General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Varsho has the same fWAR as Moreno and Gurriel combined for half the money.

 

What a f***ing steal by Atkins in that trade

[max silver]

Varsho is playing amazing and I'm really happy for him. I've hated on him A LOT but his play really warranted that. He seems like a great teammate and always stayed positive throughout the whole process. Take notes Manoah.

 

I really don't think Varsho's play warranted anywhere close to the amount of hate that he received online. Moreno was barely a league average bat himself which made the hot take overreactions for the trade all the more baffling.

[Daniel Labude]

 

Good thread

[Jays24]

I really don't think Varsho's play warranted anywhere close to the amount of hate that he received online. Moreno was barely a league average bat himself which made the hot take overreactions for the trade all the more baffling.

 

Performing in the playoffs as a ROOKIE is something remarkable so there's no reason to put down Moreno especially when we've seen all our hitters shrivel when the lights get brighter. Gurriel also played great for his standards.

 

What made the Varsho trade receive more hate was seeing an overweight Kirk struggle. Whether justified or not, the trade made it seem like the front office chose Kirk over Moreno. Then the front office decided to sign KK, which made Varsho's best skillset less valuable. This was while Varsho was batting 9th for one of the worst offenses that were in the playoffs.

 

With all that said, i think it's pretty easy to see where the frustration came from so let's not be naive here. No one expects Varsho to keep up this offensive production but let's hope he continues to improve on a down year, it's great to see

[jaysthebest]

 

Good thread

 

Then I guess the team should pay Vlad as much as the league-average hitter. Plus, he is a terrible baserunner and fielder, so the only thing he can contribute is his offense so he has to do a lot better than now.

[Laika]

 

Good thread

 

This is not a good thread. Place Vlad in his prospect context (80/80 hitter, "messianic" hit tool, etc) and most of these points are obviously dumb.

 

- "better than average chase rate" --> bro who the f*** cares he was supposed to be the MESSIAH not "above average"

- "numbers on middle-middle bunnies "pretty much the best" on the Jays over the last few years" --> why would we compare him to other Jays hitters? Those aren't supposed to be his peers. How does he compare to Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Mookie... also lmao at "pretty much the best" because that means "not the best". He should be twice as good as the next best Jay on these pitches!!!!

- "If you say the elite exit velo is just because of groundballs, you're wrong." --> nobody says this. they say he wastes too many hard hit balls on the ground.

- "If you say he's a one-year wonder, you're wrong. Over his entire career, he as the 6th best OPS+ in franchise history." --> funny how you keep using OPS and not WAR, Chris.

- "If you say Bo Bichette is more reliable since that one trascendent year, you're wrong." --> Chris, nobody says this. This is not your first straw man in this thread.

[Jays24]

Fans don't give a f*** about the underlying numbers for Vlad. That's meant for front offices to help tweak things to help him improve. We just care about his actual performance on the field. This will be the 3rd year in a row he has massively underperformed if he doesn't turn things around.

 

Now im definitely not on board the people who want to get rid of him. I still hold out hope he'll figure things out eventually. Even if he doesn't, his value won't be all that great considering his recent performance and uncertain contractual status.

[Brownie19]

Performing in the playoffs as a ROOKIE is something remarkable so there's no reason to put down Moreno especially when we've seen all our hitters shrivel when the lights get brighter. Gurriel also played great for his standards.

 

What made the Varsho trade receive more hate was seeing an overweight Kirk struggle. Whether justified or not, the trade made it seem like the front office chose Kirk over Moreno. Then the front office decided to sign KK, which made Varsho's best skillset less valuable. This was while Varsho was batting 9th for one of the worst offenses that were in the playoffs.

 

With all that said, i think it's pretty easy to see where the frustration came from so let's not be naive here. No one expects Varsho to keep up this offensive production but let's hope he continues to improve on a down year, it's great to see

 

Moreno hit .238 with a 101 wRC+ and a 29% K rate in the playoffs last year. Let's not pretend he was 2022 Jeremy Pena

[Jays24]

Moreno hit .238 with a 101 wRC+ and a 29% K rate in the playoffs last year. Let's not pretend he was 2022 Jeremy Pena

 

Sure but it was still pretty damn good for a ROOKIE. Not sure why people are overlooking the most important part. Everyone was drooling over his potential in future years once he gets some more reps and rightfully so.

 

Now whether he realizes that potential or goes down the Kirk/Vladdy path where they tantalize you with their potential but never actually perform going forward is TBD.

[wilko]

Moreno's a powerless slap hitting backup catcher. I'm glad we kept the fat one.

[Daniel Labude]

This is not a good thread. Place Vlad in his prospect context (80/80 hitter, "messianic" hit tool, etc) and most of these points are obviously dumb.

