General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Olerud363]

Being forced to choose between the lesser of two evils isnÂ’t an ideal scenario to say the least.

 

There were many people here engaging in a circle jerk of TapiaÂ’s potential. Easy to dump on it at this point

 

They seem to be trying to be too clever with Tapia. If there are no other choices they should have just mixed Biggio in there too and split the plate appearances between them until one ran with the job, or they acquired something better.

 

Seems like they over-scouted/data-crunched this thinking Biggio is worse than his standard stats and Tapia better.

[glory]

What about freaking Biggio? The algorithm should have been give Kirk and Biggio most of the at bats that have gone to Tapia. Then adjust June 1st if needed. Give the guys who have potential to get on base the chance to fail.

 

I think they got too fancy with Biggio, and the Keith Law 'can't hit the fastball' crap. They predicted failure and replaced him with a player who also is a failure. They should have let Biggio play... and if he failed deal with it. Predicting Biggio's failure and at the same time predicting success for Tapia was a terrible play.

 

Agreed. I'm not sure we are going to see 2019-20 Biggio again with the dead ball, but he at least has some track record of being good in the past. Tapia has been awful for years. Collins has been awful for years. Zimmer can't hit. The real problem is the team not getting another hitter in the off season when everyone knew it was a glaring hole. Now they have to hope to hold their heads above water until that happens at the deadline.

[Krylian]

Shorting fish in a barrel, as my old friend would say

 

Is this a stock market saying? I like it.

[Olerud363]

Agreed. I'm not sure we are going to see 2019-20 Biggio again with the dead ball, but he at least has some track record of being good in the past. Tapia has been awful for years. Collins has been awful for years. Zimmer can't hit. The real problem is the team not getting another hitter in the off season when everyone knew it was a glaring hole. Now they have to hope to hold their heads above water until that happens at the deadline.

 

Diamond Backs - who is their Catcher? They have a lot of left handed hitters some young?

 

Could you and would you trade Moreno for Alek Thomas or Corbin Carrol and call up the latter (Thomas is already up) ?

 

Would you try to get Varsho, Peralto, or Pavin Smith somehow?

 

Could you make a fair trade where the Jays give up a top prospect, but get Corbin or Thomas, and also add in other pieces and get one of the other lefty outfielders?

 

Is there a way the diamond backs can help us get 2 left handers hitters and we can help them?

[BigCecil]

Agreed. I'm not sure we are going to see 2019-20 Biggio again with the dead ball, but he at least has some track record of being good in the past. Tapia has been awful for years. Collins has been awful for years. Zimmer can't hit. The real problem is the team not getting another hitter in the off season when everyone knew it was a glaring hole. Now they have to hope to hold their heads above water until that happens at the deadline.

 

I have more faith in upside from Biggio than I do with Tapia. It's dereliction of duty by the FO to give him so many at bats in a supposed win now season. He does virtually nothing well. We needed a LHH impact bat (s) and we didn't get it. Marcus left which was a lot of our production (I know he has been awful in TEX). People can say it's early but it's not. Yes, we can get hot and go on a blistering streak. That's not a strategy. That's a rose coloured glasses prayer. Yesterday was a great opportunity to move up a game and we blew it. Again. We know these guys are going to improve and normalize (whatever that is, to take Olerud's point) but the Division may be gone by then. A one and done wild card game can't be our objective.

[Stangstag]

I have more faith in upside from Biggio than I do with Tapia. It's dereliction of duty by the FO to give him so many at bats in a supposed win now season. He does virtually nothing well. We needed a LHH impact bat (s) and we didn't get it. Marcus left which was a lot of our production (I know he has been awful in TEX). People can say it's early but it's not. Yes, we can get hot and go on a blistering streak. That's not a strategy. That's a rose coloured glasses prayer. Yesterday was a great opportunity to move up a game and we blew it. Again. We know these guys are going to improve and normalize (whatever that is, to take Olerud's point) but the Division may be gone by then. A one and done wild card game can't be our objective.

 

The wildcard game is gone now. Playoff structure now is:

 

2 best records get a bye to the ALDS

4 wildcard teams each get a best of 3 series (the 2 teams with the better records get home field advantage for all 3 games)

 

So basically unless we have a top 2 record in the AL, we’ll have a 3 game series vs one of the Whitesox/Rays/Angels/Astros.

[Stangstag]

And to clarify, YES. That means even if you win the division you potentially still have to play a wildcard series before the ALDS if you aren’t a top 2 team.

 

Unless im wrong on this, but that’s what I read

Edited May 23, 2022 by Stangstag

[connorp]

Is this a stock market saying? I like it.

