General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

Also, I'm really not liking this damn, ball.

[Spanky99]

Our balls are cursed

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74713/moonshot-2022-baseball-variable-drag-inconsistency/?utm_source=Baseball+Prospectus&utm_campaign=3ed3706556-2022-05-23+BP+Basic+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1613350d6d-3ed3706556-370617884&mc_cid=3ed3706556&mc_eid=558ae0dfb3

 

It's hidden behind a paywall, dude?

[keggy]

My kingdom for an impact LHH (s), and thats probably what it would cost right now. We kind of hoped Teo coming back would help Vlad et al, but so far no bueno. 5/50 and chasing the same pitches off the plate most of the others are. I just think the Leagues have made a big adjustment on how to pitch them, which is made easier they face so many RHH, and then junk from the left side. They should wear the jacket for any ball scorched up the middle or to the right side in the air for awhile, or if they beat the shift.(grasping at straws)

 

Lineup construction is overrated if your guys can actually hit. The 2015 lineup absolutely murdered RHP and their best lefty bats were like Ben Revere and Ryan Goins.

[Spanky99]

I don't have access to the full article but based off the headline this is some ********. If I worked for the team I would be demanding to know what balls are used for which games and what the process is for determining that.

 

Agreed, that's some shady s***... players have complained that the balls that fly(err normal) are being used exclusively to National audiences, IE: the Peacock/Apple games and SNB.

[Spanky99]

Bo has been completely fine since the start of May, his numbers are starting to climb towards career norms.

 

Springer has been good/as expected.

 

Teo has been awful.

 

Gurriel has been awful.

 

Chapman has been slightly underperforming if you think he’s just the 2020/2021 version going forward.

 

Vlad has been seriously disappointing. Its looking more and more like like 2021 was the outlier and 2019/2020 is more what he is. Obviously you expect him to regress a bit from 2021, but you also expect him to improve as he ages… however he’s taken a massive step back this season compared to last year.

 

Vlad has a 98 wRC+ in the month of May and only 3 extra base hits. (1 homer and 2 doubles). That’s like Eric Hosmer level. He’s not hitting for any power whatsoever.

 

Espinal has been great though so that’s nice to see.

 

I was with you until the Vlad comment, c'mon bro. These guys are pressing man, Vlad admitted it the other day in an article I read. It has to turn around.

[Terminator]

Agreed, that's some shady s***... players have complained that the balls that fly(err normal) are being used exclusively to National audiences, IE: the Peacock/Apple games and SNB.

 

Put your tinfoil hat on for a second but Romano has looked good pretty much all year except for the game against the Yankees where we all thought he was severely injured.

 

But it turns out he just couldn't grip the ball? Did other pitchers that game have problems gripping a slippery ball? Or was a slippery ball just used by Romano in the 9th? Because if that's the case that would be absolute ******** even if it were completely unintentional.

[BigCecil]

Lineup construction is overrated if your guys can actually hit. The 2015 lineup absolutely murdered RHP and their best lefty bats were like Ben Revere and Ryan Goins.

 

What were the team splits vs LHP and RHP? I think in the playoffs, that success vs RHP ground came to a halt. We didn't win.

 

We did pick up RHH bat cause we were struggling vs LHP but they released him over Collabello. Guy was a cancer. Danny Valencia.

 

 

1. Pens and pitchers are even better and more specialized than 2015 (nevermind this ball). 94 now is the avg 4S FB and tons of wipe out breaking balls. I think we are seeing the evidence of the impact of this against our bats.

 

2. #1 gets worse in the playoffs, if you get there.

 

3. The main current AL East competition Rays and Yanks have plus pens.

 

4. OTOH in 2016 both Matt Bush and Andrew Miller pretty much owned us. RHP and LHP lol.

 

I agree the most important element is the quality of the hitters, but I'll never buy that being able force the pitcher to handle both sides of the plate impact bats is not a huge advantage in 2022, especially in the playoffs when you face the best.

[keggy]

What were the team splits vs LHP and RHP? I think in the playoffs, that success vs RHP ground came to a halt. We didn't win.

 

We did pick up RHH bat cause we were struggling vs LHP but they released him over Collabello. Guy was a cancer. Danny Valencia.

