General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Olerud363]

Honestly as hot and cold and inconsistent this team has been i don't think we deserve playoffs . We will probably make it because of the expanded playoffs. Quick exit is likely though.

 

If they can't beat Baltimore or Tampa Bay in a short series then they won't make the playoffs.

 

To make the playoffs they'll have to beat those two teams about half the time.

 

The weird logic going around, that they'll make the playoffs but then have no chance in the first round is stupid. They have to be able to play .500 against TBR and Baltimore to make the playoffs, and if they can play those teams .500 then the playoff series against them is a coin flip.

 

If they make the playoffs they'll have as good as chance as anyone. If they don't have a chance in short series against wild card contenders they won't make the playoffs.

[Stangstag]

#1 for the offseason is learn basic hitting to all fields. Can't be utterly dominated by command pitchers and pitchers with offspeed pitches over and over with ease

 

George mostly pulls and he’s great. Vlad/Teo/Lourdes/Bo are all oppo guys, their approach at the plate just f***ing sucks. New hitting coach or someone more veteran/willing to yell at these guys for not executing

[Stangstag]

If they can't beat Baltimore or Tampa Bay in a short series then they won't make the playoffs.

 

To make the playoffs they'll have to beat those two teams about half the time.

 

The weird logic going around, that they'll make the playoffs but then have no chance in the first round is stupid. They have to be able to play .500 against TBR and Baltimore to make the playoffs, and if they can play those teams .500 then the playoff series against them is a coin flip.

 

If they make the playoffs they'll have as good as chance as anyone. If they don't have a chance in short series against wild card contenders they won't make the playoffs.

 

Good point. If they can’t beat Tampa/Seattle/Orioles in these upcoming weeks they won’t even be around to get manhandled in the playoffs.

[Olerud363]

George mostly pulls and heÂ’s great. Vlad/Teo/Lourdes/Bo are all oppo guys, their approach at the plate just f***ing sucks. New hitting coach or someone more veteran/willing to yell at these guys for not executing

 

Is it even possible for these guys to change their approach? In 92/93 guys like Olerud/Alomar/Molitor all walked more than they struck out and all hit about .300 .400 .500 for the 2 world Series years. None were big time power hitters, but got 20 homers a year.

 

If you tried to get Vlad and Bo and Lourdes to hit like that would it even be possible? I guess other than Vlad none have the natural ability to recognize pitches that is needed to walk 80 times. What if you tried to get them to all strike out less than 100 times? If you said f*** it, that's the only goal, we don't care if you hit 0 homeruns. What would happen?

 

Maybe they'd all hit like Lourdes is this year. .290 with 5 homers. Who knows. Not sure there are easy answers here.

[harvey16]

This team is so baffling this year. They go on the road and take 6 of 7 from the Yankees and BoSox and pretty well tear the cover off the ball and then come home and get swept and looks like they completely forgot how to hit or play defense. They've got the Cubs and Pirates coming up, two of the worst teams in the league. Hopefully they can turn things around.

[Stangstag]

Is it even possible for these guys to change their approach? In 92/93 guys like Olerud/Alomar/Molitor all walked more than they struck out and all hit about .300 .400 .500 for the 2 world Series years. None were big time power hitters, but got 20 homers a year.

 

If you tried to get Vlad and Bo and Lourdes to hit like that would it even be possible? I guess other than Vlad none have the natural ability to recognize pitches that is needed to walk 80 times. What if you tried to get them to all strike out less than 100 times? If you said f*** it, that's the only goal, we don't care if you hit 0 homeruns. What would happen?

 

Maybe they'd all hit like Lourdes is this year. .290 with 5 homers. Who knows. Not sure there are easy answers here.

 

By “bad approach” I mean not swinging at meatballs down the middle and then striking out on a curve in the dirt.

 

Just feels like these guys have no gameplan at the plate 80% of the time. Like… you shouldn’t ever be swinging at a slider on the corner if you have less than 2 strikes. Just leave it and wait for a better pitch to hit. But we consistently see guys like Vlad and Teo swinging at junk in a 1-1 count resulting in a GIDP.

