We are in year 4 of the Shatkins era. How much time do you give them?

[King]

The shine really came off Galvis in a hurry.

If by that you mean playing to his talent level, then yeah. He's been a pretty consistent 80 wRC+ hitter for the past 4 seasons.

[leaffie]

I didnt like the Shapiro hiring at the time and said so. So far in year 4 this is the worst team I ever remember watching. He has traded away what assets we had, for not much, whether that is due to inury or his waiting too long to move.

 

This team cant hit, certainly cant catch the ball and,other than Stroman, there is not a pitcher that starts that anyone can look at and think, we have a chance to win the game. Sanchez has an attitude problem, calls out his teammates with no repercussions, and takes the mound with a sullen attitude.

 

There is a manager that seems like he was hired because he had a great deal of knowledge of stats etc, but doesnt use them.

 

They bring up a kid who no doubt will be terrific but put him in a position that he couldnt possibly live up to the hype.

 

The farm system is rated third but exactly when will all those players actually start to make their way to the majors, in what year. And where is the pitching. Ok, so the team will have money to go out and buy pitching, but how many free agents will come to T.O.

 

The outfield is embarassing. Grichuk is given a long term contract for what so far has been mediocre results. We had that in Pillar.

 

Yes, they are rebuilding, but the Yankees managed a rebuild without putting an embarassing team on the field.

 

Other than Vladdy, who on this team that should be a sure thing.

 

In all my years, and they are many, there has never been a time when I would turn off the game and walk away because I didnt like the team, even JP Ricciardi ‘s teams. But this year it happens more and more.

 

Fans will go along with rebuilds but they have to be able to look forward and see the future, and if Shapiros promise is three or four more years away, the fans wont be there. Looked at the attemdance so far, it is sinking to expo levels and it isnt going to be better in August.

 

This is just my opinion, and I know that it is the odd man out on this board, but Shapiro and company will be fired before the end of 2020 if there is not significant progress

[Ray]

Grichuk is pretty much the same dude he was in St. Louis with slightly fewer K's. Decent player, 2 WAR type, but he hasn't taken that step forward yet. If it happens, then that would be a point for the front office, but so far it looks like they made a good trade for a good player who simply maintained the level he had previously. It's not like he came to Toronto and took a step forward. That's my point. The Jays have not shown the ability to make players, hitters in particular, take a leap forward in their development aside from Smoak.

 

Randal Grichuk is still only 27 years old. If you look at standard aging curves, there's a good chance he's going to improve within the coming years. Through age 26, he's already been better by wRC+ than guys like Josh Reddick, JD Martinez, Michael Brantley were at his age.

 

On top of that, they sold low on a lot of their veteran talent in order to go for a WC spot in 2017-18, so they weren't able to maximize returns there. That puts more pressure on player development to compensate for that lost opportunity.

 

You really can't blame them for trying in 2017. No front office tears down an entire roster after going to the ALCS, and Shapiro has all but said the 2017-2018 seasons were veiled attempts to compete to keep interest high, and reading between the lines, it seemed like much more of an ownership decision than a front office one. If there's one big mishap this front office has made, it's trying to compete in the AL East in 2018 with those Red Sox and Yankees teams. And if it really was an ownership decision, Shapiro should've convinced Ed Rogers otherwise.

 

Like I said, I like Shatkins, but I can't sit here and pretend that this is a well oil machine that maximizes the talents of their players. That needs to change. They can't spend like the Yankees/Red Sox, and can't do what the Rays do, so they need to be way more successful at finding the underutilized talents and having them become good under their watch.

 

You do realize that player development isn't linear, nor does it happen overnight, right? Smoak was acquired before the 2015 season, and it wasn't until 2017 that he figured it out. You can't judge a whole player development system based on such small sample sizes, especially when it comes to such young players. Judging guys like Billy McKinney, Teoscar Hernandez, Brandon Drury on 1 and a half month small sample sizes is dumb.

[glory]

Randal Grichuk is still only 27 years old. If you look at standard aging curves, there's a good chance he's going to improve within the coming years. Through age 26, he's already been better by wRC+ than guys like Josh Reddick, JD Martinez, Michael Brantley were at his age.

 

He also has a 5-6% BB% for his career and is in an era where he will increasingly see more and more off speed stuff. I think expecting a huge breakout, beyond the 2.5 WAR type that he has been, is not as likely as I would have thought a year ago.

