General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

CD - you're concerned with Vlad's performance with RISP? I assume you'd like to see him performing like one of these middle of the order superstars:

 

Yordan Alvarez

Matt Olson

Rafael Devers

Shohei Ohtani

 

These guys are proven studs. Let's look under the hood of what they've done this year with RISP

 

Alvarez - 75 wRC+, 2 hrs

Olson - 77 wRC+, 2 hrs

Devers - 82 wRC+, 3 hrs

Ohtani - 95 wRC+, 1 hr

 

Vlad - 125 wRC+, 4 hrs - his 4 hrs with RISP actually ties him for 22nd in MLB.

 

From 2021 to 2024, he's tied for 23rd in all of baseball with 24 hrs with RISP and has a 129 wRC+ (47th overall). It's not Top 5, elite production, but I'm not so sure it's a major cause for concern either.

 

If you look at most good hitters, you'll see that some years, they bat better with RISP (as compared to their overall stats) and other years, they bat worst with RISP. Vlad was a stud with RISP in 2021, but was s*** last year. Things haven't been bad at all this year. Most players are only getting 150-175 PA's with RISP over a full season, so there's always going to be variance in those SSS numbers.

[Carlos Danger]

CD - you're concerned with Vlad's performance with RISP? I assume you'd like to see him performing like one of these middle of the order superstars:

 

Yordan Alvarez

Matt Olson

Rafael Devers

Shohei Ohtani

 

These guys are proven studs. Let's look under the hood of what they've done this year with RISP

 

Alvarez - 75 wRC+, 2 hrs

Olson - 77 wRC+, 2 hrs

Devers - 82 wRC+, 3 hrs

Ohtani - 95 wRC+, 1 hr

 

Vlad - 125 wRC+, 4 hrs - his 4 hrs with RISP actually ties him for 22nd in MLB.

 

From 2021 to 2024, he's tied for 23rd in all of baseball with 24 hrs with RISP and has a 129 wRC+ (47th overall). It's not Top 5, elite production, but I'm not so sure it's a major cause for concern either.

 

If you look at most good hitters, you'll see that some years, they bat better with RISP (as compared to their overall stats) and other years, they bat worst with RISP. Vlad was a stud with RISP in 2021, but was s*** last year. Things haven't been bad at all this year. Most players are only getting 150-175 PA's with RISP over a full season, so there's always going to be variance in those SSS numbers.

 

Go back 7 days and take out the 4 hrs and 12 RBIs.

 

I specifically mentioned that I want to see consistency. I stated “up until” the last week or so.

 

Also, as Big Cecil pointed out. I can Cherry pick Whataboutisms all day long. I am looking at Vlad’s overall body of work from 2022 since a 3 yr sample size is generally the industry standard to make an evaluation and eliminate outliers.

 

If we are going to compare Olson and Alvarez etc, let’s go back to the start of the 2022 season to present.

 

Lastly, I am worried about the Blue Jays and their results and accountability.

 

We (the Jays) need to win consistently, Vlad “our superstar” needs to produce to that level consistently. This is also in the context of if/should we and if so how much an extension.

 

Saying “some” other guys are underperforming also, is not a results oriented solution or analysis in my world.

[The_DH]

I'm not sure I agree with that. He was the #1 hitter on the team in 2021 and 2022, when the Jays were a Top 2 offense in baseball. He didn't produce last year, but appears to have made adjustments and is trending up once again as a hitter.

 

Disagree. Semien set the tone in 2021.

[Brownie19]

Disagree. Semien set the tone in 2021.

 

Well I'm sorry, but that's just wrong. Vlad was 2nd in MVP voting. wRC+ was 166 to 131 by Semien. His Off (offense + base running) was 54.8 (which lead all of baseball), Semien was 29.6. Even the old school counting numbers were better for Vlad across the board (minus SBs). Semien was GREAT, but Vlad was the best hitter on the Jays in 2021 and it wasn't really remotely close.

