Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[L54]

Bailey isn't getting a 2-3 year deal worth 15M AAV lol. He had a solid rebound this season, but c'mon. No team is giving him that type of cash and term.

 

Even Alex Wood. No team is giving him a multi-year deal, unless they throw in a club option.

 

Free agency has changed.

 

I didn't say Homer Bailey is getting 3/45 lol

 

I specifically said they will be looking at guys who require 2-3 year commitments at roughly 10-15M dollars. Obviously one year commitments are even better but it's hard to imagine Toronto being any starter's first choice on a one year deal. I'm confident you actually agree with me but chose to play semantics instead.

[L54]

I keep feeling like Wheeler is a landmine. Maybe he takes off like Scherzer did, but I can't help feeling that he'll continue to be a 4 xFIP kind of guy, and probably get 20-25M a year for it. Go big on Cole, or sign some mid-range guys who don't carry the term risk. Maybe Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda (who should come with a discount for the suspension), Roark, Ryu, Wacha. Then sign a wildcard guy like a Ross or Smyly.

 

I think my preference among those guys would be Pineda and Ryu, with Smyly added as a wildcard.

 

Ryu

Pineda/Gibson/Odorizzi

Thornton

Kay

Smyly (or an opener if he sucks too much)

 

Not a pretty rotation, but one that I think could outperform expectations without tying up a bunch of future money.

 

No it's not pretty but it has the potential to outperform at least and help the team be competitive without tying up a bunch of payroll like you said. That's exactly what I want to see happen this year.

 

The guys they bring in don't really matter to me, they've all got warts and they're all within the same realm of talent level. I don't see the big fish coming to Toronto who just lost 90+ games when they'll be coveted by teams with a WS chance.

[Brownie19]

I keep feeling like Wheeler is a landmine. Maybe he takes off like Scherzer did, but I can't help feeling that he'll continue to be a 4 xFIP kind of guy, and probably get 20-25M a year for it.

 

Dude - he's coming off a 4.2 and 4.7 WAR season (9th best in baseball over the past 2 years)

 

It all depends what the years/$ difference between Wheeler and Cole/Stras is. If Cole is 8 years $240M and Wheeler is 5 years $115M - I'm taking the value of Wheeler all day. If Wheeler is 6 years $180M, then I'd rather take Cole.

[Orgfiller]

Dude - he's coming off a 4.2 and 4.7 WAR season (9th best in baseball over the past 2 years)

 

It all depends what the years/$ difference between Wheeler and Cole/Stras is. If Cole is 8 years $240M and Wheeler is 5 years $115M - I'm taking the value of Wheeler all day. If Wheeler is 6 years $180M, then I'd rather take Cole.

 

Abom's point is more along his xFIP perhaps being a stronger indicator of what we should expect from Wheeler than his FIP which led to consecutive 4 win seasons. His FIP- the last two seasons were an excellent 80, but his xFIP- were more around ~93, which is more of a 2.5-3.5 win starter over a full season. It's certainly good, but as a 29 year old (with injury history to boot) there's definitely risk that he regresses to his xFIP and the 5/115 that you're suggesting doesn't look too great and at best we're just about breaking even on someone taking up a significant portion of our payroll. Does Wheeler actually have the ability to suppress homers? Maybe the FO's internal metrics believe so and then it could be a steal as you're getting a poor man's ace for good value.

[Abomination]

Dude - he's coming off a 4.2 and 4.7 WAR season (9th best in baseball over the past 2 years)

 

It all depends what the years/$ difference between Wheeler and Cole/Stras is. If Cole is 8 years $240M and Wheeler is 5 years $115M - I'm taking the value of Wheeler all day. If Wheeler is 6 years $180M, then I'd rather take Cole.

 

I like Wheeler, but I think you're probably looking at a 3ish WAR pitcher with injury concerns (albeit one who DOES have the talent to break out and become an ace). That's still valuable, but I don't really want to risk 5/115 on someone like that. You'd probably get much better production out of Ryu on a 3/50 deal or something. Now if Wheeler came in at 5/90, then sure. You're basically subtracting a year for injury, and we probably break even on the other four.

[TheHurl]

I still think the Jays are going the trade route for their pitching.

[Abomination]

I still think the Jays are going the trade route for their pitching.

 

Definitely possible. Maybe we take on a contract from a team that's going to tear it down?

[Grant77]

Definitely possible. Maybe we take on a contract from a team that's going to tear it down?

 

It's hard to predict who is going to tear down, but I could see us giving up some prospect capital for younger arb guys that haven't quite found their niche. Maybe a Robbie Ray or Steven Matz type. I still think out FO is still looking for long term guys and not actually looking to compete next year.

