Teo Traded to Seattle

[max silver]

I'm kind of in the middle on all this. I don't like the HR jacket much but I don't mind it. I find most fans love the joking around and comradery in the dugout when we are winning and loathe it when we aren't. We heard a lot of talk at the end of the '21 season after their September "almost made it in" run about how great they all got along and how you could see this in the dugout with them joking around all then time. I'd like to see less of it when we are doing/playing poorly myself, but I don't get too upset over it. 162 games is a grind.

 

I find I get much more upset about mental errors, poor baserunning, very lackadaisical play etc. It happens on every team at times, but there is never really a good excuse for it at this level.

 

That's exactly the type of thing I take issue with as well. What happens on the field is ultimately what matters, I just don't see how fun loving guys *gasp* enjoying each others company and having fun is worth getting so upset about. When the team was in protracted slumps and losing a lot of games in short order it was easy to see the mood on the bench souring and a lot less of the upbeat nature. I don't understand why people seem to think the players should be acting like they are a funeral when the team is behind in the score.

[Laika]

Bro. Like 95% of ESPN and TNT sports commentary is opinions on stuff like that. Accept it and move on. Save the legal jargon for your work pushing papers

 

You are such an NPC lmao

[saskjayfan]

Erik Swanson was put in high leverage situations 16% of the time last year. The other 84% were low leverage or mid leverge situation. 62% of the batters he faced were below league average hitters. The average OPS+ of the hitters he faced last year was an OPS+ of 87.8.

 

Did we trade one Mirage for another Mirage? Only time will tell.

[MikeM3]

Erik Swanson was put in high leverage situations 16% of the time last year. The other 84% were low leverage or mid leverge situation. 62% of the batters he faced were below league average hitters. The average OPS+ of the hitters he faced last year was an OPS+ of 87.8.

 

Did we trade one Mirage for another Mirage? Only time will tell.

 

It's tough to count on a reliever who doesn't throw hard. The only universal axiom of pitching is throwing hard = better results.

[saskjayfan]

It's tough to count on a reliever who doesn't throw hard. The only universal axiom of pitching is throwing hard = better results.

 

Managers put players in positions to succeed. Swanson was not used in difficult situations or against the best hitters the opposition had very often last year. He's had one good year.

 

Relievers at the best of times can just fall off a cliff and suck even guys who have had many good years. I think Swanson will be serviceable, I just don't expect anything close to his numbers last year.

 

I have oddly high hopes for Pearson. Probably because I'm stubborn and I like a good comeback story.

[Krylian]

It's tough to count on a reliever who doesn't throw hard. The only universal axiom of pitching is throwing hard = better results.

 

Unless you have a gimmick, like Cimber.

[Jonn]

He misses bats at a good clip thats the important thing. Jays still need more velo in the pen though. A lot of guys throwing the same speed.

[max silver]

Erik Swanson was put in high leverage situations 16% of the time last year. The other 84% were low leverage or mid leverge situation. 62% of the batters he faced were below league average hitters. The average OPS+ of the hitters he faced last year was an OPS+ of 87.8.

 

Did we trade one Mirage for another Mirage? Only time will tell.

 

These statistics are interesting, where can I find these? I'm interested to compare this against other notable relievers.

 

Swanson appears to have pitched pretty well in the leverage situations that he did find himself utilized in. He pitched to a 0.92 FIP/2.29 xFIP in high leverage situations, with an inflated 5.20 ERA which looks to be largely influenced by a .409 BABIP.

[BigCecil]

Erik Swanson was put in high leverage situations 16% of the time last year. The other 84% were low leverage or mid leverge situation. 62% of the batters he faced were below league average hitters. The average OPS+ of the hitters he faced last year was an OPS+ of 87.8.

 

Did we trade one Mirage for another Mirage? Only time will tell.

 

Yep. Felt better about one quality season from the guy only, after I listened to Sarris's deeper dive into his combo of quality stuff and command on The Drive Time podcast from yesterday. Was also surprised he rated him higher than Montero.

 

The relievers market has jumped off the ledge. Such a fickle beast the ol' pen. As far as Pearson if ever there was a year we could use a dead cat bounce from him and/or Merryweather, '23 is it.

[max silver]

Yep. Felt better about one quality season from the guy only, after I listened to Sarris's deeper dive into his combo of quality stuff and command on The Drive Time podcast from yesterday. Was also surprised he rated him higher than Montero.

 

The relievers market has jumped off the ledge. Such a fickle beast the ol' pen. As far as Pearson if ever there was a year we could use a dead cat bounce from him and/or Merryweather, '23 is it.

 

I haven't heard any reports from people who saw him actually pitching live and in person, but Pearson's numbers from winter ball are very encouraging. 12 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 k's, 5H, 4 BB all provide hope of him being able to help the 2023 IF he can finally stay healthy enough to provide some MLB innings.

[Laika]

You guys are acting like "low leverage" MLB pitching is AAA. You're overadjusting Swanson's numbers.

 

He has amazing extension btw so his effective velo is better than his sitting FB reading.

