Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Olerud363]

Looks like there are Steamer updates up...

 

I'm a little confused as to how and when the Steamer updates roll in to Fangraphs. Looks like until recently the Steamer 2022 projections were the 2022 projections based on stats up to 2020, and the Steamer600 were preliminary 2022 projections based on stats up to 2021.

 

However the 2022 projections under the main Steamer link have now changed to reflect 2021 stats. The rate stats are similar (but not exactly the same) as Steamer600. The playing time is now realistic.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players=

 

Looks like Vlad 5.7 WAR, Bo 4.6, both almost as good as in 2021

Semien 4.0 WAR

 

Berrios 3.4 WAR, Ray 3.3

[connorp]

WAR is WAR I guess but not great hitting numbers for Semein. Gloves are off for Teo’s bat

[max silver]

WAR is WAR I guess but not great hitting numbers for Semein. Gloves are off for Teo’s bat

 

Wonky projections like these are why I really don't place much faith in projection systems. Since his breakout Teoscar has produced a 135 WRC+ in 260 games, over portions of 3 seasons dating back to 2019. Yet Steamer still projects him as a 110 WRC+ bat. Similarly Semien experienced an offensive breakout in 2019, and over his last 377 games he's produced a 128 WRC+. Yet he is projected for a 112 WRC+.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Orelvis Martinez, Alejandro Kirk, Nate Pearson for Jose Ramirez

 

Who says no?

[Olerud363]

Wonky projections like these are why I really don't place much faith in projection systems. Since his breakout Teoscar has produced a 135 WRC+ in 260 games, over portions of 3 seasons dating back to 2019. Yet Steamer still projects him as a 110 WRC+ bat. Similarly Semien experienced an offensive breakout in 2019, and over his last 377 games he's produced a 128 WRC+. Yet he is projected for a 112 WRC+.

 

Semien projection makes sense. Career average with recent years weighted a bit more.

 

Teoscar and Gurriel's projections are a bit harder to justify. 28 and 29 year old hitting below career averages? Teoscar is perhaps penalized because of k-rate...

 

Can't really figure out why Gurriel would be projected lower than career rates... he doesn't have a super high k rate. Maybe the system is also weighting in his minor league numbers which are actually super-crappy.

[Stangstag]

Looks like there are Steamer updates up...

 

I'm a little confused as to how and when the Steamer updates roll in to Fangraphs. Looks like until recently the Steamer 2022 projections were the 2022 projections based on stats up to 2020, and the Steamer600 were preliminary 2022 projections based on stats up to 2021.

 

However the 2022 projections under the main Steamer link have now changed to reflect 2021 stats. The rate stats are similar (but not exactly the same) as Steamer600. The playing time is now realistic.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players=

 

Looks like Vlad 5.7 WAR, Bo 4.6, both almost as good as in 2021

Semien 4.0 WAR

 

Berrios 3.4 WAR, Ray 3.3

 

Kirk with the projected 120 wRC+ is nice to see

[Jays24]

Orelvis Martinez, Alejandro Kirk, Nate Pearson for Jose Ramirez

 

Who says no?

 

I have a serious question here. Of course Jose Ramirez makes us a much better team for the next 2 years based on his contract.

 

However, do we reach a point where we have too many players on our team that we just can't afford long term that it doesn't make sense to mortgage our young talent for? Assuming we keep Semien and Ray, do you still want to make this trade thinking that there is very little chance we can actually keep Jose after 2 years.

 

The whole plan Shatkins have been pushing is having a balance of experienced vets with controllable cost effective young talent.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I have a serious question here. Of course Jose Ramirez makes us a much better team for the next 2 years based on his contract.

 

However, do we reach a point where we have too many players on our team that we just can't afford long term that it doesn't make sense to mortgage our young talent for? Assuming we keep Semien and Ray, do you still want to make this trade thinking that there is very little chance we can actually keep Jose after 2 years.

 

The whole plan Shatkins have been pushing is having a balance of experienced vets with controllable cost effective young talent.

 

That's a very good question for sure.

 

That would be my biggest worry, keeping Ramirez more than two years may not be possible, and if it is its going to cost you a lot of money and you may have to let another core piece walk as a result.

