2023 MLB Postseason Thread

[Stangstag]

The Dbacks are another great example of why you simply need to get into the playoffs...

 

Sadly the Jays are never THAT team. I really thought it was gonna be us this year…

[Brownie19]

Sadly the Jays are never THAT team. I really thought it was gonna be us this year…

 

Unfortunately, there's no rhyme or reason to which team the baseball gods bless each year. It's random. The goal is to get into the playoffs as often as you can to give yourself a better chance of getting blessed. I don't think anyone pegged the Dback's as that "team of destiny" heading into the playoffs. Most would have just nodded and carried on if they lost 2 straight in the wild card.

 

Interesting, fun team though. Hope they continue to do well. Hopefully Lawler and Jones come along soon to boost them and some of their prospect arms develop.

[connorp]

The Dbacks are another great example of why you simply need to get into the playoffs...

 

They have some big bats that can do damage. Marte, Walker, Corbin. Guys like Moreno unlocking some potential. They have an Ace is Gallen. 4 games, they got to use him two. Unfortunately Gausman couldn’t be maximized bc the bats were limp.

[connorp]

There’s teams that sneak in the like the Marlins that everyone knows are going nowhere and there’s teams with upside that can make some noise

[Laika]

They have some big bats that can do damage. Marte, Walker, Corbin. Guys like Moreno unlocking some potential. They have an Ace is Gallen. 4 games, they got to use him two. Unfortunately Gausman couldn’t be maximized bc the bats were limp.

 

97 wRC+ as a team

 

22nd in pitching fWAR

[connorp]

97 wRC+ as a team

 

22nd in pitching fWAR

 

As had been discussed, big bats become a difference maker, and team like the Jays that are 7th in wRC+ based on filling out the lineup with guys that can OPS .720 instead of .650, become exposed when the offense environment changes

[Laika]

There’s teams that sneak in the like the Marlins that everyone knows are going nowhere and there’s teams with upside that can make some noise

 

yeah but most people like you define the noise-makers by the results

 

like, look at the Marlins roster bro. Jazz Chissolm, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Luis Arraez hit .400 for like half the year. They brought in big sluggers like Bell and Burger. These guys all either have .200+ ISOs or they are elite at something. They have tons of sick young arms too, of course.

[Laika]

As had been discussed, big bats become a difference maker, and team like the Jays that are 7th in wRC+ based on filling out the lineup with guys that can OPS .720 instead of .650, become exposed when the offense environment changes

 

Made up narratives for $100, Alex

 

The default position is that the playoffs are quite random

[connorp]

yeah but most people like you define the noise-makers by the results

 

like, look at the Marlins roster bro. Jazz Chissolm, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Luis Arraez hit .400 for like half the year. They brought in big sluggers like Bell and Burger. These guys all either have .200+ ISOs or they are elite at something. They have tons of sick young arms too, of course.

 

Fair enough. I think I just think of the Marlins as a franchise that’s an also ran

[connorp]

Made up narratives for $100, Alex

 

The default position is that the playoffs are quite random

 

Bro, are you trying to say the offensive environment isn’t different in the playoffs. When you’re facing an Ace pitcher 2x in 4 games and only the best pen options and other SP. god found you have an original thought

[BigCecil]

Step on both of them. DBacks are an exciting team with all their talent

 

AZ has a lot of talent and are well set up for a 5 game series. Not so much for 7.

 

The LAD are hurting losing so many arms to IL and Urias suspension.

[Olerud363]

Bro, are you trying to say the offensive environment isnÂ’t different in the playoffs. When youÂ’re facing an Ace pitcher 2x in 4 games and only the best pen options and other SP. god found you have an original thought

 

He is saying there isn't a predictable and actionable non-linearity in the translations from regular season to playoffs.

 

Meaning there isn't a type of player who will do better in the post season as compared to their regular season stats. Last night it was Austin Riley and Travis D'Arnaud that hit the homers? Do they have a better chance to do that then Chapman and Biggio would?

 

Is there any reason to expect Riley has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Matt Chapman? Yes. Something is probably different between them this year, but that is cooked into the regular season stats.

 

Is there any reason to expect D'Arnaud has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Biggio? He has a slightly higher iso, so a very slightly higher chance of hitting a homerun, but not huge. Biggio could also do this with about the same probability D'Arnaud can.

 

There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

[Laika]

He is saying there isn't a predictable and actionable non-linearity in the translations from regular season to playoffs.

 

Meaning there isn't a type of player who will do better in the post season as compared to their regular season stats. Last night it was Austin Riley and Travis D'Arnaud that hit the homers? Do they have a better chance to do that then Chapman and Biggio would?

 

Is there any reason to expect Riley has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Matt Chapman? Yes. Something is probably different between them this year, but that is cooked into the regular season stats.

