2023 Post-Mortem Thread

[John_Havok]

Ya, I'm not taking any solace in it either. But it is a fact others had more painful seasons...which is hard to comprehend.

 

This team feels adrift caught in eternal upper echelon 90 +/- 3 wins mediocrity.

 

90 wins isn't mediocrity.

...well at least it's upper level mediocrity bordering on low level well above avergae

[BigCecil]

90 wins isn't mediocrity.

...well at least it's upper level mediocrity bordering on low level well above avergae

 

No s*** Sherlock. You always do this.lol I know 90 wins is not mediocre in win totals. Who doesn’t? What did the Phillies have last year? 87 But they went to the WS. Thats not a mediocre result. The mediocrity refers to 3 quick play off exits and missing the playoffs by a game the last 4 years. Maybe ownership is happy with that purely as a business. We are competitive. Keep fans in stands and eye balls on TV. I suspect they are. As a fan I’m not wildly excited and it just feels mediocre, even with 89 wins.

[BatFlip]

No s*** Sherlock. You always do this.lol I know 90 wins is not mediocre in win totals. Who doesn’t? What did the Phillies have last year? 87 But they went to the WS. Thats not a mediocre result. The mediocrity refers to 3 quick play off exits and missing the playoffs by a game the last 4 years. Maybe ownership is happy with that purely as a business. We are competitive. Keep fans in stands and eye balls on TV. I suspect they are. As a fan I’m not wildly excited and it just feels mediocre, even with 89 wins.

 

I get it. Not a mediocre team, a decidedly above average team, but a mediocre result given expectations and talent level.

[BatFlip]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?sortColumn=team_name&sortDirection=asc

 

Kirk sucks because he's fat and slow, he generally makes good decisions.

VLad sucks because he's fat and slow and makes horrible decisions, some pay off, some dont. Positive value from advancing is at least some glimmer of hope that he can get better....maybe.

Belt is just old and slow, makes good decisions

Springer is still pretty good, i think he suffers from the occasional lapse but also being sent to die by Rivera.

Espy is middle of the road. Brain cramps from aggression and he has gotten slower.

Bo is the same as Espy, takes some dumb risks, but generally doesn't run himself off the bases alot (recent issues notwithstanding). Another guy who seems to get gunned at home alot being sent by the windmill 3b coach.

Chappy is a pretty good baserunner but this year especially it seems like he started trying to do too much at times.

Biggio - steady.

Merrifield - excellent speed but made some really uncharacteristic mistakes this year getting thrown out way more than he should.

KK - Jesus on the bases. he can do no wrong

Varsho - Better than Jesus.

Jansen - about average, always makes good choices, just limited by catcher speed and Rivera being stupid.

 

Imagine where theyd be with LG (0 runs)over Varsho(+4) and Teo(-4) over KK(+3) right now, would be an all time low record for baserunning idiocy

 

Rivera: "if he dies, he dies."

[Ryu In My House]

Doesn't he basically suggest we shouldn't use analytics? I'm not sure how any logical fan would believe that's a good idea. Maybe ask the Colorado Rockies how that's working out for them.

 

That wasn't my takeaway. My takeaway was use them, but also give significant weight to common sense and baseball experience (management). His point about Berrios was a good one. Some players would demand a trade after that. Anyway, I like Sid, and I liked his rant. But I am not sure I agree with him 100% either. I don't have the answers to mitigate this f***ing disaster of a season going forward. The easy thing to do would be to clean house, but is that the answer? Is anyone waiting in the wings that's amazing and will turn this s*** around right now? I don't know.

[Jonn]

I think shopping Vlad this off-season is the play. See what kind of offers are out there. Obviously you don't trade him unless a team is willing to gamble on his potential and underlying stats. But I just don't know if Vladdy is the type of player you should look to build around. There's gotta be one bitch team out there that will suck Atkins dick for him.

[hanton]

I think shopping Vlad this off-season is the play. See what kind of offers are out there. Obviously you don't trade him unless a team is willing to gamble on his potential and underlying stats. But I just don't know if Vladdy is the type of player you should look to build around. There's gotta be one bitch team out there that will suck Atkins dick for him.

 

No

 

deal with him, develop him, get him a mentor, a bat to "protect" him....do whatever it takes to fix him

[AlOmar21]

Doesn't he basically suggest we shouldn't use analytics? I'm not sure how any logical fan would believe that's a good idea. Maybe ask the Colorado Rockies how that's working out for them.

