Jays 2023 Pen - Good or Good Enough?

[Orgfiller]

Am I the only one that doesn't see a problem with Yimi Garcia, even in high leverage spots? His fastball velo is up, whiffs and K rate way up, walk rate unchanged. His groundball rate is even up. His xERA is 3.13 so it's not like he's getting destroyed, just seems like he's given up an unsustainable amount of homeruns. If his homerun rate regresses I still think he should be right there in the mix for high leverage spots, when he's not being overworked the fastball is reaching as high as 98-99 with movement to go with pretty good secondaries and good command.

[Laika]

Am I the only one that doesn't see a problem with Yimi Garcia, even in high leverage spots? His fastball velo is up, whiffs and K rate way up, walk rate unchanged. His groundball rate is even up. His xERA is 3.13 so it's not like he's getting destroyed, just seems like he's given up an unsustainable amount of homeruns. If his homerun rate regresses I still think he should be right there in the mix for high leverage spots, when he's not being overworked the fastball is reaching as high as 98-99 with movement to go with pretty good secondaries and good command.

 

Yeah he's a stud.

 

Haters simply do not understand baseball

[Jonn]

He appears to be much more effective in shorter stints. But the harder he tries to flow absolutely flattens out his fastball and it’s getting clobbered.

[Carlos Danger]

One if the issue with our pen is that it is very one dimensional. We have one true closer which is a single point of failure IMO.

 

Our save percentage by Team leader was almost 79% which is near the top of the league.

 

RPs with more than 5 saves on the Jays in 2022, one. The Astros, Braves, Yankees, Dodgers, of course the Rays, all had at least two RPs with 5 saves or more.

 

Multiple teams such as Phillies, the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, even the Red Sox had multiple RPs with saves, some of those teams mentioned having 4 RPS to 5 RPs with saves. Most of them at least 3 RPs with saves.

 

Swanson should help with this. But still only a plus 1. Swanson is no sure thing to fill in at closer either. He lost high leverage roles with the Mariners down the stretch last season and didn’t even appear in the two play off games vs the Jays.

 

To translate, we have all our eggs in one basket hoping that basket does not get hurt, tired, or has a bad day/stretch.

[John_Havok]

One if the issue with our pen is that it is very one dimensional. We have one true closer which is a single point of failure IMO.

 

Our save percentage by Team leader was almost 79% which is near the top of the league.

 

RPs with more than 5 saves on the Jays in 2022, one. The Astros, Braves, Yankees, Dodgers, of course the Rays, all had at least two RPs with 5 saves or more.

 

Multiple teams such as Phillies, the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, even the Red Sox had multiple RPs with saves, some of those teams mentioned having 4 RPS to 5 RPs with saves. Most of them at least 3 RPs with saves.

 

Swanson should help with this. But still only a plus 1. Swanson is no sure thing to fill in at closer either. He lost high leverage roles with the Mariners down the stretch last season and didn’t even appear in the two play off games vs the Jays.

 

To translate, we have all our eggs in one basket hoping that basket does not get hurt, tired, or has a bad day/stretch.

 

Those are great numbers but without the context, it's hard to take them seriously. Romano has been available for pretty much every "save" opportunity this season except for 1 or 2. No reason to just let someone else pitch if your "closer" is ready and available. Some of those teams may just not have a reliever that stands out, maybe they were 3 run saves and the primary closer had pitched the previous 2 games. Context is important.

[Carlos Danger]

Those are great numbers but without the context, it's hard to take them seriously. Romano has been available for pretty much every "save" opportunity this season except for 1 or 2. No reason to just let someone else pitch if your "closer" is ready and available. Some of those teams may just not have a reliever that stands out, maybe they were 3 run saves and the primary closer had pitched the previous 2 games. Context is important.

 

Ok, but in the context of bullpen construction and depth it is important. We do not have a clear closer option if Romano is not available for whatever reason or is showing signs he just doesn’t have it in an outing.

 

Like look at Houston. I wouldn’t hesitate to use Presely, Montero, or Abrue in a save situation.

[Laika]

Ok, but in the context of bullpen construction and depth it is important. We do not have a clear closer option if Romano is not available for whatever reason or is showing signs he just doesn’t have it in an outing.

 

Like look at Houston. I wouldn’t hesitate to use Presely, Montero, or Abrue in a save situation.

 

Stuff+ projections love Pressly still for some reason even though his K rate is way down. They also love Abreu, obviously.

