Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Spanky__99]

8 hours ago, Stangstag said:

I said this the moment the contract was signed and was called a fool. 

Vlad just isn’t on the same level as guys like Judge/Soto/Ohtani and he never deserved to get paid over 300m

Called a fool, get out everyone knew that was outlandish, same goes for Soto, Bo and No Chin. Anyone calling you a fool is projecting their acumen. 

[Spanky__99]

9 hours ago, HomeRunHomer said:

You gave Vlad too much credit. He's going to have to go on late season tear just to reach a 110 wRC+.

Damn, so depressing man.

[Spanky__99]

I remember when a lot of people were mad at 135 wRC+ Vlad, I'd give my left nut for that the rest of the season, hah!

Start helping this team already, Vladito.

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

I remember when a lot of people were mad at 135 wRC+ Vlad, I'd give my left nut for that the rest of the season, hah!

Start helping this team already, Vladito.

I mentioned a couple of months ago that if Vlad could be Yandy Diaz I'd take it.  I think anyone would now.  

I think you just need to, at age 27, start over, and put him with Edwin, Jose Bautista, Yandy Diaz, as a talented late bloomer, late 20s guy who hasn't figured it out, a project, a guy with a flawed swing that needs to be fixed.  All three did and had very good runs in their 30-35 years. 

Weird, weird situation, but still salvageable.  Just have to completely start over somehow. 

[Olerud363.354]

Just now, Olerud363.354 said:

Weird, weird situation, but still salvageable.  Just have to completely start over somehow. 

A a 27 year old man that is what Vlad is.  Jose Bautista with a weird swing,  Yandy Diaz with a sub .400 slugging, Edwin.   A 27 year old man in a weird place.    Vlad and these guys were different at 19, different at 22, different at 25, but have to accept now they are the same at 27.   A failure and wasted potential, but still time to turn it around with major changes. 

Question is  I guess

a) is he injured in a non-fixable way like Mattingly and Prince Fielder ? 

b) If no to a) and a major overhaul is needed, can it be done?  Jose Bautista and Yandy Diaz didn't have 500 million in the bank so were hungry, on the other hand 500 million in the bank might be such an embarrassment that Vlad will be hungry. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

John Olerud was my favourite player as a kid.  Never had 50 homer power, or even 30, but lost his 22 homer power in 1995 hitting only 8.    Still got 2.2 WAR and 2.5 WAR in 95 and 96 as a part time player, so-called failure, benched for Jacob Brumfield after winning a batting title. 

I'll never forgive this franchise for how they treated Olerud, and seeing how Vlad gets treated just bring back the bitterness.  

If John Olerud had been given the playing time and long term contract of Vlad he would have retired a career Blue Jay and as not just a hall of famer but a first ballot hall of famer.  

Like if they just did with Olerud, what they did with Vlad.  Fully playing time from the beginning, full playing time through thick and thin. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

3 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

If John Olerud had been given the playing time and long term contract of Vlad

Argument against this is if you just give him 100 at bats more a year in the platoon years, it bumps his career counting numbers a bit but doesn't get to hall of fame counting stats.  However there would be some second order effects from giving Olerud the Vlad 155 games a year age 20-40 opportunity.   More confidence, more exposure to lefties early in career, so might hit them better later.   Opportunity to work through down seasons in his 30s (as Springer was given).  

[BTS]

wRC+ of all players who have ever played on a 500M+ contact:

Shohei Ohtani - 169

Juan Soto - 157

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 95 

 

[Spanky__99]

5 minutes ago, BTS said:

wRC+ of all players who have ever played on a 500M+ contact:

Shohei Ohtani - 169

Juan Soto - 157

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 95 

 

Thanks, tips, lol.

[Terminator]

34 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

John Olerud was my favourite player as a kid.  Never had 50 homer power, or even 30, but lost his 22 homer power in 1995 hitting only 8.    Still got 2.2 WAR and 2.5 WAR in 95 and 96 as a part time player, so-called failure, benched for Jacob Brumfield after winning a batting title. 

