Predict Vladdy's Extension Contract

[Terminator]

If Vlad is going to cost similar money to Soto then we should just sign Soto.

 

I think he's looking closer to Devers money though. Maybe a little bit more as contracts tend to get larger each year and I think he might be a little younger than Devers was when he signed his deal too. But he's more of a 1B which limits his market.

[Olerud363]

I only see OlerudÂ’s post

 

My post pointed out that Soto has twice as much WAR. They are not comparable in value. Last 2 years Soto was out fWARed Vlad 14-7 or so. Go back to Vlad's big season and it's still 24-16, go back to when Vlad entered the league and it's 33-17 or so.

 

My post was about what their perceived value is and will be. In Arb the money value difference is 15% with real value difference 50%.

 

Even when playing good Vlad is over-rated. So how will it play out in a irrational market? Especially if he has a big 2025 with flashy triple crown numbers.

[Laika]

If Vlad is going to cost similar money to Soto then we should just sign Soto.

 

I think he's looking closer to Devers money though. Maybe a little bit more as contracts tend to get larger each year and I think he might be a little younger than Devers was when he signed his deal too. But he's more of a 1B which limits his market.

 

Yeah on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being Devers and 10 being Soto

 

Vlad is a 1

 

He's not worth more than Devers for any objective reason

 

He might get more than Devers just because of big contract inflation, or his agent doing a better job, or the Blue Jays bending over or some combination of those things

[Omar]

Because of the Jay's lack of success and vlady's recent resurgence, the Jays will be in a tough spot going forward. Vladi has already indicated that he thinks he's the best hitter in the game and he's going to want the Moon. However, it ends with him getting extended or letting him walk after 2025, or traded in the interim. It's not going to end well from a financial or a baseball perspective.

[connorp]

Devers is Machado without the glove. Vlad >> Devers for future bet

[Terminator]

Devers is Machado without the glove. Vlad >> Devers for future bet

 

That could be right.

 

But before this season, people were talking about a Matt Olson extension for Vlad. Even now I still see some comparables. I think the big year in 2024 pushes him up from ~Olson to ~Devers territory, but he shouldn't even sniff a Soto contract.

[Olerud363]

Yeah on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being Devers and 10 being Soto

 

Vlad is a 1

 

He's not worth more than Devers for any objective reason

 

He might get more than Devers just because of big contract inflation, or his agent doing a better job, or the Blue Jays bending over or some combination of those things

 

Vlad has a 137 wRC+ and Devers 125.

 

Vlad's ceiling is way higher. He has already been top 5 in mlb history at age 18, 19, 22, and for age 25.3-25.8 (forget April this year).

 

He walks 10% and strikes out 15%. Devers is 8 and 21.

 

They are the same athletically in terms of baserunning and defense, but Devers scored better because of quirks in the system and a bit of focus issues which can be fixed. Vlad can play third.

 

He hit .370 .450 .670 in the second half with more walks than strike-outs, that is really his talent level. It really is.

 

He did all this with a sub-optimal launch angle, which Dodgers, and a couple of organizations know how to fix.

 

Only Ted Williams, 26 year old Don Mattingly and Roy Hobbs had this level of hand eye coordination with 70 grade power.... and Vlad's power is 80 grade. First guy on scouting scale to get 80 grade hit tool and 80 grade power.

 

You think I am joking but I am not. This is a 99.999th percentile talent who has frustrated us by playing like Josh Bell for months and months, but also rediscovering his 99.999th level talent for a few months too.

[L54]

Don't be so obtuse. Here's you and jaysblue calling Juan Soto a comparable. Others chimed in with a similar sentiment.

 

What are you talking about?

 

Careful you don’t hurt yourself bud

[L54]

If Vlad is going to cost similar money to Soto then we should just sign Soto.

 

I think he's looking closer to Devers money though. Maybe a little bit more as contracts tend to get larger each year and I think he might be a little younger than Devers was when he signed his deal too. But he's more of a 1B which limits his market.

 

Riveting analysis

 

If two players cost the same sign the better one

[Brownie19]

Riveting analysis

 

If two players cost the same sign the better one

 

I think he's just trying to reiterate that Soto is significantly better than Vlad. If Vlad wants and will get Soto money, then we're either trading him or letting him walk and let's try to get Soto instead.