 

He definitely critiques analytics but I’m not sure he’s saying we shouldn’t use it. It’s really how it was used in the situation (devoid of consideration of the context) that’s the issue. You just cannot go in with a plan and not adapt to the evolving dynamics of the situation at play. That’s like a teacher going in with a lesson plan and not adapting when various emerging factors start to present themselves.

[Terminator]

I think shopping Vlad this off-season is the play. See what kind of offers are out there. Obviously you don't trade him unless a team is willing to gamble on his potential and underlying stats. But I just don't know if Vladdy is the type of player you should look to build around. There's gotta be one bitch team out there that will suck Atkins dick for him.

 

He's definitely a distressed asset right now so if you could get a haul for him and save 20 mil then you can replace his production with the money saved.

 

On the flipside, I'd also consider offering him some sort of lowball extension. Something that takes him to age 30. That could give him a pile of money but would also allow him to cash in big still.

[Jonn]

No

 

deal with him, develop him, get him a mentor, a bat to "protect" him....do whatever it takes to fix him

 

I don't think you can fix low IQ. And his antics are just growing old. Apparently the Jays have brought in a variety of different veterans to try to talk to him and he continues to just do his own thing. Don't see a commitment to the body. Obviously the value in a return has to be there. I just don't think he is that guy. That we apparently think he should be.

[Spanky99]

I don't think you can fix low IQ. And his antics are just growing old. Apparently the Jays have brought in a variety of different veterans to try to talk to him and he continues to just do his own thing. Don't see a commitment to the body. Obviously the value in a return has to be there. I just don't think he is that guy. That we apparently think he should be.

 

I don't believe there's much value with Vlad ATM, he'll be making 20M next year. There's no point, Vlad and the Jays best hope for a '21 Vlad next season. In shape and ready to hit bombs.

[jaysblue]

I think shopping Vlad this off-season is the play. See what kind of offers are out there. Obviously you don't trade him unless a team is willing to gamble on his potential and underlying stats. But I just don't know if Vladdy is the type of player you should look to build around. There's gotta be one bitch team out there that will suck Atkins dick for him.

 

If Vladdy is back next season, he can't be thought of as one of your elite pieces to build around. The Jays need to go out and acquire a 4-5 WAR player and can't rely on Vlad to be that. Vlad definitely has the potential to be that type of player again and if he is, even better!

 

I'm sure there are some challenge trades out there to be made for Vlad. Some teams might still value his potential, and two years of control left. Some teams might be looking to shake up things as well.

[BigCecil]

I don't believe there's much value with Vlad ATM, he'll be making 20M next year. There's no point, Vlad and the Jays best hope for a '21 Vlad next season. In shape and ready to hit bombs.

 

I agree with this in principle. But they need to be open to creativity and opportunity as this evolves and information is gained.

 

There are so many variables. If he goes all 2021 in '24 the whole the conversation shifts again. There is a possibility of extension discussions.

 

The deadline in '24 and next off season become critical times as his control and thus value erodes, depending on where we are as a team/his production.

 

We watched HOU remain competitive as Springer, Cole and Correa left. I don't want us to get so focused on 1 or 2 players, that we make sugar high decisions.

[Laika]

There are definitely a few GMs looking at Vladimir Guerrero Jr. right now and thinking "I can save her."

[BTS]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

[Laika]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

 

It's just too much to ignore the .374 xwOBA. 5th highest among qualified 1B.

 

Yeah he sucked in 2023 and the defense and baserunning drag his value down but he is still likely to project as a 3+ WAR player in 2024.

 

Yandy Diaz this year was .381 wOBA, -12 def runs, -7 BsR, and it came out to 4.7 fWAR.

 

I'm not sure what kind of challenge trade would be out there that would actually increase the projected production for 2024.

 

This year was noisy and of course there are lots of external or unique factors that might make one think that Vladdy is just a mental midget in a sumo body who will always underperform but.... I am not going to just ignore a .374 xwOBA.

[BigCecil]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

 

No on mega deal and yes getting very close to decision time.

 

There will be lots of orgs who look at his underlying numbers and see massive upside.

[BTS]

It's just too much to ignore the .374 xwOBA. 5th highest among qualified 1B.

 

Yeah he sucked in 2023 and the defense and baserunning drag his value down but he is still likely to project as a 3+ WAR player in 2024.

 

Yandy Diaz this year was .381 wOBA, -12 def runs, -7 BsR, and it came out to 4.7 fWAR.

 

I'm not sure what kind of challenge trade would be out there that would actually increase the projected production for 2024.

 

This year was noisy and of course there are lots of external or unique factors that might make one think that Vladdy is just a mental midget in a sumo body who will always underperform but.... I am not going to just ignore a .374 xwOBA.

