Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I wonder if the league has simply figured him out? If you look at his zone percentages from previous years and compare them to 2026, pitchers are throwing him up instead of down. Attack angles on pitches up are always worse for everyone than they are down, but I wonder if with Vlad it gets to the point that it just breaks his swing completely.

Someone like Springer who has as 10 degree attack angle still has a 6 degree attack angle on a pitch up in the zone. But when Vlad has a 1 degree attack angle, he has a -4 degree attack angle on pitches up. You just can't do much with a ball when you are swinging like that. So pitch Vlad up and he's cooked?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

 

This makes a lot of sense. 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, jaysblue said:

There was probably a lot of pressure from Rogers to get Vladdy extended, especially after missing out on Ohtani, Soto and some of the other big-name free agents the previous offseason.

I thought $500M was way too much at the time, but even then I never expected him to be this bad. At worst, I figured he’d settle in as more of a 3–4 WAR player like he was in 2022.

always assumed Ross and Shapiro had no interest in giving him that contract but Rogers made them

[jaysblue]

Heck, I would even take Freddie Freeman production from 2024 onwards from Vladdy: Around 20-25 HR's, .290-.300 BA, .850 OPS and gold glove defense at 1B. 

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Heck, I would even take Freddie Freeman production from 2024 onwards from Vladdy: Around 20-25 HR's, .290-.300 BA, .850 OPS and gold glove defense at 1B. 

Buddy, Freddie Freeman is a 99th percentile outcome for Vlad at this point 

Almost no chance he is that good 

Edwin Encarnacion or Adrian Gonzalez might be an 80th percentile outcome 

We are looking at an Eric Hosmer situation 

Vlad has 21 fWAR, what are the odds he even gets to 40 in his career? He might be lucky to get to 30. He literally sucks. 

If he can piece together 6 more 2 WAR seasons that might be a decent outcome because he sucks balls 

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

He's just not a good enough player. It's sad and unfortunate, but his swing path is FLAWED and the Blue Jays did not realize it until now. 

I don't actually KNOW any of this but my guess is that when you have a 1st percentile attack angle, your timing needs to be even better than the average player because of how your swing path lines up with the trajectory of the ball. Every pitch is coming into the zone moving down, right? The typical MLB swing is going to approach the ball at a 10 degree attack angle; a slight uppercut. That means the sweet spot is moving at that angle when it makes contact. Which also means that it matches a ball dropping at that same angle. So that player can be a bit late or early and still put the sweet spot on the ball. 

It seems like Vlad does not have that benefit. If he is a bit late or a bit early his contact quality suffers more. It's like his sweet spot is not on plane with the pitch for as long as it is for a standard slugger. 

He needs new hitting coaches and he needs to spend the entire offseason rebuilding his swing so that his attack angle is more normal. And I guess a bit more tilt would be nice, but I am not comfortable thinking in an additional dimension. 

Ted Williams always preached a slight uppercut swing. 

Vlad is the product of some pretty bad hitting philosophy. This is not even complicated stuff. 

 

Made me think of this old clip of JD where he was giving swing advice

Homerun Hub (@homerunhub123) • Instagram reel

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44 likes, 1 comments - homerunhub123 on August 7, 2026: "This video captures a studio segment featuring former Major...

 

[jaysblue]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Buddy, Freddie Freeman is a 99th percentile outcome for Vlad at this point 

Almost no chance he is that good 

Edwin Encarnacion or Adrian Gonzalez might be an 80th percentile outcome 

We are looking at an Eric Hosmer situation 

Vlad has 21 fWAR, what are the odds he even gets to 40 in his career? He might be lucky to get to 30. He literally sucks. 

If he can piece together 6 more 2 WAR seasons that might be a decent outcome because he sucks balls 

Yeah talking about the 3-4 WAR Freddie Freeman, not the 6-7 WAR version. 

Hosmer was such a disappointment geez. I hope you're wrong, but that is a very good comp unfortunately. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah talking about the 3-4 WAR Freddie Freeman, not the 6-7 WAR version. 

Hosmer was such a disappointment geez. I hope you're wrong, but that is a very good comp unfortunately. 

Agree I can see the Hosmer comp

[Laika]

The Blue Jays have a fetish for this swing. If you look at all hitters from 2023 to present with the sharpest attack angle, and turn off the minimum qualifiers, the top 50 includes:

• Tapia
• Pinango
• Harold Ramirez
• Vlad
• Daz Cameron 
• Jon Berti
• Stefanic 
• Bo
• Will Wagner

All former or present flames. 

