General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[TheHurl]

Elvis has left the building.

 

I'll await the "Elvis Lives" post when they sign him to a minor league deal.

[RobinThicc]

My issue here is this - Ray has been the team's best starting pitcher and Semien is the second-best player.

 

They're a 4th place AL East team WITH those two. If in the offseason you lose one or both then you need an equal calibre pair of players just to make this team, once again, a 4th place team.

 

You need those two AND you have to add. Preferably a third baseman and two lights-out bullpen arms to support Romano. I like some of the middle inning options they have but you ideally want two more Romano types - guys who come in and can K the side.

 

A new manager - Paul Molitor won manager of the year in 2017 and then was fired the following year. I don't know if he was actually a good manager but if he is - he would provide good optics if they fire Monty.

 

Maybe he can be a player-manager - he could probably at least get a bloody bunt down even at 65.

 

An improved BP and a healthy springer playing 140ish games will make up some of the difference, but not all of it.

 

Im really curious to see if they bring them back or how they replace them.

 

Two pretty big blows to the team, if they dont bring them back and do a poor job replacing them this team wont be in the playoffs next again.

[jerb]

 

Ethan Diamandas

@EthanDiamandas

 

#BlueJays' Julian Merryweather (oblique) has returned to action after dealing with "general soreness." He just pitched a scoreless outing in the Florida Complex League.

[P2F]

I'll await the "Elvis Lives" post when they sign him to a minor league deal.

 

Or Elvis: The Comeback Special

[Deadpool]

My issue here is this - Ray has been the team's best starting pitcher and Semien is the second-best player.

 

They're a 4th place AL East team WITH those two. If in the offseason you lose one or both then you need an equal calibre pair of players just to make this team, once again, a 4th place team.

 

You need those two AND you have to add. Preferably a third baseman and two lights-out bullpen arms to support Romano. I like some of the middle inning options they have but you ideally want two more Romano types - guys who come in and can K the side.

 

A new manager - Paul Molitor won manager of the year in 2017 and then was fired the following year. I don't know if he was actually a good manager but if he is - he would provide good optics if they fire Monty.

 

Maybe he can be a player-manager - he could probably at least get a bloody bunt down even at 65.

 

I know it was a joke, but there is zero chance that 65 year old Paul Molitor could successfully get a bunt down against 2021 major league pitching.

[The_DH]

I know it was a joke, but there is zero chance that 65 year old Paul Molitor could successfully get a bunt down against 2021 major league pitching.

 

Have we seen one successful bunt from a blue jay this year? I don’t recall any.

[glory]

The Yankees gave Chapman a mega contract. It's not comparable to Toronto trying to bring back Ray or Semien after dealing them.

 

Nobody should want Toronto to have to pay Robbie Ray the absolute highest amount of money to sign him. You'd like to think that after his career turnaround there will be other factors that are at least a bit important to him.

 

The Yankees had to rebuild. The situations aren't comparable other than playoff proximity. They traded a 39 year old DH and two relievers that deadline. The Yankees also had a negative run differential that year - deadline decisions are as much about projected performance as they are about current standings.

 

Run differential is not a predictive stat, it's a stat that tells you whether a team is over or underachieving based on a specific sample of results. Just because the Jays had a +100 (or whatever it was) RD and a .500 record, it didn't mean they were going to outscore their opponents in a similar fashion the rest of the way. So yes, you can use RD to judge trade deadline strategy, but at the end of the day, if you're 4.5 games back and have to catch 3+ teams and fight off another team right behind you in a cupcake division (Cleveland) in the process, then it's not a cut and dry issue. You can easily justify a pivot in the other direction in that scenario, maybe not full scale, but a quick retool to prepare for 2022 was a very reasonable direction to take. The Rays would have done it even without the financial implications, and that's the team the Jays have to be better than at some point soon.

