General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Pendleton]

[jaysblue]

 

Pay the man!

[G-Snarls]

That's awesome

[Key22]

The Phillies are a horrible defensive team - and they don't pass the eye test - every time I see that team they seem to kick it all over the place.

 

Didn't seem to hurt them - look where they are - give me a big offence and strikeout pitchers - you don't need no stinking defence.

[Olerud363]

replacement talent theory

 

you give positions bigger positional adjustments when the pool of talent who can play the position competently is scarce

 

it turns out that the pool of players who can handle 1B is not much smaller than the pool who can DH

 

there is a reason that people describe players who are useless defensively as "1B/DH" types

 

so it turns out that a -5 1B is as bad as someone who literally does not play defense

 

and a -4 1B who gets more playing time will accrue as much negative D value as a DH (as is the case with Vlad and JDM).

 

 

But Vlad isn't really a -4 1B in my opinion. I think that's just a 2022 blip or a measurement error. He looks good.

 

On the topic of first base defense just a reminder that John Olerud was a hall of fame talent....

 

His defense was gold glove caliber and he did win gold gloves once he stopped sitting for Jacob Brumfield and old Pat Tabler, scored above 0 a few times as a first basemen.

 

The fangraphs numbers are truly outstanding for a first basemen

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/john-olerud/1093/stats?position=1B

 

In addition to being a gold glover he was a .300++ hitter and winning (and contending) for batting titles when he wasn't getting only 350 at bats a year because Cito had to sit him for Jacob Brumfield and old Pat Tabler.

 

If Cito wasn't the manager of the Blue Jays Olerud would have been the teams all time franchise player, a George Brett kind.

[Laika]

On the topic of first base defense just a reminder that John Olerud was a hall of fame talent....

 

His defense was gold glove caliber and he did win gold gloves once he stopped sitting for Jacob Brumfield and old Pat Tabler, scored above 0 a few times as a first basemen.

 

The fangraphs numbers are truly outstanding for a first basemen

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/john-olerud/1093/stats?position=1B

 

In addition to being a gold glover he was a .300++ hitter and winning (and contending) for batting titles when he wasn't getting only 350 at bats a year because Cito had to sit him for Jacob Brumfield and old Pat Tabler.

 

If Cito wasn't the manager of the Blue Jays Olerud would have been the teams all time franchise player, a George Brett kind.

 

I dunno. At most he probably gets like 400 extra career PA if never platooned.

[Brownie19]

I dunno. At most he probably gets like 400 extra career PA if never platooned.

 

Those 400 PA's likely add enough WAR to push him over 60 for his career. He's a borderline HOFer.

[Olerud363]

I dunno. At most he probably gets like 400 extra career PA if never platooned.

 

No. Robin Ventura came up. Same age. Left handed. Olerud was a better hitter every year. Ventura got 677 plate appearances more from 90-96.

 

More importantly, many, such as yourself have started to claim that 'pressing' is a thing. Do you not think that one might press when Old Pat Tabler or Jacob Brumfield is taking your playing time? I suspect Olerud would have played a bit better not platooning, his 90-96 years, would have looked more like his 97-2003... around 677 extra at bats, and he'd be more relaxed, better rate stats, better counting stats.

 

Ventura vs Olerud plate appearances 90-97 (Ventura did not have to sit for Brumfield or old Pat Tabler)

565 421

705 541

694 537

669 679

474 453

577 581

674 469

4358 3681 defference=677

[Laika]

Those 400 PA's likely add enough WAR to push him over 60 for his career. He's a borderline HOFer.

 

No. Robin Ventura came up. Same age. Left handed. Olerud was a better hitter every year. Ventura got 677 plate appearances more from 90-96.

 

More importantly, many, such as yourself have started to claim that 'pressing' is a thing. Do you not think that one might press when Old Pat Tabler or Jacob Brumfield is taking your playing time? I suspect Olerud would have played a bit better not platooning, his 90-96 years, would have looked more like his 97-2003... around 677 extra at bats, and he'd be more relaxed, better rate stats, better counting stats.

 

Ventura vs Olerud plate appearances 90-97 (Ventura did not have to sit for Brumfield or old Pat Tabler)

565 421

705 541

694 537

669 679

474 453

577 581

674 469

4358 3681 defference=677

 

Even if it is 600 extra PA he just goes from a fringe HOF to a fringe HOF. Nothing fundamentally changes.