[The_DH]

Well I'm sorry, but that's just wrong. Vlad was 2nd in MVP voting. wRC+ was 166 to 131 by Semien. His Off (offense + base running) was 54.8 (which lead all of baseball), Semien was 29.6. Even the old school counting numbers were better for Vlad across the board (minus SBs). Semien was GREAT, but Vlad was the best hitter on the Jays in 2021 and it wasn't really remotely close.

 

I agree with your analysis but I think he hits better when batting behind better hitters. Some hitters can do well even with 8 other s***** hitters. He's not one of them.

[glory]

From Mr. Arson Judge:

 

 

The Blue Jays were intending to buy but may need to face reality at 36-43 with a minus 56-run differential.

 

It would take guts to sell big considering fans in that major market were hoping to see Shohei Ohtani (or Juan Soto) in a Jays uniform. But it may be advisable now. (The Jays understand time is short, but they aren’t ready to make the sell call yet.)

 

They should be better than this, but offensively they have issues. They lost Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernandez, and also came up well short in an under-the-radar effort to sign Corey Seager before he went to Texas.

 

They aren’t going to want to trade Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. with both having another year to go before free agency. But word is, past long-term negotiations with both stars never came close to agreement. And folks who know the pair believe the Jays have little to no chance to lock up Bichette, and maybe only a slightly better chance with Guerrero.

 

Bichette has more value now to the Dodgers; Guerrero to the Mariners, Astros, Pirates and others.

 

Free agent to be Yusei Kikuchi is probably a more likely trade candidate, along with Yimi Garcia. And rival teams would love to see Chris Bassitt out there, too.

 

If they pay deals down, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are tradeable, too.

[Laika]

Sell everyone.

[glory]

I want the Jays to extend Vlad, but obviously it takes two to tango, so if he's not ready to put pen to paper or wants to test free agency, then you have to consider moving him too.

[Carlos Danger]

From Mr. Arson Judge:

 

 

That tracks with what my eyes, ears and gut tell me. If an extension were viable, it probably would have happened now on at least one of them. At this point you have very little leverage for an extension.

 

The other issue that I can’t over emphasize, is the issue that both Vlad and Bo are MLB kids. They are want for naught in their families. This eliminates the need to lock in generational wealth before an career ending injury or decline in performance etc.

 

I would say 90% Bo is gone by end of 2025 and Vlad 50%.

[John_Havok]

Also, as Big Cecil pointed out. I can Cherry pick Whataboutisms all day long. I am looking at Vlad’s overall body of work from 2022 since a 3 yr sample size is generally the industry standard to make an evaluation and eliminate outliers.

 

Brownie literally just gave you a sample size of more than 3 years.... so not sure how this makes sense. Ya can't just say "use the 3 years up to a week ago.... because reasons"

 

Olson wRC+ with RISP from 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 - 136 , 133, 193, 77 (overall wRC+ those same years - 147, 120, 160, 110)

Alvarez wRC+ with RISP from those same years - 157, 152, 222, 75 (overall wRC+ those same years - 137, 185, 170, 145)

Vlad wRC+ with RISP same years - 173, 116, 97, 125 (overall wRC+ 166, 133, 118, 136)

 

Olson wrc+ with RISP compare to overall, worse, better, far better, far worse

Yordan same comparisons - better, worse, otherworldly better, terribly worse

Vlad - better, worse, worse, worse

 

Its almost like they can't really control what they do with RISP, and the sample sizes induce large variance swings. Like, I don't think you would just say "boy it looks like Olson and Alvarez have just forgot how to hit with RISP this season..."

 

But there are general truths like when a hitter hits well overall, they also hit well with RISP. When they aren't hitting well overall, they don't hit well with RISP. This myth that players can just summon the clutch ability at will it pure romanticist garbage.

