Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[AMS528]

This persistently comes up, but isn't quite right for the trade deadline thread especially with Bo injured through the deadline. It's going to get discussed past the trade deadline so I figured maybe a separate thread was appropriate. It's basically the two most important decision the team has to make, and really will set the expectations of where we're going for the next few years. Bo I think we know is incredibly unlikely for an extension. Vladdy by all accounts and his own words really wants to stay here for his career.

 

I am genuinely fine with a Vladdy extension at this point. He's never going to probably play to the level of whatever extension he gets cause he's such a s***** baserunner and his defense is below average, but I think I do believe in his bat to be solid at least.

 

Bo's injury filled season has potentially f***ed us. We're not going to get the value we want out of a guy who is probably not going to stay here anyways. An early offseason deal is best because we really should be targeting someone like Kim if we want to keep competing. It may just be best take what we can rather than hoping he has a good start to the year and then dealing him at next years deadline. Ideally he comes back and has a good end to the season but I'm pretty skeptical at this point.

Edited July 22, 2024 by AMS528

[bigshot84]

vladdy yes

Bo not unless he wants to move to 3 rd base

[Joltin Joe]

Both would restock farm system into a powerful one. Along with 50 million annually Jays could sign 2 pretty good stars

[Eat My Shatkins]

Both would restock farm system into a powerful one. Along with 50 million annually Jays could sign 2 pretty good stars

 

Trading a 1-2 fWAR 1B and a s***** shortstop with a f***ed calf and a .590 OPS would restock our farm system into a powerful one?

[AMS528]

Trading a 1-2 fWAR 1B and a s***** shortstop with a f***ed calf and a .590 OPS would restock our farm system into a powerful one?

 

6.3, 3.3, 1.3, 3.3 (projected) is not a 1-2 fWAR 1B. Get out of here. You don't take his worst season and decide that's the amount he produces, it's ridiculous. Vlad would get a decent return, he's the third best hitting 1B in the league this year (behind Harper and Freeman), and his value is hurt by his defense and baserunning, but teams are going to value a 140 wRC+ hitter who is still only 25 years old.

[G-Snarls]

I want them to sign Vladdy before he sees what Soto gets

 

We all think he deserves less than Soto for multiple reasons does but I doubt Vladdy sees it that way

[Spanky99]

I want them to sign Vladdy before he sees what Soto gets

 

We all think he deserves less than Soto for multiple reasons does but I doubt Vladdy sees it that way

 

Soto turned down 440 my dude, he isn't in his stratosphere.

[Terminator]

Both would restock farm system into a powerful one. Along with 50 million annually Jays could sign 2 pretty good stars

 

Yeah what if they just traded Vlad and Bo and then signed Pete Alonso and one of Kim/Adames? Re-stocked farm system and the AAV goes right into similar players.

[G-Snarls]

Soto turned down 440 my dude, he isn't in his stratosphere.

 

That's right. My God the Yankees are going to have an expensive but powerful outfield...

[John_Havok]

Yeah what if they just traded Vlad and Bo and then signed Pete Alonso and one of Kim/Adames? Re-stocked farm system and the AAV goes right into similar players.

 

I'd prefer extending Vlad, trading Bo and signing Kim/Adames, Soto and Burnes. WS 2025.

[John_Havok]

Soto turned down 440 my dude, he isn't in his stratosphere.

 

Relevant links: 1st one is there total careers compared. 2nd one just removes Soto's first season to compare euqal # of seasons.

 

https://stathead.com/baseball/vs/vladimir-guerrero-jr-vs-juan-soto

 

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=guerre002vla&p1yrfrom=2019&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=soto--003jua&p2yrfrom=2019&p2yrto=2024

[Jimcanuck]

Soto is re-signing with the resurgent Nats.

[Stangstag]

Soto turned down 440 my dude, he isn't in his stratosphere.

 

Yeah Soto is a better hitter than Vlad, can play an OF position, and has a WS ring where he contributed with numerous clutch hits.

 

Vlad has 1 elite season, and a handful of good/ok seasons.

 

With Vlad you’re really buying into the underlying metrics part and hoping he improves/rebounds. With Soto, you know you’re getting an elite player.

