Rosterbation Discussion Thread (2021)

[Eat My Shatkins]

Just chomping at the bit to see the Jays sign Paxton and then get this show on the road.

 

1. CF - Springer

2. SS - Bichette

3. 2B - Semien

4. DH - Hernandez

5. LF - Gurriel

6. 1B - Guerrero

7. 3B - Biggio

8. RF - Grichuk

9. C - Jansen

 

B - Tellez (In there for Grichuk vs RHP, Teo to RF)

B - Espinal/Urena

B - Fisher/Davis

B - Kirk/Mcguire

 

 

SP - L - Ryu

SP - L - Paxton

SP - R - Pearson

SP - L - Ray

SP - L - Matz

 

RP - R - Roark

RP - R - Stripling

RP - R - Chatwood

RP - R - Merryweather

RP - L - Borucki

RP - R - Romano

RP - R - Yates

RP - R - Dolis

 

 

Use Roark as the 6th starter unless there is an off day, then have him be a long man out of the pen on what would have been his regular start day.

 

Lefty heavy rotation, and a righty heavy bullpen. Probably not ideal I guess, but f*** it.

 

Bonus points for squishing out Roark like the turd he is and replacing him with Rosenthal and then signing Marwin Gonzales to replace one of the bench players.

[RustyTrombone]

Bold prediction but i think Tyler Chatwood is gonna be a huge piece of our pitching staff, either as a dynamic multi-inning reliever or a starter.

[Ray]

I think McGuire starts as the backup with Kirk at AAA.

 

Fisher is going to be the bench OF. Davis is likely going to be DFA'd.

 

Espinal optioned to AAA for a Marwin Gonzalez/Adam Frazier type

 

I think there's a good chance that they open with a rotation without Pearson if they add another starter. They're going to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle with Roark/Matz at the bottom of the rotation. This front office loves to exhaust all options and then turn to their depth if needed.

[P2F]

I think McGuire starts as the backup with Kirk at AAA.

 

Fisher is going to be the bench OF. Davis is likely going to be DFA'd.

 

Espinal optioned to AAA for a Marwin Gonzalez/Adam Frazier type

 

I think there's a good chance that they open with a rotation without Pearson if they add another starter. They're going to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle with Roark/Matz at the bottom of the rotation. This front office loves to exhaust all options and then turn to their depth if needed.

 

I feel like this has been the case when they were afforded the opportunity to do so, but I don't necessarily think we should assume this will be their modus operandi in all similar situations going forward. With where the Jays are now on the expected win curve, all games matter this year. If Roark f***ing sucks, for example, then I don't think he will or should be allowed too many cracks at fixing it before they move on from him and push him to a BP role.

[Spanky99]

I think McGuire starts as the backup with Kirk at AAA.

 

Fisher is going to be the bench OF. Davis is likely going to be DFA'd.

 

Espinal optioned to AAA for a Marwin Gonzalez/Adam Frazier type

 

I think there's a good chance that they open with a rotation without Pearson if they add another starter. They're going to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle with Roark/Matz at the bottom of the rotation. This front office loves to exhaust all options and then turn to their depth if needed.

 

Davis has an option, left. And I believe you're incorrect on the latter.

[G-Snarls]

Just chomping at the bit to see the Jays sign Paxton and then get this show on the road.

 

1. CF - Springer

2. SS - Bichette

3. 2B - Semien

4. DH - Hernandez

5. LF - Gurriel

6. 1B - Guerrero

7. 3B - Biggio

8. RF - Grichuk

9. C - Jansen

 

B - Tellez (In there for Grichuk vs RHP, Teo to RF)

B - Espinal/Urena

B - Fisher/Davis

B - Kirk/Mcguire

 

 

SP - L - Ryu

SP - L - Paxton

SP - R - Pearson

SP - L - Ray

SP - L - Matz

 

RP - R - Roark

RP - R - Stripling

RP - R - Chatwood

RP - R - Merryweather

RP - L - Borucki

RP - R - Romano

RP - R - Yates

RP - R - Dolis

 

 

Use Roark as the 6th starter unless there is an off day, then have him be a long man out of the pen on what would have been his regular start day.

