Predict Vladdy's Extension Contract

[harvey16]

I say 10y/$325m gets it done. He's not signing for anything less then $300M

[hanton]

I really have no idea but if I'm Vlady I test FA

[Olerud363]

I say 10y/$325m gets it done. He's not signing for anything less then $300M

 

I'll say 14 years 600 million. Sounds ridiculous and depends on next years numbers too but I think his agents will make a bunch of arguments (I'm not saying I think these arguments are true, I am saying his agents will likely create a report claiming a lot of this).

 

1. Ceiling is as high as Judge and Soto and has reached that ceiling for 4 to 5 month periods.

2. Numbers have been unlucky, expected numbers are higher.

3. Defense is not rated properly by some of the stats (gold glove at first, potential to play third, 95th percentile arm strength).

4. More hard hit balls in play than any other player in baseball over 5 years (probably a couple of hundred more).

5. 80 grade hit tool, strikes out half as much as Judge

6. 80 grade power. High end exit velocity and homerun distance in top 3 in baseball.

7. Most comparable players are Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera is right there through age 25 with them, when adjusting numbers for league wide offense levels. Both Cabrera and Ramirez took it to the next level after age 25. Guerrero will too.

8. Plays every game, never injured

9. Pudgy as a 4 year old Montreal Expos bat boy, and in his early 20s, but 235 pound lightning cat now!

[AMS528]

I'll say 14 years 600 million. Sounds ridiculous and depends on next years numbers too but I think his agents will make a bunch of arguments (I'm not saying I think these arguments are true, I am saying his agents will likely create a report claiming a lot of this).

 

1. Ceiling is as high as Judge and Soto and has reached that ceiling for 4 to 5 month periods.

2. Numbers have been unlucky, expected numbers are higher.

3. Defense is not rated properly by some of the stats (gold glove at first, potential to play third, 95th percentile arm strength).

4. More hard hit balls in play than any other player in baseball over 5 years (probably a couple of hundred more).

5. 80 grade hit tool, strikes out half as much as Judge

6. 80 grade power. High end exit velocity and homerun distance in top 3 in baseball.

7. Most comparable players are Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera is right there through age 25 with them, when adjusting numbers for league wide offense levels. Both Cabrera and Ramirez took it to the next level after age 25. Guerrero will too.

8. Plays every game, never injured

9. Pudgy as a 4 year old Montreal Expos bat boy, and in his early 20s, but 235 pound lightning cat now!

 

I would like to bet that it's not going to be 600 million or even 500 million. I'd bet like $500 on that easy.

[L54]

Hard to say until we see what Soto gets. That’s his closest comparable

[John_Havok]

Hard to say until we see what Soto gets. That’s his closest comparable

 

Agree with you here. I don't think Vlad signs anything until Soto's contract is a done deal.

 

With the Jays of course...

[M.E.]

I expect Atkins to f*** it up and not get him signed.

[Masterbather]

I still think the best move is to trade him and use the money elsewhere. Whatever it takes to sign him it'll be obscene.

[max silver]

I still think the best move is to trade him and use the money elsewhere. Whatever it takes to sign him it'll be obscene.

 

Vlad's natural talent gives him a shot to eventually become MLB's best hitter. It's far from a given that will occur but elite offensive performers don't grow on trees and Soto aside there simply isn't comparable talent available to spend the money on in free agency this offseason.

[jaysblue]

Yeah I think he waits until Soto signs and uses that as a benchmark.

 

Ideally, something similar to Rafael Devers (10 year, $313,500,000 contract), so would say $350M over 10 years. Though think he waits on Soto and tries to aim as high.

[Brownie19]

I expect Atkins to f*** it up and not get him signed.

 

Elaborate. If he signs for 12 years $500M - would you suggest Atkins f***ed up by not signing him to that deal?

[Olerud363]

Hard to say until we see what Soto gets. That’s his closest comparable

 

They are both .285 30 100 guys per 162. Soto gets 140 walks, Vlad 70. Soto has better defense and baserunning. It is that weird thing where it is the difference between 'below average' and 'insane bad', so some might not think of it, but it adds up to a couple WAR a year.