 

I stole it from a poster here back in the day. It was his trademark.

[Terminator]

lol... too thick man.

 

I appreciate the feedback. I've got some doozies planned though so keep an eye out!

[JaysAllMighty]

Our balls are cursed

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74713/moonshot-2022-baseball-variable-drag-inconsistency/?utm_source=Baseball+Prospectus&utm_campaign=3ed3706556-2022-05-23+BP+Basic+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1613350d6d-3ed3706556-370617884&mc_cid=3ed3706556&mc_eid=558ae0dfb3

[Solaxys]

So what's the over/under today with STL sending their # 2 (playing like an Ace) with 1.68 ERA and hasn't given up more than 2 ER even in his losses.

I feel like today might be a wash/miracle victory.

[Olerud363]

Our balls are cursed

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74713/moonshot-2022-baseball-variable-drag-inconsistency/?utm_source=Baseball+Prospectus&utm_campaign=3ed3706556-2022-05-23+BP+Basic+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1613350d6d-3ed3706556-370617884&mc_cid=3ed3706556&mc_eid=558ae0dfb3

 

I remember the second game of the mid August double header against the Red Sox.

 

Verdugo hit a high fly ball to center, looked deep but playable and it some how went 415 1 foot over the fence. In the bottom of the 7th Vlad hammered a ball, looked gone and it went 410 caught at the top of the wall.

 

That game haunted me as much as the Semien throw in the dirt against Detroit. I wander if Vlad got a dead ball and Verdugo a lively one.

 

How hard would it be for smart teams to try and get the deadballs in play when they are pitching? Just slip one to the pitcher warming up... or is the umpire in complete control there making sure no funny business is happening?

[Terminator]

Our balls are cursed

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74713/moonshot-2022-baseball-variable-drag-inconsistency/?utm_source=Baseball+Prospectus&utm_campaign=3ed3706556-2022-05-23+BP+Basic+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1613350d6d-3ed3706556-370617884&mc_cid=3ed3706556&mc_eid=558ae0dfb3

 

I don't have access to the full article but based off the headline this is some ********. If I worked for the team I would be demanding to know what balls are used for which games and what the process is for determining that.

[BigCecil]

The wildcard game is gone now. Playoff structure now is:

 

2 best records get a bye to the ALDS

4 wildcard teams each get a best of 3 series (the 2 teams with the better records get home field advantage for all 3 games)

 

So basically unless we have a top 2 record in the AL, we’ll have a 3 game series vs one of the Whitesox/Rays/Angels/Astros.

 

Thanks. I was in Grandpa Ranty mode this am and didn't even stop to think about that. Totally forgot. 3 better than 1. Still. This team can win the f***ing Division and lets do that.

 

My kingdom for an impact LHH (s), and thats probably what it would cost right now. We kind of hoped Teo coming back would help Vlad et al, but so far no bueno. 5/50 and chasing the same pitches off the plate most of the others are. I just think the Leagues have made a big adjustment on how to pitch them, which is made easier they face so many RHH, and then junk from the left side. They should wear the jacket for any ball scorched up the middle or to the right side in the air for awhile, or if they beat the shift.(grasping at straws)

 

Makes me think back so fondly about WAMCO. Should have been something more like AMOCW but it was still a devastatingly balanced top of the order. Wonder what it would sans Cito in todays game?

[Terminator]

And to clarify, YES. That means even if you win the division you potentially still have to play a wildcard series before the ALDS if you aren’t a top 2 team.

 

Unless im wrong on this, but that’s what I read

 

What if the Yankees win the division and have the best record but the Jays end up with the 2nd best record in the AL? Do we still get a bye or is that reserved for division winners only?

[Stangstag]

What if the Yankees win the division and have the best record but the Jays end up with the 2nd best record in the AL? Do we still get a bye or is that reserved for division winners only?

 

Seeding goes:

 

1 - division winner with best record

2 - division winner with 2nd best record

Both get a bye

 

3 - division winner

4-5-6 are seeded based on record

[Olerud363]

Thanks. I was in Grandpa Ranty mode this am and didn't even stop to think about that. Totally forgot. 3 better than 1. Still. This team can win the f***ing Division and lets do that.

 

My kingdom for an impact LHH (s), and thats probably what it would cost right now. We kind of hoped Teo coming back would help Vlad et al, but so far no bueno. 5/50 and chasing the same pitches off the plate most of the others are. I just think the Leagues have made a big adjustment on how to pitch them, which is made easier they face so many RHH, and then junk from the left side. They should wear the jacket for any ball scorched up the middle or to the right side in the air for awhile, or if they beat the shift.(grasping at straws)

 

Makes me think back so fondly about WAMCO. Should have been something more like AMOCW but it was still a devastatingly balanced top of the order. Wonder what it would sans Cito in todays game?

