Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

Around Baseball 2022

Deadpool

By Deadpool
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Final Attendance figures Sad to see alot of good baseball not attended.

 

Jays were 8th

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance?fbclid=IwAR2YgP6XLnqZt3aachlSReEBxworjF-91jLipYbhl4h_GfqnOy1daxbi4lE

 

 

2013 14th

2014 17th

2015 8th

2016 3rd

2017 5th

2018 13th

2019 22nd

2020 ignore

2021 ignore

2022 8th

 

bullish trend!

 

a playoff run this year would possibly create multiple years of solid and exciting attendance

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
2013 14th

2014 17th

2015 8th

2016 3rd

2017 5th

2018 13th

2019 22nd

2020 ignore

2021 ignore

2022 8th

 

bullish trend!

 

a playoff run this year would possibly create multiple years of solid and exciting attendance

 

I can tell you that minor baseball in Ontario could REALLY use a long playoff run and some sustained winning by the Jays. COVID had a huge impact on youth baseball unfortunately (youth hockey also).

glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
It's time to cut down to stadiums with a max of 30-35k people.

 

Probably a good idea. Not surprisingly attendance and quality of team seem to go hand in hand, with the usual exceptions (Rays and surprisingly the Guardians but we will see if they get a jump next season based on 2022). The better the team, the better the attendance, but MLB has a tanking problem. Teams that are bad are usually really bad and are doing so intentionally. Trying to get 40-50k in a stadium to watch the Royals, Reds, Tigers, Pirates, Marlins, A’s, etc, for 81 games a year in this economy is kind of unreasonable, and that’s going to drag the total figures down.

 

I really don’t see a way to solve this other than to have more good teams in the league at once, but that’s hard to predict year to year. It’s also possible that in some markets baseball has just lost popularity, and we have to adjust expectations for attendance accordingly. Cleveland in particular should have had much better attendance this year even factoring the low expectations heading into the season.

Edited by glory
Spanky__99 FCL Blue Jays

Spanky__99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Probably a good idea. Not surprisingly attendance and quality of team seem to go hand in hand, with the usual exceptions (Rays and surprisingly the Guardians but we will see if they get a jump next season based on 2022). The better the team, the better the attendance, but MLB has a tanking problem. Teams that are bad are usually really bad and are doing so intentionally. Trying to get 40-50k in a stadium to watch the Royals, Reds, Tigers, Pirates, Marlins, A’s, etc, for 81 games a year in this economy is kind of unreasonable, and that’s going to drag the total figures down.

 

I really don’t see a way to solve this other than to have more good teams in the league at once, but that’s hard to predict year to year. It’s also possible that in some markets baseball has just lost popularity, and we have to adjust expectations for attendance accordingly. Cleveland in particular should have had much better attendance this year even factoring the low expectations heading into the season.

 

I legit knew glory was going to jump in and splooge us with this rhetoric, now that is lame. I'll be happy and croak when baseball decides to croak, ain't happening in our lifetime.

glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I legit knew glory was going to jump in and splooge us with this rhetoric, now that is lame. I'll be happy and croak when baseball decides to croak, ain't happening in our lifetime.

 

What the hell are you talking about? I was responding to the attendance numbers and agreeing with lowering the stadium seating, then gave my reasons for that. I never said baseball was dying or anything. I notice you get upset when I (not anyone else, just me) talk about the business side of baseball. I'll keep doing it just because I know you enjoy it so much. Although judging by the time stamp of when you posted this and what you posted on the game day thread at 3 in the morning, I'm guessing you were probably under the influence.

jaysblue Buffalo Bisons

jaysblue

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
And both Florida teams

 

Not Miami. They'll be Postseason contenders soon.

 

As for the Rays, they need to build a new ballpark. Build it either along the waterfront of St. Petersburg where all the nightlife/restaurants are or completely move to Tampa.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Not Miami. They'll be Postseason contenders soon.

 

As for the Rays, they need to build a new ballpark. Build it either along the waterfront of St. Petersburg where all the nightlife/restaurants are or completely move to Tampa.

 

Im almost certain Miami will still be bottom 10 in attendance even when they are competing. Florida is just a s***** state for MLB. The world baseball classic is the craziest i’ve ever seen Marlins park.

jaysblue Buffalo Bisons

jaysblue

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
That Strider contract is probably a good comparable to what Manoah will/should get.

 

Yeah it's a good benchmark, though Strider is still a better arm moving forward IMO.