 

 

You really can't blame them for trying in 2017. No front office tears down an entire roster after going to the ALCS, and Shapiro has all but said the 2017-2018 seasons were veiled attempts to compete to keep interest high, and reading between the lines, it seemed like much more of an ownership decision than a front office one. If there's one big mishap this front office has made, it's trying to compete in the AL East in 2018 with those Red Sox and Yankees teams. And if it really was an ownership decision, Shapiro should've convinced Ed Rogers otherwise.

 

They could have sold at the 2017 deadline (JD and Happ would have had 1.5 years of control left, and Stroman/Osuna 3.5 years each). Regardless, they didn't need to tear down. They could have traded JD in mid 2017 and still tried to win in 2018. Maybe they use that saved money in free agency, or to acquire a player in trade, etc. Not being able to leverage the assets they had while still being able to fake an attempt at contending is definitely on them. Rogers wants to make money, so of course they won't want to rebuild when attendance is high, but that should not have prevented Shatkins from trading certain players in order to maximize the return.

 

 

You do realize that player development isn't linear, nor does it happen overnight, right? Smoak was acquired before the 2015 season, and it wasn't until 2017 that he figured it out. You can't judge a whole player development system based on such small sample sizes, especially when it comes to such young players. Judging guys like Billy McKinney, Teoscar Hernandez, Brandon Drury on 1 and a half month small sample sizes is dumb.

 

What percentage do you give any of those players turning into 2-3 WAR types, especially in this organization? 10%? 5%? It's pretty damn small. At least with Grichuk you can hope on a 3+ WAR path if he puts things together, but the others are huge long shots. As far as development, almost nothing in baseball is linear, but there are indicators to show breakout potential. For me, BB% is huge. If you're a 5% BB type, then I'm not counting on that player turning into much unless he has a Javy Baez type of hitting ability, and that's not very common. Base running is important. Defence (which Shatkins typically ignores) is important. Exit velocity and stat cast performance is important. You can't just look at age and some minor league numbers without context and assume a player has potential to improve.

[Deadpool]

If by that you mean playing to his talent level, then yeah. He's been a pretty consistent 80 wRC+ hitter for the past 4 seasons.

 

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant. Sogard is likely next. Hopefully a few of the guys that are playing way below their talent level will have a hot streak to make up for those two.

[Brownie19]

The shine really came off Galvis in a hurry.

 

Wait until Sogard's wRC+ is back down in the 80's. It's painful boys. Painful year.

[Brownie19]

He also has a 5-6% BB% for his career and is in an era where he will increasingly see more and more off speed stuff. I think expecting a huge breakout, beyond the 2.5 WAR type that he has been, is not as likely as I would have thought a year ago.

 

 

 

 

They could have sold at the 2017 deadline (JD and Happ would have had 1.5 years of control left, and Stroman/Osuna 3.5 years each). Regardless, they didn't need to tear down. They could have traded JD in mid 2017 and still tried to win in 2018. Maybe they use that saved money in free agency, or to acquire a player in trade, etc. Not being able to leverage the assets they had while still being able to fake an attempt at contending is definitely on them. Rogers wants to make money, so of course they won't want to rebuild when attendance is high, but that should not have prevented Shatkins from trading certain players in order to maximize the return.

 

 

 

 

What percentage do you give any of those players turning into 2-3 WAR types, especially in this organization? 10%? 5%? It's pretty damn small. At least with Grichuk you can hope on a 3+ WAR path if he puts things together, but the others are huge long shots. As far as development, almost nothing in baseball is linear, but there are indicators to show breakout potential. For me, BB% is huge. If you're a 5% BB type, then I'm not counting on that player turning into much unless he has a Javy Baez type of hitting ability, and that's not very common. Base running is important. Defence (which Shatkins typically ignores) is important. Exit velocity and stat cast performance is important. You can't just look at age and some minor league numbers without context and assume a player has potential to improve.

 

why do you suggest Shatkin's ignores defense?

 

Maile is great defensively, so is Galvis. Drury's very good defensively and so is Grichuk, Smoak's good at 1st too.

[Olerud363]

Wait until Sogard's wRC+ is back down in the 80's. It's painful boys. Painful year.

 

Two ways this can play out...