 

Is there any reason to expect D'Arnaud has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Biggio? He has a slightly higher iso, so a very slightly higher chance of hitting a homerun, but not huge. Biggio could also do this with about the same probability D'Arnaud can.

 

There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

 

This

 

There *are* some theories that things like "making contact" matter more in the playoffs. But some nerds disagree and point to small sample size problems with those positions.

 

Ironically, of all playoff teams Toronto had the 2nd best Contact% and the best chase rate (o-swing%). Little good that did them!

[Governator]

There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

 

For the most part I think that's true, aside from boneheaded managerial decisions where they throw darts mid-game in the postseason that they'd never do during the season.

[BigCecil]

He is saying there isn't a predictable and actionable non-linearity in the translations from regular season to playoffs.

 

Meaning there isn't a type of player who will do better in the post season as compared to their regular season stats. Last night it was Austin Riley and Travis D'Arnaud that hit the homers? Do they have a better chance to do that then Chapman and Biggio would?

 

Is there any reason to expect Riley has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Matt Chapman? Yes. Something is probably different between them this year, but that is cooked into the regular season stats.

 

Is there any reason to expect D'Arnaud has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Biggio? He has a slightly higher iso, so a very slightly higher chance of hitting a homerun, but not huge. Biggio could also do this with about the same probability D'Arnaud can.

 

There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

 

Interesting. Not sure what the correct term is but this is probably statistically or mathematically verifiable over a meaningful sample size correct?

 

HOU wins WS in '22. The best overall team in baseball. Anomaly? ATL is probably the best overall team in '23. Just my feeling but if they don't come back last night I think they are toast. I actually think they go on to win the WS now. Razor's edge the playoffs. However, I think it needs to be said that without their power (Riley) and D (Harris) which made them the best overall team (or one of), they don't pull that W out last night. Its better to have real talent than not and talent that performs. You need both.

 

You can contrast that with LAD so far not getting much out of Betts and Freeman - two HOF players over 2 games being pitched well. A wildcard and 5 game series is different than a 7. More time for talent to show in a longer series arguably.

 

The last 4 years of Jays results were elimination in 3 short playoff series and miss playoffs by a game. Completely random/luck and not so much reflective of talent? Just make it in and hope someone or few like Biggio ( D'arnaud equivalent) get hot?

[Laika]

Interesting. Not sure what the correct term is but this is probably statistically or mathematically verifiable over a meaningful sample size correct?

 

HOU wins WS in '22. The best overall team in baseball. Anomaly? ATL is probably the best overall team in '23. Just my feeling but if they don't come back last night I think they are toast. I actually think they go on to win the WS now. Razor's edge the playoffs. However, I think it needs to be said that without their power (Riley) and D (Harris) which made them the best overall team (or one of), they don't pull that W out last night. Its better to have real talent than not and talent that performs. You need both.

 

You can contrast that with LAD so far not getting much out of Betts and Freeman - two HOF players over 2 games being pitched well. A wildcard and 5 game series is different than a 7. More time for talent to show in a longer series arguably.

 

The last 4 years of Jays results were elimination in 3 short playoff series and miss playoffs by a game. Completely random/luck and not so much reflective of talent? Just make it in and hope someone or few like Biggio ( D'arnaud equivalent) get hot?

 

It is reflective of talent only because none of the Blue Jays teams have been good enough to win the division and get into the larger sample size series. They were mediocre enough to have to try and win these coinflip games.

[connorp]

He is saying there isn't a predictable and actionable non-linearity in the translations from regular season to playoffs.

 

Meaning there isn't a type of player who will do better in the post season as compared to their regular season stats. Last night it was Austin Riley and Travis D'Arnaud that hit the homers? Do they have a better chance to do that then Chapman and Biggio would?

 

Is there any reason to expect Riley has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Matt Chapman? Yes. Something is probably different between them this year, but that is cooked into the regular season stats.

 

Is there any reason to expect D'Arnaud has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Biggio? He has a slightly higher iso, so a very slightly higher chance of hitting a homerun, but not huge. Biggio could also do this with about the same probability D'Arnaud can.

 

There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

 

One simple way to look at it is a drop in OPS, as you’re not going to be padding your stats off bad pitching.

So an .850 OPS guy is more like a .780 OPS guy and a .700 OPS guy is more like a .620 OPS guy. Those are just random made up numbers.

Could the .620 OPs guy run into a random homer, sure, but generally speaking he’s borderline unplayable

[connorp]

Of course there’s going to be all sorts of randomness going on, you can’t quantify any of that if you try. But you can use basic reasoning to understand what gives you the best chances

[connorp]

To see if this is just me spouting off. It’s a pretty simple fact check.

