Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[BTS]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

We are entering the worst possible timeline. He isn't even hurt and he just sucks. In his 20s.

Franchise ruining player on a franchise ruining contract 

If he keeps this up and finishes with like a 110 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR what would he get as a FA this offseason? Something like Bo got from the Mets? 

This has the potential to be one of the worst albatrosses in the history of professional sports.

[glory]

Vlad also has a full NTC and like 60% of his contract is a "signing bonus" that is paid every summer in a lump sum until his contract is over. It's literally the worst and most player friendly contract in sports. AJ Preller, who has handed out some of the worst contracts in the sport, wouldn't trade for Vlad. That's how bad that contract is. 

[Stangstag]

On 6/25/2026 at 12:53 PM, Terminator said:

 

What’s wild is that this dude is a young 1B with a build like Prince Fielder.

A 32 year old Prince Fielder with degenerative spinal issues wasn’t even this bad of a slugger.

I’d seriously love to know what actual “work” Vlad is putting in and what advice he’s getting.

Putting in 20 hours a week of dumbass drills that aren’t helping 

[Goldbug109]

9 hours ago, Stangstag said:

What’s wild is that this dude is a young 1B with a build like Prince Fielder.

A 32 year old Prince Fielder with degenerative spinal issues wasn’t even this bad of a slugger.

I’d seriously love to know what actual “work” Vlad is putting in and what advice he’s getting.

Putting in 20 hours a week of dumbass drills that aren’t helping 

If his complete uselessness continues into next year, would the Jays consider hiding him somewhere in the organization if trade options are impossible or just permanently IL him. Is there precedence for such a crippling contract ? The Chris Davis one in Baltimore comes to mind. I thoroughly believe that the front office was pushed into this by ownership. So we can’t blame Atkins for this mess. 

[BTS]

On 6/25/2026 at 12:53 PM, Terminator said:

 

ISO is down another 4 points since you posted this. He's now 6th-worst. He has a worse ISO than Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Myles Straw. 

His performance this season is so absurd that I didn't even think it was possible. It's just completely ridiculous. 

[SeranthonySantander]

He just needs to move his hands apart about an inch.  

[Olerud363.354]

12 hours ago, Laika said:

We are entering the worst possible timeline. He isn't even hurt and he just sucks. In his 20s.

Franchise ruining player on a franchise ruining contract 

For a 500 million dollar asset how much do you put into asset salvage?  1 million ?  5 million ?  25 million ? 

Should the asset salvage process be public so the fans can follow?  Like why not 20 million worth of psychologists, biomechanics experts, nutrition experts, fitness experts, sleep experts.  Entire teams devoted to every aspect of rejuvenating Vlad. 

You come to the ballpark and there is a team measuring the barometric pressure, ambient noise, and trying to time his red bull to get him maximum alertness for game time.  A team analyzing the music being played and optimizing it.  A team coaching everyone how to react to the homerun jacket situation, and whether rejecting is better, because it will wake him up, or whether just accepting is better to get some good vibes going.  All of this to try and salvage something from the 500 million dollar investment. 

[Stangstag]

19 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

For a 500 million dollar asset how much do you put into asset salvage?  1 million ?  5 million ?  25 million ? 

Should the asset salvage process be public so the fans can follow?  Like why not 20 million worth of psychologists, biomechanics experts, nutrition experts, fitness experts, sleep experts.  Entire teams devoted to every aspect of rejuvenating Vlad. 

You come to the ballpark and there is a team measuring the barometric pressure, ambient noise, and trying to time his red bull to get him maximum alertness for game time.  A team analyzing the music being played and optimizing it.  A team coaching everyone how to react to the homerun jacket situation, and whether rejecting is better, because it will wake him up, or whether just accepting is better to get some good vibes going.  All of this to try and salvage something from the 500 million dollar investment. 

Unfortunately i don’t think you can fix stupid. The only thing that pulls him out of this slump is the thing between his ears. He needs to figure out the missing link between his brain and body

[BTS]

OK this honestly just depressing. His OBP is now higher than his SLG and he has the 5-th worst ISO in the league among qualified hitters. 

Basically we should all be panicking right now. 

[bronson44]

10 minutes ago, BTS said:

OK this honestly just depressing. His OBP is now higher than his SLG and he has the 5-th worst ISO in the league among qualified hitters. 