 

And many/most of his extra PA would have come against LHP too so they would be below average PA for him. wRC+ in his career was only 101 against leftties.

 

So we are talking about John Olerud with 57 career WAR and 255 career homers vs. John Olerud with 60 career WAR and 270 career homers. Something like that.

 

Cito probably did not ruin his legacy.

[Olerud363]

Even if it is 600 extra PA he just goes from a fringe HOF to a fringe HOF. Nothing fundamentally changes.

 

And many/most of his extra PA would have come against LHP too so they would be below average PA for him. wRC+ in his career was only 101 against leftties.

 

So we are talking about John Olerud with 57 career WAR and 255 career homers vs. John Olerud with 60 career WAR and 270 career homers. Something like that.

 

Cito probably did not ruin his legacy.

 

He hit .325 .425 .501 in 3 years full time as a Met facing lefties and righties, not sure of his splits with the Mets, but was probably hitting both lefties and righties better those years.

 

There is a guy called Tom Robson who passed away a year ago, but wrote a hitting book, and Olerud wrote the forward. Olerud politely explains that his numbers were down in Toronto 94-96 because they tried to change his approach.

 

So

 

600 extra at bats

Potentially better numbers because not pressing to hold off Jacob Brumfield and old PT

Potentially better numbers if he didn't have the 'pull dat ball' coach's messing with his swing.

Potentially he spends his whole career with Toronto

 

So even with all that say it's 62 WAR or something... it's not just the WAR, but the narrative and the counting stats.

 

The other way to look at is this. What if you re-ordered his season so his best 5 were consecutive and instead of getting platooned he got an injury? He'd have more of a Don Mattingly narrative, but better numbers.

[Laika]

He hit .325 .425 .501 in 3 years full time as a Met facing lefties and righties, not sure of his splits with the Mets, but was probably hitting both lefties and righties better those years.

 

There is a guy called Tom Robson who passed away a year ago, but wrote a hitting book, and Olerud wrote the forward. Olerud politely explains that his numbers were down in Toronto 94-96 because they tried to change his approach.

 

So

 

600 extra at bats

Potentially better numbers because not pressing to hold off Jacob Brumfield and old PT

Potentially better numbers if he didn't have the 'pull dat ball' coach's messing with his swing.

Potentially he spends his whole career with Toronto

 

So even with all that say it's 62 WAR or something... it's not just the WAR, but the narrative and the counting stats.

 

The other way to look at is this. What if you re-ordered his season so his best 5 were consecutive and instead of getting platooned he got an injury? He'd have more of a Don Mattingly narrative, but better numbers.

 

tooooooooooooo manyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy assuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumptionssssssssssssssssssssssssss

[wamco]

I was gonna say the same thing. He got .7 pct of vote when eligible in 2011. That year, the top 10 vote getters eventually got in HOF.

 

In 2012, 8 of the top 10-same

In 2013, 9 of the top 10 and also clemens, bonds and schilling joined as well.

 

Just wouldn’t have stayed on long enough to get in.

Tough time to be eligible.

[wamco]

And if my aunt had nuts, we’d call her my uncle

[Olerud363]

tooooooooooooo manyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy assuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumptionssssssssssssssssssssssssss

 

Don Mattingly did way better than Olerud in hall of fame voting. Like on the ballot for 15 years. 15% of vote some years despite having 17 less career WAR and an inferior top 5 seasons.

 

Some very modest assumptions. 1) Olerud gets more playing time 2) hit's 2 % better because of better hitting tips, more relaxed, more confidence. You give him more playing time, and just assume he hits a bit better and his career looks way, way better, more like 12 years of a Don Mattingly that takes walks.

 

Olerud career reconstructed, without platooning, worry about Brumfield, and better hitting tips (2% boost)

 

1990 .270 21 77

1991 .265 23 80

1992 .290 22 90

1993 .370 26 121

1994 .303 14 70

1995 .300 10 75

1996 .290 28 100

1997 .300 24 110

1998 .367 24 105

1999 .300 20 99

2000 .290 15 110

2001 .302 21 95

2002 .300 21 100

[Olerud363]

And if my aunt had nuts, we’d call her my uncle

 

That's a huge change. More like your Aunt wants to be on the town board but loses the vote by a huge margin.

