General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

Above and beyond what any of us ever expected

 

Such a pleasant surprise.

[keggy]

Our bullpen was a mess last year and we traded riley Adams, john panik, and tellez to fix it. I don’t see us giving up the kind of prospects that getting bednar would require. It just doesn’t seem to jive with our org philosophy towards the pen. If we do get swing and miss, I think it comes internally, or from a weird source.. like a backend starter whose stuff picks up in the pen.

 

Montas I like and we have quite a few of the near majors prospects the As like. That seems like more of a ‘if one of the top 2 gets injured’ type deal. He seems like he would be expensive and he would be our third or fourth best starter. I think I’d rather find like 2/3 backend starters for cheap just as depth and portential bullpen help.

 

To me, the goal is just to make the playoffs. If the gap at the deadline is closer or we are in a dogfight for the last wild card spot… then I’d think about using better assets.

 

Last year the team was fighting to make the playoffs. With the new wildcard format the Jays are like 95% likely to make the playoffs.

 

If the front office is seriously pushing to win a World Series this year, they'll need to add at least 1 and possibly 2 elite bullpen arms and a replacement bat for Tapia's PAs. There is absolutely no way a team with this bullpen wins the World Series. The 2015 team had 3 elite guys (Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil) and an entire second wave of guys that are just as good as our setup guys (Aaron Sanchez, Latroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe).

 

If we're lucky, some of these pieces might be internal (Pearson, Moreno). I think they'll make a final decision closer to the trade deadline.

[Dagagad]

Last year the team was fighting to make the playoffs. With the new wildcard format the Jays are like 95% likely to make the playoffs.

 

If the front office is seriously pushing to win a World Series this year, they'll need to add at least 1 and possibly 2 elite bullpen arms and a replacement bat for Tapia's PAs. There is absolutely no way a team with this bullpen wins the World Series. The 2015 team had 3 elite guys (Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil) and an entire second wave of guys that are just as good as our setup guys (Aaron Sanchez, Latroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe).

 

If we're lucky, some of these pieces might be internal (Pearson, Moreno). I think they'll make a final decision closer to the trade deadline.

 

I think this is backwards. In a year you are fighting for a spot, you put more resources in. In a year where you are 95% in, you put in less.

 

An 88 win Atlanta team won the World Series last year. There is so much luck in 3 and 7 games series that I find it hard to justify using good prospects to improve our chances within the playoffs itself.

[Stangstag]

Last year the team was fighting to make the playoffs. With the new wildcard format the Jays are like 95% likely to make the playoffs.

 

If the front office is seriously pushing to win a World Series this year, they'll need to add at least 1 and possibly 2 elite bullpen arms and a replacement bat for Tapia's PAs. There is absolutely no way a team with this bullpen wins the World Series. The 2015 team had 3 elite guys (Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil) and an entire second wave of guys that are just as good as our setup guys (Aaron Sanchez, Latroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe).

 

If we're lucky, some of these pieces might be internal (Pearson, Moreno). I think they'll make a final decision closer to the trade deadline.

 

Did you completely miss the Washington Nationals winning the WS with exactly 1 good reliever in 2019??

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

[Laika]

Last year the team was fighting to make the playoffs. With the new wildcard format the Jays are like 95% likely to make the playoffs.

 

If the front office is seriously pushing to win a World Series this year, they'll need to add at least 1 and possibly 2 elite bullpen arms and a replacement bat for Tapia's PAs. There is absolutely no way a team with this bullpen wins the World Series. The 2015 team had 3 elite guys (Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil) and an entire second wave of guys that are just as good as our setup guys (Aaron Sanchez, Latroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe).

 

If we're lucky, some of these pieces might be internal (Pearson, Moreno). I think they'll make a final decision closer to the trade deadline.

 

I think that is slightly overstating the importance of the pen

 

There is not a huge diff between the current pen and the 2015 pen

 

Lowe, Loup, and Hawkins were mediocre

 

There are like five solid relievers in the pen right now and one closer who is elite when rested.

 

Yes, it would be nice to have another true shut down arm and for various reasons guys like Phelps, Yimi, and Cimber, while good, are not that

[Stangstag]

I think this is backwards. In a year you are fighting for a spot, you put more resources in. In a year where you are 95% in, you put in less.

 

An 88 win Atlanta team won the World Series last year. There is so much luck in 3 and 7 games series that I find it hard to justify using good prospects to improve our chances within the playoffs itself.

 

Bingo. Don’t give up the future/sustained success to try and build a “guaranteed WS team”. It rarely works, and the underdog playoff teams win all the time.

