Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Bobthe4th]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-interest-gibson-odorizzi-need-pivot-bolster-staff/

 

Jays made an offer of Gibson.

 

Relevant part that explains why some people are going to be disappointed with what we end up with:

 

”To get anything done, however, the Blue Jays are going to have to overpay and a question for them to wrestle with is whether it’s better to spend big on someone who could make a significant difference or to limit risk overpaying a smaller amount on someone with less upside.

 

Even in this era of stifled free agency, the words of Andrew Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations, during the 2016 winter meetings ring true: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

 

The reality for the Blue Jays is that as a rebuilding club in the American League East, there’s a premium to get an in-demand free agent to choose them. Toronto is a world-class city that deserves better, but some players still need to be enticed to move across the border. From a competitiveness standpoint, few are willing to slog it out with kids on the make when they can join a winner for similar money.”

[Ray]

I liked Kyle Gibson mainly because of the surplus value he could've provided on his MLBTR projected contract (2 years, $18M). I don't think I would've gone any higher than say, 3 years and $27M.

 

Friedman is right when he says " “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”. Kyle Gibson is not worth avoiding rationality for, however.

[Terminator]

I don't understand you guys lol. I'm not saying Gibson's a slam dunk, every FA carries a sort of premium that contains risk. But 3 years and 30 million (or whatever reasonable number it would have taken to beat that) is peanuts for a pitcher projected for 3 WAR next year. No QO either.

 

Will be interesting to see what other 2 starting pitchers we get that are going to be better than Gibson and his deal but I'm skeptical that will actually happen.

[Terminator]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-interest-gibson-odorizzi-need-pivot-bolster-staff/

 

Jays made an offer of Gibson.

 

I'd love to know that offer. Perhaps we did make a sizable offer and he just didn't want to come in which case there's nothing Shatkins could have done.

[Ray]

I don't understand you guys lol. I'm not saying Gibson's a slam dunk, every FA carries a sort of premium that contains risk. But 3 years and 30 million (or whatever reasonable number it would have taken to beat that) is peanuts for a pitcher projected for 3 WAR next year. No QO either.

 

Will be interesting to see what other 2 starting pitchers we get that are going to be better than Gibson and his deal but I'm skeptical that will actually happen.

 

We likely would've had to offer $40M and 4 years to actually get him? That's more money than I care to spend on a guy who only posted an ERA+ greater than 100 twice in his 7 seasons. He was attractive at 3/30, but that's kind of the upper limit for him.

 

If we're going to be spending $40M anyways, I'd rather use that to shell out $52M to Keuchel. Similar vein pitcher in terms of giving up a lot of hits, but he's had a long track record of doing well despite that. Gibson, not so much.

[Ray]

Free agents aside, what other pitching trade candidates are interesting?

[Orgfiller]

I don't understand you guys lol. I'm not saying Gibson's a slam dunk, every FA carries a sort of premium that contains risk. But 3 years and 30 million (or whatever reasonable number it would have taken to beat that) is peanuts for a pitcher projected for 3 WAR next year. No QO either.

 

Will be interesting to see what other 2 starting pitchers we get that are going to be better than Gibson and his deal but I'm skeptical that will actually happen.

 

I think Gibson at 3/30 is a very good deal but if our "premium" to sign him was anywhere in the 3/40-45 range or an additional year for same AAV then I don't think he would have been worth it necessarily. I doubt Gibson took a huge discount to go to Texas, so the market dictated that 3/30 was a fair deal for him and perhaps we should adjust our evaluation as well.

[Laika]

I don't understand you guys lol. I'm not saying Gibson's a slam dunk, every FA carries a sort of premium that contains risk. But 3 years and 30 million (or whatever reasonable number it would have taken to beat that) is peanuts for a pitcher projected for 3 WAR next year. No QO either.

 

Will be interesting to see what other 2 starting pitchers we get that are going to be better than Gibson and his deal but I'm skeptical that will actually happen.

 

He’s worth 3/30 anyway but give me the under on his projections.

[saskjayfan]

Just go sign Kim and Ryu. We can call them the Korean Killers.

[Abomination]

Just go sign Kim and Ryu. We can call them the Korean Killers.

 

Even Chen could be worth a look. He's only owed the min, so you can move him into the pen or cut him without much pain.

[Dick_Pole]

RE: Profar and Villar.

 

Yes either/or would have been a great addition. My main concern is that Villar was shopped and Profar probably was too before these decisions were made. If the Jays were in on either of these guys, they could have easily secured them by sending a low level prospect in return. I wouldn't get your hopes up as armchair GM.

[Abomination]

Free agents aside, what other pitching trade candidates are interesting?