REVOLTING 

HE SWINGS LIKE A GIRL!!!!!!!!!

[Terminator]

Chandler Simpson has a higher attack angle lmao

 

[glory]

Yeah, if I had to bet money, I'd say Vlad is WAY more likely to age like Hosmer than Freeman. It's not even close. 

[Pendleton]

 

[HomeRunHomer]

The Vlad 2026 home run reel is going to be very short.

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

always assumed Ross and Shapiro had no interest in giving him that contract but Rogers made them

Shapiro pretty much said it, without saying it. 

""I’ve said this a couple of times internally, there’s only two people that I know are going to be here at the end of a contract that we sign with Vladdy and that’s Edward (Rogers) and Vladdy. So he better be involved."

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

Made me think of this old clip of JD where he was giving swing advice

Homerun Hub (@homerunhub123) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

44 likes, 1 comments - homerunhub123 on August 7, 2026: "This video captures a studio segment featuring former Major...

 

That entire segment was amazing, miss that fella.

[Brownie19]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

The Blue Jays have a fetish for this swing. If you look at all hitters from 2023 to present with the sharpest attack angle, and turn off the minimum qualifiers, the top 50 includes:

• Tapia
• Pinango
• Harold Ramirez
• Vlad
• Daz Cameron 
• Jon Berti
• Stefanic 
• Bo
• Will Wagner

All former or present flames. 

REVOLTING 

HE SWINGS LIKE A GIRL!!!!!!!!!

[SeranthonySantander]

Bo Bichete dad was Dante biccete renowned slugger.  Ramizer could have been in the HOF for Boston if he didnt do PED's

[BTS]

Has there been a more disappointing individual player season in franchise history? Vernon Wells forgetting hit to hit in 2007 was painful, but he contributed defensively and wasn't signed for half a billion dollars. Josh Johnson's 2013 was a dick punch. But this is just unbelievable 

[Spanky__99]

17 minutes ago, BTS said:

Has there been a more disappointing individual player season in franchise history? Vernon Wells forgetting hit to hit in 2007 was painful, but he contributed defensively and wasn't signed for half a billion dollars. Josh Johnson's 2013 was a dick punch. But this is just unbelievable 

.091 ISO

[Brownie19]

40 minutes ago, BTS said:

Has there been a more disappointing individual player season in franchise history? Vernon Wells forgetting hit to hit in 2007 was painful, but he contributed defensively and wasn't signed for half a billion dollars. Josh Johnson's 2013 was a dick punch. But this is just unbelievable 

That is a great question. Josh Towers 2006 is right up there too.  

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

Has there been a more disappointing individual player season in franchise history? Vernon Wells forgetting hit to hit in 2007 was painful, but he contributed defensively and wasn't signed for half a billion dollars. Josh Johnson's 2013 was a dick punch. But this is just unbelievable 

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind put up some stinkers after their very awesome 2009 seasons. 

Both were probably worse in terms of WAR.  But they weren't 80 hit tool former homerun champ, generational hitting talent signed to a 500 million dollar contract.

Hill was weird.  Basically .290 35 100, .200 25 70, .200 8 40, .300 25 90.  

Never been anything like this.  Never been this kind of contract pain for anyone.  Congratulations to Blue Jays fans.  Worst contract ever.  Franchise crippling.  

[Olerud363.354]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.   Thought we'd get our own franchise player.  Never really had one.  Maybe Delgado, but not really normalized for the era he played in.  Could have been Olerud but they mistreated him.  Could have been Alomar but Gillick stole him and then he got a bad attitude and badness to him. 

Used to be Jays pain was limited by draft picks.  If too bad they'd get the 1st overall and might a Ken Griffey Jr. or Bobby Witt that would bring joy to the fans, so had to win 70 in bad seasons, to prevent any long term joy.  

This constraint is gone.  Jays can now win 34 games and get 15th draft pick because of the penalties, so it will happen. 

We will never really have a franchise player in the mold of Griffey or Brett.

We will probably never have Joy again now that Vlad's contract has us in a free fall we'll never get out of.

Never have joy again.  Last joyrful moment the Bo homerun.  Joy only lasted 120 minutes.  Nothing positive will ever happen again for the team.