 

We have some of those worries right now with Berrios.

[Jimcanuck]

Orelvis Martinez, Alejandro Kirk, Nate Pearson for Jose Ramirez

 

Who says no?

 

Nah, this is the kind of deal you make for a short window of contention approach. Prefer the longer term window of excitement.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nah, this is the kind of deal you make for a short window of contention approach. Prefer the longer term window of excitement.

 

 

I sort of lean this way too. I don't think Semien will be back, just my opinion. So do the Jays roll with Espinal/Smith at 3rd base and Biggio/Lopez at 2nd base and wait for Moreno/Martinez and Groshans to arrive? Meanwhile pour the FA dollars into pitching for now? Not a bad idea I don't think. They will score lots of runs even without Semien, but they need to add 2 or 3 quality starting pitchers and 2 or 3 solid high leverage relievers.

 

Of course, they could go with a cheaper 3B addition also. Don't have to break the bank for Ramirez.

[Spanky99]

Nah, this is the kind of deal you make for a short window of contention approach. Prefer the longer term window of excitement.

 

Agreed, although I wouldn't be upset.

 

Jays have to spend, and it sounds like they will.

[Spanky99]

I sort of lean this way too. I don't think Semien will be back, just my opinion. So do the Jays roll with Espinal/Smith at 3rd base and Biggio/Lopez at 2nd base and wait for Moreno/Martinez and Groshans to arrive? Meanwhile pour the FA dollars into pitching for now? Not a bad idea I don't think. They will score lots of runs even without Semien, but they need to add 2 or 3 quality starting pitchers and 2 or 3 solid high leverage relievers.

 

Of course, they could go with a cheaper 3B addition also. Don't have to break the bank for Ramirez.

 

There's plenty of options for the infield this offseason, they just need to spend, like big with consideration to our pitching. Hah!

[Jimcanuck]

I sort of lean this way too. I don't think Semien will be back, just my opinion. So do the Jays roll with Espinal/Smith at 3rd base and Biggio/Lopez at 2nd base and wait for Moreno/Martinez and Groshans to arrive? Meanwhile pour the FA dollars into pitching for now? Not a bad idea I don't think. They will score lots of runs even without Semien, but they need to add 2 or 3 quality starting pitchers and 2 or 3 solid high leverage relievers.

 

Of course, they could go with a cheaper 3B addition also. Don't have to break the bank for Ramirez.

 

Eduardo Escobar is projected for $12-13M and is a league average bat / defense. Switchhitter.

 

Could trade for JD.

 

Trade catching surplus for pitching.

 

Move a couple of lower ranked guys like Lopez for pitching. May not be room for those types, given the Jays are pretty set at each position for a few years yet.

 

There are a lot of ways this could go.

[Krylian]

Was Jansen's strong finish a mirage or is he finally putting it together?

[Jimcanuck]

Was Jansen's strong finish a mirage or is he finally putting it together?

 

He's killed the BABIP jinx. I'm buying.

[Spanky99]

Was Jansen's strong finish a mirage or is he finally putting it together?

 

I believe so, he's always hit the ball hard, he certainly could've figured things out in a tweak or something, his BABIP has been comically low, that BABIP moves up and stays, we can say it's real. Man, if he rakes like he did coming back from injury, that'd be fantastic.

[Stangstag]

I believe so, he's always hit the ball hard, he certainly could've figured things out in a tweak or something, his BABIP has been comically low, that BABIP moves up and stays, we can say it's real. Man, if he rakes like he did coming back from injury, that'd be fantastic.

 

He got a snapchat from Jesse Barfield that completely fixed his swing overnight

[Spanky99]

He got a snapchat from Jesse Barfield that completely fixed his swing overnight

 

lol... hey, leave my man alone!

[Eat My Shatkins]

I predict the Jays will trade Kirk for a young Marlin starter this off season. Going to guess Lopez, and the Jays add a bit to get it done.

 

Start the season with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno gets some AAA under his belt.

 

I also predict they will agree to a long term extension with Berrios and it will be a touch higher than you might expect, in order to keep him from waiting a year to test free agency.

[Jimcanuck]

I predict the Jays will trade Kirk for a young Marlin starter this off season. Going to guess Lopez, and the Jays add a bit to get it done.