 

Take regular season wRC+, compare it to post-season wRC+ for everyone, see if there’s any difference over a sample size of a decade or whatever

[BigCecil]

It is reflective of talent only because none of the Blue Jays teams have been good enough to win the division and get into the larger sample size series. They were mediocre enough to have to try and win these coinflip games.

 

hmm...The O's won our D, and could be bounced tonight. 5 games is a short series too, and the loss of Bautista not really a factor so far. TEX has exposed their pitching and bashed the f*** out of them. Which we all predicted would happen during the season, but its happening in the playoffs instead (good).

 

The frustrating part for me is our Jays this yr were exactly what they were in the season, in the short series. Lack of offense and 4th worst baserunning team in MLB according to fangraphs. We all hoped for a "playoff reset" that didn't happen.

[Omar]

Being a Dodgers fan and getting knocked out of the playoffs is tougher than being a Jays fan. If the Jays won a hundred games and got sent packing we would have a meltdown.

 

That's why we play the games. Nothing is 100% predictable. That's a good thing.

[Brownie19]

Being a Dodgers fan and getting knocked out of the playoffs is tougher than being a Jays fan. If the Jays won a hundred games and got sent packing we would have a meltdown.

 

That's why we play the games. Nothing is 100% predictable. That's a good thing.

 

If the Dodgers get swept, will their fans be calling for the FO and Manager to be fired? They won some mickey mouse WS in the COVID season - but otherwise, they must be thinking their window is also closing quickly.

[Omar]

If the Dodgers get swept, will their fans be calling for the FO and Manager to be fired? They won some mickey mouse WS in the COVID season - but otherwise, they must be thinking their window is also closing quickly.

 

That Mookie Betts sux. What has he done for us lately?

[Olerud363]

If the Dodgers get swept, will their fans be calling for the FO and Manager to be fired? They won some mickey mouse WS in the COVID season - but otherwise, they must be thinking their window is also closing quickly.

 

The 2020 playoffs were pretty tough. Dodgers had to get through 4 rounds and it's not like they snuck in and barely made the playoffs. And actually 2020 was the one year that the two best teams that year, who have also been the two best teams long term from 2018 to now met in the World Series.

 

However that being said, what I've come to think about that season and a lot of 2021 is that teams could not get the usual amount of advanced scouting and game planning done as other years. Maybe the 'good' organizations found a way to get it done anyway so teams like LA and Tampa Bay had an advantage that year. To me this may explain why the Jays and Vlad hit so well in 2021, they weren't being scouted and game planned for as much until later in 2021.

[Spanky__99]

Stros got their hitting shoes on today...

[BigCecil]

Abreu lessening the sting of an awful year with that playoff bomb off Gray.

[L54]

If the Dodgers get swept, will their fans be calling for the FO and Manager to be fired? They won some mickey mouse WS in the COVID season - but otherwise, they must be thinking their window is also closing quickly.

 

Why would their window be closing? They have two MVP candidates and are a developmental powerhouse with top tier spending power.

 

Dodgers FO

 

Win the NL West like 90% of the time over the last 10 years

 

Multiple NL Pennants

 

Multiple 100 win seasons

 

A World Series Championship

 

Jays FO

 

0 division titles

 

0 AL Pennants

 

2 90 win seasons

 

0 postseason wins

 

Straw man argument Brown Town

[Spanky__99]

Abreu lessening the sting of an awful year with that playoff bomb off Gray.

 

I just saw this in a Rotowire update, Alek has no self recognition

 

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend that the injections Manoah was given in his right shoulder late in the season were initiated by the pitcher, Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun reports.

Analysis

"It was his decision," Atkins said. "We supported him. He made the decision on his own to move in that direction. There were no structural issues." The GM also acknowledged that Manoah "disagreed with the decision" to option him on both occasions, which "created some frustration." However, Atkins also noted that Manoah has not asked to be traded and the GM is "very much looking forward to him being back in our rotation" next season. While it seems as though Manoah might need to mend some fences with the organization, his primary concern will be to figure out what happened in 2023 and rectifying it.

[Terminator]

I just saw this in a Rotowire update, Alek has no self recognition

 

Lol Manoah is such a clown.

 

Not only did he eat his way of of the league he seemingly takes no responsibility for it and then went and did some medical stuff on his own accord.

 

Hopefully he wakes the hell up and comes into camp in shape and can put up 2 WAR or better as the #5.

[Laika]

Lol Manoah is such a clown.

 

Not only did he eat his way of of the league he seemingly takes no responsibility for it and then went and did some medical stuff on his own accord.

 

Hopefully he wakes the hell up and comes into camp in shape and can put up 2 WAR or better as the #5.

 

Seems more like the type of guy who will come into camp with a Chronic Fatigue Syndrome diagnosis and ask for accommodations.

 

The first player to be medically exempt from the pitch clock!