[AMS528]

I’m less convinced of trading Vlad. But I don’t think he should be extended long-term unless he plays to a level that shows he deserves it. Definitely not throwing 160 or 200M at him hoping he figures it out. The bar for actually being difficult to replace at 1B is too high. If he finished the season strong and finishes within a 3-4 win season then yeah maybe.

 

Bo has so many red flags that I think an extension would be madness.

 

He's tracking for it at this point.

 

And again taking a look here, there's gotta be something to tweak to take his bat from very good, which it is as of right now, and take it to elite. Like you know if he leaves it's going to happen elsewhere (and if it does if Shapiro or Atkins are here they should both be launched into the sun).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[John_Havok]

He's tracking for it at this point.

 

And again taking a look here, there's gotta be something to tweak to take his bat from very good, which it is as of right now, and take it to elite. Like you know if he leaves it's going to happen elsewhere (and if it does if Shapiro or Atkins are here they should both be launched into the sun).

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Compare him to Shohei.... realistically the only meaningful difference in Shohei vs Vlad is the LA Sweet Spot.... shohei 84th percentile, Vlad ... 23rd percentile.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shohei-ohtani-660271?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Carlos Danger]

Brownie literally just gave you a sample size of more than 3 years.... so not sure how this makes sense. Ya can't just say "use the 3 years up to a week ago.... because reasons"

 

Olson wRC+ with RISP from 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 - 136 , 133, 193, 77 (overall wRC+ those same years - 147, 120, 160, 110)

Alvarez wRC+ with RISP from those same years - 157, 152, 222, 75 (overall wRC+ those same years - 137, 185, 170, 145)

Vlad wRC+ with RISP same years - 173, 116, 97, 125 (overall wRC+ 166, 133, 118, 136)

 

Olson wrc+ with RISP compare to overall, worse, better, far better, far worse

Yordan same comparisons - better, worse, otherworldly better, terribly worse

Vlad - better, worse, worse, worse

 

Its almost like they can't really control what they do with RISP, and the sample sizes induce large variance swings. Like, I don't think you would just say "boy it looks like Olson and Alvarez have just forgot how to hit with RISP this season..."

 

But there are general truths like when a hitter hits well overall, they also hit well with RISP. When they aren't hitting well overall, they don't hit well with RISP. This myth that players can just summon the clutch ability at will it pure romanticist garbage.

 

On an airplane about to take off so can’t rebut much other than to say every mlb pitcher will tell you that batters are generally not pitched the same with runners on or RISP then without. So it is not some romanticism, it is ability to adapt.

 

Up until apprx 7 -10 days ago, Vladdy was having some very poor quality ABs and the results in general were just not there with runners on.

 

I am saying that I want to see more consistency and I expect more and we all should from what we have seen in 2022, 2023 and through the half way point of June 2024.

 

I’l be back

 

 

 

Later……

[AMS528]

Compare him to Shohei.... realistically the only meaningful difference in Shohei vs Vlad is the LA Sweet Spot.... shohei 84th percentile, Vlad ... 23rd percentile.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shohei-ohtani-660271?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

He wouldn't even need to be close to that to have huge numbers. Compare him to Soto who has also doesn't have great launch angle numbers. He's at the 48th percentile. If Vladdy was there his numbers would shoot up to a top ten hitter in baseball.

[Laika]

still the same issue for Vlad, just needs more flyballs less groundballs

 

he has been excellent in May+June (167 and 150 wRC+) but not because he is hitting more flyballs. looks like just better swing decisions - K rate is much lower.

 

his wOBA this year is .237 on groundballs and .494 on flyballs. career split is similar.

 

 

the current version of Vlad is .280/.360/.450 or something like that

 

if he traded some groundballs for flyballs he could very realistically be .260/.340/.540 in my opinion. that is WAY more production and probably 15% better or so by wRC+

 

that seems like too big of a bump in SLG but I think it's realistic. lots of those flyballs are going to go over the wall! There is no reason he can't sustain a massive ISO

 

it's just absurd that he doesn't have a .200+ ISO all the f***ing time, it makes me want to cry

[John_Havok]

still the same issue for Vlad, just needs more flyballs less groundballs

 

he has been excellent in May+June (167 and 150 wRC+) but not because he is hitting more flyballs. looks like just better swing decisions - K rate is much lower.