 

It would be an unusual challenge trade but it would be great to turn Moreno into a top 20 left handed hitting outfield prospect.

 

Is there a modern day equivalent of John Olerud? Former batting champion, midway in between his two .350 seasons hitting a 'disappointing' .295 .390 .480 or so, that would be available for Ross Stripling?

 

That is literally what happened to Olerud.

[BuffaloWings]

Was listening to The Athletic's Blue Jays Podcast last week and one of the guys on the show said he predicts the Blue Jays will finally turn it around when Matt Chapman starts hitting. I found that a bit random and a tad bizarre because no one should be that surprised at how Chapman is hitting right now. He has never been a contact guy, in fact his BA has went down every year since his 2018 season. The guy is great in the field, and adds to it with power hitting here and there.

 

I also see a lot of blame being put on guys like Tapia, Zimmer, Heineman etc. but the bottom line is the Blue Jays are going to go the way of their stars. Springer is giving you about what you'd expect from him, his power numbers are down but he is also older. You cant keep getting what you're getting from Bo, Teoscar, Gurriel and Vladdy and expect to be a legitimate contender this year. Bo has shown something the last few games, Teoscar is recovering from being hurt, but man you really have to start worrying about Vladdy at this point. He hasn't hit a homer in the last 14 games. His numbers this year on average look a lot like the 2020 season. As currently constructed I dont think the team has enough fire power to keep up with or beat the Angels, Yankees, or Astros in a playoff series.

[Spanky__99]

I stole it from a poster here back in the day. It was his trademark.

 

He's making fun of your post, dummy. *shorting* Try and keep up.

[connorp]

He's making fun of your post, dummy. *shorting* Try and keep up.

 

I mean I know it’s sure thing. I kinda got the stock market thing in that way. Curious how the guy picked it up though. I remember him fondly as a fellow anti-establishment guy

[Spanky__99]

Being forced to choose between the lesser of two evils isn’t an ideal scenario to say the least.

 

There were many people here engaging in a circle jerk of Tapia’s potential. Easy to dump on it at this point

 

No, no there wasn't. Many people were hoping for an addition to that trade.

[Stangstag]

Was listening to The Athletic's Blue Jays Podcast last week and one of the guys on the show said he predicts the Blue Jays will finally turn it around when Matt Chapman starts hitting. I found that a bit random and a tad bizarre because no one should be that surprised at how Chapman is hitting right now. He has never been a contact guy, in fact his BA has went down every year since his 2018 season. The guy is great in the field, and adds to it with power hitting here and there.

 

I also see a lot of blame being put on guys like Tapia, Zimmer, Heineman etc. but the bottom line is the Blue Jays are going to go the way of their stars. Springer is giving you about what you'd expect from him, his power numbers are down but he is also older. You cant keep getting what you're getting from Bo, Teoscar, Gurriel and Vladdy and expect to be a legitimate contender this year. Bo has shown something the last few games, Teoscar is recovering from being hurt, but man you really have to start worrying about Vladdy at this point. He hasn't hit a homer in the last 14 games. His numbers this year on average look a lot like the 2020 season. As currently constructed I dont think the team has enough fire power to keep up with or beat the Angels, Yankees, or Astros in a playoff series.

 

Bo has been completely fine since the start of May, his numbers are starting to climb towards career norms.

 

Springer has been good/as expected.

 

Teo has been awful.

 

Gurriel has been awful.

 

Chapman has been slightly underperforming if you think he’s just the 2020/2021 version going forward.

 

Vlad has been seriously disappointing. Its looking more and more like like 2021 was the outlier and 2019/2020 is more what he is. Obviously you expect him to regress a bit from 2021, but you also expect him to improve as he ages… however he’s taken a massive step back this season compared to last year.

 

Vlad has a 98 wRC+ in the month of May and only 3 extra base hits. (1 homer and 2 doubles). That’s like Eric Hosmer level. He’s not hitting for any power whatsoever.

 

Espinal has been great though so that’s nice to see.

[Stangstag]

In May, Espinal has more extra base hits than Vladimir f***ing Guerrero.

 

Nuts. Kinda shows how good and bad each guy has been

[Terminator]

Vlad has been seriously disappointing. Its looking more and more like like 2021 was the outlier and 2019/2020 is more what he is. Obviously you expect him to regress a bit from 2021, but you also expect him to improve as he ages… however he’s taken a massive step back this season compared to last year.