[jaysblue]

Don't be so obtuse. Here's you and jaysblue calling Juan Soto a comparable. Others chimed in with a similar sentiment.

 

Lol good job at cutting out the first half of my post.

 

If you actually read my original comment, I said ideally he gets something similar to Rafael Devers extension and even said $350M. Afterwards I said however his agent likely waits until Soto signs and uses that as a benchmark. Never said he should get $600 or so million or that the Jays should sign him for that much. Would obviously rather Soto at the same cost lol. Just that his agent likely waits until Soto signs before signing any extension.

[Laika]

Vlad has a 137 wRC+ and Devers 125.

 

Vlad's ceiling is way higher. He has already been top 5 in mlb history at age 18, 19, 22, and for age 25.3-25.8 (forget April this year).

 

He walks 10% and strikes out 15%. Devers is 8 and 21.

 

They are the same athletically in terms of baserunning and defense, but Devers scored better because of quirks in the system and a bit of focus issues which can be fixed. Vlad can play third.

 

He hit .370 .450 .670 in the second half with more walks than strike-outs, that is really his talent level. It really is.

 

He did all this with a sub-optimal launch angle, which Dodgers, and a couple of organizations know how to fix.

 

Only Ted Williams, 26 year old Don Mattingly and Roy Hobbs had this level of hand eye coordination with 70 grade power.... and Vlad's power is 80 grade. First guy on scouting scale to get 80 grade hit tool and 80 grade power.

 

You think I am joking but I am not. This is a 99.999th percentile talent who has frustrated us by playing like Josh Bell for months and months, but also rediscovering his 99.999th level talent for a few months too.

 

Most of this doesn't actually matter though

 

5-6 years in the league, you are who you are

 

WAR is all that really matters. And broad comparables based on age, position, body type and so forth.

 

Devers ticks most of the boxes as a comp.

 

Vlad has the edge in: max power, contact ability

Devers has the edge in: positional utility, batted ball tendencies

[Terminator]

Lol good job at cutting out the first half of my post.

 

If you actually read my original comment, I said ideally he gets something similar to Rafael Devers extension and even said $350M. Afterwards I said however his agent likely waits until Soto signs and uses that as a benchmark. Never said he should get $600 or so million or that the Jays should sign him for that much. Would obviously rather Soto at the same cost lol. Just that his agent likely waits until Soto signs before signing any extension.

 

Ok I agree with your overall sentiment then. The Devers contract is where I think he lands as well.

 

But L54 did in fact call Soto a "comparable" and then you liked his post and referred to Soto (who will get 500 million) as a "benchmark". So excuse me for lumping you in there. I'll make sure to be more careful in the future.

 

But here's a thought. If you don't actually agree with something then maybe you shouldn't indiscriminately throw around the "likes" so easily? Some people might take that as a sign that you actually agree with a post. Just a thought!

[L54]

I think he's just trying to reiterate that Soto is significantly better than Vlad. If Vlad wants and will get Soto money, then we're either trading him or letting him walk and let's try to get Soto instead.

 

I think everyone knows that

[L54]

Ok I agree with your overall sentiment then. The Devers contract is where I think he lands as well.

 

But L54 did in fact call Soto a "comparable" and then you liked his post and referred to Soto (who will get 500 million) as a "benchmark". So excuse me for lumping you in there. I'll make sure to be more careful in the future.

 

But here's a thought. If you don't actually agree with something then maybe you shouldn't indiscriminately throw around the "likes" so easily? Some people might take that as a sign that you actually agree with a post. Just a thought!

 

Why didn’t you just tell us?

[jaysblue]

Ok I agree with your overall sentiment then. The Devers contract is where I think he lands as well.

 

But L54 did in fact call Soto a "comparable" and then you liked his post and referred to Soto (who will get 500 million) as a "benchmark". So excuse me for lumping you in there. I'll make sure to be more careful in the future.

 

But if you don't agree with something then maybe you shouldn't indiscriminately throw around the "likes" so easily? Some people might take it as a sign that you agree with a post. Just a thought!

 

I think his agent tries to get close to Soto money once he signs. Vladdy likely would be on board as well. I said this even a couple months ago that Vladdy doesn't even consider an extension until Soto signs. I even said it would be in the Jays best interest to re-sign Vladdy before Soto signs his crazy deal.