 

a) If Vladdy like he can he will make up for Sogard. Or else someone like McKinney or Grichuk or Smoak will play like that for 2 weeks cuz everybodies best two weeks are kind of like Sogards

 

no one else has a hot two weeks. Team continues hitting as is, however without hot Sogard team on base percentage goes into the .270s, Vladdy has to go down, Jansen too maybe

 

So either things will remain about the same (other people making up for Sogard) or if everyone else stays the same it will be a historicly bad team with the worst offense ever.

[Spanky99]

Two ways this can play out...

 

a) If Vladdy like he can he will make up for Sogard. Or else someone like McKinney or Grichuk or Smoak will play like that for 2 weeks cuz everybodies best two weeks are kind of like Sogards

 

no one else has a hot two weeks. Team continues hitting as is, however without hot Sogard team on base percentage goes into the .270s, Vladdy has to go down, Jansen too maybe

 

So either things will remain about the same (other people making up for Sogard) or if everyone else stays the same it will be a historicly bad team with the worst offense ever.

 

Can you stop Olerud, every f***ing day... go write children books or something. Jesus Christ!

[keggy]

why do you suggest Shatkin's ignores defense?

 

Maile is great defensively, so is Galvis. Drury's very good defensively and so is Grichuk, Smoak's good at 1st too.

 

It's quite clear that the front office does not value defense relative to other skills. The team has ranked near the bottom of the league in defense since they took over, including last in all of the majors last year.

[glory]

why do you suggest Shatkin's ignores defense?

 

Maile is great defensively, so is Galvis. Drury's very good defensively and so is Grichuk, Smoak's good at 1st too.

 

They may not intentionally be ignoring it, but that seems to be a pretty consistent pattern with them except for Galvis. Even Grichuk is being used at CF this year where his defensive metrics are worse and his overall value will be hurt by it. They signed Pearce (good) but used him almost exclusively in left (stupid). Gave three years to a DH who makes my sprint speed look like Bolt's by comparison. Teoscar has improved this year but still kinda sucks. McKinney sucks. Gurriel is really bad in the infield and he had to go borderline Chuck Knoblauch before Shatkins was willing to try him in the OF in AAA. Solarte sucked defensively. Granderson was best suited as a DH by the time they signed him.

 

Signing Galvis was a good sign, at least they acknowledge they needed a defensive upgrade there, but overall the track record isn't good.

[BlueRocky]

We were terrible defensively last year, in pretty much every metric measured.

But so far we’re actually a pretty competent defensive team. I guess it helps to actually have a shortstop this year, especially one with two legs and Teoscar not being a complete liability.

[5ToolPhenom]

I didnt like the Shapiro hiring at the time and said so. So far in year 4 this is the worst team I ever remember watching. He has traded away what assets we had, for not much, whether that is due to inury or his waiting too long to move.

 

This team cant hit, certainly cant catch the ball and,other than Stroman, there is not a pitcher that starts that anyone can look at and think, we have a chance to win the game. Sanchez has an attitude problem, calls out his teammates with no repercussions, and takes the mound with a sullen attitude.

 

There is a manager that seems like he was hired because he had a great deal of knowledge of stats etc, but doesnt use them.

 

They bring up a kid who no doubt will be terrific but put him in a position that he couldnt possibly live up to the hype.

 

The farm system is rated third but exactly when will all those players actually start to make their way to the majors, in what year. And where is the pitching. Ok, so the team will have money to go out and buy pitching, but how many free agents will come to T.O.

 

The outfield is embarassing. Grichuk is given a long term contract for what so far has been mediocre results. We had that in Pillar.

 

Yes, they are rebuilding, but the Yankees managed a rebuild without putting an embarassing team on the field.

 

Other than Vladdy, who on this team that should be a sure thing.

 

In all my years, and they are many, there has never been a time when I would turn off the game and walk away because I didnt like the team, even JP Ricciardi ‘s teams. But this year it happens more and more.

 

Fans will go along with rebuilds but they have to be able to look forward and see the future, and if Shapiros promise is three or four more years away, the fans wont be there. Looked at the attemdance so far, it is sinking to expo levels and it isnt going to be better in August.

 

This is just my opinion, and I know that it is the odd man out on this board, but Shapiro and company will be fired before the end of 2020 if there is not significant progress

 

I agree with a lot of what you're saying. If the team is a dumpster fire in 2020, I think it's time to go another management route.

[Olerud363]

Can you stop Olerud, every f***ing day... go write children books or something. Jesus Christ!

 

Jesus... The team has a .284 on base percentage the worst in team history...

