General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

At the end of the day, the Atkins bootlickers and fanboys should be very worried. I'm a bellwether. I was one of the first people to call out his nerdy beta behaviour back in the Stroman days but I've also staunchly defended him on issues like the Morales signing and Donaldson trade. I've defended him as recently as the Ohtani situation, where there was a meltdown of people thinking he was used as a sucker and instead should have been throwing the kitchen sink at Soto.

 

The changing narrative from "big moves this offseason" to "IKF's getting 600 PA this year lulz" is what has turned me into a decided voter. This is the equivalent of the Republicans losing Florida. It's only downhill for him from here. It'll take a miracle to change things.

 

I compare Atkins and Shapiro to Ujiri and Webster. Granted, the Raptors have a championship to their name but the Raptors brass are almost universally beloved by fans despite there not being a massive difference between the two front offices. What sets the Raptors guys apart is that they did two extremely ballsy moves that panned out and changed the course of the franchise. First, trading for Leonard, and second, drafting Barnes above his projected slot position. The first resulting in a championship and the second extending the life of a franchise that was destined to be a basement dweller for a while. Still waiting on Atkins to make his ballsy move.

 

Yeah love him or hate him this is a pretty big season for Ross. Team needs to either win the division or win some playoff games.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Is there a way to adjust the games played for a steamer projection?

 

As we all know I correctly called the Ernie Clement breakout last year. Steamer now projects him for a 93 wRC+ which will play for a UT guy that can handle 3B, SS and 2B.

 

They also project him for 0.1 WAR in 5 games. If you extrapolate that out to 150 games that would be 3 WAR. But because 5 games is so low any sort of rounding that is being done gets magnified big time. For example, if he's actually worth .06 WAR per 5 games that's 1.8 WAR per 150 games.

 

Either way, seems like Steamer likes him but it's hard to tell how much.

 

 

Under the projections tab click on Steamer600, which are the projections for every player prorated for 600 plate appearances. Ernie is projected for 1.6 WAR over 600 PA.

[deanmike]

A Polanco trade might make more sense than Turner depending on the Twins asking price because Polanco's 10.5M salary for 2024 is considerably less than the 13.4M player option Turner turned down for 2024, when also factoring in Joc probably makes between 10-12M if he signs here.

 

Joc and Turner would cut it pretty close and leave almost nothing to add pitching depth considering the team only has a projected 27M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold which the team will likely stay under in 2024 as a repeat tax team. A Polanco trade probably also means you can easily punt Espinal and his 2.5M arb projection (maybe he's even part of a Polanco trade) and carry either Clement or Otto Lopez who both have no options remaining as the designated 13th cheap position player who barely plays, since Polanco is a full time fielder unlike Turner who would need a large chunk of DH starts.

[Frenchsoup]

Is this Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro's best product they can put on the field? With a pretty big Payroll they should be able to compete with the Dodgers and Braves but clearly aren't nearly as aggressive and smart to attack the guys you would love on the roster. I wanted Jung Ho lee for 200 million so bad. They wanted a great DH for 700 mill....makes no sense..... Ok you like KK for 10.5mill...that's fine... You like IKF thats great, amazing signing, but u still have gigantic holes as far as team balance,playstyle, genuine joy on the field. This honestly seems like the end of Ross he has so many assets in the org to move for great stuff and he sits like a plug in the abyss....Go Jays Votto, JD, Winker, Belt, Kolten Wong Massive Trades of Bo and Vlad. So much potential with a lot of dead dumb front offices that have no money to spend.

[glory]

There is definitely a greatly increased possibility that this is a window team but this if far from determined. To avoid this a lot of things will need to go right in the next few years though. Manoah, Kirk and Vlad will all need to show that 2023 were speed bump years for them and not a regular occurrence. A few of the minor league players from the pool of Tiedemann, Orelvis, Barger and Roden will need to morph into above average regulars at cost controlled league minimum salary levels, and they will possibly need to add an impact player in next year's offseason to offset the impending free agency of Vlad and/or Bo should neither of them be retained. There is a ton of money coming off of the books in the next 3 seasons and Rogers has given the club the possibility of spending to luxury tax levels to purchase free agent reinforcements as needed so there is ample opportunity to add more talent as needed from free agency to supplement the team.

 

The only real way to avoid being a "window" team is to have players develop through the system that are average to above average regulars (preferably better than that) so the team doesn't have to continue to pour money into filling big league holes. Short term vets in the absence of prospects is fine but there needs to be an org wide priority to develop talent from the minors to actually use at the big league level, and not just as trade capital. It was easy to do that in 2018-2020 because there were no expectations, but obviously as a team is deeper into their competitive window it gets harder to trust prospects vs big league vets. The Jays have to show they trust their development process to develop talent internally, otherwise it will be a short window followed by a 2017-18 redux (where they want to compete but aren't anywhere near good enough) after 2025.