 

How will those advantages translate into perceived long term value? In terms of arb Soto is 15% more while 50% more in terms of fWAR value.

 

Arb is stupid, but all it takes in free agency is a stupid owner, or a smart management group who thinks they are smart enough to increase Vlad's launch angle by 3%, throttle him on the bases, and improve his footwork at third.

[Laika]

They are both .285 30 100 guys per 162. Soto gets 140 walks, Vlad 70. Soto has better defense and baserunning. It is that weird thing where it is the difference between 'below average' and 'insane bad', so some might not think of it, but it adds up to a couple WAR a year.

 

How will those advantages translate into perceived long term value? In terms of arb Soto is 15% more while 50% more in terms of fWAR value.

 

Arb is stupid, but all it takes in free agency is a stupid owner, or a smart management group who thinks they are smart enough to increase Vlad's launch angle by 3%, throttle him on the bases, and improve his footwork at third.

 

I don't think MLB front offices will have trouble identifying the gap between those two players

[Terminator]

Juan Soto?

 

600 million?

 

Surely you guys are trolling

[L54]

They are both .285 30 100 guys per 162. Soto gets 140 walks, Vlad 70. Soto has better defense and baserunning. It is that weird thing where it is the difference between 'below average' and 'insane bad', so some might not think of it, but it adds up to a couple WAR a year.

 

How will those advantages translate into perceived long term value? In terms of arb Soto is 15% more while 50% more in terms of fWAR value.

 

Arb is stupid, but all it takes in free agency is a stupid owner, or a smart management group who thinks they are smart enough to increase Vlad's launch angle by 3%, throttle him on the bases, and improve his footwork at third.

 

They are not perfect comparables but they’re both top 20 hitters with limited D who are free agents before 27. There’s no scenario where Vlad extends before Soto sets the bar

[L54]

Juan Soto?

 

600 million?

 

Surely you guys are trolling

 

One person has said that

[Terminator]

One person has said that

 

Nope, three people have mentioned Juan Soto as a comparable and one person mentioned 600 million.

[connorp]

This thread would’ve been best 3 months ago.

[connorp]

Juan Soto?

 

600 million?

 

Surely you guys are trolling

 

Time for you and JohnH to come tell us about Chris Davis and co

[connorp]

Smartest you on the board says $400m or bust for Vlads agent

[L54]

Agree with you here. I don't think Vlad signs anything until Soto's contract is a done deal.

 

With the Jays of course...

 

He’ll be in pinstripes I think

[L54]

Nope, three people have mentioned Juan Soto as a comparable and one person mentioned 600 million.

 

I only see Olerud’s post

[Laika]

You just KNOW - we all KNOW - that no matter what Vlad extends for, he is going to post a 60% GB rate and 1.4 WAR in year one of the deal.

[connorp]

You just KNOW - we all KNOW - that no matter what Vlad extends for, he is going to post a 60% GB rate and 1.4 WAR in year one of the deal.

 

For a man for science, I find this opinion to be completely devoid of science. Tell us more about how you’re “feeling”.

[L54]

You just KNOW - we all KNOW - that no matter what Vlad extends for, he is going to post a 60% GB rate and 1.4 WAR in year one of the deal.

 

Feels all too real

[connorp]

Laila, can you give me some clarification if climate change jokes fall under the umbrella of “political”, I’m not ready for my next 2 week banning yet.

[Laika]

Laila, can you give me some clarification if climate change jokes fall under the umbrella of “political”, I’m not ready for my next 2 week banning yet.

 

depends on the joke

[Laika]

Feels all too real

 

1.4 WAR in year one then 15 WAR over the next 3 years

[connorp]

depends on the joke

 

Seems fair.

[Terminator]

Nope, three people have mentioned Juan Soto as a comparable and one person mentioned 600 million.

 

I only see Olerud’s post

 

Don't be so obtuse. Here's you and jaysblue calling Juan Soto a comparable. Others chimed in with a similar sentiment.

 

Hard to say until we see what Soto gets. That’s his closest comparable

 

Yeah I think he waits until Soto signs and uses that as a benchmark.