General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

Fine by me. If the price is gonna be astronomical anyways, why not just ride out his control until he’s a free agent

 

This is an oxymoron? Reads that way, i dunno.

[Daniel Labude]

Like you have to be a f***ing moron to think that sinker approach is the problem

 

run production: 2021, 2022

 

4-Seamers: +32, +7

Sliders: +10, -3

Sinkers: +7, +3

Changeup: +2, -4

 

this is black and white data, right there on statcast

 

f*** you you f***ing twerp and your "so no, your point is incorrect" garbage shove that s*** directly up your ass and twist it around until it hurts you fartface bike licker

 

Wow...a moderator with a crybaby complex...shocker

 

The concept of the swing is how to attack a pitch to not hit ground balls. Not swinging at sliders was not part of what was discussed in the article. But thanks for playing the moronic take game. Yes he he needs to stop swinging at sliders low and away, but the concept of the article and what they discussed with the coach was making better contact and punishing low pitches, particularly sinkers and pitches in

 

Thanks for showing your true colors when you dont understand the concept and can't have a discussion.

 

Crying about a comment when you 1 misread it and 2 move the goalposts to a different concept then what the article was referencing shows true issues lol

[Daniel Labude]

10 x 35M for Vlad?

 

Seems a little high to me

 

10/300M seems like what it would take at this stage

[BigCecil]

10/300M seems like what it would take at this stage

 

I would not do that deal. Riley is only 25...adds more value on D and got 10/210 M. 145 wRC+ and a 5 WAR player already in '22. I don't know why so many think he is worth a 9M premium to that per yr because he can really smoke a ground ball (facetious).

 

With Vlads body type and the 3 WAR season he has had exposing more possible risk, that makes little sense to me. I'd rather sell if we have to as we near FA.

[goldbug103]

10/300M seems like what it would take at this stage

 

I kind of agree with this post. No reason to spend on a 1st baseman that struggles to hit balls out of the infield and that hits a league leading GIDP. Conversely, Vlad does seem like a good teammate (puts team first). 10/200 with incentives seems better

[Laika]

Wow...a moderator with a crybaby complex...shocker

 

The concept of the swing is how to attack a pitch to not hit ground balls. Not swinging at sliders was not part of what was discussed in the article. But thanks for playing the moronic take game. Yes he he needs to stop swinging at sliders low and away, but the concept of the article and what they discussed with the coach was making better contact and punishing low pitches, particularly sinkers and pitches in

 

Thanks for showing your true colors when you dont understand the concept and can't have a discussion.

 

Crying about a comment when you 1 misread it and 2 move the goalposts to a different concept then what the article was referencing shows true issues lol

 

Look, nothing was misunderstood. No goalposts were moved.

 

It's patently obvious that Vlad is getting destroyed by breaking balls down and away

 

The hitting coach decided to talk in that article about.... sinkers.... and down and in pitches....

 

He looks like a moron. It is what it is.

[Daniel Labude]

I would not do that deal. Riley is only 25...adds more value on D and got 10/210 M. 145 wRC+ and a 5 WAR player already in '22. I don't know why so many think he is worth a 9M premium to that per yr because he can really smoke a ground ball (facetious).

 

With Vlads body type and the 3 WAR season he has had exposing more possible risk, that makes little sense to me. I'd rather sell if we have to as we near FA.

 

I kind of agree with this post. No reason to spend on a 1st baseman that struggles to hit balls out of the infield and that hits a league leading GIDP. Conversely, Vlad does seem like a good teammate (puts team first). 10/200 with incentives seems better

 

I think the current good deal value people have based on this season and what it actually would take are far apart. He is 23, was the best hitter in baseball last year and the 10th youngest ever to 100 HRs...its taking 30M a year unless he wants to take a super team friendly deal. Think of it like Soto...he isnt going to get 20M a year because of his play this season being a 3 WAR player...neither will Vlad

 

It's also definitely worth 30M/year. In 10 years, 30M will be the equivalent of 20M. Definitely worth a floor of 30 HR/30 double, .280 hitter with an .830 OPS and 8 steals (in less than half the season). He is top hitter as one of the youngest players in the league...back up the truck

 

Also, I do believe you can't use Riley as a base because everyone in ATL took huge discounts basically

[MikeM3]

What are Vlad's career stats outside of our time in the minor league park.

[Grant77]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

[John_Havok]

What are Vlad's career stats outside of our time in the minor league park.

 

Not sure that matters given he sucked in 2020 as well playing out of a minor league park.

[Jimcanuck]

Guess Vladdy's weight at 30 yrs old.

