General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Solaxys]

I think Vlad has some serious character issues. Becoming less of a clown would be a good first step in the right direction.

 

He is just immature and very entitled, which you can understand given his heritage and pseudo-stardom since he was like 5.

 

Doesn't understand the consequences of his actions until they are in his face, at which point, he goes on IG or w.e and puts up a message akin to "haters will be haters; God is on my side and so I choose to believe in love" or some nonsense.

 

That's where his celebration comes from, post hitting homeruns.

His 'shuffle-step' against Tatis' because he was constantly being compared to Tatis in 2019/2020 (they came up relatively at the same time) where Tatis had great seasons and he didn't.

His 'shh-ing' after 3B is to basically silence all the baseball critics who said he wasn't as good as projected after a mediocre first two seasons.

Both of these started in 2021 (not 2019/2020).

 

Checking 1B (he started this dumb trend) for check-swings, running to 1B before strikes/balls are called etc. are also pretty annoying

 

Only good thing about him is he understands that he is not going to simply get by and has shown that he has the work ethic (pre-2021) to excel.

He also understood that at the end of 2021 that he needed to work on his endurance.

I have no idea what he did in the offseason of 21/22, but his answer to the endurance issue is to jog to 1B/no exertion unless absolutely necessary - aka, the Bryce Harper approach. Sure pitchers might have figured out some thing about him, but I still maintain dude just got lazy and didn't build on his 2021, rather defaulted back to 2019/2020.

 

Might be a generational talent but his attitude is just super worrisome for long-term. Then again, he is 23, maybe he will 'grow up' but sooner than later pls.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Solaxys

[Jimcanuck]

Is the relationship extremely strong? No. It's baseball. There are different ways to be good. You can swing a lot and be very good. You can be passive and be below average at hitting.

 

BUT it is clear that the uber-elite hitters swing less. And it is clear that if you swing a lot it's hard to be an uber-elite hitter.

 

That's because swinging is bad.

 

This is just qualified hitters in 2022 by the way. Feel free to expand the sample.

 

I think it's strong. Get 15 more wRC+ by reducing swing rate from 60% to 45%. That's a lot.

[Laika]

I think it's strong. Get 15 more wRC+ by reducing swing rate from 60% to 45%. That's a lot.

 

It's a very loose fit though

[wilko]

Zimmer or Moreno on the post season roster?

 

Zimmer

[Laika]

Yeah Zimmer

[John_Havok]

Zimmer or Moreno on the post season roster?

 

100% Zimmer. Playoff baseball is all about the short game, not the long game. Putting key 1 or 2 dimensional players into very specific situations happens all the time in short series.

 

Zimmer is an excellent baserunner and probably the best outfield defender on the team. As long as all they use him for is pinch running and OF defense late in games he has a ton of value.

[keggy]

Realistically we can only roster two of Zimmer, Tapia, and Bradley.

[G-Snarls]

Realistically we can only roster two of Zimmer, Tapia, and Bradley.

 

Thank God

[jaysblue]

I would go with Zimmer and JBJ over Tapia.

[Jimcanuck]

It's a very loose fit though

 

Never going to get a good correlation on these types of things. Strength of concrete cylinders yes, human sports no.

 

OK to say that on average +1 wRC+ for every -1 swing%.

[Solaxys]

Looks like a rest (hangover) day for NYY cause the lineup is something.

 

Judge, Oswaldo, JD, Peraza, Bader, Marwin, Higgy, Locastro, Hicks

 

[glory]

I'd be surprised if all of Tapia, JBJ, and Zimmer are not on the playoff roster. JBJ has vetrin presents so his spot is likely set, and the club obviously feels Tapia is the greatest below replacement level player in history given his playing time all season, so I doubt that changes in October. Zimmer is the one likely on the bubble if they had to subtract one of those 3, but he's also probably best suited on a playoff roster as a pinch runner/defensive replacement given he's great at both of those things. Ultimately I think all 3 will get in even if everyone's healthy.

 

Tapia is starting at least one of the WC games. I don't know how, or why, but he will.

[Daniel Labude]

I'd be surprised if all of Tapia, JBJ, and Zimmer are not on the playoff roster. JBJ has vetrin presents so his spot is likely set, and the club obviously feels Tapia is the greatest below replacement level player in history given his playing time all season, so I doubt that changes in October. Zimmer is the one likely on the bubble if they had to subtract one of those 3, but he's also probably best suited on a playoff roster as a pinch runner/defensive replacement given he's great at both of those things. Ultimately I think all 3 will get in even if everyone's healthy.