 

She has been a good member of the community but always had bosses who didn't like her and never got visibility.

 

But in retrospect she had a lot of talent, and maybe if you did it over, some very slight differences would have made her more visible over the years and she would have made the town board in a different world.

[Terminator]

And if my aunt had nuts, we’d call her my uncle

 

Wow does that ever remind me of a story. Let's just say the year was 1982, the location was off St Laurent Blvd in Montreal and it involved one veeeeeerrrry close call and we'll leave it at that. lmao

 

But anyway, have you guys ever heard the theory that there's an alternate universe out there where Matt Stairs made the Hall of Fame?

[wamco]

I heard olerud f***ed Citos wife. And yes, he kept the helmet on as he is a very vigorous lover. Let’s just say his bat isn’t the only thing that swings lefty.

[Laika]

Don Mattingly did way better than Olerud in hall of fame voting. Like on the ballot for 15 years. 15% of vote some years despite having 17 less career WAR and an inferior top 5 seasons.

 

Some very modest assumptions. 1) Olerud gets more playing time 2) hit's 2 % better because of better hitting tips, more relaxed, more confidence. You give him more playing time, and just assume he hits a bit better and his career looks way, way better, more like 12 years of a Don Mattingly that takes walks.

 

Olerud career reconstructed, without platooning, worry about Brumfield, and better hitting tips (2% boost)

 

1990 .270 21 77

1991 .265 23 80

1992 .290 22 90

1993 .370 26 121

1994 .303 14 70

1995 .300 10 75

1996 .290 28 100

1997 .300 24 110

1998 .367 24 105

1999 .300 20 99

2000 .290 15 110

2001 .302 21 95

2002 .300 21 100

 

Mattingly and Olerud's gap in HoF recognition has very little to do with how often they played or their actual merit and basically everything to do with batting average and PRODUKSHUN

 

Mattingly hit .300+ in 7 seasons, 6 of them being consecutive and in his prime. He also hit 30+ HR a few times and had some godly RBI seasons.

 

Olerud only hit .300 four times and ended up under .300 for his career. He was not capable of hitting 30+ HR. He limped over 100 RBI a few times. Even if he played 162 games every year of his prime he probably would never have eclipsed 30 dingers.

 

Basically, people just did not care about OBP during Olerud's career and not enough during his HoF candidacy period. It's unfortunate but that's the whole story. OBP ignorance.

 

Leave Cito alone.

[Olerud363]

Wow does that ever remind me of a story. Let's just say the year was 1982, the location was off St Laurent Blvd in Montreal and it involved one veeeeeerrrry close call and we'll leave it at that. lmao

 

But anyway, have you guys ever heard the theory that there's an alternate universe out there where Matt Stairs made the Hall of Fame?

 

Matt Stairs peaked at 3 WAR. Second best season was 1.8. Olerud had two 8 WAR seasons.

 

The Olerud thing is a fun conversation because he has more WAR then a few hall of famers, and better peak seasons than many hall of famers.

 

It's also fun because his bad season, where he got benched for Jacob Brumfield is better per game then Matt Stair's best season

[Laika]

Matt Stairs slander is a punishable offense on this message board

 

Stairsy played basically his entire career after his physical prime. In the alternate universe where he is a Hall of Famer he comes up in 1992 or 1993 and sticks as a full time player, benefits from MLB coaching, figures a bunch of stuff out early, and has some legendary Expos seasons with 40+ bombs. So he's at like 30 WAR before even beginning the Matt Stairs career from 29 onward that we all know and love. And then maybe he benefits from voters digging his 600 career HR or something like that even though he only has 48 career WAR and he sneaks into the Hall.

[Olerud363]

Leave Cito alone.

 

 

Never. He ruined the great mid 90s Jays team of young left handed super stars. We complain about the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays having no left handed hitters. The 1996 Blue Jays had 3, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado and John Olerud. Cito platooned two of them with the ghost of Ruben Sierra and Jacob Brumfield, and Delgado sometimes sat for Juan Samuel.