Basically we should all be panicking right now. 

It is pretty terrifying. Like did we just lock in Anthony Rendon for 14 years?

[Laika]

HOPEFULLY it just becomes an isolated injury mismanagement story

Tried to play through something and it had disastrous results leading to a lost season 

Not sure what else to hope for because he looks like end career Prince Fielder right now 

[Brownie19]

It's amazing that we've gone from Playoff Vlad, who dominated and gave us some of the most amazing baseball memories some of us will ever have, to a mass panic because he might be the worst contract in sports history - all in the span of 9 months.  This truly goes to show how unpredictable baseball can be (Skenes is throwing 94 MPH now too - nobody had that on their bingo card).

Personally, I've always been frustrated by Vlad.  Outside of 2021, it's felt like he's underperforming and unable to consistency achieve the results his abilities suggest are possible.  But, even I fell victim to Playoff Vlad and believed there was a real possibility he'd figured something out and could find that consistency as he matured and entered his prime.  It felt like there was simply too much talent, pedigree and underlying metrics for him to completely fail - unless his weight ballooned (real concern), or he became injury prone (which has never been an issue).  I was on board with signing him long term and felt we couldn't just let him go for nothing.  I liked the possibility he'd retire a Blue Jay and head into the HOF with a Jays cap on.

This season must be a <5% percentile result.  It's an utter disaster that has almost single handedly sunk this season.  Nobody in their right mind saw this happening - not to this extent.  I think it's encouraging we don't (yet) have a mass of people claiming this is Atkins fault and calling for him to be canned.  You can suggest the contract was too player friendly, or that we overpaid if you want, but locking him up was the right call, coming off a WS appearance.  Even if we extended him for 10 years, $350M - this situation would still suck.

That said, I don't think it's as dire as people may be making it (it never is).  This season is a lost cause, but I'd be shocked if Vlad is unable to at least return to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2025 (135ish wRC+, 3.5 WAR) through his age 28-32 seasons.  He's rebounded before from subpar seasons (2023).

My youngest loves Vlad (as A LOT of kids in Ontario do) and it pains me to watch him become more and more disappointed in how sh*tty he's been.  

Baseball is an incredibly frustrating game - I've lived it my whole life.  Who's fault is it that Vlad sucks now?  Manager? GM? hitting coach? nutrition? physical? mental?    WHO KNOWS - nobody does.  I think that's why I'm often defensive when people lay blame on certain individuals - because we should know that there are often SEVERAL factors in play and sometimes it's just unexplainable.

This timing sucks goats thought.  The Jays had built a great team, with great chemistry that players actually wanted to a part of!  Will that continue this offseason after a miserable season?  Seems doubtful.  This game is so fickle - things change on a dime.  It's brutal.

 

[BTS]

31 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It's amazing that we've gone from Playoff Vlad, who dominated and gave us some of the most amazing baseball memories some of us will ever have, to a mass panic because he might be the worst contract in sports history - all in the span of 9 months.  This truly goes to show how unpredictable baseball can be (Skenes is throwing 94 MPH now too - nobody had that on their bingo card).

Personally, I've always been frustrated by Vlad.  Outside of 2021, it's felt like he's underperforming and unable to consistency achieve the results his abilities suggest are possible.  But, even I fell victim to Playoff Vlad and believed there was a real possibility he'd figured something out and could find that consistency as he matured and entered his prime.  It felt like there was simply too much talent, pedigree and underlying metrics for him to completely fail - unless his weight ballooned (real concern), or he became injury prone (which has never been an issue).  I was on board with signing him long term and felt we couldn't just let him go for nothing.  I liked the possibility he'd retire a Blue Jay and head into the HOF with a Jays cap on.

This season must be a <5% percentile result.  It's an utter disaster that has almost single handedly sunk this season.  Nobody in their right mind saw this happening - not to this extent.  I think it's encouraging we don't (yet) have a mass of people claiming this is Atkins fault and calling for him to be canned.  You can suggest the contract was too player friendly, or that we overpaid if you want, but locking him up was the right call, coming off a WS appearance.  Even if we extended him for 10 years, $350M - this situation would still suck.

That said, I don't think it's as dire as people may be making it (it never is).  This season is a lost cause, but I'd be shocked if Vlad is unable to at least return to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2025 (135ish wRC+, 3.5 WAR) through his age 28-32 seasons.  He's rebounded before from subpar seasons (2023).