 

Tapia is starting at least one of the WC games. I don't know how, or why, but he will.

 

If Gurriel is back, Moreno will probably be taken instead of Zimmer

[Laika]

Never going to get a good correlation on these types of things. Strength of concrete cylinders yes, human sports no.

 

OK to say that on average +1 wRC+ for every -1 swing%.

 

I redid it going back 5 years, and using all players with 1000+ PA across those 5 years. The effect seems a bit stronger even.

 

And with Vlad of course we are more concerned with the OUTLIERS and that makes it even more obvious that swinging less is great. The truly elite hitters ALL swing seldom. There was only ONE qualified hitter with a wRC+ over 140 who swung 50% or more (Vlad is at like 49% this year and was 47% prior years).

 

Bo Bichette with his 55% swing rate is kind of handicapped. He can be good but not elite.

 

[Grant77]

I redid it going back 5 years, and using all players with 1000+ PA across those 5 years. The effect seems a bit stronger even.

 

And with Vlad of course we are more concerned with the OUTLIERS and that makes it even more obvious that swinging less is great. The truly elite hitters ALL swing seldom. There was only ONE qualified hitter with a wRC+ over 140 who swung 50% or more (Vlad is at like 49% this year and was 47% prior years).

 

Bo Bichette with his 55% swing rate is kind of handicapped. He can be good but not elite.

 

 

Is swing% something that drops throughout a career or is it pretty stable? Both of these guys are very young.

[Laika]

Is swing% something that drops throughout a career or is it pretty stable? Both of these guys are very young.

 

Dunno if anyone has put that stat specifically on an aging curve but I would assume it gets better. BB% gets better with age, we know that... hard to trend up in walks without swinging less.

[Masterbather]

If Gurriel is back, Moreno will probably be taken instead of Zimmer

I was just thinking that Moreno is pretty fast, Zimmer is obviously faster but he's so incredibly one-dimensional. Also we haven't seen him steal much this year, fast doesn't always mean you're a great base stealer. We have Bradley as a premium defensive outfielder who's also fairly one dimensional but not even as bad as Zimmer. Moreno can hit, at the very least he can put the bat on the ball and move guys over, hit and run with and it gives us a bit more flexibility considering we will probably be using both Jansen and Kirk in our starting lineup.

[Omar]

I redid it going back 5 years, and using all players with 1000+ PA across those 5 years. The effect seems a bit stronger even.

 

And with Vlad of course we are more concerned with the OUTLIERS and that makes it even more obvious that swinging less is great. The truly elite hitters ALL swing seldom. There was only ONE qualified hitter with a wRC+ over 140 who swung 50% or more (Vlad is at like 49% this year and was 47% prior years).

 

Bo Bichette with his 55% swing rate is kind of handicapped. He can be good but not elite.

 

 

The R squared value here makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow.

[Daniel Labude]

I redid it going back 5 years, and using all players with 1000+ PA across those 5 years. The effect seems a bit stronger even.

 

And with Vlad of course we are more concerned with the OUTLIERS and that makes it even more obvious that swinging less is great. The truly elite hitters ALL swing seldom. There was only ONE qualified hitter with a wRC+ over 140 who swung 50% or more (Vlad is at like 49% this year and was 47% prior years).

 

Bo Bichette with his 55% swing rate is kind of handicapped. He can be good but not elite.

 

 

[Jimcanuck]

I redid it going back 5 years, and using all players with 1000+ PA across those 5 years. The effect seems a bit stronger even.

 

And with Vlad of course we are more concerned with the OUTLIERS and that makes it even more obvious that swinging less is great. The truly elite hitters ALL swing seldom. There was only ONE qualified hitter with a wRC+ over 140 who swung 50% or more (Vlad is at like 49% this year and was 47% prior years).

 

Bo Bichette with his 55% swing rate is kind of handicapped. He can be good but not elite.

 

Nice work.... looks to me like a curve fit (in lieu of a trendline) would show a more pronounced effect, with the left end curving up.

[The Cats Ass]

I think the smart move this off-season is to trade Teoscar for a couple SP prospects and sign Nimmo. Plug him in CF, move Springer to RF. Gives us a high OBP LHB.

