General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Laika]

Kikuchi's statcast snapshot is the grossest, saddest thing I have seen in a while.

 

Above average FB velo, spin rate, and whiff/K rate

 

Everything else extremely below average. Like, 5th percentile or worse. Everything hitters touch is a rocket.

 

It looks exactly like 2021 EXCEPT his chase rate has plummeted from 60th percentile (good) to 12th (horrendous). Hitters are spitting on his chase pitches at will.

[Laika]

So they took away the cutter earlier this year.

He was then good for 5 starts.

But he has returned to s***. Still not throwing the cutter.

All I can see is - he was throwing may more fastballs on his good stretch than during his recent run of s***.

 

[Laika]

I really think they want him to be a poor man's version of Robbie Ray with 60+ percent fastballs while saving the decent offspeed pitches to surprise hitters

 

The problem is that Ray could throw his FB in the zone almost at will. He has good enough command to do that evidently.

 

Kikuchi has starts where his command radius on the FB is like 2 feet; sometimes he has no clue where it is going. Then he is absolutely f***ed.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Laika

[Stangstag]

May 4th to May 28th

Kikuchi had 5 starts

2.36 ERA

2.64 FIP

5.1 IP per start

Only 1 HR

 

He was bad before this for his first four starts (failed to pitch 4 innings three of the times) and bad in the four starts since.

 

I wonder if this was just random or if something did click but then he lost it.

 

Seattle fans are saying he’s always been like this. Super good one start, looks like he can barely get an out the next start. Wildly inconsistent week to week.

 

5th starter material if he limits the bad starts a slight bit more. Although I agree with the other comments that we can’t really have Stripling AND Kikuchi in the rotation for the rest of the year.

[connorp]

I really think they want him to be a poor man's version of Robbie Ray with 60+ percent fastballs while saving the decent offspeed pitchers to surprise hitters

 

The problem is that Ray could throw his FB in the zone almost at all. He has good enough command to do that evidently.

 

Kikuchi has starts where his command radius on the FB is like 2 feet; sometimes he has no clue where it is going. Then he is absolutely f***ed.

 

So if he could throw more strikes, we would probably see a big improvement. Eureka.

[Laika]

So if he could throw more strikes, we would probably see a big improvement. Eureka.

 

That's not the point. I mean it's true but the point is just to analyze why the attempted change (cutter removal) is not really working so far.

 

Old Kikuchi - 80% of pitches were cutters or 4-seamers. I think he could throw the cutter for strikes more reliably but it would get hammered.

 

New Kikuchi - 60% of pitches 4 seamers. No cutters. Walks and falling behind hitters are now a bigger problem than ever though.

[Terminator]

Seattle fans are saying he’s always been like this. Super good one start, looks like he can barely get an out the next start. Wildly inconsistent week to week.

 

5th starter material if he limits the bad starts a slight bit more. Although I agree with the other comments that we can’t really have Stripling AND Kikuchi in the rotation for the rest of the year.

 

What's wrong with Stripling?

[Laika]

Alejandro Kirk Isn't Your Average Catcher

 

“What if Freddie Freeman was 5-foot-8 and knew how to operate a PitchCom device?”

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alejandro-kirk-isnt-your-average-catcher/

 

someone tell Fangraphs that Kirk is definitely like 5'6"

[Dagagad]

I will be pretty unhappy if they trade kirk.

[connorp]

I will be pretty unhappy if they trade kirk.

 

You’d probably be very disappointed in what Jansen brings back too

[Dagagad]

You’d probably be very disappointed in what Jansen brings back too

 

2 more years of control, a decent sample of good offensive play and average to good behind the plate.

 

If he comes back and plays well, and stays healthy… it should be a decent return. He would be an upgrade right now to a number of playoff teams.

[Terminator]

Alejandro Kirk Isn't Your Average Catcher

 

“What if Freddie Freeman was 5-foot-8 and knew how to operate a PitchCom device?”