 

He's got really good command of a good 4 seamer, a whiff pitch to nuke guys, and a decent third pitch.

 

He is probably better than any non-Romano RP Toronto has...

[Stangstag]

You guys area acting like "low leverage" MLB pitching is AAA. You're overadjusting Swanson's numbers.

 

He has amazing extension btw so his effective velo is better than his sitting FB reading.

 

He's got really good command of a good 4 seamer, a whiff pitch to nuke guys, and a decent third pitch.

 

He is probably better than any non-Romano RP Toronto has...

 

Hasn’t he added a splitter that he never threw prior to 2020 also?? He could be legit good. His projections are good/decent.

[Laika]

Hasn’t he added a splitter that he never threw prior to 2020 also?? He could be legit good. His projections are good/decent.

 

Yeah the splitter was new in 2021 and elite in 2022.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The only question mark on Pearson is his durability IMO

 

If he's healthy, he's going to slay. His stuff is good enough.

 

Sure would be nice if Merryweather could figure it out too, but I fear he's a victim of the sticky stuff crack down. He's been getting throttled when healthy, ever since MLB came down on that.

 

I really hope the Jays have enough in the budget to bring in another decent starter. Not sure I'm confident in any of the starters after Gausman and Manoah. Trying to fill the remaining 3 spots with Berrios, Kikuchi, White and .......... uh, yeah...seems like a huge mistake.

[Stangstag]

Yeah the splitter was new in 2021 and elite in 2022.

 

Its not crazy to think he can repeat his 2022 numbers in at least one of his remaining years of control

[Laika]

Its not crazy to think he can repeat his 2022 numbers in at least one of his remaining years of control

 

And Toronto isn't asking him to come in and close. He'll be a setup guy so it's not going to ALL be high leverage.

[Omar]

The only question mark on Pearson is his durability IMO

If he's healthy, he's going to slay. His stuff is good enough.

Sure would be nice if Merryweather could figure it out too, but I fear he's a victim of the sticky stuff crack down. He's been getting throttled when healthy, ever since MLB came down on that.

I really hope the Jays have enough in the budget to bring in another decent starter. Not sure I'm confident in any of the starters after Gausman and Manoah. Trying to fill the remaining 3 spots with Berrios, Kikuchi, White and .......... uh, yeah...seems like a huge mistake.

 

That's not a given yet imo. Big wait and see I think.

[max silver]

That's not a given yet imo. Big wait and see I think.

 

Pearson has shown some very tantalizing glimpses at his potential when utilized as a reliever.

[glory]

That's not a given yet imo. Big wait and see I think.

 

Yeah we can't assume anything yet, but Pearson as a RP in September 2021 looked pretty good. If the Jays give up on him as a SP or a bulk reliever, and just tell him to let loose for one inning appearances, then I think that's his best shot of being a contributor. Of course he has to stay healthy, and that's the biggest question mark with him.

[Ehjays]

Finally caught a Sarris breakdown FWIW on Swanson and the Nimmo.

 

His has Swanson rated better than Montero who just got 3/30, and worth 3/35 in todays market (not that he would be eligible now).

 

He likes Nimmo, even at 6/130 which is like $7mm/win based on projections. I was surprised. Loves his OBP and lack of chase. Sees him as major upgrade over Teo. General take was Teo move was pretty clever for money and a number of reasons.

 

Here is the Sportsnet breakdown of the trade. They do the overlay of his fastball and splitter and touched on Kirks exceptional skills...here is a sample......

 

And you can bet the Blue Jays thought about how important Alejandro Kirk’s exceptional receiving of low pitches was for pitchers like Gausman and Alek Manoah when acquiring Swanson to bolster the back end of their bullpen. Baseball Savant has graded Kirk as a top-three framer across baseball each of the last two seasons on pitches at the bottom of the strike zone. And where does Swanson locate his splitter and that slider he’s trying to steal strikes with?

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/what-new-acquisition-erik-swanson-brings-to-the-blue-jays-bullpen/

[Spanky99]

Here is the Sportsnet breakdown of the trade. They do the overlay of his fastball and splitter and touched on Kirks exceptional skills...here is a sample......

 

And you can bet the Blue Jays thought about how important Alejandro Kirk’s exceptional receiving of low pitches was for pitchers like Gausman and Alek Manoah when acquiring Swanson to bolster the back end of their bullpen. Baseball Savant has graded Kirk as a top-three framer across baseball each of the last two seasons on pitches at the bottom of the strike zone. And where does Swanson locate his splitter and that slider he’s trying to steal strikes with?

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/what-new-acquisition-erik-swanson-brings-to-the-blue-jays-bullpen/

 

I liked that article by Zwelling. It was fun especially with the gifs and overlay.

[Jimcanuck]

Nobody has ever said that they’re not allowed to have fun. What people have been critical of is when they’re down 8-3 and the barrio is clowning around at the far end of the dugout.

 

The everybody should always have fun jockeys are apart of the participation trophy crowd.

 

It’s not the try league!