My youngest loves Vlad (as A LOT of kids in Ontario do) and it pains me to watch him become more and more disappointed in how sh*tty he's been.  

Baseball is an incredibly frustrating game - I've lived it my whole life.  Who's fault is it that Vlad sucks now?  Manager? GM? hitting coach? nutrition? physical? mental?    WHO KNOWS - nobody does.  I think that's why I'm often defensive when people lay blame on certain individuals - because we should know that there are often SEVERAL factors in play and sometimes it's just unexplainable.

This timing sucks goats thought.  The Jays had built a great team, with great chemistry that players actually wanted to a part of!  Will that continue this offseason after a miserable season?  Seems doubtful.  This game is so fickle - things change on a dime.  It's brutal.

 

Extension was signed before the 2025 season. I can't imagine what he would have swindled Rogers for if it was actually after his playoff run. 700M? 

[Brownie19]

26 minutes ago, BTS said:

Extension was signed before the 2025 season. I can't imagine what he would have swindled Rogers for if it was actually after his playoff run. 700M? 

Aw yes, how quickly my memory is eroding.  Points still hold - I did feel signing him long term was the right call at the time based on his strong 2024 (not Playoff Vlad).

It will be fascinating to see what Vlad does following this utterly embarrassing season.  Will he head back home to fatten up on grandma's cooking while flipping a few tires and participating in home run derby's for social media purposes?  Or will he stay in Dunedin, enter the lab and get to work like a man?  I think most shared the concern that he'd turn into a lazy, fat bum once he got his bag of money.  We're about to find out!

Luckily, I think fans will turn on him and it's going to be a long, sad career if he's a 1.5 WAR overpaid bum who fans boooo every time he comes to the plate for the next 14 years.  I do think Vlad genuinely wants Toronto and their fans to love him and thus I think there's a decent chance he gets to work in the offseason to do what he can to turn this around.

[Laika]

He is 27 now and has never shown the cognitive ability or willingness to put in the "right" work.

His swing has been categorically broken for the majority of his major league career. Even 2024, you can point to a BABIP spike holding things up. 

If his wRC+ is or was below say 150 then he is underperforming his tools and natural ability. Just treading water, really. 

Zero talent-based reason for him to not be Yordan Alvarez. 

It's all between the ears and unfortunately for us that brain is done growing. 

It's never been more over for him or the franchise or us. 

Time to get sad. For a long time. Call your doctor. 

[Brownie19]

25 minutes ago, Laika said:

He is 27 now and has never shown the cognitive ability or willingness to put in the "right" work.

His swing has been categorically broken for the majority of his major league career. Even 2024, you can point to a BABIP spike holding things up. 

If his wRC+ is or was below say 150 then he is underperforming his tools and natural ability. Just treading water, really. 

Zero talent-based reason for him to not be Yordan Alvarez. 

It's all between the ears and unfortunately for us that brain is done growing. 

It's never been more over for him or the franchise or us. 

Time to get sad. For a long time. Call your doctor. 

I do believe I was the one telling everyone in the 2024 offseason to "wake me up in 2032 (or something like that) when we'll be good again".  Maybe I was right after all.  Thank god we were gifted 2025.  It was truly magical.

[glory]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

HOPEFULLY it just becomes an isolated injury mismanagement story

Tried to play through something and it had disastrous results leading to a lost season 

Not sure what else to hope for because he looks like end career Prince Fielder right now 

I'm almost positive that we will hear "Vlad played through X injury all season" whenever his season is done (either end of the year or if they put him on the IL before then). I don't think that will even make a difference at this point. This is year 1 of 14. It's going to feel like 100 years by the end of it. It's just a matter of how many negative WAR seasons he will have by the time he hits enough singles to get to 3000 hits. 

[Laika]

Just look at Pujols from age 32 or 33 on. 

That is what we are getting. It's just staring five or six years earlier.

There is no God. 

We get to watch the light slowly drain from Vladimir Guerrero Jr's eyes. 

Will he even survive the contract? Like literally survive until it is over. 

Wow.  

[glory]

Miguel Cabrera from age 34-40 had five negative WAR seasons (-2.1 WAR and 93 wRC+ over that span), and Miggy was a much better player than Vlad on a consistent basis. Impossible to predict the way Vlad ages (probably won't be well), but only way this contract made any sense was if 1) the front end of it was great, and 2) the Jays were competitive at the same time. Neither happening in Year 1 is a nightmare scenario.