 

See: 2021 Braves, 2019 Nats, multiple BETTER Washington teams not making it to the WS, 2018 Redsox beating the juggernaut Dodgers, 2014 Giants winning it all, 2014 miracle Royals making it to the WS, 2015 Jays NOT making it to the WS, 2011 Cardinals, I can keep going on…

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'm still hoping Merryweather doesn't actually suck and figures out how to get fixed.

 

His FIP and xFIP are still decent so there is some hope I think. Plus his short stint in AAA showed swing and miss too (SSS)

 

Plus Mayza will be back soon too I hope

[Dagagad]

Bingo. Don’t give up the future/sustained success to try and build a “guaranteed WS team”. It rarely works, and the underdog playoff teams win all the time.

 

See: 2021 Braves, 2019 Nats, multiple BETTER Washington teams not making it to the WS, 2018 Redsox beating the juggernaut Dodgers, 2014 Giants winning it all, 2014 miracle Royals making it to the WS, 2015 Jays NOT making it to the WS, 2011 Cardinals, I can keep going on…

 

Yea, in my mind I just crown the team with the most wins the best team in baseball and move on unless the jays are in the playoffs. It’s entertaining but it’s a luckbox.

 

There are some variables. If we are 1 game back of the Yankees at the deadline, I can see the value of trying to get a bye into a 7 game series over having to play a 3 game one first.

 

I also think we should make trades. We need to clear some 40 man mess. We probably have prospects we have soured on and want to sell high. But, giving up genuine guys we want to keep for swing and miss in the pen if we are basically locked into a wild card? No.

[Carlos Danger]

Did you completely miss the Washington Nationals winning the WS with exactly 1 good reliever in 2019??

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

You don't want to be the outlier... That was some fluke.. The Nationals also had two guys.. BPs are key to WS and playoffs... KC was shutdown after 5 innings, all they needed was a starter to give them 4 or 5..

 

Those LAD vs Houston series... The Nationals getting to the Astros pen.... The Nationals also had at least three BP guys who stepped up in the WS..

 

No secret the Yankees have a great pen that contributes to them being where they are... Even with injuries they have backfilled very well.. Those one run games we were winning and the playoffs is where you really need a good and deep pen..

[Dagagad]

You don't want to be the outlier... That was some fluke.. The Nationals also had two guys.. BPs are key to WS and playoffs... KC was shutdown after 5 innings, all they needed was a starter to give them 4 or 5..

 

Those LAD vs Houston series... The Nationals getting to the Astros pen.... The Nationals also had at least three BP guys who stepped up in the WS..

 

No secret the Yankees have a great pen that contributes to them being where they are... Even with injuries they have backfilled very well.. Those one run games we were winning and the playoffs is where you really need a good and deep pen..

 

The yanks and the rays seem to have the best pens every year and neither have won in a while.

 

I think as an org we probably do under emphasize the pen. But, I can respect the process. Also, there does seem to be more swing and miss in the farm, so as early as this year we might be able to solve some of our own problems in that area.

 

But, if we want to be like the rays or the Yankees, we need to go back in time and develop pitchers like them AND we need to be willing to put resources into it. The Yankees will spend in free agency. The rays will trade starting short stops for 2 relievers when they are contending.

[RobinThicc]

[Spanky99]

They can shore up the pen for cheap, no way they spend prospect capital of Pearson or Moreno. No big deal yet, if they move high end prospects it'd be for the rotation.

[Spanky99]

 

I opened twitter and this was sitting there, he's quite upset...

 

 

Also *gay white privilege* is trending, what's the difference? lol... that's rhetorical by the way.

[Carlos Danger]

They can shore up the pen for cheap, no way they spend prospect capital of Pearson or Moreno. No big deal yet, if they move high end prospects it'd be for the rotation.

 

100% agree with not using high end prospects for the pen. However, improving the pen should also be a priority in conjunction with additional moves..

[Spanky99]

100% agree with not using high end prospects for the pen. However, improving the pen should also be a priority in conjunction with additional moves..

 

Of course, they'll be buying.

[Dagagad]

100% agree with not using high end prospects for the pen. However, improving the pen should also be a priority in conjunction with additional moves..

 

You can absolutely do more cimber/richards moves without using top end prospects. Good luck getting swing and miss that way. You will have to trade someone you’d rather keep.

[keggy]

Did you completely miss the Washington Nationals winning the WS with exactly 1 good reliever in 2019??

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

This is the kind of old school sabermetrics thinking that led the 2000s A's to make the playoffs every year and never win a playoff series.

 

There are absolutely teams that are set up for success in the playoffs. How much prospect capital you choose to risk to build that team is the only question here.

 

I'm not saying trade Moreno for an expensive closer, but if management thinks now is the time for a championship, moves will need to be made.

