Around Baseball 2025

[Terminator]

Congratulations to the poverty-stricken Rays on reattaching the roof to their stadium

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, Terminator said:

Congratulations to the poverty-stricken Rays on reattaching the roof to their stadium

Watched the 'Who killed the Montreal Expos' documentary and it was the stadium that killed them and ironically the stadium is still killing any chance of a team playing there even for a year.  Like Rays could have played there this past season, but they were doing a 870 million roof renovation which will take four years.

So Expos in 2000 or so tried to fund a 200 million baseball only beauty.  And the politicians would have none of it because they couldn't justify helping fund this when baby's need medicine and such.

That is fine.  If that is your values.  But it's complete ********.  How much have they put into Olympic Statdium over the years?  Like one roof patch of big O probably costed as much as downtown outdoor stadium.  So Billlions with a B wasted on it over the years.  It is insane.  They wouldn't build a nice baseball only downtown thing, Pittsburgh style, but will continually waste money on the big O. 

1.  200 million in 2000 for downtown Montreal Gem 

2.  Stop funding any maintenance to big O and probably over the years save 1 billion.

3.  Use the difference to save the babies and get them medicine. 

4.  Have baseball and saved babies.  But current strategy they presumably killed a lot of baby's because they used their medicine money fixing big O 

Just everything that is wrong with our society.... and don't get me wrong, if the people want to feed the baby's instead of downtown stadium... absolutely fine.  BUt then don't fund any Big O maintenance if those are your values. 

[Olerud363.354]

If confused by my last post watch the documentary.  Corrupt Quebec politicians saying they won't help fund stadium for millionaire baseball players when babies need medicine or something.

But much more goes into Big O roof repairs.   Anyone live in Montreal?  Excited for 2028 and the new roof?  God.  Could have had a downtown stadium and the Rays for that 870 million. 

[Orgfiller]

Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton both non-tendered by the Yankees. Potentially decent cheap options for middle relief depth. Aaron Boone used Leiter like the second coming of Andrew Miller, but he’s actually been pretty good for the last 3 seasons despite the mixed results in 2025. Use him in low to medium leverage and he could be a valuable part of a bullpen.

[jaysblue]

Some interesting names non-tendered:

- JJ Bleday

- Adolis Garcia

- Ian Hamilton

- Mark Leiter Jr.

- Evan Phillips

- Ramon Urias

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton both non-tendered by the Yankees. Potentially decent cheap options for middle relief depth. Aaron Boone used Leiter like the second coming of Andrew Miller, but he’s actually been pretty good for the last 3 seasons despite the mixed results in 2025. Use him in low to medium leverage and he could be a valuable part of a bullpen.

Both arms offer some nice K upside and have had success before. Definitely could be decent cheap middle relief options. 

[Stangstag]

15 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Both arms offer some nice K upside and have had success before. Definitely could be decent cheap middle relief options. 

Leiter is such a gascan, no thx

[jaysblue]

10 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Leiter is such a gascan, no thx

Solid FIP numbers still and one year removed from posting a 1.1 WAR season and a 13.34 K/9. As a middle reliever who is like 5th/6th on your BP depth charts, not bad. On a one-year deal worth $3-4M wouldn't be a bad gamble. 

I would aim higher at the back end of the BP, though if money is limited to signing bats and another SP, have to look at some cheap BP options.

Cubs just resigned Phil Maton to a two-year deal. Not sure what the AAV is. 

 

[BTS]

Mike Elias is talking about the QO compensation as a consideration in the Ward/Gray-Rod. Most likely they'd just end up paying a 33-year old 2-win corner OF 23M in 2027. 

 

Elias cited Ward as a potential qualifying offer candidate heading into free agency, “so that could change that equation a little bit” in terms of “the mismatch in the amount of potential team control.”

[Pendleton]

14 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Solid FIP numbers still and one year removed from posting a 1.1 WAR season and a 13.34 K/9. As a middle reliever who is like 5th/6th on your BP depth charts, not bad. On a one-year deal worth $3-4M wouldn't be a bad gamble. 

I would aim higher at the back end of the BP, though if money is limited to signing bats and another SP, have to look at some cheap BP options.

Cubs just resigned Phil Maton to a two-year deal. Not sure what the AAV is. 

 

Leiter is a reverse split guy -  RHP who has one of the top K rates in the league against lefty hitters. Fisher actually has similar reverse splits, but better. 

[glory]

 

[G-Snarls]

Mets are presumably now out on Bo Bichette at least 

[BTS]

Interesting move. Texas doesn't have an obvious replacement at 2B. 

[Angrioter]

1 minute ago, BTS said:

Interesting move. Texas doesn't have an obvious replacement at 2B. 

Bo Bichette new home? 

[hanton]

What a strange trade

Nimmo 8 yrs/$162M (23-30)

Marcus Semien 7 yrs/$175M (22-28)

 

[Jays24]

Texas blew everyone out of the water for Semien... are they lining up to do the same for Bo? 

[Stangstag]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

Texas blew everyone out of the water for Semien... are they lining up to do the same for Bo? 

God I hope not. Although hard to see Bo signing there IMO.

He either comes back to the Jays or goes to a clear competitor I think

[Perfect Game]

17 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Texas blew everyone out of the water for Semien... are they lining up to do the same for Bo? 

I doubt it. IIRC they're looking to cut payroll. Shopping Seager too if rumors are true & honestly, I just can't see Bo having any interest in Texas.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I imagine the Mets are trying very hard to land Tucker.

Not that this trade would make much difference with that.

