Around Baseball 2024

[L54]

The factors are: The FO has not built a solid enough farm to go out and get a Soto, a Glasgow, or get one of the Red's surplus IF that would have fit the bill. Or to be aggressive and get Suarez at 3b, early because AZ looked at the market and said that was the best play.

 

I am not sure what line of work you are in. I know I can't continue to give excuses and tell my boss's that I can't deliver results because I didn't set my self up for continued success after 7 years and I left myself with one option and it was not a good one.

 

It is a results oriented business for the fans anyway.

 

The "factors", are factors all other teams have to account for.

 

Pretty much this. At some point doing enough to tread water isn’t enough

 

It’s not like Atkins is running on Cleveland’s payroll. They’re playing with the big dawgs in terms of payroll commitments and it isn’t working

 

Just because SD, NYM etc are also let downs in terms of high payroll teams doesn’t give TOR a pass. I do not like that argument

[Brownie19]

Pretty much this. At some point doing enough to tread water isn’t enough

 

It’s not like Atkins is running on Cleveland’s payroll. They’re playing with the big dawgs in terms of payroll commitments and it isn’t working

 

Just because SD, NYM etc are also let downs in terms of high payroll teams doesn’t give TOR a pass. I do not like that argument

 

This always comes down to whether or not you think teams have much control over whether they win in the playoffs or not.

 

Lots on here believe they do. Others don't.

[L54]

This always comes down to whether or not you think teams have much control over whether they win in the playoffs or not.

 

Lots on here believe they do. Others don't.

 

This may make me a far right conspiracy theorist but yes, I do believe the players control the outcome of games

[glory]

Atkins is paying real dollars for 1 war players when no good teams do that anymore. They pay 500k for 1 war and 20m for 3. They don't pay 20m for three 1 war players.

 

He should have seen it coming.

 

Yeah I think this is the part that is most depressing. It's not that Atkins misjudged the market (he did), but he prioritized 1 WAR talent enough to overpay for it in free agency when the market had not fully developed yet. KK and IKF would have still been unsigned in Jan/Feb, and even if they weren't, who cares? Just find the best 1 WAR talent you can find with what's left, or use internal options that might project to be that caliber (or better) anyway. Atkins to his credit has not always acted like this, especially recently, where he's been willing to (over)pay for higher caliber players (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, Bassitt, etc) or make prudent buy low pick ups (Ray, Belt, KK last year, etc). The upside from the players he's signed this off season is kinda minimal at best aside from Green, who if he bounces back to pre injury form is a really good RP.

 

If Atkins literally did nothing this winter and just picked up the scraps available in Feb/March, it would be better than what he did just by virtue of being cheaper and not much different from a value standpoint. Just plug Horowitz or Vogelbach at DH, sign Grossman to hit against LHP, sign Urshela for peanuts, use Roden or Barger or DS in the OF, German as SP depth, etc.

[Brownie19]

This may make me a far right conspiracy theorist but yes, I do believe the players control the outcome of games

 

The best teams win more often than not eh?

 

And I meant the FO has control over who wins in the playoffs.

[Carlos Danger]

Playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years (while missing 4 for 4 by 1 win) while being in a good position to make it again this year is likely considered by most within the organization to be good results. Hence why the boss hasn't fired him and continues to support him.

 

Not sure how old you are. I remember the early 90's and late 80's teams. We won the division/ made it to the playoffs back when no WC a s*** load. We got killed every time or had a tragic collapse up 3-1 in 85.

 

Pat Gillick was not content. He knew he had to do something different to take that next step. There was also a chemistry and leadership issue that was apparent with the team.

 

The McGriff/Fernandez trade, bringing in guys like Carter and the signing of guys like Dave Winfield and the next year Paul Molitor were to address that and take the next step.

 

You CAN certainly set yourself up to do better in the playoffs as was shown by the roster construction of the 92 and 93 teams.

 

I doubt the Blue Jays make the WC this year. I think Detroit will take the last spot That is not making forward progress,

[L54]

The best teams win more often than not eh?

 

And I meant the FO has control over who wins in the playoffs.

 

Has the worst team ever won?

