Is the window closing for Atkins and Shapiro?

[Omar]

Shapiro needs to stay on. His track record in swaying ownership to make necessary investments both in team payroll and infrastructure like the stadium renos and player development complex speaks for itself.

 

I can see a strong case made for having a new voice leading baseball ops though. Someone like James Click who knows what it looks like to lead cutting-edge orgs like Ray and Astros. I'm not sure I see Atkins being fired since Shapiro and him seem joined at the hip. Maybe he'll step down or get shuffled to another position (his contract doesn't expire until end of the 2026 season).

 

His track record is one of never winning. He doesn't have it where it counts despite his polish as an exec.

[RobinThicc]

Shapiro refusing to go bald says a lot anout him, in a negative way.

[Laika]

I think Ray is right. If the current structure at the top is something like:

 

- Atkins makes 95% of baseball decisions

- Shapiro has final say on 5% of baseball decisions (major moves, systemic changes, etc.)

 

Then perhaps they need to change that to something more like that:

 

- Shapiro makes 0% of baseball decisions. His baseball role is strictly budgetary liaison with ownership and being that kind of thread between ownership and the team.

- They identify what Atkins is good at and narrow his role. He can keep his title but he now effectively makes 50% of baseball decisions.

- Someone like Click, or Mr. Outside Hire with a track record of being good at Atkins' weaknesses, makes 50% of baseball decisions.

 

I think ^ this type of reorg is more likely to happen than a house cleaning. Maybe?

 

Coaching staff, different story. I personally don't even think John Schneider is a bad manager at all but the hitting side of the team... something must be rotten there.

 

I don't think it's Hunter Mense. I have read some interviews from him and seen his social media and while he does not seem extremely progressive, he's not a dinosaur.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/torontos-hunter-mense-on-developing-good-swing-decisions/

 

I think the Blue Jays are too hesitant at firing org people. Need to more aggressively hunt internal developmental talent.

[MikeM3]

You have to fire Atkins and let Click sell at the deadline. This is the only solution.

 

It will take at least 2 years to get our processes caught up with the top tier MLB anyways

 

But I question whether this team will ever even think of a rebuild with all the renos and ballpark stuff they went through.

 

Then again, does anyone there even watch the game anymore?

[Brownie19]

You have to fire Atkins and let Click sell at the deadline. This is the only solution.

 

It will take at least 2 years to get our processes caught up with the top tier MLB anyways

 

But I question whether this team will ever even think of a rebuild with all the renos and ballpark stuff they went through.

 

Then again, does anyone there even watch the game anymore?

 

To be fair - I think this is the approach in most good MLB stadiums these days. It's all about the experience - even if most of of that doesn't include watching the game. I've been to several stadiums in the upper east half of the US and that theme seemed pretty consistent.

 

If you watch The Saint of Second Chances, you'll see this approach started decades ago. The White Sox team was f***ing horrible at baseball, but they were able to fill the stadium anyway.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think Ray is right. If the current structure at the top is something like:

 

- Atkins makes 95% of baseball decisions

- Shapiro has final say on 5% of baseball decisions (major moves, systemic changes, etc.)

 

Then perhaps they need to change that to something more like that:

 

- Shapiro makes 0% of baseball decisions. His baseball role is strictly budgetary liaison with ownership and being that kind of thread between ownership and the team.

- They identify what Atkins is good at and narrow his role. He can keep his title but he now effectively makes 50% of baseball decisions.

- Someone like Click, or Mr. Outside Hire with a track record of being good at Atkins' weaknesses, makes 50% of baseball decisions.

 

I think ^ this type of reorg is more likely to happen than a house cleaning. Maybe?

 

Coaching staff, different story. I personally don't even think John Schneider is a bad manager at all but the hitting side of the team... something must be rotten there.

 

I don't think it's Hunter Mense. I have read some interviews from him and seen his social media and while he does not seem extremely progressive, he's not a dinosaur.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/torontos-hunter-mense-on-developing-good-swing-decisions/

 

I think the Blue Jays are too hesitant at firing org people. Need to more aggressively hunt internal developmental talent.