 

You'd have to think at least a few teams would be willing to give up pre-arb talent that would be expected to contribute in 2024. Even if it's just good prospects who are a year or two away, trading him also frees up 25M or whatever his arb salary will be next year. That's enough cash to add a 3-win player.

 

But I'm approaching this from the POV that there's almost no chance I want to be paying Vlad in 2026.

[Olerud363]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

 

I'm fine with just having him here the next two years and finishing this window. Now if you could get value then I'd consider a trade. Here is how I have to come to look at it.

 

Let's say we rate him in terms of his ranking at each age within all full time players in the history of baseball. Like by percent of all players. Note not just percent of players in the Majors, but like all players as to where they were that year. So if at 20 he is like 50th percentile in Terms of 20 year olds in the majors because half the guys in the majors at 20 (Griffey, A-Rod, Harper) beat him, he might still be 99th percentile because only 1/100 play in the majors in 20.

 

18 - 99th percentile ? How many 18 year olds hit like he did over a full season minors

19 - 99.9th percentile ? Hit .400 for 2 months at double a and was an extreme beast at 19

20 - 99th percentile ? I think it is super Rare to have a 20 year play the full year in the major and be above average

21 - 95th percentile ? Rare for a 21 year old to play full time in majors but less rare than for a 20 year old

22 - 99.9th percentile ? Like he was setting hitting records for a 22 year old

23- 80th percentile ? Good season for a 23 year old but nothing spectacular.

24- 50th percentile ? He is an average guy now, at an age where it isn't special to be in the majors.

 

I don't know if those percentiles are exactly right, but how on earth do you even value a guy who has shown 99.9th percentile talent seasons but drifted to average?

[Laika]

You'd have to think at least a few teams would be willing to give up pre-arb talent that would be expected to contribute in 2024. Even if it's just good prospects who are a year or two away, trading him also frees up 25M or whatever his arb salary will be next year. That's enough cash to add a 3-win player.

 

But I'm approaching this from the POV that there's almost no chance I want to be paying Vlad in 2026.

 

The free agent pile f***ing sucks. I guess it's probably just not the offseason to get cute like this. The trade would need to specifically bring in an MLB bat with decent projections, I think, which makes it hard to pull off. I'm sure Atkins will explore it though.

 

Did you know that Toronto had 3 of the 6 top free agent bats by 2023 fWAR?

 

Ohtani, Chapman, Candelario, Belt, Heyward, Kiermaier, JDM, Garver, Gurriel Jr., Duvall, Pham, Teoscar.

 

This is a really bad top of the board. Other than Ohtani, I'm not sure I want anybody unless they are signing a cute little one year deal or pillow contract.

 

Toronto might end up doing something like giving JDM the Brandon Belt deal.

[BatFlip]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

 

 

I don't doubt for a second that Atkins would listen to any interest, but right now you're getting pennies on the dollars for those gorgeous peripherals. It's the absolute bottom of his market, two years left or not, and every GM will know that. Even if he bounces back to halfway between current Vlad and MVP Vlad, you'll still get more value in him playing for the Jays for those two years or him playing one year and shipping him out at the end of that year.

 

Yes, Vladdy's current production is easily replaceable, but it's poor asset management to ship him out for magic beans right now (which is what I think you'd get) when you could quite likely see a resurgence in the bat next year. I'm just as frustrated as everyone else and I hope I'm wrong - if I am he'll be traded, because I can't see the Jays not moving him if the price is right.

 

I just can't wrap my head around the decline we've see in his bat from 2021 to today and the inability of a 24 year old generational superstar to keep himself in half decent shape.

[BatFlip]

The free agent pile f***ing sucks. I guess it's probably just not the offseason to get cute like this. The trade would need to specifically bring in an MLB bat with decent projections, I think, which makes it hard to pull off. I'm sure Atkins will explore it though.

 

Did you know that Toronto had 3 of the 6 top free agent bats by 2023 fWAR?

 

Ohtani, Chapman, Candelario, Belt, Heyward, Kiermaier, JDM, Garver, Gurriel Jr., Duvall, Pham, Teoscar.

 

This is a really bad top of the board. Other than Ohtani, I'm not sure I want anybody unless they are signing a cute little one year deal or pillow contract.

 

Toronto might end up doing something like giving JDM the Brandon Belt deal.

 

 

Goddamn, that's an ugly FA class. Given the options, I wouldn't mind Teo back on a one or two year deal.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Last offseason was the time to trade Vlad. I mean you can still trade him now I won’t complain but if you were gonna trade him it should have been done last year.

