General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jimcanuck]

Atkins is going to outlast Trudeau. Truly incredible feat. Not sure if it's a function of Atkins being smarter than Trudeau or if it's a function of Rogers being dumber than Canadian voters*

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Dumber in that it took them this long to smarten up and oust Trudeau. There are certain pockets of the internet, like Reddit, filled with very stupid people calling Canadian voters dumb for finally smartening up.

 

I have no idea how you have been doing this for so long without a ban

[The Cats Ass]

Guess who's at the very bottom of Statcast's new Baserunning Run Value Leaderboard and Net Basses Gained?

[Grant77]

Kirk?

[Jays24]

Guess who's at the very bottom of Statcast's new Baserunning Run Value Leaderboard and Net Basses Gained?

 

That's when you know a metric is spot on. Gonna guess Shatkins sponsored this metric to help with their contract negotiations lol.

[Dick_Pole]

I have no idea how you have been doing this for so long without a ban

 

Because I speak the truth, it's a relevant comparable to both the state of the Jays and the Liberal Party at this moment and I don't make politics 100% of my online persona (hint: look at your outdated profile pic).

[Dick_Pole]

So is it Guerrero or Kirk? Sad that the Jays can have multiple candidates for this worst baserunner crown. Especially since the Yankees exist.

[wilko]

So is it Guerrero or Kirk? Sad that the Jays can have multiple candidates for this worst baserunner crown. Especially since the Yankees exist.

 

It's Vladdy.

[max silver]

So is it Guerrero or Kirk? Sad that the Jays can have multiple candidates for this worst baserunner crown. Especially since the Yankees exist.

 

Kirk is 18th worst among all MLB players vs Vlad who is first. Kirk is arguably a worse baserunner than Vlad as he only had about 1/3 of the baserunning opportunities as Vlad and still accounted for -3 runs vs Vlad's -6 runs. Horwitz was another Blue Jays "standout" at -4 runs.

[Jays24]

Kirk is 18th worst among all MLB players vs Vlad who is first. Kirk is arguably a worse baserunner than Vlad as he only had about 1/3 of the baserunning opportunities as Vlad and still accounted for -3 runs vs Vlad's -6 runs. Horwitz was another Blue Jays "standout" at -4 runs.

 

The difference is that Kirk knows he fat and slow so he'll almost never risk a stupid out on the bases. Vladdy, while being fast for a fatty, is still a fatty and doesn't know his own true speed.

[max silver]

The difference is that Kirk knows he fat and slow so he'll almost never risk a stupid out on the bases. Vladdy, while being fast for a fatty, is still a fatty and doesn't know his own true speed.

 

For non-steal baserunning plays, an estimated success probability is generated for each opportunity using inputs that include runner speed, outfielder throwing arm, runner position on the basepaths and outfielder distance from both the ball and the bases. That can be translated to a run value based on whether the runner successfully takes the extra base, is thrown out or does not attempt to advance (holds).

 

You have this backwards. The majority of Vlad's negative run value was based on holding instead of attempting to take an extra base when the opportunity presented itself. He was essentially even when he attempted to take an extra base (+2 advances/-2 thrown out) but he was -4 due to holding when there was an extra base available to him.

 

Kirk's extreme passivity on the bases was the primary reason why he rated so poorly. He accumulated -3 runs on holds alone, where he had an opportunity to advance an extra base based on various factors and decided to not attempt to take the extra base. It's definitely a double edged sword with someone that slow though as the inherent risk of being thrown out on all but the easiest opportunities to advance would essentially negate most of these opportunities.

[mphenhef]

You have this backwards. The majority of Vlad's negative run value was based on holding instead of attempting to take an extra base when the opportunity presented itself. He was essentially even when he attempted to take an extra base (+2 advances/-2 thrown out) but he was -4 due to holding when there was an extra base available to him.

 

Kirk's extreme passivity on the bases was the primary reason why he rated so poorly. He accumulated -3 runs on holds alone, where he had an opportunity to advance an extra base based on various factors and decided to not attempt to take the extra base. It's definitely a double edged sword with someone that slow though as the inherent risk of being thrown out on all but the easiest opportunities to advance would essentially negate most of these opportunities.