 

It's quite likely that Sogard will regress downwards and someone currently struggling will regress upwards and it will even out. In fact it's likely team hitting will improve even if Sogard regresses.

 

Again all I was is IF ONLY Sogard regresses to his norm, and no one else regresses (positively) to their norms then the team will be historically bad.

 

It's pretty interesting what triggers people on this board

 

a) Yo Bro - Bunt in the 8th inning. Charie's an idiot

(Endorphins hit poster's brain, rewards other poster) - Props Bro - Damn right. Charlie's an idiot

 

If Charlie is an idiot, is it possible team hitting is historically bad because the coaching staff can't keep up with Modern Analytics which involves processing data on pitch sequences on a game by game basis??

(Too complicated for the Board, no endorphins, start insults) - Shut up Bro - Go write children's books...

Edited May 9, 2019 by Olerud363

[Barkerfan23]

Shapiro was on baseball central yesterday,

 

Its an amazing listen. I was begining to worry, but ten minutes listening to the guy, assures you that he knows what is doing.

[Olerud363]

Shapiro was on baseball central yesterday,

 

Its an amazing listen. I was begining to worry, but ten minutes listening to the guy, assures you that he knows what is doing.

 

What did he say that put your mind at ease?

[Carlos Danger]

Shapiro was on baseball central yesterday,

 

Its an amazing listen. I was beginning to worry, but ten minutes listening to the guy, assures you that he knows what is doing.

 

That is the thing... Very corporate, uses all the words that are trendy when presenting to a board or executive committee. I am sure his power points are also top notch.

 

The process, collaborative, collaboration, creating and environment for success etc, etc..

 

I will admit I have stolen some of his sales pitch for my projects that I have presented. His spiel is a very good one in today's corporate world.

 

The thing is though, we also use an expression.. At the end of the day... Meaning.. At the end of the day, his mission is to have on field success at a high level for the major league team one or more WS wins.

 

He did not accomplish that in Cleveland and so far, the results of his strategy have not come to fruition in Toronto. However, as mentioned, he appears to have a good strategy and is a good sales person for the strategy.

 

He needs to start showing tangible results... by end of 2020 season IMO. BA and MLB.com prospect rating etc don't mean crap if you are not showing results after 5 years at the ML level.

[Barkerfan23]

What did he say that put your mind at ease?

 

If you listen to the man, he knows what he is doing. There is just a certain level of clarity and confidence.

 

I didn't know Shapiro's background was in player development,

 

The approach, the smoothness, but most importantly the understanding that you never ever panic. You have to see the plan through. People forget that he didn't just rebuild an Indians team once, he did it twice.

[Olerud363]

That is the thing... Very corporate, uses all the words that are trendy when presenting to a board or executive committee. I am sure his power points are also top notch.

 

The process, collaborative, collaboration, creating and environment for success etc, etc..

 

I will admit I have stolen some of his sales pitch for my projects that I have presented. His spiel is a very good one in today's corporate world.

 

The thing is though, we also use an expression.. At the end of the day... Meaning.. At the end of the day, his mission is to have on field success at a high level for the major league team one or more WS wins.

 

He did not accomplish that in Cleveland and so far, the results of his strategy have not come to fruition in Toronto. However, as mentioned, he appears to have a good strategy and is a good sales person for the strategy.

 

He needs to start showing tangible results... by end of 2020 season IMO. BA and MLB.com prospect rating etc don't mean crap if you are not showing results after 5 years at the ML level.

 

I tend to agree with you Carlos... At least on your analysis of the Corporate dynamics.

 

The phrase "At the end of the Day..." is apt. Certainly not a popular concept on the board.. . Many board members, including yourself, are trained to collect treats from suits... No offense to you, as obviously you are very aware of the game you are playing.

 

If one presents reality, the .284 team on base percentage, the lack of player development, you are quickly slaughtered. Even if you concede that the situation may change.

 

In the corporate world, in which we live, we get treats by pretending everything is OK. We get treats for ignoring warning signs. We get treats for keeping things simple.

 

That's why everyone loves the "Charlie bunts too much" conversation. It's gloriously simple on both sides. It means little, but it serves it's purpose, an opportunity to signal our allegiance to one side or the other.

 

The more complicated conversation, about modern analytics and player development is shut down. As everyone knows addressing reality is not the path to goodies.

