General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Pendleton]

[Ray]

Jose Berrios has a 2.32 FIP, and 3.13 xFIP. Already matched his 2022 season in fWAR.

[z3r0s]

Jose Berrios has a 2.32 FIP, and 3.13 xFIP. Already matched his 2022 season in fWAR.

 

he's got an unreasonably low HR rate right now, especially given his historical line. Does FIP make any accounting for this? I'll admit that I don't actually know how it's calculated lol.

[jaysblue]

Great start from Berrios last night. Hope to see more consistency and starts like that moving forward from him. If so, Jays rotation will be in great shape even if Manoah does s*** the bed.

 

My bold prediction: Berrios will out WAR Manoah looks good right now!

[z3r0s]

(not to say I'm waiting for him to suck, I've always been on the 'Berrios will figure it out' train, and I hope/expect he has)

[Spanky99]

he's got an unreasonably low HR rate right now, especially given his historical line. Does FIP make any accounting for this? I'll admit that I don't actually know how it's calculated lol.

 

FIP gets penalized bigly, on Dingers.

[Laika]

Jays rotation is so weird. All over the place with talent, expectations, results. Haha.

[Grant77]

he's got an unreasonably low HR rate right now, especially given his historical line. Does FIP make any accounting for this? I'll admit that I don't actually know how it's calculated lol.

 

xFIP adjusts for home runs and is 3.13 right now.

[Solaxys]

 

He is currently tied for 7th in Majors with Shohei Ohtani in fWAR at 1.1 (better than Gausman at 1.0 fWAR).

 

0.31 HR/9 and 1.57 BB/9 carrying the weight.

[Stangstag]

He is currently tied for 7th in Majors with Shohei Ohtani in fWAR at 1.1 (better than Gausman at 1.0 fWAR).

 

0.31 HR/9 and 1.57 BB/9 carrying the weight.

 

Pretty shocking that he has more fWAR than Gausman. Maybe Gausman dinged terribly for that Houston start?

[Solaxys]

Pretty shocking that he has more fWAR than Gausman. Maybe Gausman dinged terribly for that Houston start?

 

Ya, Gausman has given up more HRs than Berrios, so he has higher FIP than Berrios (2.32 v. 2.85)

[Brownie19]

He is currently tied for 7th in Majors with Shohei Ohtani in fWAR at 1.1 (better than Gausman at 1.0 fWAR).

 

0.31 HR/9 and 1.57 BB/9 carrying the weight.

 

The HR/9 will definitely increase, but I think it's possible for him to maintain a low BB/9 (maybe not 1.57, but he could keep it <2.0). All very encouraging signs so far this year.

[Orgfiller]

Pretty shocking that he has more fWAR than Gausman. Maybe Gausman dinged terribly for that Houston start?

 

It's just the homeruns. Gausman beats Berrios in xFIP 2.76 to 3.13. I don't think anyone will complain if Berrios regresses to his xFIP though lol.

[Ray]

It's just the homeruns. Gausman beats Berrios in xFIP 2.76 to 3.13. I don't think anyone will complain if Berrios regresses to his xFIP though lol.

 

His xFIP would still be the best season of his career, ERA wise lol.

 

After seeing how Rays, Astros, and White Sox hitters seem to be whiffing on his fastballs, I’m re-adjusting my expectations for Berrios. I really think he can be the mid 3‘s ERA guy like he was for years before trading for him. Plus, his changeup looks nastier than ever.

[Orgfiller]

His xFIP would still be the best season of his career, ERA wise lol.

 

After seeing how Rays, Astros, and White Sox hitters seem to be whiffing on his fastballs, I’m re-adjusting my expectations for Berrios. I really think he can be the mid 3‘s ERA guy like he was for years before trading for him. Plus, his changeup looks nastier than ever.

Agreed. His changeup was the best it's been with us last night IMO. Fastball being placed in good spots and with good velo, dialing it up to 96-97 a few times. I think we'll definitely take Berrios going back to his career averages, but with his stuff and poise I think it's safe to say there was always another level for him, which hopefully he's begun to take.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Jays coming up to a month into the season with having played a heavy road schedule vs top competition have played at a 101 win rate. That's even without any real win streak or a series sweep. I sense the Jays will be ok this season...just stay healthy.

[Terminator]

Jays coming up to a month into the season with having played a heavy road schedule vs top competition have played at a 101 win rate. That's even without any real win streak or a series sweep. I sense the Jays will be ok this season...just stay healthy.