 

Lefty heavy rotation, and a righty heavy bullpen. Probably not ideal I guess, but f*** it.

 

Bonus points for squishing out Roark like the turd he is and replacing him with Rosenthal and then signing Marwin Gonzales to replace one of the bench players.

 

My name is GSnarls and I approve of this post

[Ray]

I feel like this has been the case when they were afforded the opportunity to do so, but I don't necessarily think we should assume this will be their modus operandi in all similar situations going forward. With where the Jays are now on the expected win curve, all games matter this year. If Roark f***ing sucks, for example, then I don't think he will or should be allowed too many cracks at fixing it before they move on from him and push him to a BP role.

 

Yeah, the leash is not going to be particularly long with Roark, but I think he breaks camp with the team.

[Jays24]

Yeah, the leash is not going to be particularly long with Roark, but I think he breaks camp with the team.

 

Agreed. He would have to totally s*** the bed to get cut at this stage. Its a contract year so hope he gets his fat ass in shape.

[max silver]

Agreed. He would have to totally s*** the bed to get cut at this stage. Its a contract year so hope he gets his fat ass in shape.

 

If MLB deadens the ball sufficiently Roark has a chance to be a useful rotation piece again.

[TwistedLogic]

FanGraphs put out a pretty interesting article on one of the key themes in this thread: Who should bat leadoff?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-good-hitters-lead-off-fangraphs-investigates/

 

TLDR: The batting order does impact how many runs you score over the course of a season and it does make the most sense to bat a high OBP player leadoff while keeping power hitters in the heart of the lineup.

 

The conundrum for the Jays, and one that the article above doesn't necessarily tackle, is this: what if your best power hitter is also your best OBP guy?

 

That's what the Blue Jays have in George Springer and it will be interesting to see where they decide to bat him.

[Laika]

FanGraphs put out a pretty interesting article on one of the key themes in this thread: Who should bat leadoff?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-good-hitters-lead-off-fangraphs-investigates/

 

TLDR: The batting order does impact how many runs you score over the course of a season and it does make the most sense to bat a high OBP player leadoff while keeping power hitters in the heart of the lineup.

 

The conundrum for the Jays, and one that the article above doesn't necessarily tackle, is this: what if your best power hitter is also your best OBP guy?

 

That's what the Blue Jays have in George Springer and it will be interesting to see where they decide to bat him.

 

I think this stuff might matter more when you have extreme players, like one high OBP slap hitter vs. a strikeout and HR king.

 

Toronto has some well rounded hitters who hit for average, get on base, and hit for power. I don't think you can really go wrong ordering guys like Springer, Bo, Vlad, Gurriel, Teoscar, Biggio, Tellez, Semien, Kirk as long as the better hitters all things considered are near the top.

[TwistedLogic]

I think this stuff might matter more when you have extreme players, like one high OBP slap hitter vs. a strikeout and HR king.

 

Toronto has some well rounded hitters who hit for average, get on base, and hit for power. I don't think you can really go wrong ordering guys like Springer, Bo, Vlad, Gurriel, Teoscar, Biggio, Tellez, Semien, Kirk as long as the better hitters all things considered are near the top.

 

Agreed. The only guy on the roster I'd say fits the examples in the FanGraphs study is Biggio, who's pretty reliant on his OBP. I'd probably bat him leadoff just because of that, but you can't really go wrong with him anywhere in the order just because of how stacked the rest of the lineup is.

 

Hell, the days that Kirk gets playing time, the Jays will have a legitimate power threat at every spot in the lineup outside of Biggio, who can still knock it out a pretty respectable rate.

 

---

Edit: And it looks like I'm underselling Biggio's power. For all the s*** he gets about having no game power, he had the #7 ISO and #7 SLG in 2020 among all qualified second basemen. He might have the weakest power on the team but he's still among the best guys at his position.