 

- "better than average chase rate" --> bro who the f*** cares he was supposed to be the MESSIAH not "above average"

- "numbers on middle-middle bunnies "pretty much the best" on the Jays over the last few years" --> why would we compare him to other Jays hitters? Those aren't supposed to be his peers. How does he compare to Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Mookie... also lmao at "pretty much the best" because that means "not the best". He should be twice as good as the next best Jay on these pitches!!!!

- "If you say the elite exit velo is just because of groundballs, you're wrong." --> nobody says this. they say he wastes too many hard hit balls on the ground.

- "If you say he's a one-year wonder, you're wrong. Over his entire career, he as the 6th best OPS+ in franchise history." --> funny how you keep using OPS and not WAR, Chris.

- "If you say Bo Bichette is more reliable since that one trascendent year, you're wrong." --> Chris, nobody says this. This is not your first straw man in this thread.

 

So you fall in the misguided idiot robot category, got it

[mphenhef]

It's a good thread, but I don't want to see Vlad compared to other underperforming Jays players.

[Daniel Labude]

It's a good thread, but I don't want to see Vlad compared to other underperforming Jays players.

 

Underperforming Jays players have become the norm sadly. Varsho might be breaking that mold though

[Brownie19]

Sure but it was still pretty damn good for a ROOKIE. Not sure why people are overlooking the most important part. Everyone was drooling over his potential in future years once he gets some more reps and rightfully so.

 

Now whether he realizes that potential or goes down the Kirk/Vladdy path where they tantalize you with their potential but never actually perform going forward is TBD.

 

The playoffs are typically a SSS. It's often just who gets hot and/or lucky at the right time. There are veterans who suck balls and rookie who step up almost every year. Evan Carter practically carried the Rangers to a title last year, Jeremy Pena the year before. The fact Moreno was a rookie and hit a few playoff home runs is interesting, but it's no predictor of future success. Jeremy Pena was a good example of this.

 

If the playoffs started on April 12th this year, Varsho would be on his way to becoming a playoff legend. Fans would be jizzing at how "clutch" Varsho is. Playoff success on a small scale is almost meaningless for a player. You need to create a history of playoff success for it to matter and few are able to do that (remember when George Springer was the new Reggie Jackson? Me too - that ended quickly didn't it).

[Stangstag]

This is not a good thread. Place Vlad in his prospect context (80/80 hitter, "messianic" hit tool, etc) and most of these points are obviously dumb.

 

- "better than average chase rate" --> bro who the f*** cares he was supposed to be the MESSIAH not "above average"

- "numbers on middle-middle bunnies "pretty much the best" on the Jays over the last few years" --> why would we compare him to other Jays hitters? Those aren't supposed to be his peers. How does he compare to Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Mookie... also lmao at "pretty much the best" because that means "not the best". He should be twice as good as the next best Jay on these pitches!!!!

- "If you say the elite exit velo is just because of groundballs, you're wrong." --> nobody says this. they say he wastes too many hard hit balls on the ground.

- "If you say he's a one-year wonder, you're wrong. Over his entire career, he as the 6th best OPS+ in franchise history." --> funny how you keep using OPS and not WAR, Chris.

- "If you say Bo Bichette is more reliable since that one trascendent year, you're wrong." --> Chris, nobody says this. This is not your first straw man in this thread.

 

I can’t believe this dude is still a Vladdy knob goblin after all these years.

 

Vlad deserves to be roasted, he brings 0 defensive value to the team and he’s an average bat for a 1B at best.

[max silver]

Performing in the playoffs as a ROOKIE is something remarkable so there's no reason to put down Moreno especially when we've seen all our hitters shrivel when the lights get brighter. Gurriel also played great for his standards.

 

What made the Varsho trade receive more hate was seeing an overweight Kirk struggle. Whether justified or not, the trade made it seem like the front office chose Kirk over Moreno. Then the front office decided to sign KK, which made Varsho's best skillset less valuable. This was while Varsho was batting 9th for one of the worst offenses that were in the playoffs.

 

With all that said, i think it's pretty easy to see where the frustration came from so let's not be naive here. No one expects Varsho to keep up this offensive production but let's hope he continues to improve on a down year, it's great to see

 

Moreno hit a few home runs in the first two series of the playoffs and the reactionary idiots basically acted like he was the second coming of Johnny Bench or something. When Moreno cooled off and did essentially nothing over the rest of the playoffs and returned to essentially a league average bat for the playoffs as a whole you would think the bitching would have subsided at least somewhat but sadly that wasn't the case.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I can’t believe this dude is still a Vladdy knob goblin after all these years.

 

Vlad deserves to be roasted, he brings 0 defensive value to the team and he’s an average bat for a 1B at best.