[Daniel Labude]

George mostly pulls and he’s great. Vlad/Teo/Lourdes/Bo are all oppo guys, their approach at the plate just f***ing sucks. New hitting coach or someone more veteran/willing to yell at these guys for not executing

 

Biggest difference between Vlad's HR this year and last is the amount of opposite field HRs. He just doesn't try to hit it oppo as much as he did last year...even with the great % of pitches there this year. Now most are low, but even the ones he took out last year he either avoids or does nothing with. 4 oppo HRs this year vs 16 last year. He needs to focus on RF until he gets middle and middle in pitches

[BlueBaller]

This team is so baffling this year. They go on the road and take 6 of 7 from the Yankees and BoSox and pretty well tear the cover off the ball and then come home and get swept and looks like they completely forgot how to hit or play defense. They've got the Cubs and Pirates coming up, two of the worst teams in the league. Hopefully they can turn things around.

They crack under the pressure

[Stangstag]

They crack under the pressure

 

Seems to be the main issue here. Team is stumbling with the pressure of immense expectations.

 

We will see over the next few weeks if they regain their footing or collapse completely.

[Spanky99]

$20-22M for one year of Conforto? You're nuts!

 

Why?

[Spanky99]

Ross Atkins and this FO is the best though. Every decision they make, is the correct one. Even if they miss the playoffs, it's bad luck but the computers say this team can be a World Series contender again next season! No need to spend money on the last couple of roster spots like on the bench and in the bullpen just because!

 

Wtf???

[BigCecil]

I made the mistake of listening to Jays Talk after the gm. As expected lots of venom at Teo etc. A lot of "we need a Winfield" stuff.

 

But whats wild is how many fans thinks "Manoah needs to flip over a table in the clubhouse" and the Manager needs to rip the team etc kind of stuff. Like that works. Sure, bench Teo for lack of hustle but the idea Springer or Manoah are going to flip over tables and turn this team around is silly.

 

I think they are a 85+ win team with lots of holes that is both just over rated and in many cases under performing expectations. The league has adjusted to Bo & Vlad and this heavy RH line up. They have yet to figure it out vs RH or LH pitching, going from 12ish WAR to 6ish. The pen was always going to be middle of the road, and the lack of LH impact bat balance is a negative. Berrios has been disappointing and Strip and Kirk have way over exceeded expectations. Springer is huge, when he can play. Last few games Bo's Es and lack of ability to save runs defensively at SS was glaring IMO. Just killing pitch counts.

 

Deadline reinforcements came in a meh and still a meh: White 2 decent short outings and got lit up; Bass a + nasty add - given up 2 dongs, Merrifield is another mediocre RH bat and speed/depth. Pop is in the minors.

 

Talent wise, skill sets and culture wise they do need a shake up in the off season. Still think they squeak into wildcard for away series and I have no idea what will happen. Could win 2 or they could get blown out. Not overly confident in them.

[Laika]

vs. LHP

 

.325 wOBA

113 wRC+

10th best offense

 

vs. RHP

 

.329 wOBA

116 wRC+

3rd best offense

 

 

I don't know. It defies reason, but the offense underperforming in certain periods has NOTHING to do with behind right handed heavy because they are underperforming against f***ing lefties!

 

So when people say the offense struggles because there is no LHB in the middle of it, you can just tell them that is definitely not true. Add a LHB in the middle and this backwards team performance just gets even worse lol.

 

I would be interested in reading or hearing a coaches perspective on why the bats struggle against so many lefties that they should be destroying. Like, Reid f***ing Detmers has no business pitching in Toronto without giving up at least five runs.

[Laika]

Bo Bichette has a 78 wRC+ against lefties with a 25% K rate

 

you cannot tell me that Bo is mentally okay this year

 

he has demons in his head man

 

2020 + 2021 he had a 151 wRC+ against LHP with a 19% K rate

[jaysblue]

I made the mistake of listening to Jays Talk after the gm. As expected lots of venom at Teo etc. A lot of "we need a Winfield" stuff.