 

Vladdy pretty much will be the top FA of the 2026 class. If he has another monster season in 2025, he likely could get close to Soto money if a team is desperate.

 

But yeah, prefer the Devers contract as a comparable.

[Laika]

Ok I agree with your overall sentiment then. The Devers contract is where I think he lands as well.

 

But L54 did in fact call Soto a "comparable" and then you liked his post and referred to Soto (who will get 500 million) as a "benchmark". So excuse me for lumping you in there. I'll make sure to be more careful in the future.

 

But here's a thought. If you don't actually agree with something then maybe you shouldn't indiscriminately throw around the "likes" so easily? Some people might take that as a sign that you actually agree with a post. Just a thought!

 

Well, Soto is a comparable in many ways

 

It's just that the relationship between talent and contract value isn't exactly linear

[Terminator]

Yeah Vlad and Soto have comparable ages and heights

 

On the other hand Vlad's WAR output also compares to about half of Soto's and his contract will reflect that

[L54]

Of course Vlad and Soto are comparables, to argue otherwise shows a lack of pattern recognition

 

Sperm trying for a weird gotcha moment that failed

[Terminator]

Of course Vlad and Soto are comparables, to argue otherwise shows a lack of pattern recognition

 

Sperm trying for a weird gotcha moment that failed

 

Maybe the problem is I don't understand what you are saying. You said they were comparables, then you claimed no one said such thing, now you're back to saying they are comparables. It's hard to keep up.

 

I don't think Vlad will get anywhere near what Soto gets. I bet it's around ~60-65% of the total money that Soto gets. I think Devers is a much closer comparable. I would even argue that Matt Olson is a better comparable, but I think the market has moved on from that deal so Vlad will get way more than that.

 

I suppose there is a scenario where Soto comes in for Ohtani money at around 460 mil. And then Vlad gets higher than expected at 390ish? Is that what you mean? I don't see it but if that's the case I would prefer to sign Soto and let Vlad walk.

[max silver]

Maybe the problem is I don't understand what you are saying. You said they were comparables, then you claimed no one said such thing, now you're back to saying they are comparables. It's hard to keep up.

 

I don't think Vlad will get anywhere near what Soto gets. I bet it's around ~60-65% of the total money that Soto gets. I think Devers is a much closer comparable. I would even argue that Matt Olson is a better comparable, but I think the market has moved on from that deal so Vlad will get way more than that.

 

I suppose there is a scenario where Soto comes in for Ohtani money at around 460 mil. And then Vlad gets higher than expected at 390ish? Is that what you mean? I don't see it but if that's the case I would prefer to sign Soto and let Vlad walk.

 

In that case I would sign both of them if possible. The Yankees have shown this season how it's possible to build a great offense by having two elite hitters, and having two of these guys for their respective primes would set the team up offensively for the long term.

[Masterbather]

I think it'll be around 35 per season for however many years to get him locked up. I'd rather spend more for Soto. Because then you have a superstar and you have a big trade return for Vlad. It won't happen, but that would be ideal.

[Omar]

Maybe the problem is I don't understand what you are saying. You said they were comparables, then you claimed no one said such thing, now you're back to saying they are comparables. It's hard to keep up.

 

I don't think Vlad will get anywhere near what Soto gets. I bet it's around ~60-65% of the total money that Soto gets. I think Devers is a much closer comparable. I would even argue that Matt Olson is a better comparable, but I think the market has moved on from that deal so Vlad will get way more than that.

 

I suppose there is a scenario where Soto comes in for Ohtani money at around 460 mil. And then Vlad gets higher than expected at 390ish? Is that what you mean? I don't see it but if that's the case I would prefer to sign Soto and let Vlad walk.

 

Judge is making $40 per annum. Soto will get close to that, as well he should based on his age future potential. So if Soto gets $40M per for say ten years for $400M, you think Vladdy is only going to get $260M! You're dreaming. Vladdy will get 85~95% of what Soto gets. Maybe more than 95% of what Soto gets.

[Terminator]

Judge is making $40 per annum. Soto will get close to that, as well he should based on his age future potential. So if Soto gets $40M per for say ten years for $400M, you think Vladdy is only going to get $260M! You're dreaming. Vladdy will get 85~95% of what Soto gets. Maybe more than 95% of what Soto gets.

