General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Dick_Pole]

I am not in favour of trading Manoah for the suggestions made it this thread.

 

f*** these ******** projections. Or even what happened to his stuff last year. Manoah has a good risk to reward trade-off. The risk is basically nil. No downside to keeping him. Unless you think his personality is cancerous in the clubhouse. The upside is high. Who cares if the projections or whatever suggest his return to form is a longshot. Still exists. Laika is 100% dead wrong to laugh him off as a Rich Hill comparable. Rich Hill has been a FA jobber hopping from one team to the next for years. Manoah is an ex-first rounder who was hyped by the team and initially lived up to the hype. They may "project" the same but they don't have the same value to a team owned by a mega-corporation that feels entitled to an entire country's fan base. This isn't the Rays. Sometimes you need to move away from the computer numbers and weigh in external factors.

 

Flip side if you trade him, the upside is whatever jobber you get, as discussed here. Very limited upside. Downside is Manoah is an all-star pitching in SD and Atkins can be dunked on all season like with Moreno. Team looks awful as they ruined him, let him go for cheap then SD of all places fixed him up. You know a guy like Manoah wouldn't shut up about it either. Atkins' only upside to trading Manoah is if he strikes out so hard that people at least stop talking about the Varsho trade. Better to keep him for better or for worse. If he sucks, he's buried at no real cost to the team until DFA years later when you're absolutely sure there is no hope. If he's good, then everyone involved takes their share of the victory lap in overcoming adversity or whatever.

[glory]

Yeah, Manoah makes the league minimum for one more year and the Jays need SP depth. I personally don't think he's going to bounce back, but there's still a chance he does, and the risk involved is so minimal ($750k or whatever) that the return would have to at least be a controllable piece(s). Kim is not Soto. The question is whether Manoah and the FO's relationship is strained enough that they just want to cut bait to avoid the headache in the event that he has to start the year in AAA. At this rate if they aren't getting a controllable piece that fills a position of need in return for him, then just keep him and hope he either bounces back or gracefully accepts a AAA stint.

[Governator]

I am not in favour of trading Manoah for the suggestions made it this thread.

 

f*** these ******** projections. Or even what happened to his stuff last year. Manoah has a good risk to reward trade-off. The risk is basically nil. No downside to keeping him. Unless you think his personality is cancerous in the clubhouse. The upside is high. Who cares if the projections or whatever suggest his return to form is a longshot. Still exists. Laika is 100% dead wrong to laugh him off as a Rich Hill comparable. Rich Hill has been a FA jobber hopping from one team to the next for years. Manoah is an ex-first rounder who was hyped by the team and initially lived up to the hype. They may "project" the same but they don't have the same value to a team owned by a mega-corporation that feels entitled to an entire country's fan base. This isn't the Rays. Sometimes you need to move away from the computer numbers and weigh in external factors.

 

Flip side if you trade him, the upside is whatever jobber you get, as discussed here. Very limited upside. Downside is Manoah is an all-star pitching in SD and Atkins can be dunked on all season like with Moreno. Team looks awful as they ruined him, let him go for cheap then SD of all places fixed him up. You know a guy like Manoah wouldn't shut up about it either. Atkins' only upside to trading Manoah is if he strikes out so hard that people at least stop talking about the Varsho trade. Better to keep him for better or for worse. If he sucks, he's buried at no real cost to the team until DFA years later when you're absolutely sure there is no hope. If he's good, then everyone involved takes their share of the victory lap in overcoming adversity or whatever.

 

100% this imo.

[Dick_Pole]

Fangraphs and projection sites are the Yahoo Finance of the nerd baseball world. Literally anyone can go to Yahoo Finance look up some numbers for a few minutes and come to a conclusion to buy or sell a stock with justification and try to look smart while doing it. Meanwhile actual smart people come up with numbers that can't be found on Yahoo Finance or reasons beyond ones that any literate stock bro can come up with to buy or sell a stock. They are the ones who make the best money not the bandwagon jumpers after the fact.

 

Manoah's projections mean f*** all. He's a volatile asset. His range of possibilities is too wide to fairly analyze. He is the Spirit Airlines or iRobot of baseball pitchers right now. Might as well keep him than dump near the lows. Tax loss selling occurs in December not January for a good reason.

[Laika]

Ha-Seong Kim is coming off back to back 5+ bWAR seasons, 4 fWAR seasons, and fills an immediate need on the infield.

 

That's not some wild dump of Manoah for a jobber with no upside.

 

Toronto probably has, at this point, some offseason insight into what Manoah is doing and how his still is looking or developing in the lab so they have more information than us to inform a trade, anyway. If his s*** looks to be recovering, then keep him. If it looks as flat as 2023, then there isn't much reasonable hope of upside is there?