 

But they think Mayza is better than any other HOU reliever. And Yimi is about as good as Montero and Neris.

 

For some reason the model does not love Swanson. Seems weird tbh but there is something to pull at there. Visually, he does not have amazing stuff but his results have been fantastic for a while. Stuff+ might have a specific issue measuring his splitter. I'll go so far as to say that the model is just wrong on Swanson. He should have a projected ERA in line with Steamer (3.62) and perhaps even better.

 

Romano - 3.50

Mayza - 3.57

Garcia - 3.84

Pearson - 4.03

Swanson - 4.10

Pop - 4.11

Richards - 4.50

 

Pressly - 2.77

Abreu - 3.14

Montero - 3.83

Neris - 3.87

Stanek - 3.88

Maton - 4.01

Martinez - 4.60

 

And again on the Richards number - Stuff+ sucks with most changeup. He should be more like 4.00

[John_Havok]

 

The pen really is the victim of ridiculous HR rates. Cimber has been a trainwreck but is hurt, ... Bass has been ass... Jimmy is throwing very well, but everything that gets hit seems to leave the yard. Pop and Richards also off the average. The pen is largely fine if Bass goes away, Cimber returns to normal and the HR rate normalizes for the others.

 

Just looking at this though, I'm thinking Pearson's next appearance might be a bit more high leverage than he's seen so far.

[BigCecil]

Am I the only one that doesn't see a problem with Yimi Garcia, even in high leverage spots? His fastball velo is up, whiffs and K rate way up, walk rate unchanged. His groundball rate is even up. His xERA is 3.13 so it's not like he's getting destroyed, just seems like he's given up an unsustainable amount of homeruns. If his homerun rate regresses I still think he should be right there in the mix for high leverage spots, when he's not being overworked the fastball is reaching as high as 98-99 with movement to go with pretty good secondaries and good command.

 

He can be filthy. He is a big piece of this pen. Almost any team would take him if not all. 1 month in. I still have quite a bit of faith in him.

[Omar]

Stuff+ projections love Pressly still for some reason even though his K rate is way down. They also love Abreu, obviously.

 

But they think Mayza is better than any other HOU reliever. And Yimi is about as good as Montero and Neris.

 

For some reason the model does not love Swanson. Seems weird tbh but there is something to pull at there. Visually, he does not have amazing stuff but his results have been fantastic for a while. Stuff+ might have a specific issue measuring his splitter. I'll go so far as to say that the model is just wrong on Swanson. He should have a projected ERA in line with Steamer (3.62) and perhaps even better.

 

Swanson seems to be successful with his horizontal movement on his pitches; whereas with his splitter/slider his verticle movement is just meh and perhaps is affecting his Stuff+ number overall. Just a thought.

[Spanky99]

Swanson seems to be successful with his horizontal movement on his pitches; whereas with his splitter/slider his verticle movement is just meh and perhaps is affecting his Stuff+ number overall. Just a thought.

 

These numbers fluctuate dramatically with RP's early in the year so far, so much fail in this system at least early. Same for SP's it seems, meh...

 

That metric is starting to bug me.

[Omar]

These numbers fluctuate dramatically with RP's early in the year so far, so much fail in this system at least early. Same for SP's it seems, meh...

 

That metric is starting to bug me.

 

Yeah, maybe. Perhaps for relievers we should be focusing on Location+/pitching+ once they get one third of the way into the season.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Omar

[Spanky99]

Yeah, maybe. Perhaps for relievers we should be focusing on Location+ once they get one third of the way into the season.

 

You get me, cause they'll never help pitching+

 

lol

[BigCecil]

Am I the only one that doesn't see a problem with Yimi Garcia, even in high leverage spots? His fastball velo is up, whiffs and K rate way up, walk rate unchanged. His groundball rate is even up. His xERA is 3.13 so it's not like he's getting destroyed, just seems like he's given up an unsustainable amount of homeruns. If his homerun rate regresses I still think he should be right there in the mix for high leverage spots, when he's not being overworked the fastball is reaching as high as 98-99 with movement to go with pretty good secondaries and good command.

 

Been thinking about pen construction and investment.

 

Bit worried at the IP that Swanson is piling up and Yimi being pretty erratic. With his arsenal its hard to believe he has had as much trouble. Must be command.