 

I think Soto gets close to 500 and Vlad gets about 300.

 

I'll be interested to see the Fangraphs Free Agency article. They usually do a pretty good job on guessing the contracts. I could be way off here.

[Laika]

Yeah the proof will be in the numbers

 

The problem with guys like jaysblue is that most of the time they just don't even have an actual opinion.

 

"he will try to get Soto money" isn't really a worthwhile opinion on the matter

 

"he will get close to Soto money if a team is desperate" is too contingent

 

everyone can just say what they think both players will get and one day we will see who is smart and who is not

 

Soto will get something like 13*41

Vlad will get more like 11*31

[L54]

Maybe the problem is I don't understand what you are saying. You said they were comparables, then you claimed no one said such thing, now you're back to saying they are comparables. It's hard to keep up.

 

I don't think Vlad will get anywhere near what Soto gets. I bet it's around ~60-65% of the total money that Soto gets. I think Devers is a much closer comparable. I would even argue that Matt Olson is a better comparable, but I think the market has moved on from that deal so Vlad will get way more than that.

 

I suppose there is a scenario where Soto comes in for Ohtani money at around 460 mil. And then Vlad gets higher than expected at 390ish? Is that what you mean? I don't see it but if that's the case I would prefer to sign Soto and let Vlad walk.

 

I honestly don’t see what’s so hard about this and I already said the following

 

They are not perfect comparables but they’re both top 20 hitters with limited D who are free agents before 27. There’s no scenario where Vlad extends before Soto sets the bar

 

I even said top 20 because I knew some retard was going to try and semantics me to death, I just didn’t expect it to be you

 

Having a comparable does not equate to having the same value. Nobody is arguing that except you. Considering the similarities and differences between the two and evaluating from there is what I mean by having a comparable

 

Like Matt Olson(!) who you referenced earlier. That’s another comparable. We wouldn’t consider Zack Wheeler or Kirby Yates good comparables because they don’t share many if any of the same characteristics.

[Terminator]

Wow, I got called the r-word!

 

Believe it or not I don't read every friggin' post of yours and I didn't see that one where you further explained to Olerud what you meant by "closest comparable" which made no sense to me.

 

If you would have just explained like you did with Olerud I would have gotten it. Instead, you did that stupid internet tough guy thing where you use snappy one-liners in order to get likes from your butt buddy jaysblue.

 

So if you'll excuse me, SIR, I finally have a better understanding of what you are saying now.

 

If anyone needs me I'll be shitposting on Orioles Hangout while eating dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets with my r-word helmet firmly strapped on to my partially functional head. GOOD NIGHT.

[John_Havok]

Yeah the proof will be in the numbers

 

The problem with guys like jaysblue is that most of the time they just don't even have an actual opinion.

 

"he will try to get Soto money" isn't really a worthwhile opinion on the matter

 

"he will get close to Soto money if a team is desperate" is too contingent

 

everyone can just say what they think both players will get and one day we will see who is smart and who is not

 

Soto will get something like 13*41

Vlad will get more like 11*31

 

I think vlad is closer to 35 than 30. Just from inflation of contracts

[Olerud363]

Most of this doesn't actually matter though

 

5-6 years in the league, you are who you are

 

WAR is all that really matters. And broad comparables based on age, position, body type and so forth.

 

Devers ticks most of the boxes as a comp.

 

Vlad has the edge in: max power, contact ability

Devers has the edge in: positional utility, batted ball tendencies

 

If this is true why don't they have a contract? Pretty simple. It is just WAR. Take a look at the fangraphs page, calculate the number, sign the contract.

 

Give him the Devers contract. He should sign it. Unless his camp thinks it's not just WAR, or they are betting that Vlad is better than his fWAR, and the market (which by market we mean 2 or 3 teams bidding on him) will think he is better than fWAR.

 

Note: I'm not personally arguing Vlad is better than his fWAR. I might be in the camp that thinks Vlad is as good as his fWAR. It doesn't matter what I think, or what 25 teams in the industry think, it matters what what about 3-5 teams think.

[Spanky99]

I don't think MLB front offices will have trouble identifying the gap between those two players

 

lmao