 

So is this them or the first base coach at fault? Are there others low on this particular metric?

[wilko]

So is this them or the first base coach at fault? Are there others low on this particular metric?

 

It's probably due to his low baseball IQ.

 

[Brownie19]

I'd love to see the Jays find a way to improve the baserunning. It's an underrated way to improve the offense overall. You look at teams like the Brewers last year.

 

10th in wRC+

16th in HRs

1st in BsR

2nd in SBs

 

and they finish 6th in runs scored

 

Even a team like Cincy

 

26th in wRC+

2nd in BsR

3rd in SBs

 

and they finish 16th in runs scored

 

The past 2 years, the Jays have been 8th and 13th in wRC+, yet 14th and 23rd in runs scored. We've been 27th overall in BsR in each of those seasons. I really hope a guy like Gimenez can have a big impact with his legs and start to right the ship. Baserunning adds a ton of excitement to the fan experience too.

[Stangstag]

I'd love to see the Jays find a way to improve the baserunning. It's an underrated way to improve the offense overall. You look at teams like the Brewers last year.

 

10th in wRC+

16th in HRs

1st in BsR

2nd in SBs

 

and they finish 6th in runs scored

 

Even a team like Cincy

 

26th in wRC+

2nd in BsR

3rd in SBs

 

and they finish 16th in runs scored

 

The past 2 years, the Jays have been 8th and 13th in wRC+, yet 14th and 23rd in runs scored. We've been 27th overall in BsR in each of those seasons. I really hope a guy like Gimenez can have a big impact with his legs and start to right the ship. Baserunning adds a ton of excitement to the fan experience too.

 

It seems like the Jays strategy for improving baserunning has just been to take major risks, all the time. Except most of our guys are slow, stupid, or both so it doesn’t work.

[max silver]

I'd love to see the Jays find a way to improve the baserunning. It's an underrated way to improve the offense overall. You look at teams like the Brewers last year.

 

10th in wRC+

16th in HRs

1st in BsR

2nd in SBs

 

and they finish 6th in runs scored

 

Even a team like Cincy

 

26th in wRC+

2nd in BsR

3rd in SBs

 

and they finish 16th in runs scored

 

The past 2 years, the Jays have been 8th and 13th in wRC+, yet 14th and 23rd in runs scored. We've been 27th overall in BsR in each of those seasons. I really hope a guy like Gimenez can have a big impact with his legs and start to right the ship. Baserunning adds a ton of excitement to the fan experience too.

 

By the Statcast baserunning metric Gimenez was only a slightly above average baserunner at +1 runs. Horwitz rated very poorly at -4 runs in about 3/4 of a season's worth of playing time, so swapping these two players would lead to about a 5-6 run swing for the team's total. The Blue Jays were the second worst team by this metric at -14 runs, and swapping these two players would take them to about -8 runs or approximately 6th worst. Gimenez has posted +4 and +3 runs in prior seasons so perhaps he can bounce back a bit on the bases as his sprint speeds are only down a tick or two.

[max silver]

It seems like the Jays strategy for improving baserunning has just been to take major risks, all the time. Except most of our guys are slow, stupid, or both so it doesn’t work.

 

The actual numbers don't support this theory. If anything it appears as though the team might be playing things too safely on the bases as holds are the primary factor towards why they rank so poorly.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning-run-value?game_type=Regular&season_start=2024&season_end=2024&sortColumn=runner_runs_tot&sortDirection=asc&split=no&n=1&team=&type=Batting+Team&with_team_only=1

[Pendleton]

[Terminator]

You have this backwards. The majority of Vlad's negative run value was based on holding instead of attempting to take an extra base when the opportunity presented itself. He was essentially even when he attempted to take an extra base (+2 advances/-2 thrown out) but he was -4 due to holding when there was an extra base available to him.

 

Kirk's extreme passivity on the bases was the primary reason why he rated so poorly. He accumulated -3 runs on holds alone, where he had an opportunity to advance an extra base based on various factors and decided to not attempt to take the extra base. It's definitely a double edged sword with someone that slow though as the inherent risk of being thrown out on all but the easiest opportunities to advance would essentially negate most of these opportunities.