 

I have no idea what to expect from Schneider, Roden, Barger, Martinez, Jimenez, Horowitz, and Palmegiani long term. Either way, those guys are either already in the bigs (Schneider) or figure to play a chunk of 2024 in AAA, so they are the closest to contributing to the big league roster. The Jays need to figure out how to turn some of those position player prospects into big league contributors. Schneider may or may not be a 2-3 WAR player moving forward, but they have to give him a real shot. My concern as I mentioned earlier is that I'm not sure the Jays have shown a willingness to do that, and there's also the possibility that those prospects aren't good enough to be given a real shot. We have to hope a few of them are.

 

The sad thing is, Vlad/Bo are both flawed enough to where the Jays could lose both and still contend if they were a better development team. But losing both of them and not having a strong development pipeline is going to make it a lot more difficult.

[Stangstag]

A Polanco trade might make more sense than Turner depending on the Twins asking price because Polanco's 10.5M salary for 2024 is considerably less than the 13.4M player option Turner turned down for 2024, when also factoring in Joc probably makes between 10-12M if he signs here.

 

Joc and Turner would cut it pretty close and leave almost nothing to add pitching depth considering the team only has a projected 27M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold which the team will likely stay under in 2024 as a repeat tax team. A Polanco trade probably also means you can easily punt Espinal and his 2.5M arb projection (maybe he's even part of a Polanco trade) and carry either Clement or Otto Lopez who both have no options remaining as the designated 13th cheap position player who barely plays, since Polanco is a full time fielder unlike Turner who would need a large chunk of DH starts.

 

Joc + Polanco + pitching depth and i’d be pretty happy

[Terminator]

Under the projections tab click on Steamer600, which are the projections for every player prorated for 600 plate appearances. Ernie is projected for 1.6 WAR over 600 PA.

 

Ah yeah I forgot about that. Thank you!

 

EDIT: Kirk projects to be our best position player next year.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Terminator

[Laika]

BNS says he thinks the team views Davis Schneider as someone they can use in LF this season. If true, this instantly causes a massive change in what the remaining needs of the team are. They would no longer "need" to add a Grichuk/Duvall type to play LF against LHP starters.

 

He also thinks that outside of a Joc type DH/OF addition they will probably also add another option to cover at least some 3B innings (mentioned possibilities like Turner or a Polanco trade).

 

Lineup vs RHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider/Biggio

3B Biggio/Turner/IKF

SS Bichette

LF Varsho/Joc

CF Kiermaier/Varsho

RF Springer

DH Joc/Turner

 

Lineup vs LHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Turner/Vlad

2B Espinal

3B IKF

SS Bichette

LF Schneider

CF Varsho

RF Springer

DH Vlad/Turner

 

Then whatever is left of the 27M after completing position player adds could probably be used on adding pitching depth.

 

I don't think this really solves anything

 

Schneider is the presumptive 2B. If he is now the presumptive LF, that just makes 2B look like s***.

[Vdubfan]

A Polanco trade might make more sense than Turner depending on the Twins asking price because Polanco's 10.5M salary for 2024 is considerably less than the 13.4M player option Turner turned down for 2024, when also factoring in Joc probably makes between 10-12M if he signs here.

 

Joc and Turner would cut it pretty close and leave almost nothing to add pitching depth considering the team only has a projected 27M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold which the team will likely stay under in 2024 as a repeat tax team. A Polanco trade probably also means you can easily punt Espinal and his 2.5M arb projection (maybe he's even part of a Polanco trade) and carry either Clement or Otto Lopez who both have no options remaining as the designated 13th cheap position player who barely plays, since Polanco is a full time fielder unlike Turner who would need a large chunk of DH starts.

 

Turner turned down $13.4M in favour of a $6.7M buy out, so he simply say his market as > $6.7M. Not that he won't end up signing for more than $13.4M, but just wanted to point out his camp did not necessarily think his FA appeal would be > $13.4M when they chose to turn down the option.

[deanmike]

I don't think this really solves anything

 

Schneider is the presumptive 2B. If he is now the presumptive LF, that just makes 2B look like s***.

 

BNS didn't say presumptive LF. He said he's seen as a guy who can cover some LF innings (pretty much only in lineups vs LHP the way this team is constructed at the moment).

[Laika]

Don't think I am much into Polanco. Seems like a bit of an injury prone butcher, hasn't touched 2 WAR since 2021. I kinda think you can get there by just rolling with some bum like Ernie Clement and a platoon partner.

[deanmike]

Turner turned down $13.4M in favour of a $6.7M buy out, so he simply say his market as > $6.7M. Not that he won't end up signing for more than $13.4M, but just wanted to point out his camp did not necessarily think his FA appeal would be > $13.4M when they chose to turn down the option.

