General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, Barrelsandbombs said:

And Kirk too, unless I missed his settlement number getting reported.

10 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

At work checking in on the mobile?

Arb deadline come and gone? We are going to Arb with Vladdy again?

 

Seems like we're purposely keeping the fatties waiting.  Longer they wait, better chance they get hungry and sign whatever the Jays propose lol

[jerb]

25 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

At work checking in on the mobile?

Arb deadline come and gone? We are going to Arb with Vladdy again?

 

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, jerb said:

40 fWAR... so roughly an 85 projected win team, right now.

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, Barrelsandbombs said:

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects them for 39.3 WAR, so it seems ZiPS is lower on the Blue Jays than Depth Charts (which IIRC use Steamer projections).

Depth Charts also projects the Blue Jays to be the 5th worst team in the American League, so unless ZiPS is also much lower on numerous other teams, ZiPS likely also projects the Blue Jays to finish around 5th worst in the American League.

Correct on the former, and most likely on the latter, ughh...

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Nah that's probably not good enough. 82-84 wins? 
It's a team that COULD make the playoffs but much more likely they end up selling and project poorly post trade deadline and end up in the 70s again. 

I believe the Jays played above 500 baseball after the deadline last year, hah! 

[Carlos Danger]

28 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

 

Seems like we're purposely keeping the fatties waiting.  Longer they wait, better chance they get hungry and sign whatever the Jays propose lol

I was literally thinking that before I read your post. Some weight challenged person discrimination going on from Mark and Ross. ;)

[Spanky99]

4 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

I was literally thinking that before I read your post. Some weight challenged person discrimination going on from Mark and Ross. ;)

Or they're extending both of them.  Dun... Dun...Daaaaa!!!

[glory]

Wouldn’t surprise me if Kirk is extended. The catching depth within the organization is horrendous. 

[max silver]

45 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

 

Seems like we're purposely keeping the fatties waiting.  Longer they wait, better chance they get hungry and sign whatever the Jays propose lol

[BB17]

I'll take the under on 85 wins if this is the current roster. Pretty sure Vegas has them at 76.5 or something.

The outfield really could be improved.

[xposbrad]

21 minutes ago, glory said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if Kirk is extended. The depth within the organization is horrendous. 

fixed

[Laika]

12 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I'll take the under on 85 wins if this is the current roster. Pretty sure Vegas has them at 76.5 or something.

The outfield really could be improved.

Easy over on that Vegas number though! 

[BB17]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Easy over on that Vegas number though! 

I mean if they are in 5 games out of the wildcard at the deadline they likely fire sale the team and ship out Vladdy, Bo, Gauseman, Bassit, Berrios and more. In that scenario they very likely finish below 75 wins just like last season.

 

I mean the team right now looks considerably worse than it did last offseason.

[Carlos Danger]

I guess since the hard deadline is 8 pm ET there is technically still time. However, if there is no agreement with Vlad by now with months to prepare/discuss.. I am not holding my breadth. 

 

My gut tells me Jays are at high $29/$30 mil and Vlad is asking for $33/$34. 

Regardless, if the Jays go to arb this year, I just can’t see them signing Vlad. It says to me there is too far a gap in overall value assessment. 

[wilko]

5 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

I guess since the hard deadline is 8 pm ET there is technically still time. However, if there is no agreement with Vlad by now with months to prepare/discuss.. I am not holding my breadth. 

 

My gut tells me Jays are at high $29/$30 mil and Vlad is asking for $33/$34. 

Regardless, if the Jays go to arb this year, I just can’t see them signing Vlad. It says to me there is too far a gap in overall value assessment. 

Feels like that might happen. Poor Vladdy sitting in a conference room eating lunchables watching slides and pie charts showing how fat he is. 

[saskjayfan]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

Yeah you aren't wrong. Offense definitely gets paid more.

That said, Gimenez isn't just good at defense, he's godly. Perhaps the Daulton Varsho of the infield and that's really valuable. Especially when he's projected to be a decent hitter and baserunner too.

He's not a decent hitter.  He's a below average hitter.  He'll project as a below average hitter next year.

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

He's not a decent hitter.  He's a below average hitter.  He'll project as a below average hitter next year.

Steamer projects him to have a 103 wRC+ which is 3% better than average. 

[max silver]

Just now, Terminator said:

Steamer projects him to have a 103 wRC+ which is 3% better than average. 

That's exactly the same as his overall career wRC+ as well. And ZiPS has him projected for close to 4 wins which would just have to rely on bouncing back offensively. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

Steamer projects him to have a 103 wRC+ which is 3% better than average. 

That's also his career wRC+ over 2200 PA's

[saskjayfan]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Steamer projects him to have a 103 wRC+ which is 3% better than average. 

 

6 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

That's also his career wRC+ over 2200 PA's

 

6 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

That's also his career wRC+ over 2200 PA's

Yeah, and next year he will project as a below avg hitter.  His career xwoba if .302 and league average is .315.  His numbers are trending down and he had a .353 Babip in his one good year.   The bat is trending down.  When a young player is trending down, this is more likely the league has more data on you've been exposed.  You can all line up and tell me I'm a moron at the end of the season when he posts a 120 OPS+.  It's going to be crickets in here when he posts an 87 OPS+

[saskjayfan]

12 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

That's also his career wRC+ over 2200 PA's

xwoba 20 .303 small sample size.  21 .268 slightly larger sample size still small.  22 .326 146 games.  He's broken out.  23.  .297 He'll bounce back.  24.  .296 Ahh...2 years in a row.   25.  .290....ahh..he might not be very good. 