 

What the point of keeping Atkins around in this scenario? He's terrible with the media so keeping him on in the GM role if he isn't making many of the baseball decisions seems redundant. "Starting Fresh" and getting rid of Atkins I think would give a breathe of fresh air throughout the Org. Kind of signals to everyone inside and out that the failures are in the past so to speak.

[Laika]

What the point of keeping Atkins around in this scenario? He's terrible with the media so keeping him on in the GM role if he isn't making many of the baseball decisions seems redundant. "Starting Fresh" and getting rid of Atkins I think would give a breathe of fresh air throughout the Org. Kind of signals to everyone inside and out that the failures are in the past so to speak.

 

I don't know. Ask Shapiro why he loves Atkins.

 

Just saying what I think is more likely.

 

The pros for Atkins are sort of obvious. He's generally good at certain things, and probably a middle of the pack GM at worst. Gets value in trades more often than not, makes good free agent signings more often than not. Avoided extending the trap prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (saved the franchise let's be honest).

 

Almost everything they do at the MLB level in terms of transactions is fine, sensible, and good (despite a lot of belly-aching around here about "not fixing the offense" in one offseason or whatever).

 

I am envisioning a co-GM scenario where Atkins still has most of the day to day control over the MLB roster. He is the one on the phone, making trades, negotiating with free agents, talking extensions. And then his co-GM is the one who focuses more on drafting and development and more on the statistical side of things - how to do advanced game prep better, communicate information to players and coaches better, and so forth (the stuff Atkins may be bad at).

[Laika]

Also, in many ways Shapiro and Atkins are just figureheads

 

Look at how many people are in the modern front office

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/team/front-office-directory

 

If the Jays main problem is modern game prep, then couldn't the bad egg reasonably be below Atkins? Maybe it's Click himself, the "Vice President, Baseball Strategy"

Or if the main problem is on the developmental side, it's probably some very complex cluster of sub-optimal employees? Poor performance from the Director or Assistant Director(s) of Player Development?

 

Who f***ing knows!

[MikeM3]

Also, in many ways Shapiro and Atkins are just figureheads

 

Look at how many people are in the modern front office

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/team/front-office-directory

 

If the Jays main problem is modern game prep, then couldn't the bad egg reasonably be below Atkins? Maybe it's Click himself, the "Vice President, Baseball Strategy"

Or if the main problem is on the developmental side, it's probably some very complex cluster of sub-optimal employees? Poor performance from the Director or Assistant Director(s) of Player Development?

 

Who f***ing knows!

 

Dude he hires all these people. He's an ex player not a real nerd. He doesn't know what to hire or how to build the org. He tries to keep up the best he can but he will never be ahead of the curve.

 

Compare that to Sig Mejdal who literally built the systems these new hires use. Who do you think will hire better people lmao

[burlingtonbandit]

Also, in many ways Shapiro and Atkins are just figureheads

 

Look at how many people are in the modern front office

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/team/front-office-directory

 

If the Jays main problem is modern game prep, then couldn't the bad egg reasonably be below Atkins? Maybe it's Click himself, the "Vice President, Baseball Strategy"

Or if the main problem is on the developmental side, it's probably some very complex cluster of sub-optimal employees? Poor performance from the Director or Assistant Director(s) of Player Development?

 

Who f***ing knows!

 

Its more than likely below them. But at the end of the day they are the ones in charge of hiring people to make these decisions so it falls on them. And identify the problems and find solutions.

 

It takes a long time to shuffle old people out and bring in new people and to see results from those changes, but they've had 8 years now which is more than enough time. They've built a great player development facility yet the farm system has been average at best and they aren't developing talent at the major league level.

 

Also its clear there is a massive communication problem inside the org. given the comments last year at the end of the season and even this year.

[glory]

Yeah it’s hard to see this given how he looks, but Atkins is a former player. That might explain why he thinks Don Mattingly is a solution to anything coaching related in 2024 rather than using a more analytical approach/hire. The Jays aren’t cutting edge in anything. Atkins is good at what he’s good at but what he’s good at isn’t a sustainable model (signing 1 year vetrins) without a better player development pipeline in place. If the Jays were developing talent at a high rate, then Atkins would be fine since he could surround them adequately at the big league level.