[The Iceman]

I like Wheeler, but I think you're probably looking at a 3ish WAR pitcher with injury concerns (albeit one who DOES have the talent to break out and become an ace). That's still valuable, but I don't really want to risk 5/115 on someone like that. You'd probably get much better production out of Ryu on a 3/50 deal or something. Now if Wheeler came in at 5/90, then sure. You're basically subtracting a year for injury, and we probably break even on the other four.

 

Ryu makes $17.9 million and just had a Cy Young type season. He will blow past 3 x $50 million

[Bobthe4th]

Definitely possible. Maybe we take on a contract from a team that's going to tear it down?

 

Cleveland? They could be looking to move on from Carrasco after he was moved to the bullpen when he came back from his illness.

[Spanky99]

Ryu makes $17.9 million and just had a Cy Young type season. He will blow past 3 x $50 million

 

He's 32 and the health history is spotty at best, 3/50 sounds about right to me.

[THANOS]

Just heard Calloway was fired. Would love to bring him in as our new Pitching Coach.

 

There's the Cleveland connection and he did wonders with Carrasco and Kluber.

[Terminator]

Been on vacation for a while so just jumping in to this but we probably need 2 quality starting pitchers, 2-3 relievers, a 1B and then a backup SS for the bench. A DH might be a good idea too but my guess is we leave that spot open and rotate players through. Might be a good idea anyway with our weak IF defense to give them time off at DH occasionally while sliding a capable INF into the starting lineup. Can also put an OF at DH on occasion as well.

 

We may need a CF too unless Fisher, Teoscar or Grichuk could handle the duties there. Throw in Gurriel though and if we add a CF that would be 5 OFers. Given the FO's tendency to run a 3 man bench and 8 man bullpen I'm not sure how that will work out.

 

All that said, I'm not confident we are going to fill even half of these needs given Atkins' recent comments but hopefully I'm surprised.

[TheHurl]

Cleveland? They could be looking to move on from Carrasco after he was moved to the bullpen when he came back from his illness.

 

Cleveland, Boston, Cubs and Giants are potential options to sell in a what looks like it will be an aggressive buyers market.

[glory]

There seems to be talk of the Mets trading Syndergaard in the winter. I don't think the Jays are ready to trade top prospects, but trading with Brody is too appealing not to at least kick the tires on.

[Brownie19]

Cleveland, Boston, Cubs and Giants are potential options to sell in a what looks like it will be an aggressive buyers market.

 

I heard a rumour the Red Sox might give David Price away this offseason. Would you take on that contract if Boston would add one of their top prospects (yes - their top prospects kinda stink). Dalbec/Casas/Duran?

[Abomination]

I heard a rumour the Red Sox might give David Price away this offseason. Would you take on that contract if Boston would add one of their top prospects (yes - their top prospects kinda stink). Dalbec/Casas/Duran?

 

I think I'd have to say no. Price would have to average like 4 WAR / year just to break even on that contract, and he's probably no longer that pitcher. Now if they attached someone like Benintendi to him, the answer would be different.

[Brownie19]

I think I'd have to say no. Price would have to average like 4 WAR / year just to break even on that contract, and he's probably no longer that pitcher. Now if they attached someone like Benintendi to him, the answer would be different.

 

You think he'd be available? I immediately scoffed at your idea; although when you look at it - he's only been a 2 WAR player in 2 of the past 3 years. Is 2018 the outlier?

 

btw - when did Fangraphs remove the ability to review the contract breakdown? super annoying.

[Abomination]

You think he'd be available? I immediately scoffed at your idea; although when you look at it - he's only been a 2 WAR player in 2 of the past 3 years. Is 2018 the outlier?

 

btw - when did Fangraphs remove the ability to review the contract breakdown? super annoying.

 

Yeah, I use baseball-reference for contracts. I don't think he would be available in a deal like that, but something like that would make me okay with taking on Price's full contract.

[Brownie19]

Yeah, I use baseball-reference for contracts. I don't think he would be available in a deal like that, but something like that would make me okay with taking on Price's full contract.

 

Guess it depends how serious they are about getting under the luxury tax - and about keeping Mookie Betts. There is a slight possibility that it's the perfect storm.

[Slade]

I heard a rumour the Red Sox might give David Price away this offseason. Would you take on that contract if Boston would add one of their top prospects (yes - their top prospects kinda stink). Dalbec/Casas/Duran?

 

Not a bad idea to be honest but I don't think they bite on it.

[Nofunatall]

There seems to be talk of the Mets trading Syndergaard in the winter. I don't think the Jays are ready to trade top prospects, but trading with Brody is too appealing not to at least kick the tires on.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mets-wont-trade-noah-syndergaard-edwin-diaz.html

[Orgfiller]

I heard a rumour the Red Sox might give David Price away this offseason. Would you take on that contract if Boston would add one of their top prospects (yes - their top prospects kinda stink). Dalbec/Casas/Duran?