I'll never forgive this franchise for how they treated Olerud, and seeing how Vlad gets treated just bring back the bitterness.  

If John Olerud had been given the playing time and long term contract of Vlad he would have retired a career Blue Jay and as not just a hall of famer but a first ballot hall of famer.  

Like if they just did with Olerud, what they did with Vlad.  Fully playing time from the beginning, full playing time through thick and thin. 

 

Olerud was the man. They should have let him pitch as well.

But I agree, lock that guy up long term and he becomes a Hall of Famer.

[glory]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

wRC+ of all players who have ever played on a 500M+ contact:

Shohei Ohtani - 169

Juan Soto - 157

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 95 

 

Free agent 1B after the 2025 season with their current numbers:

Pete Alonso: 142 wRC+
Munetaka Murkami: 141 wRC+
Josh Naylor: 104 wRC+
Ryan O'Hearn: 115 wRC+
Josh Bell: 107 wRC+
Paul Goldschmidt: 112 wRC+

When the Jays could have signed Josh Bell to replace 2026 Vlad and seen a marginal difference at best, that's sorta not good. 

[BTS]

20 minutes ago, glory said:

Free agent 1B after the 2025 season with their current numbers:

Pete Alonso: 142 wRC+
Munetaka Murkami: 141 wRC+
Josh Naylor: 104 wRC+
Ryan O'Hearn: 115 wRC+
Josh Bell: 107 wRC+
Paul Goldschmidt: 112 wRC+

When the Jays could have signed Josh Bell to replace 2026 Vlad and seen a marginal difference at best, that's sorta not good. 

Oh god this is brutal. 

The team will probably miss the playoffs by like 1-2 games with Vlad putting up a 1-WAR season and being paid to put up like 5-6. It's insane that this is happening in year 1 of his deal. 

[Laika]

And then in his season closing interview he will tell fans to "be patient" 

 

And Ross will just say "we are disappointed in ourselves that we weren't able to find the correct feedback loop to get him on track. we take full responsibility." 

[Forever92]

I wouldn't have gave Vlad the big contract. Traded him for big haul instead. Those big contracts are a risk. 

I think Tampa has right idea there. Good young player get 4-5 years out of him trade him for 3 good young players. Might lose some trades but averaged out you will do much better. 

[Brownie19]

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526 likes, 47 comments - cheapseats73 on August 25, 2026: "My thoughts on what's up with Vlad Guerrero Jr #mlb...

Good little breakdown here.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

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526 likes, 47 comments - cheapseats73 on August 25, 2026: "My thoughts on what's up with Vlad Guerrero Jr #mlb...

Good little breakdown here.

It's a lot of result oriented explanation though. He says their is a rotational problem causing him to cheat and get started early to generate the bat speed which in turn means he is chasing more but because his hand-eye is so good he makes more contact, but weaker contact.  Yes... i think we can all look at the numbers and see that. 

What is causing the rotational issue? - That's the root cause and is not discussed here. Some sort of nagging injury to his core is a likely root cause. I would like one of these guys out there to do an actual mechanical side by side swing comparison from last year to this year and actually show the physical changes in his swing and timing. 

[james jones]

Vlad Jr's last season performance was not good enough to worth his contract, but now the Jays fans are hoping he can at least repeat last season is very comical.

[Stangstag]

On 8/24/2026 at 12:56 PM, BTS said:

Oh god this is brutal. 

The team will probably miss the playoffs by like 1-2 games with Vlad putting up a 1-WAR season and being paid to put up like 5-6. It's insane that this is happening in year 1 of his deal. 

Don’t worry, he’ll have a nice 6 WAR season in 2028 when we aren’t competitive at all and finish the season 68-94

[Stangstag]

7 minutes ago, james jones said:

Vlad Jr's last season performance was not good enough to worth his contract, but now the Jays fans are hoping he can at least repeat last season is very comical.