 

his wOBA this year is .237 on groundballs and .494 on flyballs. career split is similar.

 

 

the current version of Vlad is .280/.360/.450 or something like that

 

if he traded some groundballs for flyballs he could very realistically be .260/.340/.540 in my opinion. that is WAY more production and probably 15% better or so by wRC+

 

that seems like too big of a bump in SLG but I think it's realistic. lots of those flyballs are going to go over the wall! There is no reason he can't sustain a massive ISO

 

it's just absurd that he doesn't have a .200+ ISO all the f***ing time, it makes me want to cry

 

Is there a tool out there that shows what locations of pitches he hits on the ground more often?

[Olerud363]

Compare him to Shohei.... realistically the only meaningful difference in Shohei vs Vlad is the LA Sweet Spot.... shohei 84th percentile, Vlad ... 23rd percentile.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shohei-ohtani-660271?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

It's impossible to teach someone to hit the ball with top 3 MLB exit Vs.

 

Vlad put's like 70 or 80 more balls in play per 160 games than Judge or Shohei. If you fixed his launch angle it would be Pujols-prime.

 

So you may have some team sign him to a 350 million 9 year deal based on their biomechanics guy saying he can help increase the launch angle.

 

For years I've been saying exactly where this is going... Vlad hitting .361 .470 .710 for another team and bringing 10 years of pure joy to another fan base.

[L54]

It's impossible to teach someone to hit the ball with top 3 MLB exit Vs.

 

Vlad put's like 70 or 80 more balls in play per 160 games than Judge or Shohei. If you fixed his launch angle it would be Pujols-prime.

 

So you may have some team sign him to a 350 million 9 year deal based on their biomechanics guy saying he can help increase the launch angle.

 

For years I've been saying exactly where this is going... Vlad hitting .361 .470 .710 for another team and bringing 10 years of pure joy to another fan base.

 

That new team should be the Jays with a new FO

 

If Vlad walks he will become something like Albert Pujols within two seasons

[Olerud363]

still the same issue for Vlad, just needs more flyballs less groundballs

 

he has been excellent in May+June (167 and 150 wRC+) but not because he is hitting more flyballs. looks like just better swing decisions - K rate is much lower.

 

his wOBA this year is .237 on groundballs and .494 on flyballs. career split is similar.

 

 

the current version of Vlad is .280/.360/.450 or something like that

 

if he traded some groundballs for flyballs he could very realistically be .260/.340/.540 in my opinion. that is WAY more production and probably 15% better or so by wRC+

 

that seems like too big of a bump in SLG but I think it's realistic. lots of those flyballs are going to go over the wall! There is no reason he can't sustain a massive ISO

 

it's just absurd that he doesn't have a .200+ ISO all the f***ing time, it makes me want to cry

 

Way too low if he is striking out only 100 times a year. I guess if he becomes Mr. Popup or something maybe.

 

If he could optimize his launch angle he's a .320 .400 .600 guy... the guy he was at 18, 19 and 22. He's had a 99.9th percentile season for his age 3 times, so that's his ceiling if he fixes his issue.

 

And he will... with the Red Sox. That fat Bastard will probably last until he is 42 with them and in 2041 the city of Boston will have the 'goodbye Vlad' party... their second Ortiz.

[Laika]

Way too low if he is striking out only 100 times a year. I guess if he becomes Mr. Popup or something maybe.

 

If he could optimize his launch angle he's a .320 .400 .600 guy... the guy he was at 18, 19 and 22. He's had a 99.9th percentile season for his age 3 times, so that's his ceiling if he fixes his issue.