 

Sometimes the right move is to dump a loser. A s*** stock that has lost 80% of its value can always lose another 80% of its value.

[Terminator]

Everyone acting like Kim is no big deal. If we traded for him he might be our best player. Would certainly be in the Top 3.

 

Manoah might be our worst player.

[Jays24]

Fangraphs and projection sites are the Yahoo Finance of the nerd baseball world. Literally anyone can go to Yahoo Finance look up some numbers for a few minutes and come to a conclusion to buy or sell a stock with justification and try to look smart while doing it. Meanwhile actual smart people come up with numbers that can't be found on Yahoo Finance or reasons beyond ones that any literate stock bro can come up with to buy or sell a stock. They are the ones who make the best money not the bandwagon jumpers after the fact.

 

Manoah's projections mean f*** all. He's a volatile asset. His range of possibilities is too wide to fairly analyze. He is the Spirit Airlines or iRobot of baseball pitchers right now. Might as well keep him than dump near the lows. Tax loss selling occurs in December not January for a good reason.

 

You are literally blasting most of the regulars who post on this board with this LOL. I do think most of them are very smart posters but my God do they love just spitting out these projections like they are a 100% certainty to happen with no wiggle room to other opinions.

[L54]

HS Kim is controlled for one season. He is a slap hitting middle infielder whose value comes from the field. He’s a better version of IKF who they just committed two years to

 

If this magical pitching lab has any credibility it will be able to turn Chubby into at least someone who can not embarrass himself in a big league rotation

 

I think it’s extremely short sighted to make that move. Then people want Cronenworth too?! I’d rather just roll with the status quo than get abused by the Padres

[Laika]

HS Kim is controlled for one season. He is a slap hitting middle infielder whose value comes from the field. He’s a better version of IKF who they just committed two years to

 

If this magical pitching lab has any credibility it will be able to turn Chubby into at least someone who can not embarrass himself in a big league rotation

 

I think it’s extremely short sighted to make that move. Then people want Cronenworth too?! I’d rather just roll with the status quo than get abused by the Padres

 

League average power, plus speed, plus defense

 

I wouldn't normally advocate trading someone with "four years of control" for a rental but having seen Manoah pitch last year and having assessed his attitude and girth and the way his general stupid face looks, I have made this choice

[Laika]

You are literally blasting most of the regulars who post on this board with this LOL. I do think most of them are very smart posters but my God do they love just spitting out these projections like they are a 100% certainty to happen with no wiggle room to other opinions.

 

No, we spit them out as projections because they are projections

 

Reasonable disagreements with projections are allowed, depending on the logic

[L54]

League average power, plus speed, plus defense

 

I wouldn't normally advocate trading someone with "four years of control" for a rental but having seen Manoah pitch last year and having assessed his attitude and girth and the way his general stupid face looks, I have made this choice

 

I would trade Manoah too, but not for this player

 

xSLG .360 13th percentile

Average exit velo 7th percentile

Barrel % 11th percentile

Hard hit % 3rd percentile

 

xwoba and xBA aren’t very nice either

 

Kim would have been great in the 2015 Jays lineup, not the 2024 edition (wow approaching 10 years ago since the glory days)

[Terminator]

I would trade Manoah too, but not for this player

 

xSLG .360 13th percentile

Average exit velo 7th percentile

Barrel % 11th percentile

Hard hit % 3rd percentile

 

xwoba and xBA aren’t very nice either

 

Kim would have been great in the 2015 Jays lineup, not the 2024 edition (wow approaching 10 years ago since the glory days)

 

Good thing he pulls dat ball

[Terminator]

FYI all the people who want to keep Manoah have perfectly reasonable takes IMO. I totally get the arguments for keeping him.

 

It's a sell-low situation which is almost never good (though his trade value could still bottom out just yet). We need pitching depth. He's got 4 years of control left. He's obviously a volatile asset so throw the projections out. How good will the return even be? Etc. That all makes sense to me.

 

As others have said, the Jays probably have more inside info on his situation and if he can be fixed too. Tough call to make as a fan because we are flying blind with his weird situation.

[wilko]

FYI all the people who want to keep Manoah have perfectly reasonable takes IMO. I totally get the arguments for keeping him.

 

It's a sell-low situation which is almost never good (though his trade value could still bottom out just yet). We need pitching depth. He's got 4 years of control left. He's obviously a volatile asset so throw the projections out. How good will the return even be? Etc. That all makes sense to me.

 

As others have said, the Jays probably have more inside info on his situation and if he can be fixed too. Tough call to make as a fan because we are flying blind with his weird situation.

 

I just hope he doesn't become a distraction to the team. If he comes back in somewhat decent shape and actually provides quality innings, I'd be glad to keep him on around.

[Spanky99]

FYI all the people who want to keep Manoah have perfectly reasonable takes IMO. I totally get the arguments for keeping him.