[Stangstag]

Yeah I think this is the part that is most depressing. It's not that Atkins misjudged the market (he did), but he prioritized 1 WAR talent enough to overpay for it in free agency when the market had not fully developed yet. KK and IKF would have still been unsigned in Jan/Feb, and even if they weren't, who cares? Just find the best 1 WAR talent you can find with what's left, or use internal options that might project to be that caliber (or better) anyway. Atkins to his credit has not always acted like this, especially recently, where he's been willing to (over)pay for higher caliber players (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, Bassitt, etc) or make prudent buy low pick ups (Ray, Belt, KK last year, etc). The upside from the players he's signed this off season is kinda minimal at best aside from Green, who if he bounces back to pre injury form is a really good RP.

 

If Atkins literally did nothing this winter and just picked up the scraps available in Feb/March, it would be better than what he did just by virtue of being cheaper and not much different from a value standpoint. Just plug Horowitz or Vogelbach at DH, sign Grossman to hit against LHP, sign Urshela for peanuts, use Roden or Barger or DS in the OF, German as SP depth, etc.

 

Agree 100%. I’d rather just watch the rookies play if the alternative is aging/low upside vets like KK/Turner/IKF.

[wamco]

Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

[BTS]

Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

 

He should probably fire Boras

[Stangstag]

Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

 

Honestly glad he rejected that. Over 5 years for Chap was too much.

 

It hurts that we probably could’ve had him for 3/60. But who knows, maybe its Boras/Chapman’s pride and they tried coming back to Toronto asking for the same initial offer.

 

Missing out on both Chapman and Bellinger for 3 year deals is rough.

[G-Snarls]

Most of it can be explained by the developmental system being bad. Symptoms of the same problem.

 

When you aren't confident on your internal depth you can't really wait out free agency.

 

That being said, most teams misread the off-season. When the dust settles there will be a handful that read it right and profited. Cubs are one, Giants are two I guess. We will see who gets Snell for $25M.

 

Free agents this year either got 700M, or 3/60 ish with opt outs or cheap 1 year deals

 

Kinda nuts

[Terminator]

Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years. Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

 

For this to make sense there had to be some sort of huge falling out between the team and Chapman. No way you offer a guy 6 year for 120 mil and then end up not topping the deal he got with the Giants.

[Laika]

For this to make sense there had to be some sort of huge falling out between the team and Chapman. No way you offer a guy 6 year for 120 mil and then end up not topping the deal he got with the Giants.

 

Maybe they offered it before 2023 so it would have been five free agent years

 

He was a 29 year old coming off 4.2 WAR

[Carlos Danger]

Maybe they offered it before 2023 so it would have been five free agent years

 

He was a 29 year old coming off 4.2 WAR

 

This, it was offered prior to the 2nd half of 2023.

[Abomination]

I wonder what the Giants would want for JD Davis now that they've signed Chapman?

[Stangstag]

For this to make sense there had to be some sort of huge falling out between the team and Chapman. No way you offer a guy 6 year for 120 mil and then end up not topping the deal he got with the Giants.

 

Or… they mis-timed the market once again. They overpaid early for mediocre players and tied up so much payroll that we had no room left for Chapman at 20 mil.

[Stangstag]

I wonder what the Giants would want for JD Davis now that they've signed Chapman?

 

Espinal?

[Pendleton]

I wonder what the Giants would want for JD Davis now that they've signed Chapman?

 

We already have Turner to be a DH and part time corner INF. I don't know what to make of Davis as a 3B defender. Always graded poorly with 2023 being the exception. Soon turning 31, I would air on the side of caution and assume 2023 to be an outlier.

[BTS]

Or… they mis-timed the market once again. They overpaid early for mediocre players and tied up so much payroll that we had no room left for Chapman at 20 mil.

 

But they had clear payroll room for Chapman until February when they signed Turner

[BTS]

I wonder what the Giants would want for JD Davis now that they've signed Chapman?

 

Yimi for Davis - who says no?

[Laika]

But they had clear payroll room for Chapman until February when they signed Turner

 

I feel like the decision was made when they signed Falaffle

 

The Turner signing did take up the most budget but it's a pure offense signing

 

Falaffle just doesn't make sense for this team at his price if he's going to be a utility player. The cost says he's the primary 3B.