[Olerud363.354]

5 hours ago, glory said:

Miguel Cabrera from age 34-40 had five negative WAR seasons (-2.1 WAR and 93 wRC+ over that span), and Miggy was a much better player than Vlad on a consistent basis. Impossible to predict the way Vlad ages (probably won't be well), but only way this contract made any sense was if 1) the front end of it was great, and 2) the Jays were competitive at the same time. Neither happening in Year 1 is a nightmare scenario.

What players have deteriorated like this at age 27 and then came back for a few years?  Can honestly not think of anyone.  Name a player who was awesome at 21 and 25 then hit like this at age 27?

He's on pace for 7 homers.   This happens to some at 27, it happened to Willie Upshaw.  It happened to Don Mattingly, it happened to Jayson Heyward.

They became .260 hitters with .360 slugging in what should have been prime.

Has anyone ever come back from this?  Seriously.  Mattingly got back up to .280 with 7 homers or something, but that is not coming back (he had a bad back too). 

[Olerud363.354]

Closest I can think of is Kevin Mitchell.

47 homer guy with great power.  Traded to Seattle.

Hits like 9 homers and is useless.

Goes to Cincinnatyi, hits like Albert Pujols  for 3 years (albeit injured half the time)

Mark Mcgwire.  Hit .202 with .380 slugging at age 27 then hit .290 .450 .700 or some insane thing for 5 years. 

Mark Mcgwire yes.  That is it. 

mark Mcqwire did it.  Vlad can too.  Vlad is arguably in a lower state (absolutely no power) then Mitchell and Mcgwire so will be tough to get back.  

[xposbrad]

5 hours ago, glory said:

Miguel Cabrera from age 34-40 had five negative WAR seasons (-2.1 WAR and 93 wRC+ over that span), and Miggy was a much better player than Vlad on a consistent basis. Impossible to predict the way Vlad ages (probably won't be well), but only way this contract made any sense was if 1) the front end of it was great, and 2) the Jays were competitive at the same time. Neither happening in Year 1 is a nightmare scenario.

Ya, we had to realistically expect this to be something like an 8/500m year deal, we figured at age 33/34 he was going to hit replacement level or negative war. So Vlad has to be amazing every year to be worth 62.5m a year. It was just a really really bad contract from the get go, and management is lucky they are pushing a 290m payroll. The last 7-8 years of this are going to be utterly terrible. I mean Vladdy most likely comes back to a 3-4 war player (we hope) next year. We all realistically expected this decline to happen around 30, the fact it's happening now and he's not giving the team 6-7 WAR in his peak years means he will have to be that much better later on which is most likely not happening. 

[SeranthonySantander]

Maybe they just pay him $100 million and let him retire?   Yea it’s not the $500m but it would be enough to support his family entourage for life, plus he would have all the free time in his 20s and 30s which is worth more than money.

[Brownie19]

3 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

What players have deteriorated like this at age 27 and then came back for a few years?  Can honestly not think of anyone.  Name a player who was awesome at 21 and 25 then hit like this at age 27?

He's on pace for 7 homers.   This happens to some at 27, it happened to Willie Upshaw.  It happened to Don Mattingly, it happened to Jayson Heyward.

They became .260 hitters with .360 slugging in what should have been prime.

Has anyone ever come back from this?  Seriously.  Mattingly got back up to .280 with 7 homers or something, but that is not coming back (he had a bad back too). 

Adrian Beltre hit 48 HRs with a 161 wRC+ at age 25 and followed it up with 19 HRs and a 90 wRC+.  He also had just 8 HRs in 477 PAs with a 81 wRC+ at age 30.

He's in the HOF

[Olerud363.354]

25 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Adrian Beltre hit 48 HRs with a 161 wRC+ at age 25 and followed it up with 19 HRs and a 90 wRC+.  He also had just 8 HRs in 477 PAs with a 81 wRC+ at age 30.

He's in the HOF

That is a good comparable from the positive side.  Started young, had one great season in his 20s, but awful seasons at age 26 and 30.  Vlad walks more, but otherwise a good or bad Adrian Beltre season could be Vlad. 

Was a very good hitter in his 30s and even late 30s.