 

I’m typically fine with Shapiro but I’d be ok if he left. He’s the one who hired Atkins and refuses to make changes there, so what exactly are we holding on to? Maybe another prez wouldn’t be able to talk Rogers into paying the CBT, but maybe that person would create a better infrastructure that wouldn’t require the team to pay the tax in order to be competitive.

[Brownie19]

Yeah it’s hard to see this given how he looks, but Atkins is a former player. That might explain why he thinks Don Mattingly is a solution to anything coaching related in 2024 rather than using a more analytical approach/hire. The Jays aren’t cutting edge in anything.

 

It's an interesting thought. I think a lot of fans "think" they want fewer nerds in the FO. The reality is we may actually need BIGGER NERDS. Guys who've never swung a bat in their lives running the show - even if that means Berrios still gets pulled in the 3rd inning of a playoff game. I think a lot of people would initially struggle with that realization.

[L54]

You have to fire Atkins and let Click sell at the deadline. This is the only solution.

 

It will take at least 2 years to get our processes caught up with the top tier MLB anyways

 

But I question whether this team will ever even think of a rebuild with all the renos and ballpark stuff they went through.

 

Then again, does anyone there even watch the game anymore?

 

It’s a bad look when the cake eaters behind the plate are all gone in the seventh inning and you have thirteen oversized lazy boy recliners sitting empty

[L54]

I don't know. Ask Shapiro why he loves Atkins.

 

Just saying what I think is more likely.

 

The pros for Atkins are sort of obvious. He's generally good at certain things, and probably a middle of the pack GM at worst. Gets value in trades more often than not, makes good free agent signings more often than not. Avoided extending the trap prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (saved the franchise let's be honest).

 

Almost everything they do at the MLB level in terms of transactions is fine, sensible, and good (despite a lot of belly-aching around here about "not fixing the offense" in one offseason or whatever).

 

I am envisioning a co-GM scenario where Atkins still has most of the day to day control over the MLB roster. He is the one on the phone, making trades, negotiating with free agents, talking extensions. And then his co-GM is the one who focuses more on drafting and development and more on the statistical side of things - how to do advanced game prep better, communicate information to players and coaches better, and so forth (the stuff Atkins may be bad at).

 

Nobody with a shred of dignity is coming to Toronto to be the 1B to 1A Ross Atkins

[burlingtonbandit]

It's an interesting thought. I think a lot of fans "think" they want fewer nerds in the FO. The reality is we may actually need BIGGER NERDS. Guys who've never swung a bat in their lives running the show - even if that means Berrios still gets pulled in the 3rd inning of a playoff game. I think a lot of people would initially struggle with that realization.

 

What they need is coaches who are great communicators who can show information to players in a way they can understand so they can perform better. You can have all the smartest guys and it won't mean s*** if they can't get the players to understand/make changes.

 

A lot of the time on at the coaching level information can be too much. If I compare it to golf, you can go to an indoor simulator with a GC quad and all the information on your swing/contact and tbh you can easily get lost in the numbers. When I took lessons from one of the better coaches a lot of the time he would just tell me to focus on a "feel" which would make the changes needed without any looking of the numbers and yet the ball speed numbers jumped 5%.

[Laika]

Nobody with a shred of dignity is coming to Toronto to be the 1B to 1A Ross Atkins

 

Dignity not required

[Terminator]

These jobs are hard to get, plenty of qualified people would shine Ross Atkins' shoes if they got to be his 1B.

 

That said, I don't see the org giving Atkins more training wheels with a co-GM. I think he'll get the boot outright before something like that happens.

[keggy]

Yeah it’s hard to see this given how he looks, but Atkins is a former player. That might explain why he thinks Don Mattingly is a solution to anything coaching related in 2024 rather than using a more analytical approach/hire. The Jays aren’t cutting edge in anything. Atkins is good at what he’s good at but what he’s good at isn’t a sustainable model (signing 1 year vetrins) without a better player development pipeline in place. If the Jays were developing talent at a high rate, then Atkins would be fine since he could surround them adequately at the big league level.