 

Oh dear god let's pray that's not true...

[Solaxys]

Was listening to The Athletic's Blue Jays Podcast last week and one of the guys on the show said he predicts the Blue Jays will finally turn it around when Matt Chapman starts hitting. I found that a bit random and a tad bizarre because no one should be that surprised at how Chapman is hitting right now. He has never been a contact guy, in fact his BA has went down every year since his 2018 season. The guy is great in the field, and adds to it with power hitting here and there.

 

I also see a lot of blame being put on guys like Tapia, Zimmer, Heineman etc. but the bottom line is the Blue Jays are going to go the way of their stars. Springer is giving you about what you'd expect from him, his power numbers are down but he is also older. You cant keep getting what you're getting from Bo, Teoscar, Gurriel and Vladdy and expect to be a legitimate contender this year. Bo has shown something the last few games, Teoscar is recovering from being hurt, but man you really have to start worrying about Vladdy at this point. He hasn't hit a homer in the last 14 games. His numbers this year on average look a lot like the 2020 season. As currently constructed I dont think the team has enough fire power to keep up with or beat the Angels, Yankees, or Astros in a playoff series.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/

 

Good read regarding Chapman.

 

TL;DR: Chapman has the major’s third-highest average exit velocity on fly balls, and he’s in the top dozen in both projected distance and xwOBA, but those shots just aren’t doing the damage that’s expected. Perhaps as temperatures rise, he’ll have better carry and better luck.

Based on his EV, Launch Angle, Distance etc, his expected AVG on flyballs should be .364, expected SLG should be 1.370, xwOBA .729; he is basically a combined -0.481 on those metrics to his live stats.

 

That doesn't obviously let him off the hook for chasing sliders in 3-2 counts in bases loaded situations, every single time he is up in such instances. Instead of playing protect the plate for fastballs and taking a walk on anything off-plate, but it is something to understand that of all the people on our team, he has been the most gibbed.

[Stangstag]

Oh dear god let's pray that's not true...

 

Im just glad they didn’t choose to extend him yet. Lets see if he can replicate 2021 before talking about 300 million.

[connorp]

No, no there wasn't. Many people were hoping for an addition to that trade.

 

Lots of positive reactions. Just re-read. I’m not saying Matt Chapman-level fapping but lots of “he’ll fit nice here”.. upgrade from RG”… “unlocked potential” etc

[Solaxys]

Matt Chapman should basically have been somewhere in the 7-9 slot of the batting order type of guy; this lineup, however, has been so thin that he can be put into spot 5. Not his fault nor the fault of what he was projected to add.

 

That's the story of this whole season though; we're trying to identify scapegoats for something systemic.

 

Espinal/Chapman/[Tapia/Zimmer/Gurriel] were basically your 7-8-9 and that would've been completely fine if the other 6 slots were filled/producing, which is just not happening.

[Spanky__99]

Agreed. I'm not sure we are going to see 2019-20 Biggio again with the dead ball, but he at least has some track record of being good in the past. Tapia has been awful for years. Collins has been awful for years. Zimmer can't hit. The real problem is the team not getting another hitter in the off season when everyone knew it was a glaring hole. Now they have to hope to hold their heads above water until that happens at the deadline.

 

Why do you keep bringing up Collins, he's had 10 PA's since May 7th, he was acquired to hold steady while Jano was injured? I agree that El Capitan and Jano should be playing far more over Tapia with a 3rd catcher on the roster. Thing is Lourdes and Teoscar were injured, and LGJ has been nursing said Hammy injury currently, so more Tapia(ughh)... Biggio should be back up soon as our 4th OF option, we need the help. The problem has been the offense so far from Teo/LGJ/Chappy and Vlad's power lately... although Chapman and Vlad are still hitting the ball hard, so I ain't sweating that part yet. Wish we had acquired the extra OF bat, Tapia and Zimmer are awful. Depth wasn't acquired, and it's shining through, lets hope the bats wake up, like yesterday. A few days ago I mentioned signing Upton, but the Mariner's signed him... that bothered me a bit. Ah well... we'll see, s*** HAS to turn around. RIGHT???

[Spanky__99]

Lots of positive reactions. Just re-read. I’m not saying Matt Chapman-level fapping but lots of “he’ll fit nice here”.. upgrade from RG”… “unlocked potential” etc

 

I did, there's not many... just hopeful dreams bro. Everyone knows Tapia is/was s***.