 

Start the season with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno gets some AAA under his belt.

 

I also predict they will agree to a long term extension with Berrios and it will be a touch higher than you might expect, in order to keep him from waiting a year to test free agency.

 

I am hoping for the same. Berrios, Manoah, Lopez is killer top 3

[John_Havok]

He got a snapchat from Jesse Barfield that completely fixed his swing overnight

 

This is gonna be a good meme for a while.

[saskjayfan]

I predict the Jays will trade Kirk for a young Marlin starter this off season. Going to guess Lopez, and the Jays add a bit to get it done.

 

Start the season with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno gets some AAA under his belt.

 

I also predict they will agree to a long term extension with Berrios and it will be a touch higher than you might expect, in order to keep him from waiting a year to test free agency.

 

Can't we just put Moreno at 3rd and get his bat in the lineup almost every night. He should be up early in the season next year. Vlad played his age 20 season in the majors. Bo played his age 21 in the majors. Moreno will be in his age 22 season next year and he's destroying the minors.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Can't we just put Moreno at 3rd and get his bat in the lineup almost every night. He should be up early in the season next year. Vlad played his age 20 season in the majors. Bo played his age 21 in the majors. Moreno will be in his age 22 season next year and he's destroying the minors.

 

I'm all for it, but it doesn't seem like the Jays are doing it.

 

Besides, trading Kirk for a controllable young starting pitcher wouldn't be the worst thing. Especially with Jansen turning things around, and Moreno on the cusp.

[saskjayfan]

I'm all for it, but it doesn't seem like the Jays are doing it.

 

Besides, trading Kirk for a controllable young starting pitcher wouldn't be the worst thing. Especially with Jansen turning things around, and Moreno on the cusp.

 

Yeah, but that's assuming we can get one of the Marlins pitchers, which I don't think we will be able to do.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah, but that's assuming we can get one of the Marlins pitchers, which I don't think we will be able to do.

 

Maybe not, but it makes complete sense.

 

The Marlins have a surplus of good young starting pitchers and have expressed interest in acquiring a catcher. The Jays just so happen to have a surplus of good young catchers.

[saskjayfan]

Maybe not, but it makes complete sense.

 

The Marlins have a surplus of good young starting pitchers and have expressed interest in acquiring a catcher. The Jays just so happen to have a surplus of good young catchers.

 

We definitely have to move one of them if they are all staying at catcher. Moreno was initially signed as a middle infielder. He has a cannon for an arm which serves him well behind the plate, but would also serve him at 3rd. He did play one game at third this year in the minors and took some reps there so they've at least tinkered with the idea.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays have expressed that Moreno will get INF reps in AFL. AFL ends Nov 20. Let's see if he rolls off several 3B starts in a row, in which case time to get excited. He might get some DWL reps too.

[Eat My Shatkins]

We definitely have to move one of them if they are all staying at catcher. Moreno was initially signed as a middle infielder. He has a cannon for an arm which serves him well behind the plate, but would also serve him at 3rd. He did play one game at third this year in the minors and took some reps there so they've at least tinkered with the idea.

 

Yep you bet, and I am in favor of giving that a try if that's what they decide to do.

[WryNGinger]

This is how I see the Catcher position playing out for the next year and a bit for the Jays.

 

The Jays have 3 MLB capable catchers but the guy with by far has the highest upside isn't ready. Moreno probably won't be ready to be on a WS caliber team this year. as the starting catcher. Jansen seems to be the guy that fits best with the "win-now we know who he is" role as primary catcher this year so you keep him this year and possibly trade him next off season if Moreno looks ready. Kirk has the highest trade value out of him and McGuire so you trade Kirk this off season and keep McGuire. If Moreno looks to be a capable back-up around the trade deadline you bring him up and move McGuire. If not you just keep McGuire.

 

Jansen and Kirk need to be moved if they are going to be pushed out by Moreno in 2023. A lot of MLB teams will see both of them as starting Catchers or at least a 1A/1B type guy so you need to maximize their value. I am probably missing a few points...this seems to be the best way to maximize the depth of our catcher situation right now.

[jerb]

 

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