 

I'll start - 320 lbs

[glory]

Vlad is 23 and has a 133 wRC+ in a "down" year. Now if you think 2022 is closer to what he's going to be in his prime, and that 2021 was more of a fluke due to circumstances (minor league stadiums for 4 months), then you can adjust contract expectations from there, but his ceiling appears to be an MVP level offensive player. I say go for the reasonable long term deal (10-12 years) if it's available and put an opt out in there in year 6 or 7 (so he would have to opt out around age 30).

[Olerud363]

What are Vlad's career stats outside of our time in the minor league park.

 

He has hit relatively poorly at Rogers center, great at Dunedin and Sahlen field.

 

The dimensions of those stadiums are no different that major league parks. And in fact Buffalo has dimensions close to Progressive Field, I believe it was set up when they were associated with Cleveland.

 

Dunedin may be 10 feet closer in right center, but just as far to left as Rogers Center.

 

Florida is suppose to be a tough place for hitters because of humidity. I don't think Buffalo is suppose to be a great hitters park.

 

Still, he creamed it in Sahlen and Dunnedin, just as he creamed it in those parks as a minor leaguer.

 

If we are going to start accepting that there is such a thing as 'pressing' and weird mental states hitters get in, then I'd say Vlad's performance in minor league parks is mental, nothing to do with the park dimensions or anything.

 

Maybe he likes it with 5000 to 15,000 seats and a low key vibe.

[wilko]

Guess Vladdy's weight at 30 yrs old.

 

I'll start - 320 lbs

 

Dmitri Young 2.0?

[jaysblue]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

Yeah if you can lock him up anywhere between 250-300M over 10 years, it's a no brainer. He's the face of the franchise. He definitely can put together a couple of Aaron Judge type seasons with the bat.

[jaysblue]

Dmitri Young 2.0?

 

Vlad is a lot better than Dmitri Young ever was. I think Prince Fielder 2.0 but lets hope Vlad's career is longer.

[Stangstag]

I would not do that deal. Riley is only 25...adds more value on D and got 10/210 M. 145 wRC+ and a 5 WAR player already in '22. I don't know why so many think he is worth a 9M premium to that per yr because he can really smoke a ground ball (facetious).

 

With Vlads body type and the 3 WAR season he has had exposing more possible risk, that makes little sense to me. I'd rather sell if we have to as we near FA.

 

Have to think Vlad is still way overhyped because of his name and the fact he was a huge prospect. He 100% has not proven he is worth 300 million at this point. It would be a much safer play to wait things out if he wants more than 250 million. I feel the Riley contract is comparable to what Vlad is worth. Somewhere between 200-250.

 

There’s no problem with waiting until he’s a free agent to get a better sense of his value.

 

That said, this offseason is probably the best time to extend him if you think he’s likely to repeat his 2021 for several seasons over the next 10 years.

[Stangstag]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

Then you pass IMO. Not worth the risk/reward

[Laika]

It's weird to say it but a Vlad extension almost has more to do with the person than the stats.

 

Like yes - on paper, just looking at WAR record and projections, he's not a superstar worthy of a mega deal.

 

But he has shown his upside on the field.

 

So the extension is basically about him as a person. His mental side. There can be "upside" for the team on a big money extension if they bet on him as a personality and he proves them right, through hard work and adjustments and all that stuff.

 

If you WAIT for him to become the bona fide superstar worth every dollar then the team probably has no upside on the contract.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Laika

[G-Snarls]

Have to think Vlad is still way overhyped because of his name and the fact he was a huge prospect. He 100% has not proven he is worth 300 million at this point. It would be a much safer play to wait things out if he wants more than 250 million. I feel the Riley contract is comparable to what Vlad is worth. Somewhere between 200-250.

 

There’s no problem with waiting until he’s a free agent to get a better sense of his value.

 

That said, this offseason is probably the best time to extend him if you think he’s likely to repeat his 2021 for several seasons over the next 10 years.

 

I think eveyone in baseball still expects him to hit 2021 levels multiple times in the future.

[Omar]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

Exactly! ^^^^^

 

10/$350M Pay him you cheap bastards!

[Solaxys]

[Solaxys]

We have three cornerstones right now --> Vlad/Bo/Manoah

 

Who do you lock up/who can you build a championship team around?

