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

A bounce back year and Bo gets the Willy Adames deal easy 

His deal immediately came to mind.

[BB17]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

I don't believe Bo has ever produced a peak season sufficient to garner those types of deals. Perhaps if he produced a 6+ win season where he took a step forward defensively he could get closer to the contractual stratosphere of the listed players.

I read this in Atkins voice.

[Brownie19]

Assessing the Blue Jays' offseason plan and execution 

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3216725

-----------

Interesting little article.  Says Fangraphs has us projected for 91 wins and PECOTA is less optimistic at 85 wins.

I'm comfortable going into the season as is.  But they need to be ready to make adjustments promptly.

[BB17]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Assessing the Blue Jays' offseason plan and execution 

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3216725

-----------

Interesting little article.  Says Fangraphs has us projected for 91 wins and PECOTA is less optimistic at 85 wins.

I'm comfortable going into the season as is.  But they need to be ready to make adjustments promptly.

Something doesn't add up here. FG has the Jays at 81.6 Wins with a 37% chance of making the playoffs.

Even FG Depth Charts page has the Jays at 44 WAR total 11th in MLB. 11th in the majors wouldn't be a 91 win team.

[Nexii]

FG depth charts overstate playing time based on roster construction, the page itself says its not the 'true' team WAR. 

And then you have Vegas wins which have us at around 78.5. Some of that is probably all the outcomes where we're deadline sellers again.

The thing about win projections is there's a lot of unpredictability, 1 std devation is like 7.5 wins

[Carlos Danger]

15 hours ago, BB17 said:

I read this in Atkins voice.

Agree. I finally had a chance to watch/listen to the interview. In addition, this deadline is not the same as a trade deadline where other market factors are in play.

Ross, didn't impart any confidence in me a deal is getting done. Probably a good thing.  Ross is such a word salad of saying nothing and corporate baseball BS. Really, he said nothing except his mouth was moving. Ross is the Kamala Harris interview of the baseball executive circuit.

My opinion is if you haven't hammered something out by now, there is probably too much of a gap and it is not going to happen in 48hrs plus hrs.

I can also see from a business only stand-point from both sides, letting Vlad go to FA. The Blue Jays would have one additional year of data and they can always bid in FA and end up paying what it would take to do an extension anyway. Depending on Vlad's season the Soto type money might not be there as a 1b or they would have to pay in the ballpark of what Vlad want's now for an extension anyway. 

The caveat is, if he is not signed by Monday, they need to trade him by the deadline. Would be a disaster to have some false WS hope and let him go to FA for a comp pick.

 

 

 

[BatFlip]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Something doesn't add up here. FG has the Jays at 81.6 Wins with a 37% chance of making the playoffs.

Even FG Depth Charts page has the Jays at 44 WAR total 11th in MLB. 11th in the majors wouldn't be a 91 win team.

You might be splitting hairs on this one.  11th in the MLB last year was 88 wins and a playoff team. 

FG Depth Charts currently has the Jays 0.4 WAR back of the 9th place team which would put them in the 88-90 win range.

I would agree they're no lock for the playoffs though, and I'm still hoping for another meaningful add to the team.

[BB17]

23 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

You might be splitting hairs on this one.  11th in the MLB last year was 88 wins and a playoff team. 

FG Depth Charts currently has the Jays 0.4 WAR back of the 9th place team which would put them in the 88-90 win range.

I would agree they're no lock for the playoffs though, and I'm still hoping for another meaningful add to the team.

Well FG predicted standings has them has a 81-82 wins, I wouldn't say that's splitting hairs. While I don't think the Jays are a bad team by any means I would agree they seem to have a less than even chance at the playoffs with the current roster. Doesn't mean things can't break their way and they get to 90 wins but the pitching could also break down just as easily and see them fall short of expectations.

[BatFlip]

39 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Well FG predicted standings has them has a 81-82 wins, I wouldn't say that's splitting hairs. While I don't think the Jays are a bad team by any means I would agree they seem to have a less than even chance at the playoffs with the current roster. Doesn't mean things can't break their way and they get to 90 wins but the pitching could also break down just as easily and see them fall short of expectations.

Yeah, I don't disagree with any of that.  

[Nexii]

Fangraphs predicted standings are always very conservative (i.e. trending closer to .500) than other sites. Like Vegas has Dodgers at around 104 wins but FG has 97.

I think of the Jays as like an 84 win team. Really hoping we add a reliever or two because it could be the difference once again

[Carlos Danger]

Can Wagner play 3B?

[BB17]

30 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Fangraphs predicted standings are always very conservative (i.e. trending closer to .500) than other sites. Like Vegas has Dodgers at around 104 wins but FG has 97.

I think of the Jays as like an 84 win team. Really hoping we add a reliever or two because it could be the difference once again

Also Vegas odds usually have some deadline influence as well. Usually the bad teams sell/get worse or let young players play and the good teams add at the deadline.

It can be true that there are a bunch of 80-85 win teams but more than likely by the end of the season there is just as many 90 win teams as there usually is because of variance etc etc.

[BB17]

36 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

Can Wagner play 3B?

He had a 40 arm according to scouting reports but let the Jays 2B last year with 79MPH from 2nd so it seems theoretically he has the arm for it and has played 3rd in the minors a bit. From what I saw last year he didn't seem awful at 2nd but the footwork/actions is a lot different from the left side of the infield so I guess we'll see.

