Jays 2023 Pen - Good or Good Enough?

[BigCecil]

Hoping for some non Homer FO fanboy and non Armageddon takes here. We are 6-4 even though its been pretty rough on the pitching front so far.

 

Some of the smart guys OTB weigh in please (Assuming Green doesn't come back or if he does he isn't the Green of '22. Assuming Ryu gives us nothing)

 

How do we stack up vis a vis other contenders based on key metrics? Do we need to add? I still feel like we need a couple of arms but maybe I'm just shell shocked from Brand Hand and Chatwood 21 - 22 ups and downs and what we have seen so far in '23.

[Stangstag]

Pen is good enough.

 

Brad Hand pitched for a world series team last year…

[The_DH]

I would say as constructed it's going to burn out. Because we have starters that can barely go 4-5 innings, we need some 2-3 inning pitchers. Probably 2 of them. The higher leverage guys should be more than fine, if used properly.

[L54]

I said I think they make a significant pen move at the deadline if they are in it. Add Green to the mix and that’s legit

 

I’d bring Pearson up and see if he can give us some length. See if he can cover a couple innings, use him as an opener for all I care.

 

Need our starters to be better so that they aren’t taxing the pen.

 

It’s not good enough as of today but it will improve as the season goes on.

[John_Havok]

Hoping for some non Homer FO fanboy and non Armageddon takes here. We are 6-4 even though its been pretty rough on the pitching front so far.

 

Some of the smart guys OTB weigh in please (Assuming Green doesn't come back or if he does he isn't the Green of '22. Assuming Ryu gives us nothing)

 

How do we stack up vis a vis other contenders based on key metrics? Do we need to add? I still feel like we need a couple of arms but maybe I'm just shell shocked from Brand Hand and Chatwood 21 - 22 ups and downs and what we have seen so far in '23.

 

It's easy to just point and say the pen isnt good enough, but as with most things, context is important. I'll just post the entire pitching staff's #'s so far.

 

 

That's over 36 innings in 10 games for the pen, which isn't ideal. 6 innings alone for Cimber, and 5 guys with 5 or more. Keeping that up over a full season would be less than ideal, but when yove had 5 of the 10 game where your starter gets wrecked (Kikuchi x 1, Manoah x 1, Berrios x2 and Bassit x 1) the pen is going to take some lumps.

[Grant77]

We were 16th in reliever WAR last year and we're also 16th this year with mostly the same personnel. It's a clearly average 'pen putting up average results.

 

Whether one thinks that is good enough is a matter of opinion. I think the impact of relief pitching has been somewhat overstated in recent years.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's an average pen, but the eventual additions of Pearson and Green could make it above average.

[Laika]

Feels good to me

 

Five guys throwing well plus Cimber who should be fine

 

Bass and Richards are sliding out of the circle of trust though

[Governator]

Average isn't good enough in the AL East

[bones10]

Pearson and green being something probably puts it comfortably above average.

[Stangstag]

Feels good to me

 

Five guys throwing well plus Cimber who should be fine

 

Bass and Richards are sliding out of the circle of trust though

 

IDK how we managed to win with Richards pitching to Trout in the bottom of the 10th with bases loaded

[Jonn]

I believe were still 2 relievers away. One of them needs to be a legit swing and miss late inning option. You hope Chad Green can return healthy hes very much unknown on how effective he would be even if he did comeback. Jay Jackson, Nate Pearson, Yosver Zulueta, and ofcourse Ricky T are all guys could impact this bullpen in the minors. Although hoping the ladder 2 potentially impact the Rotation.

[Krylian]

I've had problems with this pen for years. I will say that it's better this year. If Chad Green comes back healthy it will be a massive boost.

 

... However, I'd be lying if I said I had confidence in this group getting it done consistently enough. Maybe that's PTSD from previous years, but I just don't see the Ks in this pen, throughout, that I'd like to see.

[jaysblue]

Its a decent pen with solid depth though it's still not an elite pen in my opinion.

 

My concern so far is a lot of pen arms being overworked in the early going. They won't be able to keep up this pace in the dog days of summer and fall. It's important this team gets some length from their starters, which have been really awful thus far, outside of Gausman. When guys are going good, we need Gausman and Manoah hopefully pitching into the 7th inning on a consistent basis.

 

I'm not concerned with Romano as a stopper. Just hopefully he's kept fresh during the season because you'll have to rely heavy on him in the Postseason.

 

If Green comes back and pitches close to his previous form and if they add Pearson to this BP mix, I think that could make a big difference.

 

Otherwise, this BP still misses some guys with swing and miss stuff. I'm not completely confident in them having a lockdown 7th or 8th inning guy. I don't consider Garcia or Mayza those kind of guys despite them being solid to start the season. Swanson in the same boat.

 

Bass, Cimber, Pop IMO are just middle relievers. I don't want them pitching in a close 1-run game with runners on base in the 7th or 8th inning.

 

The bullpen is likely good enough to get through the season if they aren't overworked, though come Postseason time I'm not sure it's good enough especially when starters are on shorter leashes in the Postseason. I think internally, they can improve if Green comes back and if Pearson steps up in a big way. Otherwise, I think they might need to add another elite reliever at the trade deadline.

[BigCecil]

Pen is good enough.