 

Elite front offices are filled with mediocre ex players with genius IQs. What are Atkins' qualifications/credentials anyways? Friedman was a finance whiz kid before baseball. Tampa's front office is filled with ex players with Harvard and Stanford MBAs. Even Keith Law went to Harvard and his career consists of saying mean things about prospects and critiquing Top Chef risotto recipes.

 

I hate to be elitist, but we are talking about high powered positions with millions of dollars at stake. Was Atkins so good during his stint in Cleveland that he's earned this much rope?

 

I don't know, I'm just asking because the product here over the past several years has not exceeded expectations.

[Spanky99]

I don't know. Ask Shapiro why he loves Atkins.

 

Just saying what I think is more likely.

 

The pros for Atkins are sort of obvious. He's generally good at certain things, and probably a middle of the pack GM at worst. Gets value in trades more often than not, makes good free agent signings more often than not. Avoided extending the trap prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (saved the franchise let's be honest).

 

Almost everything they do at the MLB level in terms of transactions is fine, sensible, and good (despite a lot of belly-aching around here about "not fixing the offense" in one offseason or whatever).

 

I am envisioning a co-GM scenario where Atkins still has most of the day to day control over the MLB roster. He is the one on the phone, making trades, negotiating with free agents, talking extensions. And then his co-GM is the one who focuses more on drafting and development and more on the statistical side of things - how to do advanced game prep better, communicate information to players and coaches better, and so forth (the stuff Atkins may be bad at).

 

That's Click's job, we went over this already.

 

Meh... nvm. lol

[Brownie19]

What they need is coaches who are great communicators who can show information to players in a way they can understand so they can perform better. You can have all the smartest guys and it won't mean s*** if they can't get the players to understand/make changes.

 

A lot of the time on at the coaching level information can be too much. If I compare it to golf, you can go to an indoor simulator with a GC quad and all the information on your swing/contact and tbh you can easily get lost in the numbers. When I took lessons from one of the better coaches a lot of the time he would just tell me to focus on a "feel" which would make the changes needed without any looking of the numbers and yet the ball speed numbers jumped 5%.

 

I think the reality is that each player absorbs information in different manners. I've done lessons with a pro on a driving range and at the indoor simulator with all the information. Personally, I thrived at the simulator. I loved being able to see the video, side by side comparisons and all the numbers - but as you say, for others, that would overwhelm them and they'd improve much better with a simple approach. There isn't a one size fits all approach to learning.

 

Fully agree that the communication component is massive - as is understanding the different personalities, how they learn and what they need. It's complicated and difficult to pull off consistently.

[Laika]

That's Click's job, we went over this already.

 

Meh... nvm. lol

 

well it ain't working

 

replace Click!

[Stangstag]

I think Ray is right. If the current structure at the top is something like:

 

- Atkins makes 95% of baseball decisions

- Shapiro has final say on 5% of baseball decisions (major moves, systemic changes, etc.)

 

Then perhaps they need to change that to something more like that:

 

- Shapiro makes 0% of baseball decisions. His baseball role is strictly budgetary liaison with ownership and being that kind of thread between ownership and the team.

- They identify what Atkins is good at and narrow his role. He can keep his title but he now effectively makes 50% of baseball decisions.

- Someone like Click, or Mr. Outside Hire with a track record of being good at Atkins' weaknesses, makes 50% of baseball decisions.

 

I think ^ this type of reorg is more likely to happen than a house cleaning. Maybe?

 

Coaching staff, different story. I personally don't even think John Schneider is a bad manager at all but the hitting side of the team... something must be rotten there.

 

I don't think it's Hunter Mense. I have read some interviews from him and seen his social media and while he does not seem extremely progressive, he's not a dinosaur.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/torontos-hunter-mense-on-developing-good-swing-decisions/

 

I think the Blue Jays are too hesitant at firing org people. Need to more aggressively hunt internal developmental talent.

 

Bingo. There should have been major changes after 2023. We got like barely 50% out of that lineup's potential. Can't complain about the pitching, but the position players were a mess.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

A key thing you also have to think about is money. Sports analyst positions already don’t pay a lot of money, unless you are a top guy. Presumably nerds in Toronto are being paid in CAD not USD and are living in one of the highest cost of living places in Canada. If you’re actually a top performing nerd that is not appealing to you, you will go work for better money in America.