 

You seem to suggest that the negative numbers come from Vlad and Kirk choosing to not take the extra base when they could have. That could be, or are the negative numbers simply because they are slow and couldn't take the extra base? The latter would make more sense, especially with Kirk.

[Olerud363]

You seem to suggest that the negative numbers come from Vlad and Kirk choosing to not take the extra base when they could have. That could be, or are the negative numbers simply because they are slow and couldn't take the extra base? The latter would make more sense, especially with Kirk.

 

 

Just looked it up and Vlad's sprint speed is 45th percentile and his baserunning score is 1st percentile ! lol. Kirk's sprint is 4th and baserunning 6th percentile.

 

So Vlad should be able to clean up his baserunning a lot. Kirk is what he is.

[Terminator]

Just looked it up and Vlad's sprint speed is 45th percentile and his baserunning score is 1st percentile ! lol. Kirk's sprint is 4th and baserunning 6th percentile.

 

So Vlad should be able to clean up his baserunning a lot. Kirk is what he is.

 

It's surprising that Kirk is actually fast than someone lol. Must be some old guy. Young and fat is faster than old and fat.

[Terminator]

From Ben Clemens latest chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-12-16-24/

 

Guest: With a last place finish, and one of the worst farm systems, should the Jays start a fire sale and try to get some value for their top assets?

 

Ben Clemens: If Vlad is not interested in an extension, then maybe

 

Ben Clemens: if he is: you don’t get Vlads very often, maybe pay him and keep trying to win

[max silver]

You seem to suggest that the negative numbers come from Vlad and Kirk choosing to not take the extra base when they could have. That could be, or are the negative numbers simply because they are slow and couldn't take the extra base? The latter would make more sense, especially with Kirk.

 

That's my interpretation based on the explanation of the metric that's provided. It's supposed to create probabilities for success based on factors including the runner's sprint speed and outfielders arm strength. In Kirk's case it makes all the sense in the world that he should be super conservative on the bases but I believe Vlad is fast enough that he could likely take a few more bases than he does strictly based on the provided numbers.

 

For non-steal baserunning plays, an estimated success probability is generated for each opportunity using inputs that include runner speed, outfielder throwing arm, runner position on the basepaths and outfielder distance from both the ball and the bases. That can be translated to a run value based on whether the runner successfully takes the extra base, is thrown out or does not attempt to advance (holds).

[Terminator]

That's my interpretation based on the explanation of the metric that's provided. It's supposed to create probabilities for success based on factors including the runner's sprint speed and outfielders arm strength. In Kirk's case it makes all the sense in the world that he should be super conservative on the bases but I believe Vlad is fast enough that he could likely take a few more bases than he does strictly based on the provided numbers.

 

Gotcha! Ok you were right then.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Steamer Proj 2025:

 

C - Kirk (4.0)

1B - Vlad (5.0)

2B - Giminez (3.0)

3B - Clement (1.6)

SS - Bichette (3.6)

LF - Loperfido (0.1)

CF - Varsho (2.8)

RF - Springer (1.9)

DH - Wagner (0.9)

 

BN - Lukes (0.7)

BN - Heinemen (0.7)

BN - Schneider (0.7)

BN - Jiminez (0.3)

 

SP - Gausman (2.9)

SP - Berrios (1.9)

SP - Francis (1.6)

SP - Bassitt (2.2)

SP - Rodriguez (1.6)

 

Others that may factor in are Orelvis (0.5), Barger (0.6) and Roden (0.4)

 

Look at that giant gaping hole in LF where Soto would have went lol

Sure would be nice to have a youngster break out, perhaps Roden?

 

Any of Teo, Santander, Bregman would be of great help obviously.

[Stangstag]

Steamer Proj 2025:

 

C - Kirk (4.0)

1B - Vlad (5.0)

2B - Giminez (3.0)

3B - Clement (1.6)

SS - Bichette (3.6)

LF - Loperfido (0.1)

CF - Varsho (2.8)

RF - Springer (1.9)

DH - Wagner (0.9)

 

BN - Lukes (0.7)

BN - Heinemen (0.7)

BN - Schneider (0.7)

BN - Jiminez (0.3)

 

SP - Gausman (2.9)

SP - Berrios (1.9)

SP - Francis (1.6)

SP - Bassitt (2.2)

SP - Rodriguez (1.6)

 

Others that may factor in are Orelvis (0.5), Barger (0.6) and Roden (0.4)

 

Look at that giant gaping hole in LF where Soto would have went lol

Sure would be nice to have a youngster break out, perhaps Roden?