 

 

1. Pens and pitchers are even better and more specialized than 2015 (nevermind this ball). 94 now is the avg 4S FB and tons of wipe out breaking balls. I think we are seeing the evidence of the impact of this against our bats.

 

2. #1 gets worse in the playoffs, if you get there.

 

3. The main current AL East competition Rays and Yanks have plus pens.

 

4. OTOH in 2016 both Matt Bush and Andrew Miller pretty much owned us. RHP and LHP lol.

 

I agree the most important element is the quality of the hitters, but I'll never buy that being able force the pitcher to handle both sides of the plate impact bats is not a huge advantage in 2022, especially in the playoffs when you face the best.

 

Jays led MLB in total runs, wRC+ against LHP, wRC+ against RHP. The team that year was just an absolute veiny on-base juggernaut.

 

Small ball and roster construction can help once you get to playoffs, but a team that gives Tapia 600 PA doesn't even get there.

[BuffaloWings]

Bo has been completely fine since the start of May, his numbers are starting to climb towards career norms.

 

Springer has been good/as expected.

 

Teo has been awful.

 

Gurriel has been awful.

 

Chapman has been slightly underperforming if you think he’s just the 2020/2021 version going forward.

 

Vlad has been seriously disappointing. Its looking more and more like like 2021 was the outlier and 2019/2020 is more what he is. Obviously you expect him to regress a bit from 2021, but you also expect him to improve as he ages… however he’s taken a massive step back this season compared to last year.

 

Vlad has a 98 wRC+ in the month of May and only 3 extra base hits. (1 homer and 2 doubles). That’s like Eric Hosmer level. He’s not hitting for any power whatsoever.

 

Espinal has been great though so that’s nice to see.

 

 

When you look at his stats thats exactly the sense you get. Maybe not as bad as 2019 Vlad, but very much on par with 2020 Vlad. Incredibly frustrating to watch right now. As you said, he isnt hitting with any power. Getting very tired of watching him hit the ball directly at the 2nd Baseman, and SS everytime he is up.

[gruber92]

Richards facing the top of the line up in a tie game in the eighth. Fingers crossed.

[Spanky99]

Richards facing the top of the line up in a tie game in the eighth. Fingers crossed.

 

yer dumn

[Dagagad]

I think I have a different reaction to this game than most.

 

I thought the at bats were generally good. Not a lot of swinging outside the zone, a few guys hit the ball hard, nothing found gaps or missed gloves.

 

Vlad and Teo are worrisome. Vlad… I don’t know what he needs to do to raise his launch angle. Teo is rolling over everything.

 

I didn’t hate putting in borucki. I wish our bullpen had more swing and miss and less boruckis, but he’s on the roster. He’s supposed to be able to come in and at the very f***ing least not walk sosa. Our front office does not prioritize having a really good bullpen. You cannot blame the manager for using the best leftie he has there.

 

I think Montoyo’s clear weakness is not pulling starters soon enough. Berrios should have been out one hitter after the home run.

[Solaxys]

jfc.

[gruber92]

Has any team in MLB history who was expected to challenge for a WS title, have a manager as our to lunch as Chuckles is?

 

This is all on you Shatkins.

[BigCecil]

Yanks finally lose 3 in a row and we cant close a sweep vs CINN losing 3-2 and then last nights clusterf***.

 

I am still stunned by Borucki choice with the way Phelps was pitching. But hey...again we didn't hit with RISP. Would have closed that game out early if we did.

 

42 gms in the books. Not in "Don't worry, be happy. Its all gonna come around. look at our EVs" mode, especially after missing the playoffs by a gm last year.

[Olerud363]

Yanks finally lose 3 in a row and we cant close a sweep vs CINN losing 3-2 and then last nights clusterf***.

 

I am still stunned by Borucki choice with the way Phelps was pitching. But hey...again we didn't hit with RISP. Would have closed that game out early if we did.

 

42 gms in the books. Not in "Don't worry, be happy. Its all gonna come around. look at our EVs" mode, especially after missing the playoffs by a gm last year.

 

Choosing Borucki is one factor. The way Vlad and Goldschmidt approached their at bats with the bases loaded is another.