[L54]

I opened twitter and this was sitting there, he's quite upset...

 

 

Also *gay white privilege* is trending, what's the difference? lol... that's rhetorical by the way.

 

Someone explain this to me like I’m 5

[Olerud363]

I opened twitter and this was sitting there, he's quite upset...

 

 

 

What's the story? He's upset because they want to use the roads to drive to the ballpark?

 

Still lol at how Stoeten apparently lost the 'Drunk Blue Jays' brand for like a 1 year sting at National Post or something, then they canned him but he never got the brand back.

 

He's probably too much of a moron to understand how valuable that was. Everyone new that name "Drunk Blue Jays fans". Even my wife knew it.

 

What an idiot. He somehow from a guy you read everyday, even if just to hate him to someone I never hear of outside of annoying tweats.

[Dagagad]

This is the kind of old school sabermetrics thinking that led the 2000s A's to make the playoffs every year and never win a playoff series.

 

There are absolutely teams that are set up for success in the playoffs. How much prospect capital you choose to risk to build that team is the only question here.

 

I'm not saying trade Moreno for an expensive closer, but if management thinks now is the time for a championship, moves will need to be made.

 

The dodgers have won one recently (in a bs shortened season) and they put massive resources into every part of their team…..

 

The rays and Yankees have won zero recently and they put massive resources in their own ways into the bullpen.

 

I don’t see the correlation that you see.

[Olerud363]

What's the story? He's upset because they want to use the roads to drive to the ballpark?

 

Still lol at how Stoeten apparently lost the 'Drunk Blue Jays' brand for like a 1 year sting at National Post or something, then they canned him but he never got the brand back.

 

He's probably too much of a moron to understand how valuable that was. Everyone new that name "Drunk Blue Jays fans". Even my wife knew it.

 

What an idiot. He somehow from a guy you read everyday, even if just to hate him to someone I never hear of outside of annoying tweats.

 

He was probably such an arrogant out of touch prick, that he thought the name "Andrew Stoeten" is something people would follow, but it was the DBJF blog, with his partner that they followed, not him.

 

Mike Wilner -- there's a name you follow, even if just to be annoyed by him. Andrew Stoeten not so much.

[Dagagad]

I agree with stoeten on this one. Cities are better when there are spaces that pedestrians and cyclists can call their own.

 

On baseball, heÂ’s just an aggregator. He has nothing original or interesting to say coupled with a big attitude.

[Laika]

What's the story? He's upset because they want to use the roads to drive to the ballpark?

 

Still lol at how Stoeten apparently lost the 'Drunk Blue Jays' brand for like a 1 year sting at National Post or something, then they canned him but he never got the brand back.

 

He's probably too much of a moron to understand how valuable that was. Everyone new that name "Drunk Blue Jays fans". Even my wife knew it.

 

What an idiot. He somehow from a guy you read everyday, even if just to hate him to someone I never hear of outside of annoying tweats.

 

Can't really fault a blogger for trying to make a real newspaper job work

[Olerud363]

Can't really fault a blogger for trying to make a real newspaper job work

 

He lost what was a valuable brand. Would have been better off continue to build his own site as it had great traffic for a couple of years around 2013/14.

 

I don't totally fault him, for giving it a go at a real newspaper, he should have been careful to keep the rights to his blog in case things didn't work out, which they didn't.

[Laika]

He lost what was a valuable brand. Would have been better off continue to build his own site as it had great traffic for a couple of years around 2013/14.

 

I don't totally fault him, for giving it a go at a real newspaper, he should have been careful to keep the rights to his blog in case things didn't work out, which they didn't.

 

Yeah I get it

 

They actually lost the brand to The Score right? Sold out to The Score, were there for like two years, then The Score killed Drunk Jays Fans and several other satellite blog things. Then Stoeten went to work for NP for about three weeks. Then that didn't work out. So he started www dot andrewstoeten dot com

[Dagagad]

Yeah I get it

 

They actually lost the brand to The Score right? Sold out to The Score, were there for like two years, then The Score killed Drunk Jays Fans and several other satellite blog things. Then Stoeten went to work for NP for about three weeks. Then that didn't work out. So he started www dot andrewstoeten dot com

 

He has a sub stack newsletter. If I’m ever out of town or traveling and can’t really follow anything, I read it. It’s a good round up.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I noticed that of all our relievers to have pitched more than 10 innings in relief, Richards is the only one with a negative fWAR

 

He's also pitched the most innings...

 

Boy, if you are struggling Montoyo is not afraid to give you more than enough rope to hang yourself.

[Daniel Labude]

[Daniel Labude]

[Big BlueJay]

 

Seems odd to call a guy up then have him sit in his hotel room for a couple days?