 

The early returns on Berrios and Kikuchi have been HUGE. Backend of the rotation was the biggest question mark entering the year and those two are looking good so far.

[Terminator]

The Jays schedule from May until about mid-June is pretty tough. The teams we face in May are a combined 51 games above .500 and June isn't much easier.

 

Next series in order starting on May 1:

@BOS

@PIT

@PHI

ATL

NYY

BAL

@TB

@MIN

MIL

@NYM

HOU

MIN

@BAL

 

Then on Jun 16th it really softens up until the ASB.

[wilko]

The Jays schedule from May until about mid-June is pretty tough. The teams we face in May are a combined 51 games above .500 and June isn't much easier.

 

Next series in order starting on May 1:

@BOS

@PIT

@PHI

ATL

NYY

BAL

@TB

@MIN

MIL

@NYM

HOU

MIN

@BAL

 

Then on Jun 16th it really softens up until the ASB.

 

That's pretty gross for the most part.

[Laika]

The Jays schedule from May until about mid-June is pretty tough. The teams we face in May are a combined 51 games above .500 and June isn't much easier.

 

Next series in order starting on May 1:

@BOS

@PIT

@PHI

ATL

NYY

BAL

@TB

@MIN

MIL

@NYM

HOU

MIN

@BAL

 

Then on Jun 16th it really softens up until the ASB.

 

Seems weird, man.

[Ray]

[Terminator]

Hate to beat a dead horse but while we are talking schedules, the Rays schedule continues to be a joke. They get 4 games against the ChiSox next.

 

So far they've played series against Detroit, Washington, Oakland, Boston, Cincy, and the White Sox twice. They've yet to play the second series against the White Sox but they only lost once against those teams.

 

The only series they've played against contenders are the Jays and Astros. Lost to the Jays twice and the Astros once with another game tonight.

[John_Havok]

Hate to beat a dead horse but while we are talking schedules, the Rays schedule continues to be a joke. They get 4 games against the ChiSox next.

 

So far they've played series against Detroit, Washington, Oakland, Boston, Cincy, and the White Sox twice. They've yet to play the second series against the White Sox but they only lost once against those teams.

 

The only series they've played against contenders are the Jays and Astros. Lost to the Jays twice and the Astros once with another game tonight.

 

They also get another series with Oakland later in the season, Jays only get them once all year long. The Rays schedule overall is softer than baby s***.

[Laika]

Hate to beat a dead horse but while we are talking schedules, the Rays schedule continues to be a joke. They get 4 games against the ChiSox next.

 

So far they've played series against Detroit, Washington, Oakland, Boston, Cincy, and the White Sox twice. They've yet to play the second series against the White Sox but they only lost once against those teams.

 

The only series they've played against contenders are the Jays and Astros. Lost to the Jays twice and the Astros once with another game tonight.

 

And after the White Sox they get the Pirates, lol.

 

I guess May is the month where we would hope to see the Rays go on a losing streak:

Yankees, Orioles, Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Blue Jays, Dodgers

 

Toronto gets one soft patch in August/Sept:

Nationals, Rockies, A's, Royals, Rangers, Red Sox

 

And that soft patch in June/July around the all star break:

Rangers, Marlins, A's, Giants, Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, Diamondbacks.

[harvey16]

Jays have tied the franchise record for best start after 25 games. Though 16-9 is a good start, seems strange we have never had a better record then that to start a season.

[Carlos Danger]

And after the White Sox they get the Pirates, lol.

 

Hey, that is the first place Pirates! Show some respect...

[Laika]

I'll respect them if they sweep the Rays!

[G-Snarls]

Jays have tied the franchise record for best start after 25 games. Though 16-9 is a good start, seems strange we have never had a better record then that to start a season.

 

Yes that's hard to believe actually

[Orgfiller]

Jays have tied the franchise record for best start after 25 games. Though 16-9 is a good start, seems strange we have never had a better record then that to start a season.

 

I mean they're on pace for 103 wins with their .640 winning rate. Even the 92-93 teams never won more than 96 games in a season. Their top season in wins was in '85 with 99.

 

This year's team has been pretty dominant with a tough schedule (considering opponents and amount of road games) despite the lack of a prolonged winning streak. Odds of having a streak like the Rays for example are pretty low, and even lower if you set the qualifier to be in the first month of the season.

[jerb]

 

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

 

Mitch White (elbow) made his first rehab start in single-A tonight:

 

3.1IP 3H 0ER 2K 0BB

Up to 94.8 MPH with the fastball

 

#BlueJays