 

It’s going to be the funniest s*** ever when all of Vlad’s die hard supporters turn on him after he’s non tendered, while acting like they knew Vlad was mediocre all along.

 

I remember quite a few twitter heads calling people ridiculous for suggesting Montoyo would be fired and then acting like it was the obvious choice all along after it happened.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Vladdy is in his prime now and has dwindled down to being a 1 fWAR first baseman with a $20 million price tag.

 

If he has another 1 fWAR season this year the Jays are seriously going to have to consider DFA'ing him instead of arbitration.

 

That's how bad it's gotten.

[Olerud363]

This is not a good thread. Place Vlad in his prospect context (80/80 hitter, "messianic" hit tool, etc) and most of these points are obviously dumb.

 

- "better than average chase rate" --> bro who the f*** cares he was supposed to be the MESSIAH not "above average"

- "numbers on middle-middle bunnies "pretty much the best" on the Jays over the last few years" --> why would we compare him to other Jays hitters? Those aren't supposed to be his peers. How does he compare to Judge, Soto, Alvarez, Mookie... also lmao at "pretty much the best" because that means "not the best". He should be twice as good as the next best Jay on these pitches!!!!

- "If you say the elite exit velo is just because of groundballs, you're wrong." --> nobody says this. they say he wastes too many hard hit balls on the ground.

- "If you say he's a one-year wonder, you're wrong. Over his entire career, he as the 6th best OPS+ in franchise history." --> funny how you keep using OPS and not WAR, Chris.

- "If you say Bo Bichette is more reliable since that one trascendent year, you're wrong." --> Chris, nobody says this. This is not your first straw man in this thread.

 

I have been a fan for a long time. There were many days when I thought 100% Guerrero would be Frank Thomas/Pujols level for a decade

 

1. Montreal late March 2018 that walk off may still be the greatest moment of his career.

2. April 2018 in Hartford there were already like 100 autograph hounds after him. He was an unbelievable presence. Impressive at the plate

3. Boston June 2021. I was at Fenway. He led the AL in all 3 classical stats, and all 3 advanced stats. He hit like a 450 homerun like every game of that series.

4. The all star homer in Coors where Fernando Tatis Jr. said holy f*** as he was being interviewde

5. Rogers Center April 2022 against Oakland. To start 2022 he hit a 460 foot bomb against Texas, a 3 homer game against Garret Cole, and then an opposite field 420 shot against Oakland a couple of days later, in that moment it looked like Vlad, not Aaron Judge would be challenging 60 in 2022....

 

And that was it. Hasn't been a legend since. I bet like half his 2022 WAR was in the first 10 games.

 

For better or worse I compare him to those 5 moments... and have sort of given up on him getting back there with the Jays.

[Olerud363]

 

Good thread

 

Kendry Morales underrated? You betcha. Many people associate Kendry with the lost seasons and letdown following 2016. He replaced Edwin Encanarcion after all... but did you know

 

1. Kendry hit the ball harder than any Blue Jays in his time with the Jays

2. Kendry had a .380 batting average and .690 slugging on middle middle fastballs under 95 mph

3. Kendry had an above average chase rate.

4. Kendry exit velocity was not only good on grounders but good on fly balls and line drives too.

5. Kendry and Justin Smoak were the greatest switch hitting 1b/dh Power duo the Jays have ever had.

[Terminator]

I haven't received my marching orders from Captain Spanky yet, but I presume that Team Not Panicking is in an official HOLD position when it comes to Vlad stocks.

 

You all can write him off if you want, but he's got a 118 wRC+ right now and if he had one hot week he'd shoot up to the 140+ range where we all want him to be.

 

Generational superstar is looking less likely, but I have a feeling that Team Not Panicking will be once again feeling good about our position in light of all this non-tender talk.

[glory]

Moreno's a powerless slap hitting backup catcher. I'm glad we kept the fat one.

 

I mean, the fat one is looking like a powerless slap hitting backup catcher as well at this point (granted with good defense), but either way, if Varsho is a 4 WAR player with a 100 or better wRC+ like he was pre-2023, then it really doesn't matter what Moreno does. The Jays badly needed a controllable OF who could play CF and had 3 catchers. If Varsho holds up his end, then the Jays got what they traded for. They might regret not having Moreno in 2025 when the only catcher on the 40 man roster will be Kirk and his now noodle bat, but they could bring back Jansen or sign/trade for another catcher as well. Cross that bridge when you get there. Either way, good to see Varsho performing well. With Vlad's 2023 bleeding into 2024 now, the Jays are going to need as much offense/WAR from others as possible.

[wilko]

Garrett Cooper DFA'd by the Cubs. Should the Jays DFA Vladdy and grab Cooper?