Bit of a weird situation, the 2025 definitely didn’t warrant a contract over 300m, but then he had a monster postseason would likely would have secured him 500m even as a free agent.

So, best case scenario would’ve been that we wait out the year, Vlad pops off in the playoffs like he did, and we let him walk to the Mets/Redsox for 500m.

As it stands, its nice for the org to lock up a “superstar” player to play his whole career here. Debatable if he should be considered a “star” and if he will ever come close to that production again. We just need to hope this is a blip season.

[Brownie19]

57 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

It's a lot of result oriented explanation though. He says their is a rotational problem causing him to cheat and get started early to generate the bat speed which in turn means he is chasing more but because his hand-eye is so good he makes more contact, but weaker contact.  Yes... i think we can all look at the numbers and see that. 

What is causing the rotational issue? - That's the root cause and is not discussed here. Some sort of nagging injury to his core is a likely root cause. I would like one of these guys out there to do an actual mechanical side by side swing comparison from last year to this year and actually show the physical changes in his swing and timing. 

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There's a couple.  The Castro Bros did one last year I liked, but I can't find it now.

 

 

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

It's a lot of result oriented explanation though. He says their is a rotational problem causing him to cheat and get started early to generate the bat speed which in turn means he is chasing more but because his hand-eye is so good he makes more contact, but weaker contact.  Yes... i think we can all look at the numbers and see that. 

What is causing the rotational issue? - That's the root cause and is not discussed here. Some sort of nagging injury to his core is a likely root cause. I would like one of these guys out there to do an actual mechanical side by side swing comparison from last year to this year and actually show the physical changes in his swing and timing. 

I've believed for quite some time now that he must have some sort of nagging injury - a back/rib/abdominal issue would make total sense. His bat speed is still there (in his hands) but he doesn't explode through the ball upon contact as we've seen in the past. Even just having a lingering thought that something may pop when you swing - that could have a huge impact until you shake it. 

[Laika]

He's just not a good enough player. It's sad and unfortunate, but his swing path is FLAWED and the Blue Jays did not realize it until now. 

I don't actually KNOW any of this but my guess is that when you have a 1st percentile attack angle, your timing needs to be even better than the average player because of how your swing path lines up with the trajectory of the ball. Every pitch is coming into the zone moving down, right? The typical MLB swing is going to approach the ball at a 10 degree attack angle; a slight uppercut. That means the sweet spot is moving at that angle when it makes contact. Which also means that it matches a ball dropping at that same angle. So that player can be a bit late or early and still put the sweet spot on the ball. 

It seems like Vlad does not have that benefit. If he is a bit late or a bit early his contact quality suffers more. It's like his sweet spot is not on plane with the pitch for as long as it is for a standard slugger. 

He needs new hitting coaches and he needs to spend the entire offseason rebuilding his swing so that his attack angle is more normal. And I guess a bit more tilt would be nice, but I am not comfortable thinking in an additional dimension. 

Ted Williams always preached a slight uppercut swing. 

Vlad is the product of some pretty bad hitting philosophy. This is not even complicated stuff. 

[Laika]

Like, who thought it was a good idea to invest so much money at a guy who swings almost literally down on the ball? If this guy was a little league the coaches would be saying "it's not a sword, Vlad" 

 

[Omar]

Vladdy fills the seats with balls during batting practice. I get that it is bp, but wtf?

Seems like years we have been talking about launch angles now. Still year after year there "seems" to be almost no adjustment in his physical stance, swing plane, or approach at the plate. Is this guy a cement head, thereby making him unfixable?

If there is indeed some hidden ailment well it doesnt show in his exit velos and his base running. 

My kingdom for a hitting coach that can fix this guy!

 

[Stangstag]

44 minutes ago, Laika said:

Like, who thought it was a good idea to invest so much money at a guy who swings almost literally down on the ball? If this guy was a little league the coaches would be saying "it's not a sword, Vlad" 

 

Albert Pujols and 50 other dinosaurs: NEED TO GET ON TOP OF THE BALL

Vlad needs Donaldson as a coach 

[Stangstag]

32 minutes ago, Omar said:

Vladdy fills the seats with balls during batting practice. I get that it is bp, but wtf?