 

I don't think even with their top prospect that it's worth it. If they paid between 35-50% of their salary and tacked on a top guy then that's where the conversation starts IMO. Even Price at $16MM per season is still very hefty.

[Dick_Pole]

There is absolutely zero chance that the Red Sox send away anyone of value just for the privilege of getting rid of Price's contract, least of all to a division rival. I think you guys have the right idea, but the wrong team. You need to find a useful but expensive pitcher on a team where the front office and ownership already have no credibility with the casual fan base. Think Pirates with Liriano.

[Brownie19]

There is absolutely zero chance that the Red Sox send away anyone of value just for the privilege of getting rid of Price's contract, least of all to a division rival. I think you guys have the right idea, but the wrong team. You need to find a useful but expensive pitcher on a team where the front office and ownership already have no credibility with the casual fan base. Think Pirates with Liriano.

 

Meh - it's an easy sell

 

"fans - we had to move Price and his salary so we could retain Mookie Betts"

[Key22]

I don't really see the point of merely doing a little better than this year. In the market to spend $30million on a few borderline number 3 starters isn't really going to move the needle much especially when we blow the games in the 9th anyway without an actual closer.

 

If the goal is to be an out and out playoff caliber team by 2021 (is that the goal???) then I see no reason not to get or at least try to get elite talent. 3 starters, 3 GOOD relievers (retaining Giles).

 

Hypothetically, lets say the Jays

Extended Giles (5 years)

Signed Cole (7 years)

Signed Bumgarner (4 years)

Signed Keuchel (2 years)

Signed Odorizzi (3 years)

Signed Will Harris (RP) (3 years)

Signed Will Smith (RP) (3 years)

Signed Anthony Rendon (8 years) Move Vlad to first base.

 

They can afford to do all of that with money left in the bank.

 

That should at least get you a wild card no? Add up the WAR boys.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't really see the point of merely doing a little better than this year. In the market to spend $30million on a few borderline number 3 starters isn't really going to move the needle much especially when we blow the games in the 9th anyway without an actual closer.

 

If the goal is to be an out and out playoff caliber team by 2021 (is that the goal???) then I see no reason not to get or at least try to get elite talent. 3 starters, 3 GOOD relievers (retaining Giles).

 

Hypothetically, lets say the Jays

Extended Giles (5 years)

Signed Cole (7 years)

Signed Bumgarner (4 years)

Signed Keuchel (2 years)

Signed Odorizzi (3 years)

Signed Will Harris (RP) (3 years)

Signed Will Smith (RP) (3 years)

Signed Anthony Rendon (8 years) Move Vlad to first base.

 

They can afford to do all of that with money left in the bank.

 

That should at least get you a wild card no? Add up the WAR boys.

 

Hahahahahahaha, keep dreaming

[Spanky99]

I don't really see the point of merely doing a little better than this year. In the market to spend $30million on a few borderline number 3 starters isn't really going to move the needle much especially when we blow the games in the 9th anyway without an actual closer.

 

If the goal is to be an out and out playoff caliber team by 2021 (is that the goal???) then I see no reason not to get or at least try to get elite talent. 3 starters, 3 GOOD relievers (retaining Giles).

 

Hypothetically, lets say the Jays

Extended Giles (5 years)

Signed Cole (7 years)

Signed Bumgarner (4 years)

Signed Keuchel (2 years)

Signed Odorizzi (3 years)

Signed Will Harris (RP) (3 years)

Signed Will Smith (RP) (3 years)

Signed Anthony Rendon (8 years) Move Vlad to first base.

 

They can afford to do all of that with money left in the bank.

 

That should at least get you a wild card no? Add up the WAR boys.

 

Giles? The rest, I don't know what to tell you.

[Key22]

Giles? The rest, I don't know what to tell you.

 

You can tell me it will never happen. But I know that. I keep reading those articles that suggest Shatkins will be fired if they don't win next year. And when GM's are on that bubble sometimes they do stupid crap to save their jobs. They blow up the plan.

 

Plus it's a corporate owner who doesn't give a crap about winning - they care about net profit. A private owner will sometimes say screw it I want Rendon and I will pay $400 million to get him - overriding the GM. That probably doesn't happen in Toronto.

 

Our team payroll next year including Tulo is something like $40 million from what I have read. That drops to $30m in 2021. So assuming the Jays could spend $165 million and with Shatkins about to get fired if they don't win a very respectable number of games in 2020. I don't know. If I were in the job I might want to overshoot and guarantee me some wins to save my ass.

[TheHurl]

I heard a rumour the Red Sox might give David Price away this offseason. Would you take on that contract if Boston would add one of their top prospects (yes - their top prospects kinda stink). Dalbec/Casas/Duran?

 

He is going to Atlanta for Austin Riley