[Eat My Shatkins]

I haven't received my marching orders from Captain Spanky yet, but I presume that Team Not Panicking is in an official HOLD position when it comes to Vlad stocks.

 

You all can write him off if you want, but he's got a 118 wRC+ right now and if he had one hot week he'd shoot up to the 140+ range where we all want him to be.

 

Generational superstar is looking less likely, but I have a feeling that Team Not Panicking will be once again feeling good about our position in light of all this non-tender talk.

 

Man I hope so.

 

When it comes to Vlad I hope to get dunked on ASAP and in perpetuity

[burlingtonbandit]

I haven't received my marching orders from Captain Spanky yet, but I presume that Team Not Panicking is in an official HOLD position when it comes to Vlad stocks.

 

You all can write him off if you want, but he's got a 118 wRC+ right now and if he had one hot week he'd shoot up to the 140+ range where we all want him to be.

 

Generational superstar is looking less likely, but I have a feeling that Team Not Panicking will be once again feeling good about our position in light of all this non-tender talk.

 

I can't believe some are talking about non-tendering him. People are saying well because he underperformed his xwOBA last year and is again doing so through 25 games that he's some outlier and want to say it will continue etc..

 

Well in 4 years from 2019-2022 his expected wOBA was within his xwOBA every year within .004.

 

In 2022 he had a 133 wRC+ with a .351 wOBA and put up 3.4 WAR. I think that's a reasonable expectation this year and would be just fine for what this team needs.

[Olerud363]

I can't believe some are talking about non-tendering him. People are saying well because he underperformed his xwOBA last year and is again doing so through 25 games that he's some outlier and want to say it will continue etc..

 

Well in 4 years from 2019-2022 his expected wOBA was within his xwOBA every year within .004.

 

In 2022 he had a 133 wRC+ with a .351 wOBA and put up 3.4 WAR. I think that's a reasonable expectation this year and would be just fine for what this team needs.

 

I recall someone doing a analysis on Kendry Morales who also under-performed his xwOBA consistently and said Vlad has similarities.

 

No one is wanting to release him if he has 3.5 WAR. However he is on track for another 1ish WAR season. The release scenario is like a .250 22 hr 90 rbi 1 WAR season and 25 million dollar arbitration win

[Eat My Shatkins]

I can't believe some are talking about non-tendering him. People are saying well because he underperformed his xwOBA last year and is again doing so through 25 games that he's some outlier and want to say it will continue etc..

 

Well in 4 years from 2019-2022 his expected wOBA was within his xwOBA every year within .004.

 

In 2022 he had a 133 wRC+ with a .351 wOBA and put up 3.4 WAR. I think that's a reasonable expectation this year and would be just fine for what this team needs.

 

Well, I'm talking about non-tendering him if he puts up another 1 fWAR season this year. Horwitz could probably give the Jays 1 fWAR for 1/25th the cost, so it's something that would need to be considered.

 

If he puts up 3.4 fWAR that's a different story.

[Orgfiller]

I recall someone doing a analysis on Kendry Morales who also under-performed his xwOBA consistently and said Vlad has similarities.

 

No one is wanting to release him if he has 3.5 WAR. However he is on track for another 1ish WAR season. The release scenario is like a .250 22 hr 90 rbi 1 WAR season and 25 million dollar arbitration win

 

I think Kendrys Morales was just really slow/immobile and in the middle of the shift peak. He probably lost a ton of expected hits by having a second baseman camped out in shallow RF. And then any other play that an average runner would beat out. And any number of long singles because he's too slow to take second.

[Abomination]

The only real issue with Vlad is that he's killing too many worms. Most power hitters seem to be in the 0.80 to 1.10 GB/FB range. This year Vlad is at 1.84. His line drive rate is the best in his career and he's 23rd in average exit velocity. His walk and K rates are outstanding. It's also worth remembering that he's only just turned 25.

[burlingtonbandit]

I recall someone doing a analysis on Kendry Morales who also under-performed his xwOBA consistently and said Vlad has similarities.

 

No one is wanting to release him if he has 3.5 WAR. However he is on track for another 1ish WAR season. The release scenario is like a .250 22 hr 90 rbi 1 WAR season and 25 million dollar arbitration win

 

Morales was slow as s***. It would be different if Vladdy had tons of data showing he underperformed his expected numbers but to start his career in roughly 2150 PA he was pretty much spot on with the expected numbers. And its been his last 785 PA where he's underperformed them so I feel like there is recency bias at play.

 

The new dimensions at Rogers Centre could be a factor with the higher wall in LF, I think it was last year where he was terrible at home and great on the road but could be a lot of noise in that. I wouldn't be surprised if the new RC turf is turning some ground balls into outs that normally would be hits. It looks pretty slow this year similar to 2015 when a new turf was installed.