Keys will be awesome.  Kind of Pete Alonso, but it will be for another team, after they trade him for a pitcher that will get Tommy John after losing to the Rockies game 3, June 15th 2028 (after 1 year and 2.5 months of baseball wiped out). 

[Spanky__99]

Again, Vlad's ISO is .091

That fellas is disturbing.

[BTS]

6 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Again, Vlad's ISO is .091

That fellas is disturbing.

It doesn't even feel possible. How is a man that talented and that fat slugging 0.351 with 7 homeruns in over 500 PA at 27 years old? 

His SLG at Rogers Centre this season is 0.301, HOW? 

 

[glory]

12 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Shapiro pretty much said it, without saying it. 

""I’ve said this a couple of times internally, there’s only two people that I know are going to be here at the end of a contract that we sign with Vladdy and that’s Edward (Rogers) and Vladdy. So he better be involved."

Yeah there's no chance Atkins and Shapiro wanted Vlad at that contract length and price, much less the full NTC, no deferred money to help with the CBT calculations, etc. It was the least team friendly contract that I can remember seeing. I'm sure there were others like this but no where near 14 years in length. Vlad's contract might be the worst sports contract ever when you factor just how long it is. Atkins can be criticized for a lot of things but he's smarter than this. In a world where Vlad isn't extended, the Jays probably have Pete Alonso at 1B right now and the fans would have moved on. 

Rogers made this deal because he didn't want fans to revolt and attendance to drop. The irony is that's probably going to happen next season anyway, in year 2 of his contract, with Vlad's performance being the biggest reason for it. 

[Brownie19]

9 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Again, Vlad's ISO is .091

That fellas is disturbing.

So why doesn't he deserve all the smoke Spanky?  He's done exactly what we all worried he'd do on a long term deal - completely sh*t the bed.

He's now on a path to become the most hated player in Blue Jays history.  We all know he'll crumble when fans start boo'ing him every at bat.  He's got no jam. 

[Laika]

https://www.mlb.com/video/noah-cameron-in-play-out-s-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-pkd6je?q=gamePk = 822771 AND Inning = [6] Order By Timestamp ASC&p=2&pt=Pitch by Pitch - 6th Inning

 

look at the swing this f***ing broken ass idiot puts on this mid-high fastball 

[Laika]

Compare to this

https://www.mlb.com/video/noah-cameron-in-play-run-s-to-junior-caminero-3hdfp9?q=noah cameron home run&cp=MIXED&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

[Brownie19]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/noah-cameron-in-play-out-s-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-pkd6je?q=gamePk = 822771 AND Inning = [6] Order By Timestamp ASC&p=2&pt=Pitch by Pitch - 6th Inning

 

look at the swing this f***ing broken ass idiot puts on this mid-high fastball 

Maybe he should be investigated for gambling connections?

[Laika]

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, BTS said:

Has there been a more disappointing individual player season in franchise history? Vernon Wells forgetting hit to hit in 2007 was painful, but he contributed defensively and wasn't signed for half a billion dollars. Josh Johnson's 2013 was a dick punch. But this is just unbelievable 

Yeah, Vernon Wells in 2007 is definitely one that comes to mind. He had just signed that huge contract after coming off a monster 2006 season offensively, and then really struggled in 2007. He was also pretty bad again in 2009. He had some decent years mixed in - 2008 was okay and he was really solid in 2010, but unfortunately it never felt like he lived up to that contract. Because of that, he was basically public enemy No. 1 in Toronto for years.

At the time, though, that 7-year/$126M deal wasn’t completely out of line with what other big-name free agents were getting. Alfonso Soriano signed a massive deal around the same time, and Barry Zito did as well.

Josh Towers in 2006 is another one. He was arguably the Jays’ best pitcher in 2005, putting up around 3.6 WAR, and then completely fell apart the following season. Jays stuck with him for such a long time in the rotation. 

Kyle Drabek too. He was the main piece coming back in the Halladay trade and everyone thought he was going to be a fixture in the rotation for years. It just never happened.

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind after 2009 were probably two of the most disappointing for me. Both looked like they were just entering their primes and were going to be middle-of-the-order bats for years. Then things fell off so quickly for both of them.

Jose Bautista’s breakout in 2010 really did save this franchise in a lot of ways. Without that happening when it did, those early-2010s teams would have been a whole lot uglier.