[Eat My Shatkins]

6.3, 3.3, 1.3, 3.3 (projected) is not a 1-2 fWAR 1B. Get out of here. You don't take his worst season and decide that's the amount he produces, it's ridiculous. Vlad would get a decent return, he's the third best hitting 1B in the league this year (behind Harper and Freeman), and his value is hurt by his defense and baserunning, but teams are going to value a 140 wRC+ hitter who is still only 25 years old.

 

You're right, the Jays will have a "powerful" farm system if they trade Vladdy.

[Stangstag]

Soto is re-signing with the resurgent Nats.

 

That would be awesome. Soto and Wood anchoring the middle of the order would be fun to watch.

[Terminator]

Lost in the discussion about extending Vlad to a 10 year deal is the fact that Don Mattingly made this discussion possible.

 

The son of a bitch did the unthinkable and fixed Vlad's swing.

 

We have to extend him too while we are at it.

[hanton]

Lost in the discussion about extending Vlad to a 10 year deal is the fact that Don Mattingly made this discussion possible.

 

The son of a bitch did the unthinkable and fixed Vlad's swing.

 

We have to extend him too while we are at it.

 

Mattingly had such a sweet swing

[L54]

You're right, the Jays will have a "powerful" farm system if they trade Vladdy.

 

Shut the f*** up. You’re not as smart as you think you are

[max silver]

Lost in the discussion about extending Vlad to a 10 year deal is the fact that Don Mattingly made this discussion possible.

 

The son of a bitch did the unthinkable and fixed Vlad's swing.

 

We have to extend him too while we are at it.

 

I'd put more money on Hague being responsible.

[AMS528]

You're right, the Jays will have a "powerful" farm system if they trade Vladdy.

 

Are you illiterate? I said he has value and would get a decent return, no where except in your own head did I write that we would have a powerful farm system by trading him.

 

And my response was more about the stupidity of calling him a 1-2 WAR player. Which you didn't respond back to because of how obviously wrong it was.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah Soto is a better hitter than Vlad, can play an OF position, and has a WS ring where he contributed with numerous clutch hits.

 

Vlad has 1 elite season, and a handful of good/ok seasons.

 

With Vlad youÂ’re really buying into the underlying metrics part and hoping he improves/rebounds. With Soto, you know youÂ’re getting an elite player.

 

Vlad has had his inconsistencies ala Brice Harper in his early year. Partly physical conditioning. He's in much better shape. His underlying numbers are insane. The only thing was elevating the ball. It's timing getting the head out. He's back to elevating the ball. He's going to be a top 5 or 6 hitter in the game over the next 5 years. Now is the time to pounce and get him at a discount.

 

Putting too much stock in the past couple seasons and not realizing what he's doing right now would be a mistake. Vlad's going to finish this season with an OPS north of .900. Next year he could have a monster year and we're not signing him on the cheap after that. If he hits free agency he's gone. He wants to stay.

[Joltin Joe]

Yeah what if they just traded Vlad and Bo and then signed Pete Alonso and one of Kim/Adames? Re-stocked farm system and the AAV goes right into similar players.

I remember I was advocate of signing Freeman a years back and trading Vlad for colossal prospects. Figure money be same in long run. Those young players on Jays last 3 playoff years made big difference

[Laika]

Vlad fWAR vs bWAR career

 

2019, 0.3 vs. 2.1

2020, 0.3 vs. 0.6

2021, 6.3 vs. 6.7

2022, 3.4 vs. 4.0

2023, 1.3 vs. 2.0

2024, 2.0 vs. 2.5

 

total, 13.6 vs. 17.8

 

difference is all defense and baserunning. fangraphs has his defense and baserunning at like -100 runs career (minus ten wins) and baseball reference is not as brutal on him for those things

 

just an illustration of how little differences in the models matter

 

in the BR model he looks more like a 4+ win 1B who had a down year in 2023

in the Fangraphs model he looks more like a 3 win 1B who has downside that is sub replacement level

 

sort of matters a lot; 3 win players are readily available but 4 win players are basically all stars and not readily available (scarcity)

[connorp]

Vlad fWAR vs bWAR career

 

