Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Eat My Shatkins]

How close are the Jays to the luxury tax? I thought they weren't that far off.

 

Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $201,047,143

[wamco]

30m

 

White/kooch won’t be going to aaa (white isn’t even eligible. They offered arby to Richards so assume he is rp 8 with white or kooch as 7. They can’t cut Richards before sp and only pay him 1/5 of his salary like in the old days UNLESS it’s a file and trial.

 

Barring a trade, bp is full and only one open spot in rotation.

[Krylian]

Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $201,047,143

 

Ya. There's no way Rogers gets into luxury tax territory. I think they'll add one meaningful piece, but I think we'll mainly see value signings the rest of the way. Gotta make sure the big signing is the right one.

[wamco]

If you want to save 5m for

The deadline, then it’s closer to 27 than 32 remaining. Keep that in mind as well.

[Carlos Danger]

Barring a trade, bp is full and only one open spot in rotation.

 

Who is our 4th starter if only one spot open?

 

Remember the goal is to make the team better by ST, then it was last year. I hope to hell their plan is not just to plug in guys to fill the spot.

 

I wanted us to sign Montero and Bassit in addition to trades. Montero is off the table, but Bassit is still out there. Miami and AZ have pitchers to move...

[wamco]

Whatever they get back on ryu insurance won’t come until after the season so doubt that will be a factor.

 

The fine for going over is 20pct of the overage. Big deal. You are already paying 233m at that point

[wamco]

Who is our 4th starter if only one spot open?

 

Remember the goal is to make the team better by ST, then it was last year. I hope to hell their plan is not just to plug in guys to fill the spot.

 

I wanted us to sign Montero and Bassit in addition to trades. Montero is off the table, but Bassit is still out there. Miami and AZ have pitchers to move...

 

4th sp Isn’t on the roster at this time. Hopefully it’s berrios and we get a number 3 really.

[Ehjays]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/with-market-poised-to-shift-blue-jays-ready-to-move/

 

With market poised to shift, Blue Jays ready to move

 

TORONTO – For now, it’s all still in play. Nearly four weeks into the MLB off-season, all of the elite free agents are available, most mid-tier players remain unsigned and the biggest trade chips can still be had.

 

That doesn’t mean baseball operations departments around the game have been idle – far from it. But the work they’ve done so far is designed to pay off later, maybe as soon as next week, when baseball’s biggest off-season gathering resumes in-person for the first time since 2019.

 

"I would expect that there will be some news coming out of the Winter Meetings,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America Wednesday.

 

“Having said that, there is no deadline (next) Thursday and I think 10, 15 years ago there was a little bit more of a (self-imposed) deadline. Even maybe five years ago … it doesn't feel like something needs to get done by Thursday. But I would expect across the industry there will be some significant moves.”

 

Aaron Judge to the Yankees? Trea Turner to the Phillies? Justin Verlander to the Dodgers? Any of those moves would have major implications across the industry, including in Toronto. And at some point, the Blue Jays will drive their share of the action, too.

 

Their needs are clear: add a starting pitcher, maybe two; add a position player, probably an outfielder and ideally one who bats left-handed or switch hits; weigh offers on their three young catchers; and remain open to further upgrades to a bullpen that’s already added Erik Swanson (if the Blue Jays add here, it would likely be a high-end option with a subsequent trade possible to free up space).

 

In other words, there’s a lot for the Blue Jays to consider. But if nothing else, they’re prepared to spend with Atkins saying the team’s in “a great position” financially because of support from Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.

 

While the Blue Jays are actively pursuing both trades and free-agent acquisitions, Atkins said there’s now “probably more” focus on free agency compared to trade talks. Of course one call can change that and there continues to be substantial interest in catchers Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. On that front, the Blue Jays will have plenty of choices, and may be able to time things as they please.

 

Meanwhile, in free agency, players and agents can control the pace, which contributes to the slow-developing market so far.

 

"We're just looking for good players,” Atkins said. “It's not definitely a left-handed hitting right fielder to fill the role of Teoscar Hernandez. Would that work? Sure. Can we consider centre field as well? Sure. Can we think about it a completely different way, depending on the potential of trades? How do we think about run prevention? Is it just a starter? And then thinking about complementing the bullpen? Is it some other combination of run prevention? We have had a lot of dialogue about a lot of different permutations of how we can make our team better and see a lot of opportunities to do that and feel like our starting point is as good as any other teams in baseball.”