 

But whats wild is how many fans thinks "Manoah needs to flip over a table in the clubhouse" and the Manager needs to rip the team etc kind of stuff. Like that works. Sure, bench Teo for lack of hustle but the idea Springer or Manoah are going to flip over tables and turn this team around is silly.

 

I think they are a 85+ win team with lots of holes that is both just over rated and in many cases under performing expectations. The league has adjusted to Bo & Vlad and this heavy RH line up. They have yet to figure it out vs RH or LH pitching, going from 12ish WAR to 6ish. The pen was always going to be middle of the road, and the lack of LH impact bat balance is a negative. Berrios has been disappointing and Strip and Kirk have way over exceeded expectations. Springer is huge, when he can play. Last few games Bo's Es and lack of ability to save runs defensively at SS was glaring IMO. Just killing pitch counts.

 

Deadline reinforcements came in a meh and still a meh: White 2 decent short outings and got lit up; Bass a + nasty add - given up 2 dongs, Merrifield is another mediocre RH bat and speed/depth. Pop is in the minors.

Talent wise, skill sets and culture wise they do need a shake up in the off season. Still think they squeak into wildcard for away series and I have no idea what will happen. Could win 2 or they could get blown out. Not overly confident in them.

 

Who does Jays Talk these days?

 

If Springer flips over a table, he might pull something and land on the IL.

 

Your summary of this team is pretty much dead on IMO. This team was way overrated during Spring Training as the were made out to be World Series favourites when in reality as we're seeing they're an 85-90 win team at best over a 162 game season. There have been some guys like Stripling and Kirk over exceeding expectations while several big pieces like Vlad, Bo, Teo, Berrios all under performing. The pen was middle of the road since Day 1, and the addictions of Bass or Pop really don't move the needle in that regard. The FO during the offseason never properly addressed the BP, which is frustrating because of the core they have in place along with the team timeline. I know some stat heavy posters on here said the Jays having a heavy RH lineup doesn't matter, though it does. The Jays seriously lack a prominent LH bat in the middle of this lineup and that plays a role. There is no balance whatsoever. Tapia, Biggio, and Bradley aren't those pieces. As for Berrios, he's been a huge disappointment. I expect him to bounce back next season, but even still the Jays FO should bring in another solid #2-3 starter since you can't afford a guy like Berrios or another arm to take a step back. Springer needs to stay healthy, and the focus should be to move him to a corner and DH him most of the time to keep him on the field or else this team needs to go out and add another outfielder who you can give 300-400 ABs to and someone who will play above replacement level. Can't waste ABs and playing time on guys like Tapia or Zimmer. This front office also needs to learn when to cut the leash on some guys like Tapia. They rode him for too long during April/May/June and he hurt this team everytime he stepped out onto the field.

 

The deadline reinforcements like you said were meh. I didn't mind them but at the same time they weren't and haven't been enough to move the needle. Atkins wasn't going to shake this team up or pull a big AA trade deadline.

 

They probably do need a bit of a shakeup this offseason. I would go after a LH bat that could a corner OF spot or ideally CF would be nice so Springer can be used more at DH. Add at least two elite bullpen arms, even if it costs money since you have this core in place still for 2023. Teo can be replaceable after 2023, though Chapman will be a big loss. That's why it's best to win when you have Chappy under control and when Springer is still in his early 30s. Target a No. #2-3 starter which doesn't hurt. Can't rely on Berrios being one and if he is, then even better and gives the Jays excellent rotation depth #1-4 with White as a No. 5 guy. Take a chance on an arm recovering but who could be back in June/July if one is available for depth purposes.

 

I hope they still snatch up a Wildcard spot, but I don't have much confidence in this team. They can definitely win and advance or like you said get blown out. Hope they're playing their best baseball at that time.