 

Blue Jays nerds are definitely not the best nerds based on that alone.

[Brownie19]

Bingo. There should have been major changes after 2023. We got like barely 50% out of that lineup's potential. Can't complain about the pitching, but the position players were a mess.

 

Interesting that the FO seems to be able to hire and assemble a very good group of pitching coaches who are having such a positive effect - yet the same people continue to swing and miss on the offensive side of the game. Hmmmmmm

[Omar]

I would be all in for a fire sale at the end of July so the rebuild could commence. The question remains, do we really want Atkins and co. In charge of the rebuild? If the answer is no, consider the real possibility that we could end up with something worse.

 

Unlike many on this board (maybe all?) I would rather see Shapiro leave and Atkins stay. I think Atkins is a pretty sharp baseball guy who would get picked up by another organization in no time. Not a popular opinion but there it is.

[Laika]

A key thing you also have to think about is money. Sports analyst positions already don’t pay a lot of money, unless you are a top guy. Presumably nerds in Toronto are being paid in CAD not USD and are living in one of the highest cost of living places in Canada. If you’re actually a top performing nerd that is not appealing to you, you will go work for better money in America.

 

Blue Jays nerds are definitely not the best nerds based on that alone.

 

You can find the entry level and early career Baseball Research Analysts on their website and google them. See their resumes. It's kind of fun. They seem pretty smart.

 

Some examples:

 

Claire Wilson, 2022 Notre Dame grad. Interned for the Cubs in school. Marlins after school.

Emma Ritcey, MSc in AI, Comp Sci major, former OUA basketball for Queens.

Peter L'Oiseau, Masters in Math a few years ago... you can find his Fangraphs articles from a few years ago about things like aging curves for statcast metrics

 

But yeah at the top end, who knows. Maybe for the Director level positions on the Analytics side, Toronto isn't a desirable spot.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

You can find the entry level and early career Baseball Research Analysts on their website and google them. See their resumes. It's kind of fun. They seem pretty smart.

 

Some examples:

 

Claire Wilson, 2022 Notre Dame grad. Interned for the Cubs in school. Marlins after school.

Emma Ritcey, MSc in AI, Comp Sci major, former OUA basketball for Queens.

Peter L'Oiseau, Masters in Math a few years ago... you can find his Fangraphs articles from a few years ago about things like aging curves for statcast metrics

 

But yeah at the top end, who knows. Maybe for the Director level positions on the Analytics side, Toronto isn't a desirable spot.

 

Oh I have no doubt they are smart people, just all things considered tech and data science in the states is a much better deal.

[Laika]

Oh I have no doubt they are smart people, just all things considered tech and data science in the states is a much better deal.

 

Yes. And not even in the states; I bet every one of these junior data/science people with the Blue Jays will inevitably just think they are drastically underpaid in ~5 years and want to jump ship from just looking at certain other jobs within Toronto.

 

MSc in Math or CompSci/AI with several years quality working experience is six figures anywhere competitive, maybe $59k with the Blue Jays lol

[Eat My Shatkins]

I would be all in for a fire sale at the end of July so the rebuild could commence. The question remains, do we really want Atkins and co. In charge of the rebuild? If the answer is no, consider the real possibility that we could end up with something worse.

 

Unlike many on this board (maybe all?) I would rather see Shapiro leave and Atkins stay. I think Atkins is a pretty sharp baseball guy who would get picked up by another organization in no time. Not a popular opinion but there it is.

 

Lots could change by July, but even if they decided to punt the season I don't know if a fire sale is what they'd need to do.

 

They just need to move on from Bo and Vlad and retool around what is still looking like a very good rotation, decent bullpen, and plenty of depth. They could also probably get something nice for Kikuchi if he won't extend. Would need to hit some home runs in free agency though. Like one or two of Alonso, Soto, Adames type of thing.

[L54]

Dignity not required

 

But seriously, nobody who you actually have circled at the top of your list is coming to be second fiddle to Ross