 

Didn't Bongos encourage this? After losses, he'd talk about how the players are loose and having fun and it's all good. A management philosophy I expect, positive thinking and all that. If there was any difference in Jays clubhouse behaviour compared to other teams, Bongos is part of the reason.

 

Clubhouse culture in no small part flows from the manager. By my eyes there appeared to be a change right from the point Schneider took the reins.

[rabbit4949]

This team was constructed in a manner that gave them no chance to win the world series. This is obviously just my opinion. You can only outhit your mistakes for so long.. You can't win with a ss that can't throw you out from the hole when combined with a defensively average cf flanked by 2 guys that couldn't catch a cold. People complain that the pitchers can't get anyone out. There is some truth there but how many times have you seen balls fall in that extend innings.How many times have you seen unmade plays at ss . I am not even talking about the errant throws ,just unmade plays. I don't think any pitching staff could overcome the defensive deficiencies of this team. I must also comment on the lack of effort on this team.I keep hearing about how hard they work.before the game . How about some effort during the game. Watch Cleveland play . As soon as contact is made their eyes are focused on 1st base and they run full speed to put pressure on the defense. Watch the Jays when they make contact. They jog out of the box and watch the fielder to see if they should actually to 1st. I can't count the number of games lost through lack of effort or other baserunning blunders. The only guys who get a pass here are Chapman,Merrifield, Bradley and Jansen.I think that it is no coincidence that 3 of these guys come from other organizations. It doesn't cost anything to run hard to 1st base but it costs plenty not to run.

[Dagagad]

The swanson low leverage thing ignores how good the pen in seattle is. He was lower leverage because their pen has got monsters at the top. In our pen, he will be way higher.

[L54]

Didn't Bongos encourage this? After losses, he'd talk about how the players are loose and having fun and it's all good. A management philosophy I expect, positive thinking and all that. If there was any difference in Jays clubhouse behaviour compared to other teams, Bongos is part of the reason.

 

Clubhouse culture in no small part flows from the manager. By my eyes there appeared to be a change right from the point Schneider took the reins.

 

Yes I’m sure he did and why I was an advocate of getting rid of him.

 

Oh look what happened when Bongos left and Schneids came in, they played like .600 baseball.

[max silver]

This team was constructed in a manner that gave them no chance to win the world series. This is obviously just my opinion. You can only outhit your mistakes for so long.. You can't win with a ss that can't throw you out from the hole when combined with a defensively average cf flanked by 2 guys that couldn't catch a cold. People complain that the pitchers can't get anyone out. There is some truth there but how many times have you seen balls fall in that extend innings.How many times have you seen unmade plays at ss . I am not even talking about the errant throws ,just unmade plays. I don't think any pitching staff could overcome the defensive deficiencies of this team. I must also comment on the lack of effort on this team.I keep hearing about how hard they work.before the game . How about some effort during the game. Watch Cleveland play . As soon as contact is made their eyes are focused on 1st base and they run full speed to put pressure on the defense. Watch the Jays when they make contact. They jog out of the box and watch the fielder to see if they should actually to 1st. I can't count the number of games lost through lack of effort or other baserunning blunders. The only guys who get a pass here are Chapman,Merrifield, Bradley and Jansen.I think that it is no coincidence that 3 of these guys come from other organizations. It doesn't cost anything to run hard to 1st base but it costs plenty not to run.

 

The Phillies came within a few games of winning a world series with baseball's 6th worst defence by DRS. The Jays by comparison were 8th best. By OAA the Jays were the 10th best defence. The Jays defence was nowhere near as bad as you are tying to claim.

[Carlos Danger]

The Phillies came within a few games of winning a world series with baseball's 6th worst defence by DRS. The Jays by comparison were 8th best. By OAA the Jays were the 10th best defence. The Jays defence was nowhere near as bad as you are tying to claim.

 

The teams with the top 4 defensive UZR all won their divisions. Teams hitting their way to Championships is an outlier. There is no doubt the Jays need to improve run prevention to take it to the next level and be more consistent.

 

Teo was a step in the right direction. Houston won/dominated due to their run prevention, not their offense.

[max silver]

The teams with the top 4 defensive UZR all won their divisions. Teams hitting their way to Championships is an outlier. There is no doubt the Jays need to improve run prevention to take it to the next level and be more consistent.

 

Teo was a step in the right direction. Houston won/dominated due to their run prevention, not their offense.

 

The Astros didn't dominate solely based on their run prevention, they were an extremely well balanced team. They were the AL's third highest scoring offense on top of their stellar pitching and defence.

[peterkim]

basically team either has to be empty farm to get right position player to win world series champion for few years or need to build strong farm to rebuild team

Blue jays with Atkins is none of those , always trade good player for downgraded players to save money

[John_Havok]

basically team either has to be empty farm to get right position player to win world series champion for few years or need to build strong farm to rebuild team

Blue jays with Atkins is none of those , always trade good player for downgraded players to save money

 

Yup always. Literally no other transaction he has done has been anything other than trading good players for worse players to save money.

 

It’s truly amazing how the win totals and payroll have steadily climbed in the last few years despite this tactic.

Edited November 21, 2022 by John_Havok