The Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier

[Jimcanuck]

I torn between wanting Bellinger to fail because Jim owns him in fantasy and wanting him to win the MVP because of the Terminator spin that would be required.

 

Don't have him in LOD but having an internal debate on whether to approach Laika with an offer.

[BTS]

Don't have him in LOD but having an internal debate on whether to approach Laika with an offer.

 

You should. Laika is definitely looking to cut his losses.

[Laika]

Bellinger was an integral part of my championship. I believe he had a .422 wOBA in the semis against Detroit and homered against Jimbo in the championship week.

 

If I could go back in time I would pay even MORE for him.

[Terminator]

If Bellinger can rediscover his stroke he can end up as more than twice the player of Kiermaier. I just didn't think it was worth spending $17.5 million to find out.

 

"If"? Why don't we just look at what they've done on the field and you'll see a guy who is actually THRICE the player. And it ain't Bellinger pal.

 

In the past 3 seasons, Kiermaier has been worth 5.1 WAR in 234 games. Bellinger has been worth 2.1 WAR in 295 games.

 

So on a per game basis, going all the way back to the beginning of this DECADE, Kevin Kiermaier has been worth 3x the amount of WAR.

[G-Snarls]

Terminator saw the opportunity to use the word "thrice" and took it. Like a BOSS.

[Stangstag]

Terminator saw the opportunity to use the word "thrice" and took it. Like a BOSS.

 

Thrice and noon-thirty need to make a comeback

[max silver]

"If"? Why don't we just look at what they've done on the field and you'll see a guy who is actually THRICE the player. And it ain't Bellinger pal.

 

In the past 3 seasons, Kiermaier has been worth 5.1 WAR in 234 games. Bellinger has been worth 2.1 WAR in 295 games.

 

So on a per game basis, going all the way back to the beginning of this DECADE, Kevin Kiermaier has been worth 3x the amount of WAR.

 

Considering this decade isn't even 30% over yet I won't put too much stock into looking back to the beginning of it. Bellinger and Kiermaier have similar realistic floors (Bellinger isn't likely as bad as his 2021 numbers look as he produced a .237 WOBA compared to a .281 xWOBA), and projection systems view them as producing value at a similar rate based on overall playing time. Kiermaier is the more affordable option but Bellinger still has a non zero chance of rediscovering some of his prior offensive mojo. It's far from a given who will turn out to be the better signing at this point. If Bellinger didn't end up receiving a crazy offer from the Cubs I would have been absolutely fine with Bellinger due to potential upside but the Jays operate under a tight budget so they can't be throwing money out the door on a ton of risky upside plays. At any rate if they do decide to go this route I'd much rather see them gamble on a Conforto signing as he's been an above average major league outfielder much more recently than Bellinger and feels a lot more likely to experience a bounce back season.

[Jimcanuck]

Goddamn, Kiermaier had more WAR than Mike Trout in 2021!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Injuries suck.

[Stangstag]

Goddamn, Kiermaier had more WAR than Mike Trout in 2021!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Injuries suck.

 

You know who didn't have more WAR than Mike Trout in 2021????

 

Cody Bellinger. Almost thrice the amount of games played and negative WAR lol

[Jimcanuck]

You know who didn't have more WAR than Mike Trout in 2021????

 

Cody Bellinger. Almost thrice the amount of games played and negative WAR lol

 

True, just pointing out the flaw in Terminator's spin.

[Terminator]

Goddamn, Kiermaier had more WAR than Mike Trout in 2021!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Injuries suck.

 

You guys make so many damn excuses for Bellinger it's hilarious. But guess what Jim? Kiermaier has been hurt too yet he's been THRICE the player the past three seasons. No excuses necessary for Kiermaier because his play on the field has proven he's the better player. The guy was playing through a bad hip and despite his game being built on speed he still gutted it out to produce on the field.

 

And Ross Atkins and Andrew Friedman agree with me. The Chicago Cubs, the worst franchise in sports history, agree with you. Enough said.

[G-Snarls]

My 2 cents in the debate:

 

Kiermaier should play excellent defense and has an 80% chance of being a slightly below average or average hitter this year. No chance he's better than that, and 20% chance he has a crappy offensive season.

 

Bellinger will play excellent defense and has an 80% chance of sucking balls hitting, maybe a 10% chance of being "good" and a 10% chance of magically returning to a beast at the plate

 

/opinion based on a combination of stats and gut feeling

Edited December 13, 2022 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

I'm fine with the Kiermaier signing knowing that they tried hard for Nimmo and lost out to the Met$$$ and that he probably just wanted to stay there anyway. The overpay required to get him away would probably have been absolutely outrageous. Edited December 13, 2022 by G-Snarls

[Jimcanuck]

You guys make so many damn excuses for Bellinger it's hilarious.

 

So your position is injuries did not impact Bellinger's performance the last two years?

[TheHurl]

If Bellinger can rediscover his stroke he can end up as more than twice the player of Kiermaier. I just didn't think it was worth spending $17.5 million to find out.

 

If he rediscovers his stroke we can be one of the teams trying to trade for him in July.

[LGBJ29]

Kiermaier Deal is 1 Year 9M

[Terminator]

[Laika]

omg

[G-Snarls]

Fine with me

 

Now let's trade for a big LH hitter in a trade that no one saw coming...

[G-Snarls]

omg

 

ikwym

[Laika]

Chad Atkins gets KK to take less money to play in Toronto

 

I guess the days of Toronto having to tack extra years and money onto every FA contract are over?

[Terminator]

Fangraphs predicted 2 years 20 mil and Atkins got him for less than half of that.

[Jonn]

More than fine with that deal. Would still be nice to add another bat to the Outfield.

[G-Snarls]

Chad Atkins gets KK to take less money to play in Toronto

 

I guess the days of Toronto having to tack extra years and money onto every FA contract are over?

 

Might be

[Stangstag]

 

Hell yeah

[Stangstag]

Chad Atkins gets KK to take less money to play in Toronto

 

I guess the days of Toronto having to tack extra years and money onto every FA contract are over?

 

KK doesn’t care about the turf, he played in Tampa for his entire career. Plus he owns a house in Florida so wanted to stay in the east.

 

Perfect scenario for us really

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jays luxury payroll estimate is now $233,607,143 according to FG with the Keirmaier contract.

 

What's the threshold for luxury tax again?

[Omar]

Jays luxury payroll estimate is now $233,607,143 according to FG with the Keirmaier contract.

 

What's the threshold for luxury tax again?

 

2023 threshold is $233M

[Ray]

Jays luxury payroll estimate is now $233,607,143 according to FG with the Keirmaier contract.

 

What's the threshold for luxury tax again?

 

$233M, so technically we’re over.

[G-Snarls]

Jays luxury payroll estimate is now $233,607,143 according to FG with the Keirmaier contract.

 

What's the threshold for luxury tax again?

 

233M

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/