 

As far as Chapman versus Semien/Ray, I don't see why they are not comparable. Yes, the Yankees are the alpha franchise, so they have that going for them, but Chapman didn't take a discount to sign with them. He took a huge contract, probably the most money he was going to get. That's what it would take to get Semien and Ray back in a few months. Semien was a mercenary. He signed because he wasn't getting $18m on a one year deal from anyone else in the Covid market. He did it to specifically cash out the following season, so whether the Jays traded him in July or kept him all season, I don't see how that changes his outlook. Ray might be a different story since he re-signed after being here a few months, but like Semien, he took a one year deal for a reason. He was coming off a bad year and wanted to rebuild value. He's had a fantastic year. I really don't envision a scenario where he takes fewer years or term to stay with the Jays just because they held on to him at the deadline. As much as he seems to like the org and Walker, if another team gives him the best offer, then that's usually enough to change a FA's mind.

 

Again, I'm not saying the Jays were incompetent for staying the course. They took a chance on something that didn't have the greatest odds of happening because of optics. It is what it is. They also failed to take advantage of a situation where they could have focused on something a little more likely (seriously contending in 2022) by adding pieces to help that team out.

[Laika]

I'm not concerned about Ray and Semien because I think we can replicate short-term value FA signings. My much bigger concern is the overall organizational pitching depth. It's just not there. Not even close really.

 

Every team has pitching injuries. You simply have to be able to piece it together. That's just the way it is nowadays.

 

Like come on, Carl Edwards, Zeuch, John Axford. This is pretty much the bottom of the barrel. Trading a 40 FV for 2 months of the corpse of Brad Hand.

 

Yeah it's not great. Some of the young SP/RP depth like Hatch, Kay, Thornton have been complete zeros and that doesn't help.

[glory]

You’re also missing the fact that we can give them both the QO and that gives us major leverage to re-sign them.

 

Also you said “if Ray liked his time in Toronto”... bro by that point Ray had never even played (or lived) in Toronto. Same with Semien.

 

A QO is only leverage when the FA has enough warts to cause other teams to pause. Semien is going to be a top 10 WAR player for two consecutive full seasons after this year, and Ray is a LHP having an amazing season at age 29 after a good track record pre-2020. I don't think either one has to worry about a team not wanting to sign them due to the QO (barring a major collapse by one/both players the rest of the way or injury).

[Jimcanuck]

There were opinions on both sides, approaching the deadline. If they Jays had taken the other route and moved Semien and Ray, it would not have been well received by most fans, but fans have short memories.

[AMS528]

I'm not concerned about Ray and Semien because I think we can replicate short-term value FA signings. My much bigger concern is the overall organizational pitching depth. It's just not there. Not even close really.

 

Every team has pitching injuries. You simply have to be able to piece it together. That's just the way it is nowadays.

 

Like come on, Carl Edwards, Zeuch, John Axford. This is pretty much the bottom of the barrel. Trading a 40 FV for 2 months of the corpse of Brad Hand.

 

I think it's a little odd to think we'd be able to replicate the value we got from those two signings. It's possible we resign one or both (Ray being much more likely I think). Ray is first in bWAR for pitchers and Semien is first in bWAR for position players (not including Ohtani). The odds of getting even close to that kind of performance from other short term value signings in incredibly incredibly unlikely. Like absurdly so given those signings often do not work out for teams across the league.

[Carlos Danger]

My much bigger concern is the overall organizational pitching depth. It's just not there. Not even close really.

 

Every team has pitching injuries. You simply have to be able to piece it together. That's just the way it is nowadays.

 

Like come on, Carl Edwards, Zeuch, John Axford. This is pretty much the bottom of the barrel. Trading a 40 FV for 2 months of the corpse of Brad Hand.

 

This- SPOT ON!

 

Laika and I, and probably some others IDR, were preaching this in the off season when the majority were concentrating on bats and saying we had plenty of "pitching depth". Unfortunately, our concerns have come to fruition.

 

Needs to be a priority #1 in the offseason IMO.

[Deadpool]

Have we seen one successful bunt from a blue jay this year? I don’t recall any.

 

The only thing better than zero successful bunts is zero attempted bunts.

[The_DH]

The only thing better than zero successful bunts is zero attempted bunts.

 

Given the last bunt attempt I saw, I’d have to agree.