2019, 0.3 vs. 2.1

2020, 0.3 vs. 0.6

2021, 6.3 vs. 6.7

2022, 3.4 vs. 4.0

2023, 1.3 vs. 2.0

2024, 2.0 vs. 2.5

 

total, 13.6 vs. 17.8

 

difference is all defense and baserunning. fangraphs has his defense and baserunning at like -100 runs career (minus ten wins) and baseball reference is not as brutal on him for those things

 

just an illustration of how little differences in the models matter

 

in the BR model he looks more like a 4+ win 1B who had a down year in 2023

in the Fangraphs model he looks more like a 3 win 1B who has downside that is sub replacement level

 

sort of matters a lot; 3 win players are readily available but 4 win players are basically all stars and not readily available (scarcity)

 

What kind of contract do you think Varsho signs if FA was today?

[glory]

What’s interesting about the extension talk is that Shapiro is a FA the same time as Vlad is. Maybe they already have a mutual understanding that Shapiro is staying beyond 2025, but if the Jays need to extend their star and (presumably) replace their GM, then a guy with 1 year left on his deal probably shouldn’t be making either of those calls.

[Laika]

What kind of contract do you think Varsho signs if FA was today?

 

I have no clue, it's hard to think of comps

 

most of the CF guys in the last 10 years who derive a lot of value from defense were just kind of cooked by the time they reached FA and no longer 4+ WAR players

 

I think JBJ was just average for a few years before FA. Inciarte extended with Atlanta but was done by the end of that extension.

 

dunno dunno dunno

 

is Matt Chapman actually a comp? sort of

[Jonn]

Not trading Vlad this week/end could have a ripple effect that could hamstring the organization for a half a decade or longer.

 

You have an aging and expensive roster that’s deprived of talent. Virtually nothing in the pipeline. Easily a bottom 5 farm system in Baseball. Nothing is even on the horizon if you factor injuries.

 

Vlad is the asset that can net you multiple top tier prospects if you trade him now. A team will give up more to have his bat for year and half and 2 full playoff runs. Opposed to just one Season where he’s a pending free agent.

 

Going to free agency with him would just be a disaster and if you lose him for a comp pick. That’s an organizations destroying move. Sadly thats exactly what I think is going to happen.

 

Watching this team is like watching a car crash in slow motion and you have no power to impact anything. It’s very difficult to be a fan. I love the Blue Jays. Can’t stand how they operate.

 

God were so f***ed

[Brownie19]

The good news is that farm systems are relatively easy to fix in short order. Teams go from Bottom 5 to Top 10 in just 2-3 seasons (they can also go the other way that fast too).

[Governator]

Not trading Vlad this week/end could have a ripple effect that could hamstring the organization for a half a decade or longer.

 

You have an aging and expensive roster that’s deprived of talent. Virtually nothing in the pipeline. Easily a bottom 5 farm system in Baseball. Nothing is even on the horizon if you factor injuries.

 

Vlad is the asset that can net you multiple top tier prospects if you trade him now. A team will give up more to have his bat for year and half and 2 full playoff runs. Opposed to just one Season where he’s a pending free agent.

 

Going to free agency with him would just be a disaster and if you lose him for a comp pick. That’s an organizations destroying move. Sadly thats exactly what I think is going to happen.

 

Watching this team is like watching a car crash in slow motion and you have no power to impact anything. It’s very difficult to be a fan. I love the Blue Jays. Can’t stand how they operate.

 

God were so f***ed

 

 

Who are all the teams that realistically would trade for vlad right now that's looking for 1b/dh offensive boost? I think they'd also need money to spend in hopes of locking him up after if it works out. Red Sox maybe Padres? It's not like 15 teams are in play here.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Are you illiterate? I said he has value and would get a decent return, no where except in your own head did I write that we would have a powerful farm system by trading him.

 

And my response was more about the stupidity of calling him a 1-2 WAR player. Which you didn't respond back to because of how obviously wrong it was.

 

 

Look at the post I originally responded to for f*** sakes, before you go all half cocked like this. The guy literally said trading Bo and Vlad would make our farm system "powerful". I disagreed.

 

Then you decided to chime in.

 

Yeah trading them would bring some prospects, but it's got a long ways to go before it's a high end system again.