 

Some risks signing Manoah long term. He's been solid but I think you can expect some regression moving forward: 4.17 xFIP in 2021 and 3.98 xFIP in 2022. He's still a solid starter but don't think we'll see him with an ERA in the low 2's again. I don't think he's an ace and I hope the Jays don't pay him like one. Not crazy about locking him up long term right now.

keggy Draft Eligible

keggy

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
That Strider contract is probably a good comparable to what Manoah will/should get.

 

I don't think Anthopoulos' moves have any comparables. No executive in baseball has done what he's done with value contracts.

THANOS FCL Blue Jays

THANOS

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah it's a good benchmark, though Strider is still a better arm moving forward IMO.

 

Some risks signing Manoah long term. He's been solid but I think you can expect some regression moving forward: 4.17 xFIP in 2021 and 3.98 xFIP in 2022. He's still a solid starter but don't think we'll see him with an ERA in the low 2's again. I don't think he's an ace and I hope the Jays don't pay him like one. Not crazy about locking him up long term right now.

 

I agree. Unless he can increase the K/9 while decreasing the BB/9, you can't comp him to Strider.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I agree. Unless he can increase the K/9 while decreasing the BB/9, you can't comp him to Strider.

 

So you’re saying Manoah is worth less than 75mil/6yrs today? I’d say thats a decent ballpark figure for him right now, considering track record and years of control remaining.

 

Obviously Strider is a superior pitcher but he has 130 innings in the major vs Manoah’s 300 innings

jaysblue Buffalo Bisons

jaysblue

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So you’re saying Manoah is worth less than 75mil/6yrs today? I’d say thats a decent ballpark figure for him right now, considering track record and years of control remaining.

 

Obviously Strider is a superior pitcher but he has 130 innings in the major vs Manoah’s 300 innings

 

It's a decent benchmark for sure, but do you think locking up Manoah to that money & years right now is a huge priority or necessary?

 

If Manoah lets say all of a sudden regresses a bit next season, which most likely he will, and posts an ERA closer to 4 with low K numbers and higher BB numbers, or even suffers through a major injury during the duration of that contract. There is a lot of risk. I'm not crazy for giving Manoah an extension at this time anyways. Still have him under control for 4 more years and go from there. Whereas Strider has ace type upside which is why AA locked him up this early. Manoah likely settles in as a No. 2 or 3 starter moving forward.

AMS528 Draft Eligible

AMS528

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
It's a decent benchmark for sure, but do you think locking up Manoah to that money & years right now is a huge priority or necessary?

 

If Manoah lets say all of a sudden regresses a bit next season, which most likely he will, and posts an ERA closer to 4 with low K numbers and higher BB numbers, or even suffers through a major injury during the duration of that contract. There is a lot of risk. I'm not crazy for giving Manoah an extension at this time anyways. Still have him under control for 4 more years and go from there. Whereas Strider has ace type upside which is why AA locked him up this early. Manoah likely settles in as a No. 2 or 3 starter moving forward.

 

There's more numbers out there now than xFIP and FIP and I think they indicate reasons that Manoah's performance isn't likely to drop that much. His xERA was really good and his statcast numbers seem to bear out that batters have a tough time getting good hard contact of off him.

 

He's 300 innings in here, this isn't a rookie season sample size anymore. And he loosk very durable which is value in itself. Expecting a low 3 era does not seem unreasonable and doing that consistently is pretty elite.

 

The fact that he ramps up as innings go on can't really be quantified in numbers but I feel like that's also an indication of a guy who is not having to strain himself. And I have no proof of this, but I feel like pitchers who can throw faster once they're deeper in games are less likely to get hit hard the third time through the order.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's a decent benchmark for sure, but do you think locking up Manoah to that money & years right now is a huge priority or necessary?

 

If Manoah lets say all of a sudden regresses a bit next season, which most likely he will, and posts an ERA closer to 4 with low K numbers and higher BB numbers, or even suffers through a major injury during the duration of that contract. There is a lot of risk. I'm not crazy for giving Manoah an extension at this time anyways. Still have him under control for 4 more years and go from there. Whereas Strider has ace type upside which is why AA locked him up this early. Manoah likely settles in as a No. 2 or 3 starter moving forward.

 

I always err on the side of caution when talking about extending a player. Almost always better to wait and see how things play out. Not saying Manoah should be extended or not, just commenting on the Strider extension really and what a Manoah one might look like.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Blue Jays community on the internet.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    20,995
    Total Members
    48,845
    Most Online
    Wayne P
    Newest Member
    Wayne P
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...