 

Granted, there’s still a lot of work ahead for a team whose splashiest off-season addition yet is bench coach Don Mattingly. In fact, the current edition of the Blue Jays is undeniably a lesser version of the team that finished the 2022 season, as Hernandez, Ross Stripling, Jackie Bradley Jr., Raimel Tapia and David Phelps have all departed. Many moves will be needed, and the same can be said for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.

 

At this point, being open-minded makes sense. Push for Verlander, as they did last winter. Explore the possibility of a deal with Cody Bellinger, who Mattingly knows from Los Angeles. Engage with Stripling and Andrew Heaney, with Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Kiermaier, with the Cardinals and the Guardians. See where it leads.

 

And sometime soon, it’ll be time to narrow the focus and shift from possibilities to concrete moves.

 

"We don't have the full picture painted on exactly how to do A, B and C to make our team better,” Atkins said. “But we do have a very clear understanding of where we could take our next strategic step.”

[Terminator]

[John_Havok]

 

Call me crazy, but…bye bye Martinez.

[Deadpool]

Call me crazy, but…bye bye Martinez.

 

Yeah, I think I move Martinez here, but I don't know about Tiedemann. He seems special.

[Captain_Obvious]

Yeah, I think I move Martinez here, but I don't know about Tiedemann. He seems special.

 

I doubt the Blue Jays target Reynolds. He is not good defensively and they seem to be focusing on players who can improve run prevention.

[Deadpool]

I doubt the Blue Jays target Reynolds. He is not good defensively and they seem to be focusing on players who can improve run prevention.

 

I doubt they get him, but they would absolutely love to have him. If Shatkins are worried about run prevention above all else to the point where they're turning down a guy who has averaged 4.1 WAR/year in his 3 full seasons, then they are doing a terrible job.

[Ehjays]

[Jonn]

I doubt the Blue Jays target Reynolds. He is not good defensively and they seem to be focusing on players who can improve run prevention.

 

He’s not a great CF. But calling him bad defensively in inaccurate. He’s more than capable of playing CF at Rogers Centre. He can play CF next year and shift to LF in 2024 for a better CF. Bottom line if a talent like that is available you go get it. Worry about the rest later. He fills a need in the OF and slots in perfectly in the lineup. Probably as the #2 hitter.

[Spanky99]

 

Wat? That's a typo.

[The Cats Ass]

He’s not a great CF. But calling him bad defensively in inaccurate. He’s more than capable of playing CF at Rogers Centre. He can play CF next year and shift to LF in 2024 for a better CF. Bottom line if a talent like that is available you go get it. Worry about the rest later. He fills a need in the OF and slots in perfectly in the lineup. Probably as the #2 hitter.

 

It's hard to say what Reynolds is defensively. 2021 and 2022 have been opposites for him. Statcast out above average stat has him at the bottom of the barrel for 2022 at 6%. But in 2021 he was one of the best at 98%. He's had good sprint speed and arm strength both years, but his outfield jump took a hit this year.

[Laika]

REYNOLDS

 

Sprint - Jump - OAA (percentiles)

 

2019 75-67-77

2020 83-31-69

2021 88-46-98

2022 75-23-6

 

The Outfield Jump rankings have trended down somewhat consistently. Sprint is pretty stable. The OAA in 2022 looks like an aberration.

But, UZR has never really liked him and DRS agreed with him being terrible in 2022.

I kind of wonder if he had a leg injury in 2022 or something like that?

 

7/10/22 Oblique

4/26/22 COVID-19

5/9/21 Lower body

9/25/19 Hamstring

7/5/19 hand

 

He turns 28 in January. Some players do start declining at 27/28. Hmmmmmm.

 

This is no small thing. His value swings MASSIVELY based on what you think of his defense.

 

I think at absolutel best MLB teams would project this guy as an average or fringe CF going forward. So forget about the 6 WAR version of Bryan Reynolds.

[Stangstag]

REYNOLDS

 

Sprint - Jump - OAA (percentiles)

 

2019 75-67-77

2020 83-31-69

2021 88-46-98

2022 75-23-6

 

The Outfield Jump rankings have trended down somewhat consistently. Sprint is pretty stable. The OAA in 2022 looks like an aberration.

But, UZR has never really liked him and DRS agreed with him being terrible in 2022.

I kind of wonder if he had a leg injury in 2022 or something like that?

 

7/10/22 Oblique

4/26/22 COVID-19

5/9/21 Lower body

9/25/19 Hamstring

7/5/19 hand

 

He turns 28 in January. Some players do start declining at 27/28. Hmmmmmm.

 

This is no small thing. His value swings MASSIVELY based on what you think of his defense.