[TwistedLogic]

The Blue Jays roster is hilarious.

 

[Ray]

I know this point has probably been beaten to death here, but I'm so stoked on what our pitching depth is looking like. I legitimately think there's a good possibility that someone rises to the occasion and grabs that #2 or #3 spot in the rotation, and this is without considering any bounce backs from Ray, Stripling, Roark, and Matz

 

Pearson: Looked like an ace absolutely dismantling the Rays in the postseason. There's a legitimate chance he could be our best starter next season

Kay: High floor with his high-spin fastball and curve combo, and his changeup was looking good too. He's got a real good 3 pitch mix.

Hatch: Looked pretty good as a reliever last season and was really good at limiting hard contact and barrels. Also has a high spin/moderate velocity fastball.

Thornton: In hindsight, had a pretty successful 2019 season for a rookie pitcher in the AL East. Could make the next step.

Merryweather: Injury concerns, but flamethrower. I guess you could make the case that he should be a bullpen guy instead of the rotation, but I think this front office is just too enamoured by the thought of him the rotation so he may start there

Zeuch: f*** FIP I guess? BJMB keeps doubting and he's still out there getting major league outs without embarrassing himself even despite his profile. Who knows, maybe he starts 96 mph sinkers after an offseason regiment or something

 

I feel like every young team that makes a run ends up having happy surprises. Example: The Braves getting Max Friend and Ian Anderson to pick them up Soroka went down early last season. Hoping we get similar stories from our young pitching staff. Really looking forward to tracking their development and progress.

 

(And this isn't even counting guys like Manoah and SWR who may be major league ready by end of season!)

[Jimcanuck]

I know this point has probably been beaten to death here, but I'm so stoked on what our pitching depth is looking like. I legitimately think there's a good possibility that someone rises to the occasion and grabs that #2 or #3 spot in the rotation, and this is without considering any bounce backs from Ray, Stripling, Roark, and Matz

 

Pearson: Looked like an ace absolutely dismantling the Rays in the postseason. There's a legitimate chance he could be our best starter next season

Kay: High floor with his high-spin fastball and curve combo, and his changeup was looking good too. He's got a real good 3 pitch mix.

Hatch: Looked pretty good as a reliever last season and was really good at limiting hard contact and barrels. Also has a high spin/moderate velocity fastball.

Thornton: In hindsight, had a pretty successful 2019 season for a rookie pitcher in the AL East. Could make the next step.

Merryweather: Injury concerns, but flamethrower. I guess you could make the case that he should be a bullpen guy instead of the rotation, but I think this front office is just too enamoured by the thought of him the rotation so he may start there

Zeuch: f*** FIP I guess? BJMB keeps doubting and he's still out there getting major league outs without embarrassing himself even despite his profile. Who knows, maybe he starts 96 mph sinkers after an offseason regiment or something

 

I feel like every young team that makes a run ends up having happy surprises. Example: The Braves getting Max Friend and Ian Anderson to pick them up Soroka went down early last season. Hoping we get similar stories from our young pitching staff. Really looking forward to tracking their development and progress.

 

(And this isn't even counting guys like Manoah and SWR who may be major league ready by end of season!)

 

Could be good, or suck balls. Wide range of outcomes with this crew.

[TwistedLogic]

With spring training officially opening, I'm submitting my first 26-man roster of the season. None of the below takes into account options, contract status or realistic playing time. I know Jansen will be the starting catcher, Biggio probably won't lead off, and Semien won't be anywhere near the bottom of the order. This is just how I'd ideally play it myself given what we know now and the pieces the Blue Jays currently have available. I'm going to have an updated version of this at the end of Spring Training or in the event of a significant acquisition.