 

It was insane. All three proved to be able to handle 700 PAs regularly and hit much better in 700 PAs then they did in 500.

 

But they were young people say... Cito needed to teach hitting lessons... no. Bo and Vladdy are handling things at the same age.

 

Olerud's 1998, Green's 2001... very painful. Delgado hitting 470 homeruns when he left 50 in Syracuse... painful. Especially seeing modern baseball where good prospects do 2 levels a year, are brought up young, and allowed to work through slumps, obesity and ground ball problems.

[Olerud363]

Matt Stairs slander is a punishable offense on this message board

 

Stairsy played basically his entire career after his physical prime. In the alternate universe where he is a Hall of Famer he comes up in 1992 or 1993 and sticks as a full time player, benefits from MLB coaching, figures a bunch of stuff out early, and has some legendary Expos seasons with 40+ bombs. So he's at like 30 WAR before even beginning the Matt Stairs career from 29 onward that we all know and love. And then maybe he benefits from voters digging his 600 career HR or something like that even though he only has 48 career WAR and he sneaks into the Hall.

 

 

The 80s into the 90s was weird as s*** and guys routinely lost years of their career for little reason.

 

Even Delgado had a super slow progression and wasn't allowed to work through slumps when he did arrive. Look at Delgados 1992 and 93. Spent the entire year raking at a single level, when he would have done 2 levels a year with a modern progression schedule.

 

Wade Boggs did not have his first full season until age 25. Crazy. Spent years in the minors.

 

Then Griffey jr was handed a full time job at 19. Ruben Sierra at 20 I think. It was just weirdly inconsistent.

 

Matt Stairs. I think I remember Bill James going ballistic about him, like he should be playing. This was in the early 90s.

[Terminator]

Matt Stairs slander is a punishable offense on this message board

 

Stairsy played basically his entire career after his physical prime. In the alternate universe where he is a Hall of Famer he comes up in 1992 or 1993 and sticks as a full time player, benefits from MLB coaching, figures a bunch of stuff out early, and has some legendary Expos seasons with 40+ bombs. So he's at like 30 WAR before even beginning the Matt Stairs career from 29 onward that we all know and love. And then maybe he benefits from voters digging his 600 career HR or something like that even though he only has 48 career WAR and he sneaks into the Hall.

 

That's basically the theory but on top of it he was mostly a 2B and 3B in the minors prior to his debut. He even played some SS. So on Earth 2 Matt Stairs does all of the above only he does so as mostly a 2B during his 20s. That might push the WAR total up to 60 and he wouldn't need the 600 homers to get him in.

[Jimcanuck]

This is truly the silly season.

[wamco]

Despite what WAR will tell you, I’m more upset Delgado didn’t get in and got the shaft even more as he has more of what traditional HOF numbers look like.

 

But ya. Olerud PLUS 5m for Robert person Was horrible.

[Terminator]

This is truly the silly season.

 

Wow who called the fun police

[bendera3]

I'm starting to think that Olerud363 is actually John Olerud. If that is the case I want to personally thank him. So a few years ago there was a company that would collect late 80s and early 90s baseball cards (essentially worthless ones) and repack them into packs of like 20 to sell at Dollar Tree stores. Once you got I believe 3 pack wrappers you could mail it in and they would send you a signed card. I would ask politely for a Blue Jay autograph and after I got my Garth Iorg autographed card I got one of John Olerud that apparently he had made specifically for mail in autograph requests. I think that's worth at least 3 WAR towards his HOF career.

[Ryu In My House]

Matt Stairs peaked at 3 WAR. Second best season was 1.8. Olerud had two 8 WAR seasons.

 

The Olerud thing is a fun conversation because he has more WAR then a few hall of famers, and better peak seasons than many hall of famers.

 

It's also fun because his bad season, where he got benched for Jacob Brumfield is better per game then Matt Stair's best season

 

John Olerud > Harold Baines

[Terminator]

John Olerud > Harold Baines

 

Such a joke Baines got in lol

 

119 career wRC+ with most of his games at DH.

[connorp]

And if my aunt had nuts, we’d call her my uncle

 

I think used this expression last month and I believe someone correctly pointed out that it’s not the case anymore. I’m not sure I’ll use it again because it’s no longer true