 

Forgot about the buyout aspect, thanks for clarifying.

[BigCecil]

But did you ever have to deal with a Gen Z fatass who was a Cy Young runner up and thinks he's top s***? Averting nuclear war is child's play to that! Give the man a break!

 

One caveat thats important is how ownership vs fans measure performance is two different things. The two usually eventually correlate, which is why Execs get rope.

 

As for - all we can do is pray for projections to be accurate this year - thats lame fantasy league s***. The GM, ownership and CEO can go make deal(s) and live with those consequences if they don't like the bet on steamer. Or they can roll with the projections. Ultimately they are accountable either way being in charge since 2016 ish. The position we are in, regardless of how you view it, they put us in it.

Edited January 4, 2024 by BigCecil

[deanmike]

Don't think I am much into Polanco. Seems like a bit of an injury prone butcher, hasn't touched 2 WAR since 2021. I kinda think you can get there by just rolling with some bum like Ernie Clement and a platoon partner.

 

But almighty Steamer projects him at 2.4 fWAR in 600 PA. Meanwhile Turner's Steamer600 projection for 2024 is worse than Spencer Horwitz's. One could argue based on this that signing Turner just to cover some extra 3B innings is a wasteful use of a portion of the remaining budget.

 

Also I heavily doubt the Jays see Clement as a 3B option. I would imagine if they did he would have seen some usage there last season but they basically never used him there.

[Laika]

But almighty Steamer projects him at 2.4 fWAR in 600 PA. Meanwhile Turner's Steamer600 projection for 2024 is worse than Spencer Horwitz's. One could argue based on this that signing Turner just to cover some extra 3B innings is a wasteful use of a portion of the remaining budget.

 

Also I heavily doubt the Jays see Clement as a 3B option. I would imagine if they did he would have seen some usage there last season but they basically never used him there.

 

Yeah but it has Espinal as 1.9 WAR. So between Espinal, Clement, and all the other depth infield options like Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, Leo Jimenez...

 

I guess the point is that if there is only ONE big signing/acquisition left, personally I am spending the budget on the best bat which probably means a DH like JDM or Joc

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'd love for the Jays to trade for significant upgrades at 2B, 3B or OF, but there is some merit to wait and see what happens with the rather sizable group depth players/prospects they've accumulated, especially now that they have KK and IKF in the fold.

 

Biggio, Espinal, Schneider, Clement, Barger, Orelvis, Lantigua, Lopez, Palmegiani, Horwitz, Morris and Jiminez. That's quite an extensive list to draw from. They may all end up being crap, but worth look, and if any of them pop IKF/KK won't be blocking them but will still serve as solid bench players and late inning defensive replacements.

 

I would still love to see a big powerful DH bat signed though.

[L54]

I personally think that list looks like a bunch of second baseman for the Oakland A’s

[Laika]

I personally think that list looks like a bunch of second baseman for the Oakland A’s

 

I love Jack Gelof

[Eat My Shatkins]

I personally think that list looks like a bunch of second baseman for the Oakland A’s

 

Yeah and if I told you this time last year that Schneider was going to come up mid season and put up 2.0 fWAR in 141 PA's you'd have probably told me I was a goddamn lunatic.

 

Might be a huge pile of crap, might find something decent, or might just get a flash in the pan strong enough to tide the team over for a season which is probably better than doing something desperate like giving Chapman $150 million.

[L54]

I love Jack Gelof

 

I’m thinking more like Tony Kemp

[L54]

Yeah and if I told you this time last year that Schneider was going to come up mid season and put up 2.0 fWAR in 141 PA's you'd have probably told me I was a goddamn lunatic.

 

Might be a huge pile of crap, might find something decent, or might just get a flash in the pan strong enough to tide the team over for a season which is probably better than doing something desperate like giving Chapman $150 million.

 

I think most of us all agree with that, just saying it’s not going to inspire a huge amount of confidence

 

Honesty is the best policy

 

Team will have to tread water until the summer and hope to buy a couple nice shiny pieces which is possible

[L54]

I think I’m now mentally prepared to embrace the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays as a team of third liners who block shots and get pucks in deep

[Laika]

The scrappiest team in history with a top 5 payroll

[L54]

The scrappiest team in history with a top 5 payroll

 

Hahaha true

 

The underdogs except we actually almost outspent everybody

[deanmike]

Yeah but it has Espinal as 1.9 WAR. So between Espinal, Clement, and all the other depth infield options like Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, Leo Jimenez...

 

I guess the point is that if there is only ONE big signing/acquisition left, personally I am spending the budget on the best bat which probably means a DH like JDM or Joc

 

I don't think Joc at 10-12M counts as a big signing/acquisition. Also even if you wanted to take what Atkins said completely at face value (which is pointless because he's obviously just posturing to maintain negotiation leverage), Atkins didn't even straight up say 1 add remaining, he said "closer to 1 than 3."