 

Vlad - generational hitter with one MVP season (his 2019/2020/2022 (1386 PAs) are extremely similar while his MVP season (698 PAs) is the outlier), improving his 1B defense and easily en route to a gold glove, could be the face of the franchise, and obviously the whole Canadian/Expo heritage

Bo - consistent 120 wRC+ player, and en route to another 5 WAR season (ZiPS projections; Steamer has him at 4.8), improving his defense every year steadily, incredible work ethic (has been spending more time with Chappy to improve his throwing), philanthropist/no-BS personality, can be a team-leader in the future

Manoah - possibly our ace or #2 for the future, handles pressure/spotlight incredibly well, always team first, imitates Verlander's style of pitching and always striving to improve his repertoire, incredible personality to boot (you either love him or you hate him, no in between)

 

Genuinely can't see an instance where we'll have the payroll flexibility to lock up all 3.

Manoah pre-arb for 2 more years; Bo is heading into ARB1 next year; Vlad is heading into ARB 2.

[Daniel Labude]

We have three cornerstones right now --> Vlad/Bo/Manoah

 

Who do you lock up/who can you build a championship team around?

 

Vlad - generational hitter with one MVP season (his 2019/2020/2022 (1386 PAs) are extremely similar while his MVP season (698 PAs) is the outlier), improving his 1B defense and easily en route to a gold glove, could be the face of the franchise, and obviously the whole Canadian/Expo heritage

Bo - consistent 120 wRC+ player, and en route to another 5 WAR season (ZiPS projections; Steamer has him at 4.8), improving his defense every year steadily, incredible work ethic (has been spending more time with Chappy to improve his throwing), philanthropist/no-BS personality, can be a team-leader in the future

Manoah - possibly our ace or #2 for the future, handles pressure/spotlight incredibly well, always team first, imitates Verlander's style of pitching and always striving to improve his repertoire, incredible personality to boot (you either love him or you hate him, no in between)

 

Genuinely can't see an instance where we'll have the payroll flexibility to lock up all 3.

 

Manoah pre-arb for 2 more years; Bo is heading into ARB1 next year; Vlad is heading into ARB 2.

 

Give me all 3

 

Vlad 10/250M

Bo 10/210M

Manoah 7/150M

[JFD]

We have three cornerstones right now --> Vlad/Bo/Manoah

 

Psh... unreal

 

Kirk >

[Solaxys]

Give me all 3

 

Vlad 10/250M

Bo 10/210M

Manoah 7/150M

 

That's 70M/y (60 if you take their current salaries out) added to the payroll for 7 yrs!

 

In 2024, we'll need two starters, a 3B, a CF, and one corner OF (not many internal candidates ready for MLB in those positions; Tiedemann maybe will make an appearance if he continues to progress well; maybe White turns a corner); expecting a lot of relief pitchers internally coming up.

Kinda need some monetary flexibility to fill the gaps, esp with contracts for Gaus/Springer/Berrios (60+M among themselves) until 2026.

[Masterbather]

I need to see another season from Vladdy before ever considering paying him the kind of money it will take to lock him up. Not only am I not sure what version of him we are getting going forward, but he still hasn't shown the kind of commitment to his body that I would like to see.

 

I would also at least explore what the trade market for him would look like.

[keggy]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

There are a lot of players with comparable offensive production at a young age who never became Hall of Famers.

 

The closest thing to a surefire Hall of Famer at age 23 is Soto (and Trout before that). Guerrero is not on that level.

[Olerud363]

There are a lot of players with comparable offensive production at a young age who never became Hall of Famers.

 

The closest thing to a surefire Hall of Famer at age 23 is Soto (and Trout before that). Guerrero is not on that level.

 

one of the mistakes people make is including Vlad in a group where he is by definition the worst. Like he just became the 10th youngest to hit 100 homeruns. Are the other 9 hall of famers? I can't remember. Some of them were of course, but Vlad is by definition the WORST of this group according to that criteria.

 

Curious to see a the top 20 players similar to Vlad, which means 10 better, 10 worse, with Vlad as the median, and what became of them all. 20 hall of famers?

[Olerud363]

Players that do what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has done at this young of an age turn into Hall of Fame players, almost without exception. A couple months of average performance are not enough to make me forget what a special player this is. I don't hesitate if he asks for 10/300. I think it will be more than that.

 

According to the baseball reference list of most similar players to Vlad JR through age 22 they don't become hall of famers without exception. Though they all have good careers and 3 are hall of famers (if you include Miguel Cabrera as a certain hall of famer). Acuna still has his story to be told, Bellinger is probably a collapse, so maybe 3/9 became hall of famers.... 6 exceptions.

 

Hal Trosky (942.6)

Ronald Acuna Jr. (942.1)

Cody Bellinger (937.9)

Miguel Cabrera (935.5)

Greg Luzinski (934.9)

Boog Powell (933.5)

Eddie Murray (931.3) *

Juan Gonzalez (926.5)

Giancarlo Stanton (924.4)

Joe Medwick (920.9) *