[Brownie19]

Biggest difference between Vlad's HR this year and last is the amount of opposite field HRs. He just doesn't try to hit it oppo as much as he did last year...even with the great % of pitches there this year. Now most are low, but even the ones he took out last year he either avoids or does nothing with. 4 oppo HRs this year vs 16 last year. He needs to focus on RF until he gets middle and middle in pitches

 

His % of balls hit to the opposite field are almost identical as 2021 (grounders, liners and flyballs). It's true he doesn't have as many HRs to the opposite field, but he's still doing a lot of damage there. They keep saying the balls are 'deader' this year, which may be reducing the # of oppo tacos. There's also an element of luck involved here.

[Laika]

I would go with "underperformed" before "overrated"

 

Vlad + Bo + Berrios are going to cumulatively produce like 9 or 10 WAR less than projections / expected performance

[Eat My Shatkins]

I would go with "underperformed" before "overrated"

 

Vlad + Bo + Berrios are going to cumulatively produce like 9 or 10 WAR less than projections / expected performance

 

Exactly. I posted this a few posts up.

 

Massive underperformance from three key core players that no one expected when the season started. That's really the difference.

 

Now the question is will they bounce back next season and beyond?

[G-Snarls]

Exactly. I posted this a few posts up.

 

Massive underperformance from three key core players that no one expected when the season started. That's really the difference.

 

Now the question is will they bounce back next season and beyond?

 

Because we've got as much or more than expected from Chapman, Springer, Espinal, Kirk, Gausman, Manoah, Stripling and others

[Jonn]

Because we've got as much or more than expected from Chapman, Springer, Espinal, Kirk, Gausman, Manoah, Stripling and others

 

Springer and Gausman certainty don’t belong on this list. They are both signed to premium contracts.

[Stangstag]

Springer and Gausman certainty don’t belong on this list. They are both signed to premium contracts.

 

Chapman is playing about as well as projected so not a surprise there either. Kirk also had extremely lofty projections before the season, and he’s slightly outplayed them.

 

The only guys on the team that are actually over performing would be Stripling and Espinal. Maybe Manoah slightly better than expected.

 

Meanwhile Bo, Berrios, Kikuchi, Ryu are way underperforming their projections. We’ve gotten almost nothing from the 5th spot in the rotation all year, 2 rotation spots if you want to include Berrios in there too.

[MikeM3]

Everyone is talking about MLB transactions. Our problem is organizational talent, especially pitching. We are forced to deal prospects for relievers, swing men and utility guys.

 

Those guys should be in the system already.

[G-Snarls]

Springer and Gausman certainty don’t belong on this list. They are both signed to premium contracts.

 

"as much or more than expected"

 

Those two have performed as expected irrespective of contract

[BigCecil]

vs. LHP

 

.325 wOBA

113 wRC+

10th best offense

 

vs. RHP

 

.329 wOBA

116 wRC+

3rd best offense

 

 

I don't know. It defies reason, but the offense underperforming in certain periods has NOTHING to do with behind right handed heavy because they are underperforming against f***ing lefties!

 

So when people say the offense struggles because there is no LHB in the middle of it, you can just tell them that is definitely not true. Add a LHB in the middle and this backwards team performance just gets even worse lol.

 

I would be interested in reading or hearing a coaches perspective on why the bats struggle against so many lefties that they should be destroying. Like, Reid f***ing Detmers has no business pitching in Toronto without giving up at least five runs.

 

I get its hard to argue with those numbers but I'll take a stab at it lol. There is an ease to pitching to a line with impact bats that all hit RH. A repetition and rhythm. Top rights handers with V and good breaking ball they can locate carve us up. (They do to everyone especially us. We'll see this in the playoffs). I don't know how many good pitchers I've heard interviewed this year who said this is a big Jays weakness this year, based on their experience. This year Jays are hitting s*** against LHP in part because nobody throws them much for obvious reasons. At one point 1/3 of the way through the season it was was at an historic low since the 20s the number they faced.