 

I think at absolutel best MLB teams would project this guy as an average or fringe CF going forward. So forget about the 6 WAR version of Bryan Reynolds.

 

Yeah I kinda feel like he won't get traded. Pirates see his value as a 6 WAR player and most other teams likely don't. The price will be astronomical and teams won't be willing to pay.

[The_DH]

Just a thought: but is it possible that a CF for a bad team can have his defensive statistics be more in flux due to the inconsistent play in front of him? In other words if a CF has a pitching staff that can execute as planned then his jumps and such would be better? And if so, could this be the case here?

[connorp]

REYNOLDS

 

Sprint - Jump - OAA (percentiles)

 

2019 75-67-77

2020 83-31-69

2021 88-46-98

2022 75-23-6

 

The Outfield Jump rankings have trended down somewhat consistently. Sprint is pretty stable. The OAA in 2022 looks like an aberration.

But, UZR has never really liked him and DRS agreed with him being terrible in 2022.

I kind of wonder if he had a leg injury in 2022 or something like that?

 

7/10/22 Oblique

4/26/22 COVID-19

5/9/21 Lower body

9/25/19 Hamstring

7/5/19 hand

 

He turns 28 in January. Some players do start declining at 27/28. Hmmmmmm.

 

This is no small thing. His value swings MASSIVELY based on what you think of his defense.

 

I think at absolutel best MLB teams would project this guy as an average or fringe CF going forward. So forget about the 6 WAR version of Bryan Reynolds.

 

Aren’t you one of the guys talking about 33yo CF Kiermaier being a sneaky sexy signing

[Captain_Obvious]

Aren’t you one of the guys talking about 33yo CF Kiermaier being a sneaky sexy signing

Kiermaier can be a good signing based on terms. He still has a couple of 2 WAR seasons in him based on defensive ability.

[Laika]

Aren’t you one of the guys talking about 33yo CF Kiermaier being a sneaky sexy signing

 

My brother in Christ, the answer is the same as it always is. It depends how much he costs.

 

Have a blessed day

[connorp]

Kiermaier can be a good signing based on terms. He still has a couple of 2 WAR seasons in him based on defensive ability.

 

It’s a playoff team, don’t need to scrap 2 WAR wherever you can find it. All the incremental gains to get to 2 WAR over a full season don’t mean much when playoffs come and he’s an auto out. That’s if he doesn’t become a neutral defender, which wouldn’t be shocking at 34

[Laika]

It’s a playoff team, don’t need to scrap 2 WAR wherever you can find it. All the incremental gains to get to 2 WAR over a full season don’t mean much when playoffs come and he’s an auto out. That’s if he doesn’t become a neutral defender, which wouldn’t be shocking at 34

 

Was everybody on the Astros a star?

 

Pretty sure they had a few useless players. Gurriel was below replacement level and started all year. Guys like Dubon and Aledmys Diaz suck.

[Stangstag]

It’s a playoff team, don’t need to scrap 2 WAR wherever you can find it. All the incremental gains to get to 2 WAR over a full season don’t mean much when playoffs come and he’s an auto out. That’s if he doesn’t become a neutral defender, which wouldn’t be shocking at 34

 

Its clear you don't watch the MLB playoffs, because random bad bat guys like Keirmaier become heroes extremely often.

 

See: Jeremy Pena, Yuli Gurriel, Harrison Bader, Martin Maldonado, Trent Grisham, etc. And those are just from 2022

[Brownie19]

Its clear you don't watch the MLB playoffs, because random bad bat guys like Keirmaier become heroes extremely often.

 

See: Jeremy Pena, Yuli Gurriel, Harrison Bader, Martin Maldonado, Trent Grisham, etc. And those are just from 2022

 

Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Solar from 2021. I never understood connorps theory on this.

[Spanky99]

Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Solar from 2021. I never understood connorps theory on this.

 

Well first off, he's a moron.

[connorp]

Its clear you don't watch the MLB playoffs, because random bad bat guys like Keirmaier become heroes extremely often.

 

See: Jeremy Pena, Yuli Gurriel, Harrison Bader, Martin Maldonado, Trent Grisham, etc. And those are just from 2022

 

The playoffs are a crap shoot. Of course you can see Rosario become Barry Bonds, or watch Vlad go 1-25, or Degrom get lit up.

 

You can however increase your odds of success. Go into it with the best team you can.

[connorp]

That’s like putting a s***** player in a position to start a season and think when he does good 1/10 that you were smart not to sign a star