[L54]

I feel like the decision was made when they signed Falaffle

 

The Turner signing did take up the most budget but it's a pure offense signing

 

Falaffle just doesn't make sense for this team at his price if he's going to be a utility player. The cost says he's the primary 3B.

 

Which is retarded

[Sorrow]

I feel like the decision was made when they signed Falaffle

 

The Turner signing did take up the most budget but it's a pure offense signing

 

Falaffle just doesn't make sense for this team at his price if he's going to be a utility player. The cost says he's the primary 3B.

 

I think IKF is probably going to get into 140-150 games. If Vogelbach makes the team I see Turner starting a fair amount of games at either 2B or 3B and getting 3 at bats before IKF subs in defensively.

 

I still feel pretty good about this team going into 2024. I think a healthy Jansen, Kirk’s adjustments in the second half and Guerrero, Springer and Varsho regressing positively is what the team needs to bank on. If Guerrero and one of the others doesn’t bounce back offensively I don’t think any one signing other than Ohtani actually helps this team.

[jaysblue]

Don't forget about Spanky who cries anytime you say anything bad about the Jays.

 

Say anything critical about the Leafs, it's 100x worse haha.

[Stangstag]

I feel like the decision was made when they signed Falaffle

 

The Turner signing did take up the most budget but it's a pure offense signing

 

Falaffle just doesn't make sense for this team at his price if he's going to be a utility player. The cost says he's the primary 3B.

 

Yep agree

[Stangstag]

I think IKF is probably going to get into 140-150 games. If Vogelbach makes the team I see Turner starting a fair amount of games at either 2B or 3B and getting 3 at bats before IKF subs in defensively.

 

I still feel pretty good about this team going into 2024. I think a healthy Jansen, Kirk’s adjustments in the second half and Guerrero, Springer and Varsho regressing positively is what the team needs to bank on. If Guerrero and one of the others doesn’t bounce back offensively I don’t think any one signing other than Ohtani actually helps this team.

 

That’s what I thought at first, but now im like 90% certain that Turner will start 0 games at 3rd. I think he’s gonna be used strictly as a 1B/DH like Belt was. IKF will sadly be the primary 3B with Biggio as backup.

[BTS]

I feel like the decision was made when they signed Falaffle

 

The Turner signing did take up the most budget but it's a pure offense signing

 

Falaffle just doesn't make sense for this team at his price if he's going to be a utility player. The cost says he's the primary 3B.

 

You’re probably right that they had a strong idea that Chapman was leaving when they sighed IKF. But my point was that, as late as February 2nd, there was a financial ability to give Chapman the deal he got. That didn’t happen, but not because there wasn’t 20M in the 2024 budget. They either preferred Turner straight up to Chapman all things considered, or Chapman was still holding out for a significantly bigger deal than what he got, or just preferred SF on a 1-year deal.

[Brownie19]

Or… they mis-timed the market once again. They overpaid early for mediocre players and tied up so much payroll that we had no room left for Chapman at 20 mil.

 

What are your expectations for GM's "reading the market" correctly? Should they do it correctly every year? 50% of the time? Knowing what each team/GM is willing to do each year can't be easy. Mis-reading the market and ending up empty handed has to be a lot worse than mis-reading the market and ending up with slightly inferior players.

 

Didn't the Dodgers mis-read the market by signing Teo instead of Belly?

[John_Havok]

I think IKF is probably going to get into 140-150 games. If Vogelbach makes the team I see Turner starting a fair amount of games at either 2B or 3B and getting 3 at bats before IKF subs in defensively.

 

I still feel pretty good about this team going into 2024. I think a healthy Jansen, Kirk’s adjustments in the second half and Guerrero, Springer and Varsho regressing positively is what the team needs to bank on. If Guerrero and one of the others doesn’t bounce back offensively I don’t think any one signing other than Ohtani actually helps this team.

 

Pretty much. Bellinger would have been preferable to KK imo, but there was no way Toronto was paying what his asking price was early on so they pivoted early to a guy who they knew wanted to be here.