 

I posted Bo is down 100 wRC+ points last time I looked vs LHP this year a couple days ago. It was over 150 '21. No wonder we see so few in '22 and when we do we suck. Same weird thing nobody could explain happened in '15 to that team so they brought in Valencia. Hard to explain.

 

We have a good offence as the numbers show. It could be even better with some LH impact balance. Its in part why this FO tried and failed to land Ramirez & Brantley

[jaysblue]

As Springer ages, he will start slowing down and become more injury prone than he is now. It's best to put together a Championship caliber team when you have Springer still playing at an elite level, not when he's 35 or 36. That's why 2023 and 2024 is the window for this club. Same goes for even a guy like Gausman. As for Chapman, he's gone likely after 2023 and replacing him will be difficult. That's why there should even be more urgency for next season! As for Manoah, we've seen young arms getting TJS and last thing the Blue Jays need is for him to miss 12-18 months. The Blue Jays can't afford to miss Manoah for an extended period of time as lets say the Dodgers can with Walker Buehler. He's healthy now and pitching well, so this is the best time to field a Championship caliber team. 2023 will be such a crucial season for this organization, and so will 2024. After those seasons, window shuts especially when Vladdy, Bo, Manoah, Kirk get more expensive, Springer and Gausman get older, and you lose some key FAs like Chapman, Teo and Gurriel most likely.

[BigCecil]

His % of balls hit to the opposite field are almost identical as 2021 (grounders, liners and flyballs). It's true he doesn't have as many HRs to the opposite field, but he's still doing a lot of damage there. They keep saying the balls are 'deader' this year, which may be reducing the # of oppo tacos. There's also an element of luck involved here.

 

I don't know this for sure, but I'd guess if one was to give into his oppo HR's last year those minor league parks helped a lot.

[jaysblue]

I get its hard to argue with those numbers but I'll take a stab at it lol. There is an ease to pitching to a line with impact bats that all hit RH. A repetition and rhythm. Top rights handers with V and good breaking ball they can locate carve us up. (They do to everyone especially us. We'll see this in the playoffs). I don't know how many good pitchers I've heard interviewed this year who said this is a big Jays weakness this year, based on their experience. Some of them HOF. This year Jays are hitting s*** against LHP in part because nobody throws them much for obvious reasons. At one point 1/3 of the way through the season it was was at an historic low since the 20s the number they faced.

 

I posted Bo is down 100 wRC+ points last time I looked vs LHP this year a couple days ago. It was over 150 '21. No wonder we see so few in '22 and when we do we suck. Same weird thing nobody could explain happened in '15 to that team so they brought in Valencia. Hard to explain.

 

We have a good offence as the numbers show. It could be even better with some LH impact balance. Its in part why this FO tried and failed to land Ramirez & Brantley

 

Agree with everything you said. Top right-handers whether starters or bullpen arms can carve up this lineup no problem. Sure some scrapheap right-handed pitchers whether starters or bullpen arms might not have as much success and the Jays RH bats can usually do damage against them, though you aren't facing those types of arms against good teams in the Postseason. Would be interesting to see how this lineup has performed against top right-handers versus mediocre/below average right-handers. It's easy to pad numbers against an arm that belongs in the minors. Look at the Jays 28-5 beatdown against Boston back in July. Also, like you said the sample size with southpaws this season is a small one since most teams aren't throwing 2 lefties at the Jays in a series or any in the late innings.

 

Lineup balance doesn't hurt and it also puts pressure on the opposing team late in games in terms of which relievers they bring in certain situations. Most opposing teams don't have to worry about having any southpaws in the BP when they face the Blue Jays lineup. They can deploy all their top right-handers against this lineup in the late innings.

 

Like you said, the Jays tried to acquire Ramirez and Brantley for a reason. They even probably realized they needed some balance but since they couldn't pull those deals through, they went with what they had. Again, we're not talking about a complete overhaul of this lineup. Some tinkering is all that is needed because the current strategy of going all heavy with RH bats hasn't been working.