Schneider wasn't terrible at 2nd but he looked horrible at 3rd in 2023. Biggio spent some time at 3rd and didn't look awful so you hope Wagner could transition. 

If he can play 3rd at close to an average level it would do wonders for the offence vs RHP. You could still have Ernie come in for defense later in the game and against LHP.

[Hipfan]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Well FG predicted standings has them has a 81-82 wins, I wouldn't say that's splitting hairs. While I don't think the Jays are a bad team by any means I would agree they seem to have a less than even chance at the playoffs with the current roster. Doesn't mean things can't break their way and they get to 90 wins but the pitching could also break down just as easily and see them fall short of expectations.

I guess this is why they actually play the games? 🤷‍♂️ Jays should be interesting to watch and it feels like it's going to be either a tire fire (like last year) or playoffs.

If one or two of the younger players takes off, Vlad and Bo play to their norms, and you get 30ish starts from each of the top 4 in the rotation, they will be good.

If Vlad or Bo have another down year, no young guys step up, and a couple of the rotation arms start to feel the effects of Father Time, things will be very, very bleak.

The Jays are weird; they are trying to bring along young unproven plays while also hoping an aging core can keep it together for another year. Most teams in this situation (fringe playoffs) are usually one or the other, not both. 

 

 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Carlos Danger said:

My opinion is if you haven't hammered something out by now, there is probably too much of a gap and it is not going to happen in 48hrs plus hrs.

I don't buy this at all. It's very common for negotiations to go down to the last minute.  Most feel you won't get their best offer until that pressure is on.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't buy this at all. It's very common for negotiations to go down to the last minute.  Most feel you won't get their best offer until that pressure is on.

Yeah neither side is giving their best offer until the deadline. Even then, the deadline is artificial so you'll probably get a little more back and forth afterward at some point.

[Spanky99]

What are you guys talking about in concern to Vegas? They pin an over under on betting wins, this moves up and down by action wagered on the outcome, it has little to nothing to do with the actual team. lol 

[Spanky99]

4 hours ago, Carlos Danger said:

Agree. I finally had a chance to watch/listen to the interview. In addition, this deadline is not the same as a trade deadline where other market factors are in play.

Ross, didn't impart any confidence in me a deal is getting done. Probably a good thing.  Ross is such a word salad of saying nothing and corporate baseball BS. Really, he said nothing except his mouth was moving. Ross is the Kamala Harris interview of the baseball executive circuit.

My opinion is if you haven't hammered something out by now, there is probably too much of a gap and it is not going to happen in 48hrs plus hrs.

I can also see from a business only stand-point from both sides, letting Vlad go to FA. The Blue Jays would have one additional year of data and they can always bid in FA and end up paying what it would take to do an extension anyway. Depending on Vlad's season the Soto type money might not be there as a 1b or they would have to pay in the ballpark of what Vlad want's now for an extension anyway. 

The caveat is, if he is not signed by Monday, they need to trade him by the deadline. Would be a disaster to have some false WS hope and let him go to FA for a comp pick.

 

 

 

Speaking of word salad, lol.

[Spanky99]

6 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Assessing the Blue Jays' offseason plan and execution 

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3216725

-----------

Interesting little article.  Says Fangraphs has us projected for 91 wins and PECOTA is less optimistic at 85 wins.

I'm comfortable going into the season as is.  But they need to be ready to make adjustments promptly.

That makes more sense to me, thanks for sharing!

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't buy this at all. It's very common for negotiations to go down to the last minute.  Most feel you won't get their best offer until that pressure is on.

I feel the same, and when they get close, that'll end up being a soft deadline.

[Spanky99]

6 hours ago, BB17 said:

Something doesn't add up here. FG has the Jays at 81.6 Wins with a 37% chance of making the playoffs.

Even FG Depth Charts page has the Jays at 44 WAR total 11th in MLB. 11th in the majors wouldn't be a 91 win team.

The difference in team total fWAR and Standing projections would be strength of schedule, right? You kind of said so yourself yesterday in concerns of our bloodbath division, that's what I get out of this conundrum.

[Gen.Disarray]

So for the Jays to make the playoffs and do some damage when they get there, a lot of things need to go right, or at least not go horribly wrong. Vladdy keeps it up, Bo bounces back, Rotation health, big step up from the pen, possible surprise season from someone, etc.

Question - Other than Vlad or Bo, who do you think is the most likely candidate to put up a 5+ win season and what would it look like? 

Varsho or Gimenez? Defense as usual and they hit better than expected.

Kirk? Maintains defense with a big offensive season.

Springer? Huge bounce back despite the batspeed.

Someone else, one of the kids maybe? I feel like last season is probably Santander's ceiling, maybe Orelvis comes up and just mashes like crazy?

Whatchu got, people?

[Carlos Danger]

5 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't buy this at all. It's very common for negotiations to go down to the last minute.  Most feel you won't get their best offer until that pressure is on.

If this were a trade deadline I would agree.  From Vlad’s side, the only thing that happens is that they go to FA or waive their self imposed deadline later in the season. Where is the pressure for Vlad’s side to budge…???? 

[gruber9292]

On 2/14/2025 at 11:26 AM, Maahfaace said:

Anyone else get the vibe from Ross' comments the other day that the vlad extension is not happening? Felt like save face comment from him.

I have a feeling that if Bo has a good year, management would prefer to extend him instead of Vladdy.