 

Probably ends up being 2 position player adds. Joc at 10-12M considering there's projected 27M left for the team to spend almost guarantees that. The 2nd add will be another 3B option to take Espinal's spot as the 3rd guy in the 3-man platoon with IKF and Biggio.

 

At this point I would probably prefer an Urshela signing (I saw somewhere projected 10M AAV for 1-2 years) over the other two 3B possibilities (Turner signing/Polanco trade). Although I've barely seen anything linking Urshela to the Jays other than 1 MLBTR article.

[Terminator]

I personally think that list looks like a bunch of second baseman for the Oakland A’s

 

Yeah not a ton of upside with that group but it isn't completely worthless. If they all hit their 50th percentile you are talking 2 WAR starters, fringe starters and capable backups. If Orelvis or Schneider hit their 60-70th percentile you are looking at a 3 WAR guy.

 

I wish we could trade some of them. The Braves have zero bench. I wonder if we could trade Espinal for a depth starter like Alan Winans.

[AdamGreenwood]

I wasn't feeling great about 2024, especially after we missed on Soto and Ohtani.

BUT THEN, we spent $15 million on Kiner-Falefa. Now, I'm super-excited about our chances. Fans are super hyped about this signing. Totally makes up for our other misses.

[Laika]

I don't think Joc at 10-12M counts as a big signing/acquisition. Also even if you wanted to take what Atkins said completely at face value (which is pointless because he's obviously just posturing to maintain negotiation leverage), Atkins didn't even straight up say 1 add remaining, he said "closer to 1 than 3."

 

Probably ends up being 2 position player adds. Joc at 10-12M considering there's projected 27M left for the team to spend almost guarantees that. The 2nd add will be another 3B option to take Espinal's spot as the 3rd guy in the 3-man platoon with IKF and Biggio.

 

At this point I would probably prefer an Urshela signing (I saw somewhere projected 10M AAV for 1-2 years) over the other two 3B possibilities (Turner signing/Polanco trade).

 

I agree, and hope they do bring in two more bats. Someone with actual, bankable offense and then a 3B option who can hit a bit.

 

Just don't really know who that 3B is though...

 

Urshela could be completely cooked. Longoria and Donaldson probably are cooked. Brian Anderson was useless last year. Turner probably can't even play 3B unless it's an emergency.

 

.... Donovan Solano? Don't see how he is any better than the incumbent depth options.

 

With the FA options so horrendous, if Jorge Polanco is actually on the trade block then I think some team is going to end up paying real prospect capital to Minnesota for the right to pay him $10M in 2024. Seems desperate. Maybe Toronto is desperate. That trade would honestly probably be hard to stomach. Like, Addison Barger for Jorge Polanco.

 

Sticking with the Twins and their ostensible infield depth, Kyle Farmer and Jose Miranda might be closer to "free".

[L54]

Yeah not a ton of upside with that group but it isn't completely worthless. If they all hit their 50th percentile you are talking 2 WAR starters, fringe starters and capable backups. If Orelvis or Schneider hit their 60-70th percentile you are looking at a 3 WAR guy.

 

I wish we could trade some of them. The Braves have zero bench. I wonder if we could trade Espinal for a depth starter like Alan Winans.

 

Yes! Ideally you could buy some old crusty vet who has like two years remaining for some of those guys. They all just seem redundant

[Terminator]

I agree, and hope they do bring in two more bats. Someone with actual, bankable offense and then a 3B option who can hit a bit.

 

Just don't really know who that 3B is though...

 

Urshela could be completely cooked. Longoria and Donaldson probably are cooked. Brian Anderson was useless last year. Turner probably can't even play 3B unless it's an emergency.

 

.... Donovan Solano? Don't see how he is any better than the incumbent depth options.

 

With the FA options so horrendous, if Jorge Polanco is actually on the trade block then I think some team is going to end up paying real prospect capital to Minnesota for the right to pay him $10M in 2024. Seems desperate. Maybe Toronto is desperate. That trade would honestly probably be hard to stomach. Like, Addison Barger for Jorge Polanco.

 

Sticking with the Twins and their ostensible infield depth, Kyle Farmer and Jose Miranda might be closer to "free".

 

Donaldson has 80 games of 15 homers and league average defense in him before both of calves explode. Can platoon at DH with Joc too.

 

-Joc for 1 year 14 mil.

-Donaldson for 1 year 5 mil.

-Trade Espinal and change to the Braves for Alan Winans. Could perhaps expand this by giving them another bench player (they literally have zero) and taking back a young prospect.

 

Getting swept in the Wild Card round will be easy to make.