 

And he will... with the Red Sox. That fat Bastard will probably last until he is 42 with them and in 2041 the city of Boston will have the 'goodbye Vlad' party... their second Ortiz.

 

I'm not even saying perfect anything

 

Just trade some GB for FB

 

Maybe just some specific trick like a D swing he puts on low sliders or something

[max silver]

Is there a tool out there that shows what locations of pitches he hits on the ground more often?

 

There is a Statcast zone category for ground ball rates. It's low key kind of amazing he has such a high ground ball rate on pitches up and in.

 

[WryNGinger]

Bichette has not been shy for the last few years of his distain for the way players that are under control of teams when the players are outperforming their contracts/salaries. Have any of you seriously thought he would sign with the Jays for anything other than a contract that would assume he will be one of the best players in MLB?

 

He views himself as elite. He hates the MLB arbitration system. He has gone to arb just to point out the flaws in the system.

 

Jays should trade him asap and get the best return they can before the trade deadline.

[G-Snarls]

Bichette has not been shy for the last few years of his distain for the way players that are under control of teams when the players are outperforming their contracts/salaries. Have any of you seriously thought he would sign with the Jays for anything other than a contract that would assume he will be one of the best players in MLB?

 

He views himself as elite. He hates the MLB arbitration system. He has gone to arb just to point out the flaws in the system.

 

Jays should trade him asap and get the best return they can before the trade deadline.

 

This trade deadline would maximize the value in terms of control for a post season bound team. You get him this season and a draft pick if he walks. Problem is he's sucked this year - which is a big part of the reason they Jays are in this s***** position in the first place.

[BigCecil]

I want the Jays to extend Vlad, but obviously it takes two to tango, so if he's not ready to put pen to paper or wants to test free agency, then you have to consider moving him too.

 

In a nutshell this is it. Vlad still doesn't pull much 94+ but he he took 96 out to RCF last night. He can still be so impressive. Tantalizing.

 

With his age, the way he has gotten in shape and his EVs a reasonable extension makes sense. I just don't he will sign such an animal.

 

So move him at value this deadline instead of pulling an LAA and milking him with fan base for 1 more season, and ending up with much less value back or a comp pick.

[Sorrow]

Romano is off to see Dr. Meister as he's having more elbow pain during long toss. Likely the end of his Jays tenure.

[glory]

In a nutshell this is it. Vlad still doesn't pull much 94+ but he he took 96 out to RCF last night. He can still be so impressive. Tantalizing.

 

With his age, the way he has gotten in shape and his EVs a reasonable extension makes sense. I just don't he will sign such an animal.

 

So move him at value this deadline instead of pulling an LAA and milking him with fan base for 1 more season, and ending up with much less value back or a comp pick.

 

I'm really curious what his trade value is at this point. A wRC+ around 140, with recent performance being excellent. Only 25 years old with another year of control after this one. Reputation greater than his performance at this point but still considered a big star in the league. If the team can't find a way to get him extended, or he doesn't want to be extended, then at the very least he's probably increased his trade value to the point of getting something good back. I know Houston was mentioned as a team interested in him, but Seattle makes a lot more sense to me.

[Stangstag]

Romano is off to see Dr. Meister as he's having more elbow pain during long toss. Likely the end of his Jays tenure.

 

Would be nice if we could have him back on a cheap 1-yr deal after he recovers from surgery

[Brownie19]

I just heard them say on the broadcast that IKF is using a new approach this year - trying to catch that ball out in front and hit it with authority to the pull side. This would seemingly go against the theory that some believe Donnie Baseball is implementing a "use all fields, let the ball travel, put the ball in play" approach for all/most players.

[BigCecil]

Would be nice if we could have him back on a cheap 1-yr deal after he recovers from surgery

Look at Romanos stats the last 3 years and then what Ross signed Chad Green for and then doubled down on with the option

[G-Snarls]

Should we dump KK and trade for/sign a better 4th OF?