[Sorrow]

I don't doubt for a second that Atkins would listen to any interest, but right now you're getting pennies on the dollars for those gorgeous peripherals. It's the absolute bottom of his market, two years left or not, and every GM will know that. Even if he bounces back to halfway between current Vlad and MVP Vlad, you'll still get more value in him playing for the Jays for those two years or him playing one year and shipping him out at the end of that year.

 

Yes, Vladdy's current production is easily replaceable, but it's poor asset management to ship him out for magic beans right now (which is what I think you'd get) when you could quite likely see a resurgence in the bat next year. I'm just as frustrated as everyone else and I hope I'm wrong - if I am he'll be traded, because I can't see the Jays not moving him if the price is right.

 

I just can't wrap my head around the decline we've see in his bat from 2021 to today and the inability of a 24 year old generational superstar to keep himself in half decent shape.

 

In 2021 he hit 21 home runs between TD Ballpark and Sahlen Field. That being said he had a 140 wRC+ at the RC last season and only 99 this year. His road numbers were actually better than 2022. I just don't know why he can't hit at the Rogers Centre this past season.

 

I'm pro trading Guerrero. I saw him at Spring Training in 2022 and 2023 and he was a lot fatter this spring than last year and he's noticeable fatter than 2021 (reminds me of 2020). I wouldn't extend him long term so if we can get maximum value now I think it's the time to move on.

[Spanky99]

Goddamn, that's an ugly FA class. Given the options, I wouldn't mind Teo back on a one or two year deal.

 

Pillow deal for Teo would be sweet, been saying it before the trade deadline.

[Knowitall]

No

 

deal with him, develop him, get him a mentor, a bat to "protect" him....do whatever it takes to fix him

 

Can't fix stupid.

[John_Havok]

In 2021 he hit 21 home runs between TD Ballpark and Sahlen Field. That being said he had a 140 wRC+ at the RC last season and only 99 this year. His road numbers were actually better than 2022. I just don't know why he can't hit at the Rogers Centre this past season.

 

I'm pro trading Guerrero. I saw him at Spring Training in 2022 and 2023 and he was a lot fatter this spring than last year and he's noticeable fatter than 2021 (reminds me of 2020). I wouldn't extend him long term so if we can get maximum value now I think it's the time to move on.

 

The biggest IF of them all, IF you can get max value. No idea who would be willing to pay that for Vlad.

[bones10]

We need to pull off a Donaldson esque trade, how do we get bobby Witt jr from the royals

[Sorrow]

The biggest IF of them all, IF you can get max value. No idea who would be willing to pay that for Vlad.

 

Max value hypothetically could be getting a couple of MLB ready prospects who can contribute and free up 20M in payroll for someone like Bellinger.

 

My issue is looking at teams presently I don't really see a fit for Vlad on most teams. Maybe the Padres, or the Pirates but this will look different in December.

[glory]

Not sure I'm really understanding the 'don't sell low on Vlad' POV. He's two years from free agency. How likely is it that two years from now any of you are comfortable giving him a free agent contract? If it's more of the same the next couple of years he's easily replaceable and not a loss at all. If he's 2021 Vlad over the next couple of years, he's getting a mega-contract. But do you want to be the team giving a huge contract to a fat, inconsistent, bat-only 1B who bleeds runs on the bases and is already a bad 1B defender?

 

I think it's basically a choice between trading him now, or trading him in a year. And any uptick in value that comes from a performance improvement in 2024 will be at least partially offset by the fact that a year from now you're trading one year of control instead of two.

 

It's really close to decision time on Vlad.

 

Agreed 100%. The Jays are kinda stuck here. As you said, if they keep Vlad for 2024-25 and he's the same 1-3 WAR player he's been the last two seasons, except with AAV's over $20m in both years, then it doesn't really help the Jays get to where they want to go. If they keep him and he becomes 2021 Vlad again, then you're left having to give him $300m to keep him long term, and that seems like an awful investment given how he's looked from age 20-24 (in performance and his conditioning/body/attitude). The whole point of maximizing the Vlad/Bo years was the expectation that both would be superstars during their pre-arb and early arb years. Bo has held up his end for the most part, but Vlad hasn't come close aside from one season. Now Vlad in particular is making more than the value he provides on the field, so it's no longer a competitive window based on him.

 

Is there a team out there that would view Vlad closer to his hype than his actual results? Maybe. I'm not sure. Maybe a team like the Marlins would do it. AJ Preller would definitely do it but he's running out of assets to trade.