 

Goldschmidt and Vlad's current swing mechanics are another factor. Goldschmidt took some pitches and wasn't afraid to be behind in the count. Goldschmidt isn't pounding balls into the dirt right now.

 

Of course Vlad is a more talented hitter (probably) and much more inexperienced but still... the job of the coaching staff is to have these players prepared and performing at their best.

 

I don't see the decision to put Borucki in to be any more or less important than the overall coaching and preparation of the hitters. The latter factor was just as important as the former in this game.

[Laika]

Charlie is annoying but not really THE PROBLEM.

 

THE PROBLEM is the offense. Player performance. Maybe you can scapegoat the hitting coach and the manager but really it's on the players.

 

Last night with Borucki... well Richard, Merryweather, and Cimber were spent already. Phelps was 17 pitches after throwing 21 pitches the day before, so I can see why they wanted to yank him before possibly ruining him. Bad for RP to throw too many pitches back to back.

 

Romano had saves Friday Saturday and just returned from an illness so I can understand preference for him to have two days off. Yimi Garcia blew it the day before and sucks.

 

Borucki shouldn't really be on the team IMO. He's a nightmare and shows no signs of figuring it out.

[Olerud363]

Has any team in MLB history who was expected to challenge for a WS title, have a manager as our to lunch as Chuckles is?

 

This is all on you Shatkins.

 

Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

 

As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

 

(I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).

[Stangstag]

Has any team in MLB history who was expected to challenge for a WS title, have a manager as our to lunch as Chuckles is?

 

This is all on you Shatkins.

 

Dusty maybe? With both the Nats and Astros

[Stangstag]

Charlie is annoying but not really THE PROBLEM.

 

THE PROBLEM is the offense. Player performance. Maybe you can scapegoat the hitting coach and the manager but really it's on the players.

 

Last night with Borucki... well Richard, Merryweather, and Cimber were spent already. Phelps was 17 pitches after throwing 21 pitches the day before, so I can see why they wanted to yank him before possibly ruining him. Bad for RP to throw too many pitches back to back.

 

Romano had saves Friday Saturday and just returned from an illness so I can understand preference for him to have two days off. Yimi Garcia blew it the day before and sucks.

 

Borucki shouldn't really be on the team IMO. He's a nightmare and shows no signs of figuring it out.

 

Agree with this. Almost at that point with Merryweather too. Both guys throw the ball and have no idea where its going

[Stangstag]

Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

 

As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

 

(I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).

 

I recall the Redsox’ massive slide to end the 2011 season and they missed the playoffs by a game.

[Laika]

Has any team had a group of under 30 players implode like this? Bo/Gurriel/Vlad/Teoscar/Kirk/Chapman

 

As a group their average age is 26. They should be at peak performance and have been reduced to rubble.

 

(I'm not saying they are all terrible, Kirk in particular has good at bats (with lack of power)... just as a group it's a mystifying under-performance).

 

Well the most important players are really not peak (27-28). Jansen and Espinal are in there. Tapia is but he's not important.

 

Teoscar and Chapman are, I guess, slightly past their best before dates since they are 29.

 

Springer is way post-peak. Kirk, Vlad, and Bo still have a few years before their physical peaks.

[The Cats Ass]

jfc.

 

This is what Buck Showalter was thinking when he left Zack Britton on the bench in the playoffs extra inning game.

[Dagagad]

Vlad was fine swinging at that pitch. It was a bad breaking ball that found a ton of the plate. That’s not on Charlie.

 

Borucki is on the team because the FO has a calculated strategy of not investing much in the bullpen. We have decided to have a bullpen that projects to be average, that doesn’t generate much swing and miss and is generally cheap. That’s not on Charlie. He can’t not use borucki. Borucki should be able to throw competitive pitches to Sosa.

 

I don’t know what you do with the offense. But honestly, I’m not even sure the offense was the problem in this particular game. I just thought they were generally unlucky. Like vlad hammered that gimme into the ground but sometimes it misses the shortstop, right. We aren’t getting ANY hitting luck AND we are cold.

 

I hope that the people who had good at bats last night were reminded to just do that again and things will happen. Don’t change that approach for most of them.

[Olerud363]

Well the most important players are really not peak (27-28). Jansen and Espinal are in there. Tapia is but he's not important.