 

I don't know if they're available or not, but some guys who might not cost an arm and a leg are

 

Tyler Mahle

Joey Lucchesi

Alex Reyes

Dylan Bundy (cut?)

[Grant77]

RE: Profar and Villar.

 

Yes either/or would have been a great addition. My main concern is that Villar was shopped and Profar probably was too before these decisions were made. If the Jays were in on either of these guys, they could have easily secured them by sending a low level prospect in return. I wouldn't get your hopes up as armchair GM.

 

It's plausible that we've waited on Villar with the intention of claiming him for nothing. They're going to play somewhere and I don't see why the delay would make us a less likely landing spot.

[z3r0s]

It's plausible that we've waited on Villar with the intention of claiming him for nothing. They're going to play somewhere and I don't see why the delay would make us a less likely landing spot.

 

Not sure that seems like a good plan. Just pay basically nothing to get him if you want him. $1 is theoretically better than non-tendering him for Baltimore (although they do seem very dumb)

[Spanky99]

Just go sign Kim and Ryu. We can call them the Korean Killers.

 

I'd be happy with that, though, I'd rather have Keuchel over a WC player.

[Spanky99]

I think Gibson at 3/30 is a very good deal but if our "premium" to sign him was anywhere in the 3/40-45 range or an additional year for same AAV then I don't think he would have been worth it necessarily. I doubt Gibson took a huge discount to go to Texas, so the market dictated that 3/30 was a fair deal for him and perhaps we should adjust our evaluation as well.

 

Also, no taxes in Texas.

[Spanky99]

Even Chen could be worth a look. He's only owed the min, so you can move him into the pen or cut him without much pain.

 

WAT??? Geez... man.

[Grant77]

Not sure that seems like a good plan. Just pay basically nothing to get him if you want him. $1 is theoretically better than non-tendering him for Baltimore (although they do seem very dumb)

 

If you are confident that Kansas City and Detroit will not claim him then it's probably a good plan. There's a good chance that we never wanted him to begin with, however.

[Spanky99]

RE: Profar and Villar.

 

Yes either/or would have been a great addition. My main concern is that Villar was shopped and Profar probably was too before these decisions were made. If the Jays were in on either of these guys, they could have easily secured them by sending a low level prospect in return. I wouldn't get your hopes up as armchair GM.

 

Profar was tendered, bro. He'd need to be acquired via trade, and he's on the market. I'm sure Toronto's kicking tires at the least.

[TheHurl]

I'd love to know that offer. Perhaps we did make a sizable offer and he just didn't want to come in which case there's nothing Shatkins could have done.

 

2 years $22M

[Spanky99]

2 years $22M

 

Guesstimate or little birdies in your ear? I hope it isn't the latter, cause they needed to add 8M at the least. *sighs*

 

If the Jays offered another year at his current AAV, he might've taken it. I would of been cool with that.

[TheHurl]

Guesstimate or little birdies in your ear? I hope it isn't the latter, cause they needed to add 8M at the least. *sighs*

 

If you email Atkins he just tells you. Honestly I just saw it on Twitter or something. Sounds about right though.

[Spanky99]

If you email Atkins he just tells you. Honestly I just saw it on Twitter or something. Sounds about right though.

 

*phew*

[Maico450]

With Cherington at the helm, Marte would have to be relatively easy to trade for. Put Marte and Villar in the batting lineup, then all of a sudden top FA pitchers are going to consider Toronto as being close to contenders. Teoscar and Orelvis Martinez should get Marte.

[Spanky99]

Rays castoff Jesus Aguilar could be interesting target for Blue Jays...

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/rays-castoff-jesus-aguilar-could-be-interesting-target-for-blue-jays-202427674.html

[Laika]

Man, Aguilar looks worse than Rowdy at a glance. Not really interested.

[Barkerfan23]

I see very little in free agency that has any value

[Maico450]

I guess it should be noted that Villar is still an Oriole up until Dec. 2nd, and can be traded up until that time. On Dec. 2nd if The Orioles have not tendered him a contract, then he becomes a free agent.

[Laika]

Imagine even thinking about tendering guys like Brandon Drury and Derek Law when some of these other players will be available?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/2019-non-tender-candidates-mlb-2019.html

[Spanky99]

I guess it should be noted that Villar is still an Oriole up until Dec. 2nd, and can be traded up until that time. On Dec. 2nd if The Orioles have not tendered him a contract, then he becomes a free agent.

 

I thought you were incorrect, apparently not, so he can still end up an Oriole after all.

 

 

https://birdswatcher.com/2019/11/27/baltimore-orioles-updates-dylan-bundy-jonathan-villar-trades/