Seems like years we have been talking about launch angles now. Still year after year there "seems" to be almost no adjustmeent in his physical stance, swing plane, or approach at the plate. Is this guy a cement head, thereby making him unfixable?

If there is indeed some hidden ailment well it doesnt show in his exit velos and his base running. 

My kingdom for a hitting coach that can fix this guy!

 

Its pretty clear that its all between the ears with him. As evidenced by the 2025 season, then playoffs, then current season 

[Laika]

45 minutes ago, Omar said:

Vladdy fills the seats with balls during batting practice. I get that it is bp, but wtf?

Seems like years we have been talking about launch angles now. Still year after year there "seems" to be almost no adjustment in his physical stance, swing plane, or approach at the plate. Is this guy a cement head, thereby making him unfixable?

If there is indeed some hidden ailment well it doesnt show in his exit velos and his base running. 

My kingdom for a hitting coach that can fix this guy!

 

My theory on that is simply that it's pretty easy to time up batting practice baseballs 

Even with a horrible approach angle, if your timing is bang on and you hit the ball that hard, it's going out 

Just doesn't translate to games because most of your swings will not be on time. You will be a couple degrees early or late. 

I do think he is a cement head and that makes it even more egregious that they gave him so much money

[Laika]

15 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Albert Pujols and 50 other dinosaurs: NEED TO GET ON TOP OF THE BALL

Vlad needs Donaldson as a coach 

Donaldson, Votto, Cito, Kyle Boddy's mom, there are lots of options here 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

.....

I don't actually KNOW any of this but my guess is that when you have a 1st percentile attack angle, your timing needs to be even better than the average player because of how your swing path lines up with the trajectory of the ball. Every pitch is coming into the zone moving down, right? The typical MLB swing is going to approach the ball at a 10 degree attack angle; a slight uppercut. That means the sweet spot is moving at that angle when it makes contact. Which also means that it matches a ball dropping at that same angle. So that player can be a bit late or early and still put the sweet spot on the ball. 

.....

Ted Williams always preached a slight uppercut swing. 

Yep, Ted Williams lays this out beautifully in The Science of Hitting. From the book:

To add to this, Joey Votto explained how pulling the ball requires better timing as well: (1) It shrinks the sweet spot of the bat and (2) you also have less time to react as you must get your bat out in front of you to meet the ball.

Vlad doesn't pull the ball in the air much at all and it's no surprise because it's already hard to do for any hitter for the reasons Votto mentioned, but it's even harder for Vlad because with his downward swing has his bat path in the ball's trajectory even less than everyone else. He's got to be perfect to pull a ball in the air.

Despite all this, he's been able to make it work, even if it's frustrating because he could show more power. But this year, something is happening and I'm not quite sure why.

I think he's simply (1) having a down year and all the mental struggles that come with that but (2) it's exacerbated by the league figuring him out.

If you look at his zone percentages from previous years and compare them to 2026, pitchers are throwing him up more instead of down. Attack angles on pitches up are always worse for every hitter than they are for pitches down, but I wonder if with Vlad it gets to the point that a ball up just breaks his swing completely.

Someone like Springer who has as 10 degree attack angle still has a 6 degree attack angle on a pitch up in the zone. But when Vlad has a 1 degree attack angle, he has a -4 degree attack angle on pitches up. You just can't do much with a ball when you are swinging down like that. So pitch Vlad up and he's cooked?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

 

[jaysblue]

There was probably a lot of pressure from Rogers to get Vladdy extended, especially after missing out on Ohtani, Soto and some of the other big-name free agents the previous offseason.

I thought $500M was way too much at the time, but even then I never expected him to be this bad. At worst, I figured he’d settle in as more of a 3–4 WAR player like he was in 2022.