 

01 | 3B | Cavan Biggio

02 | CF | George Springer

03 | SS | Bo Bichette

04 | LF | Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

05 | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

06 | RF | Teoscar Hernandez

07 | CA | Alejandro Kirk

08 | DH | Rowdy Tellez

09 | 2B | Marcus Semien

 

B1 | CA | Danny Jansen

B2 | OF | Randal Grichuk

B3 | UT | Joe Panik

B4 | OF | Jonathan Davis

 

SP1 | L | Hyun-Jin Ryu

SP2 | R | Nate Pearson

SP3 | L | Robbie Ray

SP4 | R | Ross Stripling

SP5 | L | Steven Matz

SP6 | R | Tanner Roark

 

CL | R | Kirby Yates

SU | R | Jordan Romano

SU | R | Rafael Dolis

LS | L | Ryan Borucki

MR | R | Julian Merryweather

LR | R | Tyler Chatwood

LR | R | Anthony Kay

 

Notes: I'm rolling with a 6-man rotation since nobody is stretched out for a full season of games in the previous year. If Semien is the real deal, I'm dropping Biggio to 9, Springer to 1, Bichette to 2, and Semien to 3. The line-up on days that Kirk is starting is potentially bonkers 1-through-9. A bench of Jansen, Grichuk and Panik is practically unfair. Relief corps probably looks a lot different opening day vs what it looks to be now. Rotation has a chance to be a huge strength for the team or a total garbagefire.

Edited February 28, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[TwistedLogic]

How are people feeling on their updated rosterbation?

 

Obviously lots of new information that's changed up the roster significantly. Major injuries, some players not performing as well as expected, others exceeding expectations.

 

Given that we've got 50-ish games of information now, I got my ideal 26-man roster below (taking into account injured players that will realistically return):

 

Lineup:

 

01 | CF | George Springer

02 | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

03 | SS | Bo Bichette

04 | 2B | Marcus Semien

05 | DH | Teoscar Hernandez

06 | CA | Alejandro Kirk

07 | RF | Randal Grichuk

08 | LF | Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

09 | 3B | Cavan Biggio

 

Bench:

 

B1 | CA | Danny Jansen

B2 | IF | Santiago Espinal

B3 | PH | Rowdy Tellez

B4 | PR | Jonathan Davis / Joshua Palacios

 

Rotation:

 

SP1 | L | Hyun-Jin Ryu

SP2 | R | Alek Manoah

SP3 | L | Robbie Ray

SP4 | L | Steven Matz

SP5 | R | Ross Stripling / Nate Pearson

 

Bullpen:

 

RP | Julian Merryweather

RP | Jordan Romano

RP | Ryan Borucki

RP | Rafael Dolis

RP | Tyler Chatwood

RP | Anthony Castro

RP | Joel Payamps

RP | Anthony Kay

Edited June 2, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[Brownie19]

Phelps is done for the year and you have too many 2nd basemen in the lineup TL!

 

Otherwise, looks fine. I don't think there's much of a chance you see them change Bo/Vlad/Teo in the 2/3/4 spots unless something crazy happens.

[TwistedLogic]

Phelps is done for the year and you have too many 2nd basemen in the lineup TL!

 

Otherwise, looks fine. I don't think there's much of a chance you see them change Bo/Vlad/Teo in the 2/3/4 spots unless something crazy happens.

 

Oops. And I had no idea Phelps was done for the year.

[Jays24]

Lineup should be:

 

CF Springer

SS Bo

1B Vlad

LF Teo

2B Semien

RF Grichuk

DH Gurriel

C Kirk

3B Biggio

[max silver]

Lineup should be:

 

CF Springer

SS Bo

1B Vlad

LF Teo

2B Semien

RF Grichuk

DH Gurriel

C Kirk

3B Biggio

 

I just can't see how you can justify moving Semien down in the order after the month he just put up. This is one of baseball's hottest hitters, there's no way you move him down to 5th and replace him with a guy who is going to be coming back from injury. If anybody should be moved down it's Bichette, his propensity to hack at everything thrown his way is trashing his offensive game right now.