[glory]

Yeah this probably hurts the Jays a bit if it opens up the OF market for the Mets. Of course the GM of the Mets is Stearns who usually prefers the less sexy (i.e. less expensive) splashes with a chance to overshoot their financial commitment. Soto was a Cohen move. Not sure if Tucker will be considered the same. 

[Jays24]

31 minutes ago, Perfect Game said:

I doubt it. IIRC they're looking to cut payroll. Shopping Seager too if rumors are true & honestly, I just can't see Bo having any interest in Texas.

I hope so too but money talks man.  No one had Semien going to Texas either.  

[Stangstag]

32 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I hope so too but money talks man.  No one had Semien going to Texas either.  

Semien played most of his career in Oakland up to that point. Not really the same scenario 

[Laika]

Fun baseball trade. 

I like both players quite a bit, just solid f***ing baseball players 

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, hanton said:

What a strange trade

Nimmo 8 yrs/$162M (23-30)

Marcus Semien 7 yrs/$175M (22-28)

 

How is it strange? That's what you call a great challenge trade.

Both teams swapped players who were 30+ on big contracts, hoping maybe a change of scenery gives either an extra boost. 

Never thought of it, but Berrios for Semien would have been good and could have made sense haha. 

[jaysblue]

Nimmo has the higher floor since he seems like he should be good for 3 WAR regardless and offensively won't hurt you as much. He's also three years younger. 

Semien has higher upside if he can return to being a 4+ WAR player, which he's only one-year removed from. Two-years removed from a 6.5 WAR season. He's 35 now though which is a concern. Worst case, his floor is a 2-3 WAR second baseman over a full season as he proved in 2025, though offensively he could be awful if relying on him as a major bat. 

Like the trade a lot overall from both perspectives. Me personally, I would take the chance on Semien since he gives you a solid glove at second base and if there is a possible dead cat bounce in him, he's capable of putting together a 5-6 WAR season. 

[Ryu In My House]

On 11/21/2025 at 5:56 PM, Orgfiller said:

Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton both non-tendered by the Yankees. Potentially decent cheap options for middle relief depth. Aaron Boone used Leiter like the second coming of Andrew Miller, but he’s actually been pretty good for the last 3 seasons despite the mixed results in 2025. Use him in low to medium leverage and he could be a valuable part of a bullpen.

I am very interested in Mark Leiter Jr. That would be a great pickup.

[Laika]

I am thinking about this Nimmo deal and I don't get it for Texas very much at all 

Nimmo is 33 and has gone 2.8 and 3.0 WAR last two years and projects for 2.5

Semien is 35 and has gone 4.3 and 2.1 WAR last two years and projects for 3.0 

Semien being owed 26, 26, 20 vs Nimmo being owed 20.5 for 5 years --> I think I'd rather just keep the guy with only three years left committed. 

I actually have Semien being worth a bit of surplus vs Nimmo being a negative if you use FGDC projections (see chart). Of course, if you think the projections are wrong and start Nimmo at 3.0 and Semien at 2.5 this flips around and Nimmo becomes a +12M surplus and Semien becomes a -4M.

Both seem like the kind of guys you just go year to year with on expectations, they could be replacement level talents tomorrow if something falls apart. Semien was a +7 2B last year while Nimmo was a neutral corner outfielder. 

Player A								Player B
YEAR	AGE	PROJ WAR	$/WAR	PROJ VALUE	SALARY	SURPLUS VALUE		YEAR	AGE	PROJ WAR	$/WAR	PROJ VALUE	SALARY	SURPLUS VALUE
2026	32	2.5	11	27.5	20.5	7		2026	35	3	11	33	26	7
2027	33	2	11.33	22.66	20.5	2.16		2027	36	2.5	11.33	28.325	26	2.325
2028	34	1.5	11.6699	17.50485	20.5	-2.99515		2028	37	2	11.6699	23.3398	20	3.3398
2029	35	1	12.02	12.019997	20.5	-8.480003
2030	36	0.5	12.3806	6.190298455	20.5	-14.30970155
SUMS						-16.62485455								12.6648

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Nimmo has the higher floor since he seems like he should be good for 3 WAR regardless and offensively won't hurt you as much. He's also three years younger. 

Semien has higher upside if he can return to being a 4+ WAR player, which he's only one-year removed from. Two-years removed from a 6.5 WAR season. He's 35 now though which is a concern. Worst case, his floor is a 2-3 WAR second baseman over a full season as he proved in 2025, though offensively he could be awful if relying on him as a major bat. 

Like the trade a lot overall from both perspectives. Me personally, I would take the chance on Semien since he gives you a solid glove at second base and if there is a possible dead cat bounce in him, he's capable of putting together a 5-6 WAR season. 

Meh, I'd rather the safer play in Bo and keeping Berrios. Not to mention JB wouldn't really be a fit for Texas, this as you said was a challenge trade for need. I like the Nimmo side to be honest, Semien's old as dirt and owed a ton.

[Spanky__99]

Quote

Of course, if you think the projections are wrong and start Nimmo at 3.0 and Semien at 2.5 this flips around and Nimmo becomes a +12M surplus and Semien becomes a -4M.

This Laika... 👆

Semien really hasn't hit all that well the last 2 seasons and is old, that contract looks like a train wreck to me. Both have warts I guess but give me the younger guy. 

[hanton]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

How is it strange? That's what you call a great challenge trade.

Both teams swapped players who were 30+ on big contracts, hoping maybe a change of scenery gives either an extra boost. 

Never thought of it, but Berrios for Semien would have been good and could have made sense haha. 

on first seeing the trade but yea you're probably correct, "intriguing" then as MLBTradeRumors put it