 

It's a sell-low situation which is almost never good (though his trade value could still bottom out just yet). We need pitching depth. He's got 4 years of control left. He's obviously a volatile asset so throw the projections out. How good will the return even be? Etc. That all makes sense to me.

 

As others have said, the Jays probably have more inside info on his situation and if he can be fixed too. Tough call to make as a fan because we are flying blind with his weird situation.

 

Not to mention this is all hypothetical.

[Jimcanuck]

This time last year there was a push to trade Berrios for something. Manoah was worse but offset by the control.

 

In the end I think Manoah gets traded for the best deal available (kinda like the Moreno trade last year) because the FO / Manoah relationship is toxic.

Edited January 19, 2024 by Jimcanuck

[L54]

This year last time there was a push to trade Berrios for something. Manoah was worse but offset by the control.

 

In the end I think Manoah gets traded for the best deal available (kinda like the Moreno trade last year) because the FO / Manoah relationship is toxic.

 

I think this is a real possibility. They’ll ship him for whatever if the relationship is truly strained

[Spanky99]

I think this is a real possibility. They’ll ship him for whatever if the relationship is truly strained

 

Like Kim...

[L54]

Like Kim...

 

Maybe! Should try and acquire Josh Rojas too

[Spanky99]

Maybe! Should try and acquire Josh Rojas too

 

lol

[Terminator]

Maybe! Should try and acquire Josh Rojas too

 

Mariners would decline

[wamco]

Like Kim...

 

Just don’t include espinal and Garcia , thereby freeing up 9m dollars to spend elsewhere because that would make the deal horrible for the jays.

[wamco]

If manoah has a bad season again, I wonder what his 3 Arby seasons ( cue the Arby fseasoned fries joke) look to be.

 

For the record, I’m a big Manoah fan and hope he can at least rebound to a back end starter. If pitches come back but fatigue still is an issue, we’d have to use him as a 5 and dive sp

[Spanky99]

Just don’t include espinal and Garcia , thereby freeing up 9m dollars to spend elsewhere because that would make the deal horrible for the jays.

 

So throw assets away, smartass?

[Jimcanuck]

If manoah has a bad season again, I wonder what his 3 Arby seasons ( cue the Arby fseasoned fries joke) look to be.

 

For the record, I’m a big Manoah fan and hope he can at least rebound to a back end starter. If pitches come back but fatigue still is an issue, we’d have to use him as a 5 and dive sp

 

Or a reliever. Except he would throw a hissy fit, the big baby

[glory]

This time last year there was a push to trade Berrios for something. Manoah was worse but offset by the control.

 

In the end I think Manoah gets traded for the best deal available (kinda like the Moreno trade last year) because the FO / Manoah relationship is toxic.

 

Yeah I think that’s a possibility once the FA SP market starts to dwindle down and teams looking for pitching are open to trades. I just think there needs to be more control on the player(s) coming back, even if that player is not established yet. The Jays don’t have expendable SP depth. This type of trade would be done entirely because of the fractured relationship, so make sure the trade makes sense short and long term. A young controllable 3B prospect who hasn’t established himself yet but has some upside combined with a #6 starter with options would be a perfectly reasonable trade return. Again that’s only if they feel the relationship is too fractured to continue. If it’s not, then holding on to Manoah and seeing if he’s fixable is probably the better move.

[wamco]

So throw assets away, smartass?

 

So if Garcia contract was a team option at 6.3m rather than a vesting one, you would have picked it up ? And you think Atkins would have as well?

 

I don’t think that would have been the play ( unless you felt you could trade him)

 

Espinal would totally be trade bait if Kim was obtained , no?

 

I’d love 9m at the deadline to fill holes rather than Garcia and espinal, that’s not throwing away assets. I’d barely even describe the as assets.

9m gets you about a 20 year salaried player on expiring contract. That’s a good bat or sp.

[Spanky99]

So if Garcia contract was a team option at 6.3m rather than a vesting one, you would have picked it up ? And you think Atkins would have as well?

 

I don’t think that would have been the play ( unless you felt you could trade him)

 

Espinal would totally be trade bait if Kim was obtained , no?

 

I’d love 9m at the deadline to fill holes rather than Garcia and espinal, that’s not throwing away assets. I’d barely even describe the as assets.

9m gets you about a 20 year salaried player on expiring contract. That’s a good bat or sp.

 

What are you talking about, man? If my aunt had a dick would she be my uncle...

[Carlos Danger]

What are you talking about, man? If my aunt had a dick would she be my uncle...

 

Not in 2024

[deanmike]

Manoah, Espinal and Otto Lopez for Kim, Eguy Rosario and Alek Jacob. Gain of 5.1 BTV surplus value for the Jays so within the "possibly acceptable for Atkins" range.