[Jays24]

I just can't see how you can justify moving Semien down in the order after the month he just put up. This is one of baseball's hottest hitters, there's no way you move him down to 5th and replace him with a guy who is going to be coming back from injury. If anybody should be moved down it's Bichette, his propensity to hack at everything thrown his way is trashing his offensive game right now.

 

I had explained in another thread that you don't move players of Bo's/Springer's calibre from their spots based on a short sample size, especially for a player on a 1 year deal. It's the same reason why Semien is playing 2B and Bo is still at SS.

 

Now if Bo keeps struggling and Semien remains on a tear for longer then there's a chance. Being put 5th is still in a great run producing position.

[max silver]

I had explained in another thread that you don't move players of Bo's/Springer's calibre from their spots based on a short sample size, especially for a player on a 1 year deal. It's the same reason why Semien is playing 2B and Bo is still at SS.

 

Now if Bo keeps struggling and Semien remains on a tear for longer then there's a chance. Being put 5th is still in a great run producing position.

 

Moving Bo off of short stop is something I can agree that you wouldn't do for a one year contracted player, once he's moved off the position it might be the end of his playing there long term. However there is no reason that lineup spots need to be handled in this type of fashion, there are no potential long term career effects by tinkering with the lineup. This should be strictly based on performance and team benefit, you perform you stay at the top of the lineup, you don't perform you get moved down, pretty simple stuff. Grichuk showed himself to be a reliable performer and thusly moved up to the 5th spot in the order, conversely struggling players need to justify their spots as well.

[Krylian]

Lineup should be:

 

CF Springer

SS Bo

1B Vlad

LF Teo

2B Semien

RF Grichuk

DH Gurriel

C Kirk

3B Biggio

 

With Groshans, Martin, Moreno possibly ready as early as next season.

[5minutesforframing]

With Groshans, Martin, Moreno possibly ready as early as next season.

 

Seems ambitious.

[Krylian]

Seems ambitious.

 

Maybe, but they're all Top 100 prospects and probably in our Top 5. Moreno is embarrassing AA pitching. Martin is slowly heating up. Groshans is sputtering along but he missed a week or two so he's probably the furthest behind of the three. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that at some point next season any or all of them could be doing enough to have earned a call up.

[BlueRocky]

I can see Martin and Moreno getting the call next year.

Groshans was very aggressively placed in double-A after just 71 professional games since getting signed out of highschool. He’s missed a ton of development time and there’s only so much clubs can do to simulate competition at a training site. I’m not surprised from the slow start from Groshans and nobody should be too concerned with the early struggles. Even Spencer Torkelson who annihilated college baseball for 3 years at ASU is only starting in high-A.

[saskjayfan]

Seems ambitious.

 

Moreno will be 22 next year, Martin will be 23. Bo was 21 and Vlad was 20 when they made their debuts. If both Moreno and Martin are still doing well at AA a month from now move them up to AAA. If they continue to hit they could be early call ups next year. Danny needs to be looking over his shoulder next year. He's got 2 young kids really bringing it.

[Brownie19]

Moreno will be 22 next year, Martin will be 23. Bo was 21 and Vlad was 20 when they made their debuts. If both Moreno and Martin are still doing well at AA a month from now move them up to AAA. If they continue to hit they could be early call ups next year. Danny needs to be looking over his shoulder next year. He's got 2 young kids really bringing it.

 

Don't forget that Danny Jansen was also "really bringing it" in the minors too...

[Jays24]

Moreno will be 22 next year, Martin will be 23. Bo was 21 and Vlad was 20 when they made their debuts. If both Moreno and Martin are still doing well at AA a month from now move them up to AAA. If they continue to hit they could be early call ups next year. Danny needs to be looking over his shoulder next year. He's got 2 young kids really bringing it.

 

Tough to compare prospects to elite ones like Vlad and Bo. There aren't many of those walking around and if they're anywhere near those guys, we're looking at a dynasty.