The Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier

[Captain_Obvious]

For those who wanted Grisham, here is your Grisham equivalent. Please don't reference 2023 projections like they're the bible. Also, I do not care if KK produces 0.5 WAR less than Grisham. We ain't trading one of our catchers for a 0.5 WAR upgrade.

[connorp]

I kind of like the idea of Max Kepler as a potential trade candidate. His underlying Statcast metrics are pretty encouraging and he's run a sizeable xWOBA/WOBA spilt the last few seasons. As a heavily shifted left handed batter he has potential to benefit quite a bit from the upcoming shift ban

 

I think you’re reading too much into Statcast if you think there’s encouraging stuff from a 30yo who has had pretty much the same same career stats outside one outlier year. I mean how many Hitters get noticeably better after 30?

[max silver]

I think you’re reading too much into Statcast if you think there’s encouraging stuff from a 30yo who has had pretty much the same same career stats outside one outlier year. I mean how many Hitters get noticeably better after 30?

 

Go actually look at his underlying metrics before you instantly dismiss the idea. Kepler's underlying stats could very well lead to an above average WRC+ with the removal of the shift. He is shifted nearly 90% of the time. His expected stats are all very solid as the quality of contact is good. He avoids strikeouts and walks plenty, and puts the ball in play a lot. I'm not suggesting he is going to suddenly pop 30 home runs again, but the numbers under the hood suggest strong potential for an offensive resurgence. Combine that with stellar defence and you suddenly have a pretty valuable player.

[G-Snarls]

Stolen from a Teeet:

Most Defensive Runs Saved

Since 2015

 

1. Kevin Kiermaier 133

Andrelton Simmons 133

3. Mookie Betts 127

4. Nolan Arenado 125

 

Next closest: 80

[Laika]

Still no word on the cost?

[Stangstag]

Still no word on the cost?

 

Yeah seems weird

[Jays24]

Maybe his physical is concerning the Jays and the deal might not go through?

[John_Havok]

Maybe his physical is concerning the Jays and the deal might not go through?

 

Physicals usually take a few days to set up and get completed. Any signing that gets announced on whatever day usually doesn’t get confirmed until 2-3 days later.

 

That said, the guy just had his hip surgery in August with a 6-7 month recovery time. It’s entirely possible they see his medicals and lose confidence.

[glory]

We usually do see terms of a deal reported even during “pending physical” stage. Surprised we haven’t even heard about the years on the deal yet.

[Jonn]

Maybe his physical is concerning the Jays and the deal might not go through?

 

We can only hope.

[polar bear]

Mark down another W for The Sheriff. I tried telling all you Bellinger Fanboys that this would be the direction we’d go but none of you would listen.

 

I listened.

[Captain_Obvious]

Stolen from a Teeet:

Most Defensive Runs Saved

Since 2015

 

1. Kevin Kiermaier 133

Andrelton Simmons 133

3. Mookie Betts 127

4. Nolan Arenado 125

 

Next closest: 80

 

Can someone do most HRs since 2000? Perhaps we should sign Pujols if he tops the list.

[max silver]

Can someone do most HRs since 2000? Perhaps we should sign Pujols if he tops the list.

 

Well duh of course a 40+ year old aging slugger is a great comparable for an elite defensive center fielder in his early 30's.

 

2015 probably isn't a great starting point as Kiermaier doesn't quite have the defensive chops of his initial years in MLB. 2018 seems to be when he settled into his current level of overall value. For all defenders since 2018 Kiermaier ranks 8th in defensive runs saved. Change this to center fielders only and he's in second place, only a single run behind Michael A. Taylor. This is a player who has been an elite defender and provided he doesn't have severe lingering effects from his hip surgery will continue to be an elite defender.

[max silver]

We can only hope.

 

It seems as though the sky is falling types want to compare KK to the likes of Zimmer and JBJ. Those guys are still out there so if this deal falls through the team can still bring those guys aboard instead so that you can have an actual reason to bitch and moan like usual.

[Jonn]

It seems as though the sky is falling types want to compare KK to the likes of Zimmer and JBJ. Those guys are still out there so if this deal falls through the team can still bring those guys aboard instead so that you can have an actual reason to bitch and moan like usual.

 

When did I say the sky is falling lol? I’m not a fan of the move but I’m not panicking. They still have a lot of work to do. Can anyone honestly say at this point in the off-season that the team has gotten better?

[connorp]

Can someone do most HRs since 2000? Perhaps we should sign Pujols if he tops the list.

 

Lol. This was my first thought as well

[Captain_Obvious]

Well duh of course a 40+ year old aging slugger is a great comparable for an elite defensive center fielder in his early 30's.

 

2015 probably isn't a great starting point as Kiermaier doesn't quite have the defensive chops of his initial years in MLB. 2018 seems to be when he settled into his current level of overall value. For all defenders since 2018 Kiermaier ranks 8th in defensive runs saved. Change this to center fielders only and he's in second place, only a single run behind Michael A. Taylor. This is a player who has been an elite defender and provided he doesn't have severe lingering effects from his hip surgery will continue to be an elite defender.

 

Only the past two years matter for future projection. 3 years ago is ancient history in baseball. Rodon was non tendered 3 years ago. Ryu was good 3 years ago. Yelich was still considered an MVP contender 3 years ago.