[Stangstag]

I think the smart move this off-season is to trade Teoscar for a couple SP prospects and sign Nimmo. Plug him in CF, move Springer to RF. Gives us a high OBP LHB.

 

I like it

[Captain_Obvious]

I think the smart move this off-season is to trade Teoscar for a couple SP prospects and sign Nimmo. Plug him in CF, move Springer to RF. Gives us a high OBP LHB.

 

I like it

 

I don't think Teoscar fetches much.

[mellowgold]

Tonight sucked but at least the Rays lost.

[Stangstag]

Tonight sucked but at least the Rays lost.

 

They have an extra game tomorrow tho… could be within 1 game if they win.

[mellowgold]

They have an extra game tomorrow tho… could be within 1 game if they win.

 

Yeah but at least we'll be going into the last two series in the driver's seat.

[Stangstag]

Magic number down to 1. Exciting times.

 

Hoping they can finish the season strong. I want playoff baseball at the dome next Friday!

[Olerud363]

The R squared value here makes me raise a Spockian eyebrow.

 

On one hand I totally agree with the point. Vlad swings less, walks 110 times, strikes out 160 and what happens? Is he better? I think so.

 

On the other hand what does the graph look like for the 5 year period from 2009 to 2014 or so when Miguel Cabrera put up 180 wRC+ with a 50% swing rate? One or two points changes the plot completely. To a human it looks good because Trout and Judge and Soto I guess are the outlier points, but would look different if it was Pujols and Cabrera.

 

FYI Pujols didn't have a crazy high swing rate actually, it was low earlier in his career and went up as he got old and bad.

Cabrera put up great seasons with a 50% swing rate.

Vlad Sr had a 59% swing rate or something, lol.

A-rod low to mid 40s.

 

Watching games it seems Vlad isn't a great bad ball hitter. Vlad is not his Dad and I don't see him often reach for a terrible pitch way outside and slam a line drive the other way. So for Vlad going the 110 walk 160 k route (if that is possible) may be better. As Trout and Judge show one can still hit .300 this way.

[Olerud363]

I'm still hoping Vlad's career continues to roughly follow Gary Shefield's. Sheffield had a way lower k-rate but it was a different time.

 

Shefield was a super prospect coming up at 19, struggle worse than Vlad and was traded young, then broke out at 23 having a super-season like Vlad's 22 going for a triple crown (ended up with a batting title instead of homerun title)

 

Then in 1993 he roughly had a season comparable to Vlad's 2022. Mediocre compared to his breakout year and all kinds of players passed him to get the headlines (Bonds, Griffey, Olerud, Gallaraga won the batting titles with .400 chases, Gwynn resergence, Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzales).

 

Then he was injured a bit and traded again, and in the 90s all kinds of other guys were becoming stars.

 

But Shefield doubled and even tripled his walk rate, going from 40 walks in 92, to 140 in 96 and settled as a 100 walk guy with a bunch of good years.

 

Hopefully that happens to Vlad, regains patience, rejoins the elites.

[Laika]

One more visual

 

This is since 2002 (beginning of swing data) and everyone with 1000+ PA.

So this ignores cup of coffee players but catches every regular in the last two decades. n = 1015

 

 

Yes, if you ignore the positive outliers in the upper left the visual trend is not very strong. You can still see the slope of the mass though and perhaps better in this one than the previous ones.

 

But we probably should NOT ignore the upper left outliers because that is the hope for Vlad, right? He had a 166 wRC+ last year. He has the talent to have a career wRC+ over 150. It will never happen if he is swinging close to 50% of the time though. In my opinion. In 2021 he was closer to 47%. As he ages, with discipline and practice, he might be able to improve and get to 45% or less? Maybe?

 

I am not trying to prove anything here. This is just a visual. Ignore the trendline, it's just thrown on there. As far as I am aware this relationship (swinging is generally bad) is well documented already.

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/maybe-hitters-should-just-stop-swinging/

 

Note also that zone% has trended down consistently since 2002. This means that swinging TODAY is probably even worse than it was two decades ago.

The guys who swung a lot and were still good would perhaps have different careers in this era. Would Vlad Sr. be as good in this age?

 

Maybe the model for Vlad Jr. should be more Manny Ramirez than Miguel Cabrera???