 

Brad Hand pitched for a world series team last year…

 

True but Hand was the definition of "an arm" for the PHI in 2022. Like a Thornton. His BB and K rates were 4.6 and 7.6 with a 4 FIP. In '21 we picked him up and used him in leverage.

[BigCecil]

I said I think they make a significant pen move at the deadline if they are in it. Add Green to the mix and that’s legit

 

I’d bring Pearson up and see if he can give us some length. See if he can cover a couple innings, use him as an opener for all I care.

 

Need our starters to be better so that they aren’t taxing the pen.

 

It’s not good enough as of today but it will improve as the season goes on.

 

Agree with this take. I think its a bit light now. Yimi, Swanson (we hope) and Romano are your only real "no-brainers" with reliable stuff +. Those 3 will get touched up occasionally, but so does Josh Hader. Richards has a + change and Bass with the SL but just not consistent enough, at least now.

 

The variable of Green matters for the stretch and playoffs.

 

The variable of Ryu matters as a spot SP and long man if he has anything left. I don't see him, now anyway, as a playoff roster option.

[Spanky99]

It's kind of way to early for this, but the RP's are far better than day 1 in '22. Nothing spectacular, but things can change by the AS break, I'm fine with them for now.

[wilko]

[G-Snarls]

IDK how we managed to win with Richards pitching to Trout in the bottom of the 10th with bases loaded

 

Yeah

 

Replay that 10 times and you certainly don't win most of the time

[BigCecil]

It's kind of way to early for this, but the RP's are far better than day 1 in '22. Nothing spectacular, but things can change by the AS break, I'm fine with them for now.

 

In terms of adding it is too early. Agreed. We have what we have for now unless a Pearson or a Zulueta can add. Just curious how people feel about how we stack up vs our AL East and wildcard comp.

[Laika]

Agree with this take. I think its a bit light now. Yimi, Swanson (we hope) and Romano are your only real "no-brainers" with reliable stuff +. Those 3 will get touched up occasionally, but so does Josh Hader. Richards has a + change and Bass with the SL but just not consistent enough, at least now.

 

The variable of Green matters for the stretch and playoffs.

 

The variable of Ryu matters as a spot SP and long man if he has anything left. I don't see him, now anyway, as a playoff roster option.

 

Mayza looks good to me so far

I don't love him but I won't slam him anymore

[Jimcanuck]

Its comparatively weak, expecting some help from the farm and hopefully a high leverage guy from trade.

[Spanky99]

In terms of adding it is too early. Agreed. We have what we have for now unless a Pearson or a Zulueta can add. Just curious how people feel about how we stack up vs our AL East and wildcard comp.

 

Steamer projections that are FIP centric have the East as so...

 

Jays - 2.9

 

Sox - 2.9

 

Yankees - 2.5

 

Orioles - 2.5

 

Rays - 2.3

 

I did not expect to find that, lol. I like bWAR better for pitchers, I'll take a gander at that. Our depth seems to push us up in a tie for first, makes sense.

 

I can't find the Marcel projections on b-ref, I'm now agitated and gave up,

 

RA9 WAR last season totals were...

 

Rays - 7.6

Yanks - 7.3

O's - 6.6

Jays - 3.3

Sox - -2.1 (LOL)

 

We weren't close last season... WOOF!!!

 

Need Pearson and Swanson to step up big.

Edited April 10, 2023 by Spanky99

[Masterbather]

If we're talking championship caliber, no.

 

It could get us through the regular season (if their arms don't fall off because of a s***** rotation, which I think is a much more urgent need), but in the playoffs, pen needs more swing and miss. We needed it last season, and it cost us dearly. We still need it this season. A power lefty would be nice but isn't necessarily a must. I'm not convinced of Romano yet, just like I wasn't convinced of him last year. I'd feel better if he were a setup guy.

 

I think we need another couple of elite arms. I'm willing to see what Pearson has, but I don't expect him to be a solution because he simply has never done it yet over any reasonable sample. Green is a good low risk pickup but we just don't know what he'll be. Even then, he's had one year where I would say he was truly elite and other years where he was really good. I don't necessarily expect him to be the solution either. Maybe a piece but not the primary solution.

 

More quality arms with swing and miss stuff at the back end will be desperately needed. But holy crap this rotation is a REAL concern.

[G-Snarls]

Do we think Schneider is a better bullpen user than Montoyo was?

[Grant77]

Do we think Schneider is a better bullpen user than Montoyo was?

 

Gibbons was better than them both.

[bones10]

Do we think Schneider is a better bullpen user than Montoyo was?

 

Cimber vs trout on Saturday was really stupid

[Spanky99]

Cimber vs trout on Saturday was really stupid

 

So Bass?

[Omar]

Yeah, I think we throw Ryu out with the bathwater. I don't want to see him again. Chad Green is definitely the x factor. Even if we only get 75% of the Green from 21/22, he moves up in our depth chart drastically.

 

The interesting thing to note is that we will definitely see Pearson up, but can he stick? To be determined I guess. I think at some point they should give Zulueta a shot. They are stretching him out in Buffalo and if he can get his walk rate down why not bring him up as long relief? I'm not sanguine on our long relief as the bullpen currently stands.

 

Bottom line, as it stands today our pen is adequate but not good enough to push for a championship.

[G-Snarls]

Gibbons was better than them both.

 

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