[Brownie19]

I think it's a little odd to think we'd be able to replicate the value we got from those two signings. It's possible we resign one or both (Ray being much more likely I think). Ray is first in bWAR for pitchers and Semien is first in bWAR for position players (not including Ohtani). The odds of getting even close to that kind of performance from other short term value signings in incredibly incredibly unlikely. Like absurdly so given those signings often do not work out for teams across the league.

 

Ray isn't first for bWAR...Wade Miley is...which is bizarre!

[The Iceman]

I know it was a joke, but there is zero chance that 65 year old Paul Molitor could successfully get a bunt down against 2021 major league pitching.

 

I would vote yes for PM getting a bunt down at 65. Practice for one week and then let him go.

Not sure of the last bunt but Berrios failed and then succeded in bunting when we were in a NL park.

[glory]

I think it's a little odd to think we'd be able to replicate the value we got from those two signings. It's possible we resign one or both (Ray being much more likely I think). Ray is first in bWAR for pitchers and Semien is first in bWAR for position players (not including Ohtani). The odds of getting even close to that kind of performance from other short term value signings in incredibly incredibly unlikely. Like absurdly so given those signings often do not work out for teams across the league.

 

Yeah the team definitely got the best case scenario with Semien and Ray. Not sure they can expect that type of success with future one year deals. Taking a quick glimpse at the upcoming FA market, the only FA's who I think could be had for one year deals and possess enough upside to possibly be significant surplus value next season are Syndergaard and maybe Conforto. The Mets would be foolish not to qualify both, so losing picks for one year deals would be risky, but they would be getting picks back for Semien/Ray, so there's a trade off. I don't see any of the top SS's taking one year deals.

[TwistedLogic]

[z3r0s]

Yeah the team definitely got the best case scenario with Semien and Ray. Not sure they can expect that type of success with future one year deals. Taking a quick glimpse at the upcoming FA market, the only FA's who I think could be had for one year deals and possess enough upside to possibly be significant surplus value next season are Syndergaard and maybe Conforto. The Mets would be foolish not to qualify both, so losing picks for one year deals would be risky, but they would be getting picks back for Semien/Ray, so there's a trade off. I don't see any of the top SS's taking one year deals.

 

I wouldn't bet on it happening, but Story might take a one year deal after a down performance with a qualifying offer.

 

I think he has enough track record not to need it, but it is possible he goes that way.

[Ray]

Tommy John for Cavan?

 

[Stangstag]

Tommy John for Cavan?

 

 

Huh, interesting. If he were to have TJs I think he’d be ready for opening next season. Isn’t the recovery time only a few months for non-pitchers??

[Laika]

Huh, interesting. If he were to have TJs I think he’d be ready for opening next season. Isn’t the recovery time only a few months for non-pitchers??

 

I do believe it's shorter. Gregorius had TJS October 2018 and was activated from the DL June 2019.

 

Best case scenario would be Biggio still missing a little bit of 2022. If he had TJS this month.

[z3r0s]

Do ppl get UCL injuries from diving for a ball? I thought that's how he got hurt. I guess it's possible. Weird tho

[Terminator]

Biggio needs to get healthy so he can be the 2nd piece in a package for J-Ram this offseason.

[max silver]

Biggio needs to get healthy so he can be the 2nd piece in a package for J-Ram this offseason.

 

After the season Biggio just had I would think he would be the third or fourth piece in a Ramirez deal.

[connorp]

After the season Biggio just had I would think he would be the third or fourth piece in a Ramirez deal.

 

You trying to join the club?

[max silver]

You trying to join the club?

 

Nope. There is no denying that Biggio's injury plagued season would have to put a bit of a damper on his trade value. I think he should bounce back with better health.

[glory]

Biggio needs to get healthy so he can be the 2nd piece in a package for J-Ram this offseason.

 

Nah, he's going to Oakland in a package for Matt Chapman.

[Ehjays]

 

Ross atkins on with Bobcat today

[Key22]

With the Jays trying to contend why would we not go after both Ray and Semien? What would it take to get them to resign.

 

Ray $80m/4?

Semien $110m/5?