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alejandro-kirk-isnt-your-average-catcher/

 

someone tell Fangraphs that Kirk is definitely like 5'6"

 

If I had to guess I think he's about 5'4'' and 310 pounds.

[Dagagad]

The more I think about it, I’d keep all three catchers to the off-season. Reason being is that Jansen is the one I want to trade, and there’s bound to be 4/5 teams who think they will be contenders who need catching as well as all the contenders. Trade prospects at the deadline and then get others back in the off-season. More likely to pull off a steal that way.

[Jimcanuck]

The more I think about it, I’d keep all three catchers to the off-season. Reason being is that Jansen is the one I want to trade, and there’s bound to be 4/5 teams who think they will be contenders who need catching as well as all the contenders. Trade prospects at the deadline and then get others back in the off-season. More likely to pull off a steal that way.

 

Or maybe, trade one of the 3 catchers or prospects at the deadline, depending on what deal makes the most sense?

 

There might be a team out there that is offering up what the Jays want, but want prospects. Or maybe they prefer a catcher. No sense in limiting oneself to any one approach. Everything should be on the table.

[Dagagad]

Or maybe, trade one of the 3 catchers or prospects at the deadline, depending on what deal makes the most sense?

 

There might be a team out there that is offering up what the Jays want, but want prospects. Or maybe they prefer a catcher. No sense in limiting oneself to any one approach. Everything should be on the table.

 

Yea yea I know, we should trade anyone on the team depending on the deal we get. I got it.

[glory]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight. The greatest -0.7 WAR talent in the league in LF batting 5th (yes, 5th). Biggio at 1B. Vlad at DH.

[max silver]

Yea yea I know, we should trade anyone on the team depending on the deal we get. I got it.

 

I don't agree with Jim's take that you don't pick which catcher(s) you want to keep based on value to the MLB team instead of what's coming back in trade, but I do see his point in a way as the team has 3 MLB capable starting catchers on the roster. The front office has a ton of flexibility in determining how they want to shape the roster with 3 assets such as this, where they don't have nearly that same type of flexibility elsewhere. You can't just trade Vlad or Bo in the same way as there aren't equivalent replacements available, but with Moreno, Kirk and Jansen you could choose any one of the 3 as your MLB starter and receive very good production out of the position.

[Laika]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight. The greatest -0.7 WAR talent in the league in LF batting 5th (yes, 5th). Biggio at 1B. Vlad at DH.

 

I want to vomit

[wilko]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight. The greatest -0.7 WAR talent in the league in LF batting 5th (yes, 5th). Biggio at 1B. Vlad at DH.

 

Is this Charlie or the analytic nerds?

[Solaxys]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight.

 

Makes sense. Gurriel had the foul ball incident and probably extremely sore in that area. Kirk played in all 3 games (and caught back to back) - though am surprised that he is sitting on Berrios' pitching day since they typically are shipped together. Hopefully Berrios remains just as effective with Moreno.

 

Tapia has been hot as well. Its a weird lineup but might just work.

 

Biggio is a weird choice (Lynn only has 3.3 BB/9 in his career and no walks last game) but I guess Vlad with the dive last night also warrants a semi-day off.

 

Its how this team is being managed - pretty sure Springer is getting a day off tomorrow. So get on board

[Jimcanuck]

I don't agree with Jim's take that you don't pick which catcher(s) you want to keep based on value to the MLB team instead of what's coming back in trade, but I do see his point in a way as the team has 3 MLB capable starting catchers on the roster. The front office has a ton of flexibility in determining how they want to shape the roster with 3 assets such as this, where they don't have nearly that same type of flexibility elsewhere. You can't just trade Vlad or Bo in the same way as there aren't equivalent replacements available, but with Moreno, Kirk and Jansen you could choose any one of the 3 as your MLB starter and receive very good production out of the position.

 

Bo isn't going anywhere, but Espinal is a better SS.

 

Moreno, Kirk, Jansen have value to the Jays, but if a team offers up more value in trade to fill positions of need, you take it, right? So no, you don't start off by making one or two of the 3 catchers off limits.