Dalton Varsho xwoba 20 .288 21 .323 A star is born.  Above average bat with crazy defensive skills.  22.  .298.  No worries he'll bounce back.  23 .302 ahh still not great.   24.  .261...f***, he's not a great hitter but he's still a great defender.  

Giminez is just 1 year behind Varsho.  

 

[Blue balls]

8 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

 

 

Yeah, and next year he will project as a below avg hitter.  His career xwoba if .302 and league average is .315.  His numbers are trending down and he had a .353 Babip in his one good year.   The bat is trending down.  When a young player is trending down, this is more likely the league has more data on you've been exposed.  You can all line up and tell me I'm a moron at the end of the season when he posts a 120 OPS+.  It's going to be crickets in here when he posts an 87 OPS+

I understand your concerns. It’s not like the organization has had great success of turning struggling batters around the last three years.

I still like the acquisition though. Would like it even more if we had more big bats to advance him when his average numbers bring him on base.

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, Carlos Danger said:

I guess since the hard deadline is 8 pm ET there is technically still time. However, if there is no agreement with Vlad by now with months to prepare/discuss.. I am not holding my breadth. 

 

My gut tells me Jays are at high $29/$30 mil and Vlad is asking for $33/$34. 

Regardless, if the Jays go to arb this year, I just can’t see them signing Vlad. It says to me there is too far a gap in overall value assessment. 

He left them with 10/400 so 40AAV and after the ludicrous contract Soto signed so 40M AAV apparently he wants 450, that's a lot of $$$. It's  not an easy decision by any means. Direction would be nice though. We're all still waiting.

 

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, Spanky99 said:

He left them with 10/400 so 40AAV and after the ludicrous contract Soto signed so 40M AAV apparently he wants 450, that's a lot of $$$. It's  not an easy decision by any means. Direction would be nice though. We're all still waiting.

 

I wonder if Vlad actually cares about the years.

10 years/450 mil would saddle the team with quite the tax burden. 15/450 would lessen the load considerably and I wonder if he really cares about possible FA contracts from age 36-40 when we are talking about that much dough.

[Blue balls]

10 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

He left them with 10/400 so 40AAV and after the ludicrous contract Soto signed so 40M AAV apparently he wants 450, that's a lot of $$$. It's  not an easy decision by any means. Direction would be nice though. We're all still waiting.

 

Was there anything said about the number of years ? I don’t remember seeing 10 years anywhere but I do remember reading the media cranking the aav up when Soto signed. I assume when I saw mentions of 500M it was based on a 15 years contract.

[Spanky99]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I wonder if Vlad actually cares about the years.

10 years/450 mil would saddle the team with quite the tax burden. 15/450 would lessen the load considerably and I wonder if he really cares about possible FA contracts from age 36-40 when we are talking about that much dough.

Not sure if he will, was told Bo is done, he's walking. With the likelihood of Vlad as well, actually chatting with BC, right now. Hah!

[max silver]

50 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

xwoba 20 .303 small sample size.  21 .268 slightly larger sample size still small.  22 .326 146 games.  He's broken out.  23.  .297 He'll bounce back.  24.  .296 Ahh...2 years in a row.   25.  .290....ahh..he might not be very good. 

Dalton Varsho xwoba 20 .288 21 .323 A star is born.  Above average bat with crazy defensive skills.  22.  .298.  No worries he'll bounce back.  23 .302 ahh still not great.   24.  .261...f***, he's not a great hitter but he's still a great defender.  

Giminez is just 1 year behind Varsho.  

 

You seem to misunderstand that xwOBA is not a measure of the actual result, it's more of a measure of the aspects of offensive output within a players control. Gimenez has managed to outproduce his xwOBA's in 3 of his 5 seasons in MLB. At the same time you seem to be ignoring the fact that he actually underproduced his xwOBA by a fair margin last season, and that by simply seeing this even out he would have been close to a league average bat.

[Spanky99]

15 minutes ago, Blue balls said:

Was there anything said about the number of years ? I don’t remember seeing 10 years anywhere but I do remember reading the media cranking the aav up when Soto signed. I assume when I saw mentions of 500M it was based on a 15 years contract.

This is what was leaked to me back in late November... 

Quote

Vlad wants 10/400+ Waiting on Soto and Alonso. That's why nothing done. And May never be.

 

[Blue balls]

8 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

This is what was leaked to me back in late November... 

 

40 AAV can buy unlimited amounts of sweets, tacos, hot dogs and burgers… it’s a scary number !!! 😅

30AAV can do the same but whatever, it doesn’t feel as painful !

[Laika]

25 minutes ago, max silver said:

You seem to misunderstand that xwOBA is not a measure of the actual result, it's more of a measure of the aspects of offensive output within a players control. Gimenez has managed to outproduce his xwOBA's in 3 of his 5 seasons in MLB. At the same time you seem to be ignoring the fact that he actually underproduced his xwOBA by a fair margin last season, and that by simply seeing this even out he would have been close to a league average bat.

Also he's young enough that we should still project improvement for another year or two