 

Teoscar and Chapman are, I guess, slightly past their best before dates since they are 29.

 

Springer is way post-peak. Kirk, Vlad, and Bo still have a few years before their physical peaks.

 

Just saying 'on average' the group is at their peak. Their combined numbers should peak this year.

 

Some day Bo will be 27 and Vlad 26, but Teoscar will be 32 then... this year those 6 theoretically should have their best WAR.

 

I may be cherry picking for my narrative by not including Espinal and Jansen... but I didn't really have those guys penciled as core pieces coming into the season.

 

Probably the best thing to do is not get too fancy, include all the players including Springer, Espinal and Jansen and measure underperformance.

 

So the position players probably were projected for 30 WAR and are on pace for 15.

[connorp]

jfc.

 

I was reading an Elon Musk article and saw there’s no edit button for Twitter. Pretty brutal for professionals tweeting as their job. If you’re a big name, sure, you get a pass but some random guy like this it reflects poorly on imo. I know I have to edit like 2/3 of my posts here as I use my cell exclusively

[Laika]

Just saying 'on average' the group is at their peak. Their combined numbers should peak this year.

 

Some day Bo will be 27 and Vlad 26, but Teoscar will be 32 then... this year those 6 theoretically should have their best WAR.

 

I may be cherry picking for my narrative by not including Espinal and Jansen... but I didn't really have those guys penciled as core pieces coming into the season.

 

Probably the best thing to do is not get too fancy, include all the players including Springer, Espinal and Jansen and measure underperformance.

 

So the position players probably were projected for 30 WAR and are on pace for 15.

 

They are of course underperforming, I am not disputing that, but it does not make any sense to thing of the average age of the team.

 

You need to place every specific player in the appropriate bucket.

 

Think of the extreme example. Player A is 20 and Player B is 34. The team has an average age of 27. Does that team have the same performance variance as a team with all 27 year olds?

[Olerud363]

Vlad was fine swinging at that pitch. It was a bad breaking ball that found a ton of the plate. That’s not on Charlie.

 

Borucki is on the team because the FO has a calculated strategy of not investing much in the bullpen. We have decided to have a bullpen that projects to be average, that doesn’t generate much swing and miss and is generally cheap. That’s not on Charlie. He can’t not use borucki. Borucki should be able to throw competitive pitches to Sosa.

 

I don’t know what you do with the offense. But honestly, I’m not even sure the offense was the problem in this particular game. I just thought they were generally unlucky. Like vlad hammered that gimme into the ground but sometimes it misses the shortstop, right. We aren’t getting ANY hitting luck AND we are cold.

 

I hope that the people who had good at bats last night were reminded to just do that again and things will happen. Don’t change that approach for most of them.

 

 

I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem"

 

And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."

[Dagagad]

I think it's reasonable to ask sort of dumb questions and get the smarter people thinking. Like if I was Rogers I'd be like "How come this Vlad guy had .600 slugging last year and is .400 this year. Why'd he hit a groundball with the bases loaded and the Goldie guy got it in the air no problem"

 

And they'd be like 'Well in the long run Goldie hits grounders too... and it's a long season... and... well there is a bit of truth in what you say. Vladdy's grounder rate is higher then we'd like this year. We should get the swing mechanic guys to take a closer look."

 

Yea, I’d agree with that. I’d hope they are spending time trying to get vlad right.

[Olerud363]

They are of course underperforming, I am not disputing that, but it does not make any sense to thing of the average age of the team.

 

You need to place every specific player in the appropriate bucket.

 

Think of the extreme example. Player A is 20 and Player B is 34. The team has an average age of 27. Does that team have the same performance variance as a team with all 27 year olds?

 

If you weight it by playing time your team will always peak around age 27. Just weight the 20 year old that is barely playing, or still in aa, 0. Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran had their combined peak at 27 in 2012, when Trout was 20 and Beltran 34.

 

Look at the question this way. Every group of players has a year when they are expected to peak together. For Ryan Tapia and Babe Ruth that would be around 1923. What year were Chapman/Gurriel/Guerrero/Bichette/Kirk and Hernandez expected to peak if you modelled it pre-season?

 

Maybe the projection System already had them peaking in 2021.