 

Remember the Jays two WS was in large part prompted by trading fan favourite Crime Dog and Fernandez to SDP for Alomar and Carter. Nothing should be sacrosanct.

[max silver]

Bo isn't going anywhere, but Espinal is a better SS.

 

Moreno, Kirk, Jansen have value to the Jays, but if a team offers up more value in trade to fill positions of need, you take it, right? So no, you don't start off by making one or two of the 3 catchers off limits.

 

Remember the Jays two WS was in large part prompted by trading fan favourite Crime Dog and Fernandez to SDP for Alomar and Carter. Nothing should be sacrosanct.

 

I still think the team is going to have a preference to which catcher(s) they want to keep long term. The Alomar/Carter trade was actually pretty similar to the current catcher scenario in that the team had replacements for Fernandez and McGriff already available to take over.

[Stangstag]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight. The greatest -0.7 WAR talent in the league in LF batting 5th (yes, 5th). Biggio at 1B. Vlad at DH.

 

Really going with our best out there today

[Stangstag]

Also interesting the team seems to be switching up the catching Duos now…

 

Moreno/Berrios tonight and likely Kirk/Gausman tomorrow?

[Terminator]

Kirk and Gurriel sitting tonight. The greatest -0.7 WAR talent in the league in LF batting 5th (yes, 5th). Biggio at 1B. Vlad at DH.

 

For crying out loud Chucky

[John_Havok]

Makes sense. Gurriel had the foul ball incident and probably extremely sore in that area. Kirk played in all 3 games (and caught back to back) - though am surprised that he is sitting on Berrios' pitching day since they typically are shipped together. Hopefully Berrios remains just as effective with Moreno.

 

Tapia has been hot as well. Its a weird lineup but might just work.

 

Biggio is a weird choice (Lynn only has 3.3 BB/9 in his career and no walks last game) but I guess Vlad with the dive last night also warrants a semi-day off.

 

Its how this team is being managed - pretty sure Springer is getting a day off tomorrow. So get on board

 

I dont give a flying rabbit s*** how well Tapia has been hitting in the past few weeks, he should never hit higher than 9th.

[Omar]

I dont give a flying rabbit s*** how well Tapia has been hitting in the past few weeks, he should never hit higher than 9th.

 

When you see pushups at home plate tonight, you'll be singing a different tune.

[Dagagad]

I still think the team is going to have a preference to which catcher(s) they want to keep long term. The Alomar/Carter trade was actually pretty similar to the current catcher scenario in that the team had replacements for Fernandez and McGriff already available to take over.

 

The idea that teams don’t have strong preferences on who they want to keep and judge solely by offers received is asinine.

 

Sure there is some offer they would accept but for some players it’s 130% of their perceived value and for some it’s 100% or less.

 

Very few teams ever trade the best player and keep the lesser ones because they got a better offer. It basically never happens.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hmm

 

Tapia has an .848 OPS and a 136 wRC+ in June

 

0 walks (lol)

 

Fueled by 8 doubles

[Solaxys]

I dont give a flying rabbit s*** how well Tapia has been hitting in the past few weeks, he should never hit higher than 9th.

 

Its just analytics though; Lynn does significantly better against righties than lefties - in 2021 (157 IP): 192/230/303 (530 OPS) for righties; 227/303/375 (677 OPS) for lefties. Mirrored in his last and only start of the 2022 season.

 

Obviously Tapia is Tapia, but against RHS:

Tapia: 272/293/386 (679 OPS)

Espinal: 279/335/41 (754 OPS)

Chapman: 212/306/364 (671 OPS)

Biggio: 156/317/234 (551 OPS)

 

Can make a case for Espinal before Tapia (so he bats 6th) or put a lefty amid all the righties in a row so Lynn has a stopgap.

 

It makes sense why he is there, sucks that he is one of our only three LHBs on the roster, but at least they didn't put Zimmer in the lineup.