 

Yimi - 2/11

Tyler Chatwood- $4M

Yates - $5M

Green - 2/9M

Richards/Francis for Tellez

Cimber for Panik

Bass/Pop for Groshans

Romano for nothing

 

I know this FO has a philosophy of not focusing on pen investment. In principle with reliever volatility thats sound, but in 21 the pen killed us. Didn't help in last years wild card.

 

Liam Hendriks would look good back there if he can come back and be Hendricks. I wonder what kind of cost he is going to have at the deadline?

[Laika]

Been thinking about pen construction and investment.

 

Bit worried at the IP that Swanson is piling up and Yimi being pretty erratic. With his arsenal its hard to believe he has had as much trouble. Must be command.

 

Yimi - 2/11

Tyler Chatwood- $4M

Yates - $5M

Green - 2/9M

Richards/Francis for Tellez

Cimber for Panik

Bass/Pop for Groshans

Romano for nothing

 

I know this FO has a philosophy of not focusing on pen investment. In principle with reliever volatility thats sound, but in 21 the pen killed us. Didn't help in last years wild card.

 

Liam Hendriks would look good back there if he can come back and be Hendricks. I wonder what kind of cost he is going to have at the deadline?

 

It's okay to not focus on pen investment if you develop relievers or have a knack for finding them

 

Toronto is in an awkward place where they have to buy relievers from time to time but they try to be cute doing it. So they end up with the kinds of guys they have. Mostly okay relievers.

[Spanky99]

Man, Yimi has a 26.7% HR/FB rate.

[BigCecil]

It's okay to not focus on pen investment if you develop relievers or have a knack for finding them

 

Toronto is in an awkward place where they have to buy relievers from time to time but they try to be cute doing it. So they end up with the kinds of guys they have. Mostly okay relievers.

 

I agree with this. Its rather shocking the lack of home grown, even failed starter, pen arms we develop internally. At least to to now.

 

Pearson looks ok in the pen, but still big command issues. We talk about Pop since we got him and his potential, and he is ok too, but still issues. Don't have a lot of faith in leverage yet with either of them.

[John_Havok]

Man, Yimi has a 26.7% HR/FB rate.

 

That's actualyl down from the 30% rate he was rocking on May 5th.

 

Here's an updated chart from the one i posted may 5th

 

[Laika]

That's actualyl down from the 30% rate he was rocking on May 5th.

 

Here's an updated chart from the one i posted may 5th

 

 

Mayza is a stud?

 

Nice to have Pearson contributing. Difference maker, potentially.

 

Nice to have Richards pitching well again.

 

#CountYourBlessings

[John_Havok]

Mayza is a stud?

 

Nice to have Pearson contributing. Difference maker, potentially.

 

Nice to have Richards pitching well again.

 

#CountYourBlessings

 

Now it's the walk rates going through the roof. HR rates coming down

[Spanky99]

That's actualyl down from the 30% rate he was rocking on May 5th.

 

Here's an updated chart from the one i posted may 5th

 

Well, yeah... I was expecting it to go down a lot by now, it looks as though it's some s***** luck, he's pitching with an average of 7 degrees of LA, by far the lowest of his career, weird is that. Hah!

[BigCecil]

I always forget about Mayza and that home grown talent. Overall he has been f***ing good. I don't know how really as his stuff looks "unfilthy", but he has been.

 

Lets hope Cimber comes back better than he began the year. He can be a useful mid and take some pressure off the other arms.

[Laika]

I always forget about Mayza and that home grown talent. Overall he has been f***ing good. I don't know how really as his stuff looks "unfilthy", but he has been.

 

His Stuff grades are pretty solid now actually

 

110 sinker and 147!!!! on the slider

 

With a Location+ that is above average

 

That makes his Pitching+ 105 which is almost at Romano level (107)

 

In 2022 his slider was bad and his command was only a 99. So he must have changed his slider!!!

[Laika]

Indeed he has. It is 2mph slower and is has almost 5 more inches of vertical break compared to 2022 and 2021.

[Stangstag]

His Stuff grades are pretty solid now actually

 

110 sinker and 147!!!! on the slider

 

With a Location+ that is above average

 

That makes his Pitching+ 105 which is almost at Romano level (107)

 

In 2022 his slider was bad and his command was only a 99. So he must have changed his slider!!!

 

I’ll still never forgive him for laying an absolute turd in the wildcard game. All he had to do was not give up a homerun.

[Laika]

I’ll still never forgive him for laying an absolute turd in the wildcard game. All he had to do was not give up a homerun.

 

I suggest simply choosing to be happy

 

try it and see