 

Any of Teo, Santander, Bregman would be of great help obviously.

 

We absolutely need an everyday OF or 3B. Preferably both, but 1 is a must. Roden as depth is a better option.

 

If we don’t address either position its gonna be an ugly year of 2-1 and 3-2 losses again

[Terminator]

I would say OF is a must. 3B is in a little bit better situation.

 

Clement projects for 2.6 WAR in 142 games (his projection above is based off 89 games). I'd still like to get another option in there but Clement's presence and the lack of 3B options in FA makes me think we can live with him there if LF is improved enough.

[jaysblue]

It's probably due to his low baseball IQ.

 

 

And the Jays rostered Justin Turner for half a season as well. Geez, no wonder why this lineup was so awful at scoring runs.

[jaysblue]

Steamer Proj 2025:

 

C - Kirk (4.0)

1B - Vlad (5.0)

2B - Giminez (3.0)

3B - Clement (1.6)

SS - Bichette (3.6)

LF - Loperfido (0.1)

CF - Varsho (2.8)

RF - Springer (1.9)

DH - Wagner (0.9)

 

BN - Lukes (0.7)

BN - Heinemen (0.7)

BN - Schneider (0.7)

BN - Jiminez (0.3)

 

SP - Gausman (2.9)

SP - Berrios (1.9)

SP - Francis (1.6)

SP - Bassitt (2.2)

SP - Rodriguez (1.6)

 

Others that may factor in are Orelvis (0.5), Barger (0.6) and Roden (0.4)

 

Look at that giant gaping hole in LF where Soto would have went lol

Sure would be nice to have a youngster break out, perhaps Roden?

 

Any of Teo, Santander, Bregman would be of great help obviously.

 

Projections aren't the be-all and end-all. Injuries do happen and other things.

 

Kind of a little too optimistic on Kirk IMO at 4 WAR. The rest seem fine.

 

Vladdy can possibly give the Jays 5-6 WAR. Bo can likely give us 3-4 WAR if he's back in form. Gimenez is likely around 3 WAR. If Springer can give us 2 WAR, would take it.

 

For the rotation, let's hope we can squeeze out a bit more WAR from guys like Gausman, Berrios and Francis.

 

Need a LF bat like Teo or Santander. As well, would be nice to add a DH like Pederson on top of that. Would roll the dice on Moncada at 3B if he came on a cheap one-year deal.

[G-Snarls]

Steamer Proj 2025:

 

C - Kirk (4.0)

1B - Vlad (5.0)

2B - Giminez (3.0)

3B - Clement (1.6)

SS - Bichette (3.6)

LF - Loperfido (0.1)

CF - Varsho (2.8)

RF - Springer (1.9)

DH - Wagner (0.9)

 

BN - Lukes (0.7)

BN - Heinemen (0.7)

BN - Schneider (0.7)

BN - Jiminez (0.3)

 

SP - Gausman (2.9)

SP - Berrios (1.9)

SP - Francis (1.6)

SP - Bassitt (2.2)

SP - Rodriguez (1.6)

 

Others that may factor in are Orelvis (0.5), Barger (0.6) and Roden (0.4)

 

Look at that giant gaping hole in LF where Soto would have went lol

Sure would be nice to have a youngster break out, perhaps Roden?

 

Any of Teo, Santander, Bregman would be of great help obviously.

 

Exactly

 

A better 3B and LF move Clement and Loperfido to the bench providing decent depth in case of injuries

[jaysblue]

Exactly

 

A better 3B and LF move Clement and Loperfido to the bench providing decent depth in case of injuries

 

Ideally if money was no issue.

 

Not sure the Jays could sign both Bregman and one of Teo/Santander etc. If they could, this team definitely becomes a serious contender.