 

Just to be clear, I like KK and I think he is a good addition. However, there are more rational ways to highlight the realistic value he will bring to the team instead of painting him as the elite CF defender he used to be.

[max silver]

When did I say the sky is falling lol? I’m not a fan of the move but I’m not panicking. They still have a lot of work to do. Can anyone honestly say at this point in the off-season that the team has gotten better?

 

Aside from Nimmo and Bellinger Kiermaier is all that was left in free agency that could man center field and provide any kind of value to the team. I never said the team is better than last season, and I'm not going to rush to judgement in this regard as the offseason is far from over. If they were to retain Stripling I think they would be close to as good as last season at the very least, and once a catcher is moved they will likely be better. It's not unreasonable to expect some level of bounceback from Berrios and Kikuchi likely isn't going to be as much of a dud as we was last year either, so there is plenty of reason to expect at least a modicum of internal improvement.

[connorp]

Well duh of course a 40+ year old aging slugger is a great comparable for an elite defensive center fielder in his early 30's.

 

2015 probably isn't a great starting point as Kiermaier doesn't quite have the defensive chops of his initial years in MLB. 2018 seems to be when he settled into his current level of overall value. For all defenders since 2018 Kiermaier ranks 8th in defensive runs saved. Change this to center fielders only and he's in second place, only a single run behind Michael A. Taylor. This is a player who has been an elite defender and provided he doesn't have severe lingering effects from his hip surgery will continue to be an elite defender.

 

He’s 34 next season in a position that regularly sees dramatic decline in the early 30’s. He declined last year already glancing at FG page. Now he had Matt Kemp surgery. It’s not like his bat makes him viable paying solid defense. Just because someone doesn’t like the signing doesn’t mean it’s doom and gloom.

 

As I’ve said, I applauded the Kooch signing, while others puked in their mouth a little. Get over it

[max silver]

He’s 34 next season in a position that regularly sees dramatic decline in the early 30’s. He declined last year already glancing at FG page. Now he had Matt Kemp surgery. It’s not like his bat makes him viable paying solid defense. Just because someone doesn’t like the signing doesn’t mean it’s doom and gloom.

 

As I’ve said, I applauded the Kooch signing, while others puked in their mouth a little. Get over it

 

Aside from a Kiermaier signing there was literally nothing left in free agency to man center field with any type of chance of actually contributing value. I can only assume the team wasn't able to align in values with other clubs on a young center field trade, so aside from more bottom of the barrel replacement level or worse signings there was literally nothing else available. The next option seemed to be Whit Merrifield receiving regular playing time in center field, I'll take Kiermaier every single time if that's the alternative.

[connorp]

Aside from a Kiermaier signing there was literally nothing left in free agency to man center field with any type of chance of actually contributing value. I can only assume the team wasn't able to align in values with other clubs on a young center field trade, so aside from more bottom of the barrel replacement level or worse signings there was literally nothing else available. The next option seemed to be Whit Merrifield receiving regular playing time in center field, I'll take Kiermaier every single time if that's the alternative.

 

I can respect it framed like that. Wish they didn’t have to tack on a year though. I’m sure it needed to be so

[max silver]

I can respect it framed like that. Wish they didn’t have to tack on a year though. I’m sure it needed to be so

 

As far as I can tell the terms of the deal haven't been released yet.

[Carlos Danger]

Jansen to the Cubs for Happ + maybe???

 

We would have to send more. No way Jansen gets Happ plus... Happ is a valuable asset.

[Carlos Danger]

The goal of the off season should be run prevention. Make it superior than last season where it was unsat!

 

So far- The Teo move and KK does that. We made our pen better, we have a SP with upside, we increased our OF defense significantly.

 

The off season is not over yet. However, the above moves are in line with what should be our strategic objective.

[connorp]

The goal of the off season should be run prevention. Make it superior than last season where it was unsat!

 

So far- The Teo move and KK does that. We made our pen better, we have a SP with upside, we increased our OF defense significantly.

 

The off season is not over yet. However, the above moves are in line with what should be our strategic objective.

 

Going to be broken record lol… KK probably isn’t going to make any difference to Springer in a playoff series. And you lost Teo’s bat. Stop saying it’s better. At least say in the long term it’s probably a better move as we only had Teo for one year and now got a controllable RP, which are costly on the open market. That I can get, even if I don’t dig it

[connorp]

If they get Conforto (if he’s not dead) it could be better

[Stangstag]

Going to be broken record lol… KK probably isn’t going to make any difference to Springer in a playoff series. And you lost Teo’s bat. Stop saying it’s better. At least say in the long term it’s probably a better move as we only had Teo for one year and now got a controllable RP, which are costly on the open market. That I can get, even if I don’t dig it

 

KK is just as likely to make a difference with a game-saving defensive play as Teo is to hit a big homerun

[Captain_Obvious]

we would have to send more. No way jansen gets happ plus... Happ is a valuable asset.

 

lol

[Ron tokama]

lol

 

What’s funny? We would probably have to add in a top five prospect plus top 10 prospect to get that done

[connorp]

KK is just as likely to make a difference with a game-saving defensive play as Teo is to hit a big homerun

 

It’d have to a very rare chance that he can, while Springer can’t.

You’re crossing lanes

 

And there’s a difference in likelihoods from a game saving catch developing vs 4-5ABs/game