[The Cats Ass]

I get its hard to argue with those numbers but I'll take a stab at it lol. There is an ease to pitching to a line with impact bats that all hit RH. A repetition and rhythm. Top rights handers with V and good breaking ball they can locate carve us up. (They do to everyone especially us. We'll see this in the playoffs). I don't know how many good pitchers I've heard interviewed this year who said this is a big Jays weakness this year, based on their experience. This year Jays are hitting s*** against LHP in part because nobody throws them much for obvious reasons. At one point 1/3 of the way through the season it was was at an historic low since the 20s the number they faced.

 

I posted Bo is down 100 wRC+ points last time I looked vs LHP this year a couple days ago. It was over 150 '21. No wonder we see so few in '22 and when we do we suck. Same weird thing nobody could explain happened in '15 to that team so they brought in Valencia. Hard to explain.

 

We have a good offence as the numbers show. It could be even better with some LH impact balance. Its in part why this FO tried and failed to land Ramirez & Brantley

 

Do you have examples? Verlander and Cole, two of the top guys I can think of have pitched poorly against this lineup.

[Terminator]

As Springer ages, he will start slowing down and become more injury prone than he is now. It's best to put together a Championship caliber team when you have Springer still playing at an elite level, not when he's 35 or 36. That's why 2023 and 2024 is the window for this club. Same goes for even a guy like Gausman. As for Chapman, he's gone likely after 2023 and replacing him will be difficult. That's why there should even be more urgency for next season! As for Manoah, we've seen young arms getting TJS and last thing the Blue Jays need is for him to miss 12-18 months. The Blue Jays can't afford to miss Manoah for an extended period of time as lets say the Dodgers can with Walker Buehler. He's healthy now and pitching well, so this is the best time to field a Championship caliber team. 2023 will be such a crucial season for this organization, and so will 2024. After those seasons, window shuts especially when Vladdy, Bo, Manoah, Kirk get more expensive, Springer and Gausman get older, and you lose some key FAs like Chapman, Teo and Gurriel most likely.

 

Yeah next year is a big year. The only significant FA is Stripling so the team will be in pretty good shape. The bullpen was largely fixed this deadline and we've got a good crop of MLB starting pitching (Gausman, Manoah, Berrios, Mitch White, Kikuchi under contract is a good start) and the minor leagues are likely to provide some depth too (Tiedemann and Zululeta in AAA). The lineup is already set and even the bench looks like it's in pretty good shape with 2 WAR guys like Merrifield and Biggio there along with whatever backup C ends up there.

 

We obviously will need more SP but there isn't a whole lot of glaring holes that will need fixed.

[Carlos Danger]

Yeah next year is a big year. The only significant FA is Stripling so the team will be in pretty good shape. The bullpen was largely fixed this deadline and we've got a good crop of MLB starting pitching (Gausman, Manoah, Berrios, Mitch White, Kikuchi under contract is a good start) and the minor leagues are likely to provide some depth too (Tiedemann and Zululeta in AAA). The lineup is already set and even the bench looks like it's in pretty good shape with 2 WAR guys like Merrifield and Biggio there along with whatever backup C ends up there.

 

We obviously will need more SP but there isn't a whole lot of glaring holes that will need fixed.

 

I normally agree with you... But, you want to go to war next year with the same guys that sucked this year? Kickuchi, Richards, Kay etc... Look at our deadline aquistions... Pop is in the minors, Bass is fine if he doesn't pitch late inning pressure sitiations... Merifield really has not moved the needle yet... We had a career year form Espinal.. Is that what he is or is he going to regress... I just don't see what will make a difference next year from this year?

 

Everyone said last year we will be great this year since we will have a full year of Kirk, Manoha, Cimber, Richards etc... We need to do something to make this team more consistent.... What is our longest winning streak this year? We need to find a way to get all cylinders firing at once. If we have the pitching we don't have hitting and vice versa, if the SPs are doing well the BP is not etc... The Team's depth IMO is an issue. We can only be good for short spurts... Actually bodes well in the playoffs, if we make it!?