[Brownie19]

This thread is focusing too much on hitters. The obvious mistake was signing 35 year old s*** bag innings eaters like Richard and Buchholz instead of 28-30 year old ones like Lyles, Martin Perez, Pomeranz and Moore. At least there's a modicum of talent there and you can roll the dice that way.

 

Still think it's a massive miss by the FO to not sign Pomeranz?

 

5.93 ERA, 5.77 FIP and injured (what's new?). Almost exactly what he did for the Red Sox last year.

[Dick_Pole]

You don't understand the point I was trying to make. I don't see the advantage that a 35 year old guy like Richard/Buchholz would present over a younger guy like Pomeranz. They would both be signed to do the same thing but one had a modicum of upside.

 

Also on Pomeranz, his velocity's back up. His xFIP is 4 because of his nearly 30% HR/FB. And his K% is back up to 24%. So he's most likely serviceable again.

 

I also never said it's a "massive miss" and I generally like this FO so stop trying to make me present arguments against them lol. Although, like I said, I never understood the rationale to signing these super old guys. 35+ is really quite useless nowadays.

 

I don't get your narrative here. If the purpose is to sign a one year seat warmer, who cares whether the pitcher is 28 or 35? If you're trying to sign someone good to a multi-year deal, yeah obviously you want a younger player, all else being equal.

[Brownie19]

I don't get your narrative here. If the purpose is to sign a one year seat warmer, who cares whether the pitcher is 28 or 35? If you're trying to sign someone good to a multi-year deal, yeah obviously you want a younger player, all else being equal.

 

I agree Dick. I think his point is you could take a 1 year flyer on them and if you happen to 'hit' and think their success is sustainable, you could then sign them to a longer deal (instead of trading them at the deadline). I doubt there's much history of that happening successfully - but it is a possibility.

[Deadpool]

I agree Dick. I think his point is you could take a 1 year flyer on them and if you happen to 'hit' and think their success is sustainable, you could then sign them to a longer deal (instead of trading them at the deadline). I doubt there's much history of that happening successfully - but it is a possibility.

 

Get guys who still have arb years, like Shoemaker who is *checks notes* 32.

[Stangstag]

The last couple pages of this thread are bad

[Boxcar]

Since pitchers tend to blow up at any time, I don't really think age matters that much.

[tercet]

Shatkins are epic fail, I was willing to give them to the end of 2020, but the amount of epic fails is getting stupid.

 

Each admin can get a a few, but with Donaldson trade fail, punting 2018, DSJ, overhyping AAAA scrubs (Drury, Hernandez, Gurriel, McKinney) it's stupid.

 

Then f***in Shill Davidi, Jeff Blair, Arash Madani, Hazel Mae and Arden Shilling are basically Sarah Sanders spinning every Shatkins move, not admitting fails or calling them out.

 

The only Toronto Jays blogger/writter/report that will call out Shatkins is DrewGROF and Stoeten.

Edited May 12, 2019 by tercet
UPD

[Jaysareus]

2 to 3 years of the 4 was mostly fixing the mess AA left them

[Grant77]

2 to 3 years of the 4 was mostly fixing the mess AA left them

 

A playoff calibre roster and average farm system? Heck of a mess.

 

I understand that there were some serious issues with roster construction, but they weren't inheriting the Orioles. It was a pretty good situation all things considered.

[Spanky99]

Shatkins are epic fail, I was willing to give them to the end of 2020, but the amount of epic fails is getting stupid.

 

Each admin can get a a few, but with Donaldson trade fail, punting 2018, DSJ, overhyping AAAA scrubs (Drury, Hernandez, Gurriel, McKinney) it's stupid.

 

Then f***in Shill Davidi, Jeff Blair, Arash Madani, Hazel Mae and Arden Shilling are basically Sarah Sanders spinning every Shatkins move, not admitting fails or calling them out.

 

The only Toronto Jays blogger/writter/report that will call out Shatkins is DrewGROF and Stoeten.

 

This happened ^^^^^

[5ToolPhenom]

Ehhh, I think all things considered, it's fair to say that Shapiro and Atkins haven't exactly been knocking it out of the park. I know a lot fans will roast me on this, but I think they've been simply fairly decent.

 

A lot of folks on Reddit will defend this regime at all costs, but I'm just not seeing anything overly impressive with them. They're taking a pretty standard and by the book approach, which is fine, but I think most people would've hoped that when they came on board that the team would be a little further along by 2019.