Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Olerud363]

Grant, you're completely insufferable. I actually agree with you that Sanchez is probably a very good reliever over the next few years. The comparison to Brandon League was not a slight. League had a stretch of 5 years from 2008-2012 where he averaged over 60 IP per season with a 7/3 K/BB, a 58% GB rate, an 83 ERA-, and an 84 xFIP- while using primarily a GB inducing 95+ MPH fastball.

 

League was a good reliever. I think Sanchez will be a good reliever. I think Sanchez will do it similarly to the way League did it: ~7/3 K/BB, GB rate around 60%, big velo fastball as his best pitch. I don't believe that you actually don't see the similarities there. They're very similar pitchers. Maybe Sanchez has a better run. Maybe he doesn't.

 

Grant is insufferable because he doesn't understand the nature of knowledge. He's like a 22 year old Waterloo Math student who starts watching the Stock market in his senior year... then thinks he can beat it, cuz he's a top math whiz. Most people, as they age, realize the world is f***ing competitive.

[Jimcanuck]

Hi JimCanuck

 

Months ago I was on the other side of this argument. I too was thinking Carpenter and Halladay were good comparables for Sanchez. However I think as Blue Jays fans we are influenced too much by Blue Jays past successes.

 

The argument on the other side is that if you just pick the top comparables for Sanchez through age 23, most have not had great success. Carpenter is kind of similar, but probably not top-10 similar and we just pick him because we know him.

 

Wrong. I made the comp because I watched every Chris Carpenter start with the Jays, and Sanchez starts reminds me of those.

 

And I don't see similarities with Halladay at all.

[Olerud363]

Wrong. I made the comp because I watched every Chris Carpenter start with the Jays, and Sanchez starts reminds me of those.

 

And I don't see similarities with Halladay at all.

 

OK. My recollection is that Halladay couldn't control his stuff... he just kept walking guys and leaving meet balls up in the zone. That's what I see when Sanchez starts.

 

In his first 2 years as a starter Halladay had about a 1-1 k/bb, Carpenter was 2-1... Sanchez is about 1-1 as a starter

 

So I see Sanchez' path to success being much more similar to Halladays -- an aha moment/mechanical adjustment that leads to control...

 

Carpenter just recovered from injuries and took it to the next level... I don't recall a magic moment that changed everything.

 

That's what we are talking about with Sanchez... it has to be-- his major league rates as a starter are awful, his minor league numbers are mediocre... so there has to be this moment where everything changes... it's happened for other guys so maybe it will happen for Sanchez.

[Grant77]

Hi JimCanuck

 

Months ago I was on the other side of this argument. I too was thinking Carpenter and Halladay were good comparables for Sanchez. However I think as Blue Jays fans we are influenced too much by Blue Jays past successes.

 

The argument on the other side is that if you just pick the top comparables for Sanchez through age 23, most have not had great success. Carpenter is kind of similar, but probably not top-10 similar and we just pick him because we know him.

 

You compared him to Halladay and Carpenter and I'm the one with no knowledge....right.

[Olerud363]

You compared him to Halladay and Carpenter and I'm the one with no knowledge....right.

 

You have serious issues. You are missing my point completely.

 

My first inpression was that Halladay, Carpenter and Sanchez were similar... and they are. Tall, High School, 1st rounders, throw right, high ground ball rates, only average minor league careers, struggled as starters early as major leaguers, throw fairly hard.

 

They are more similar to each other, then they are to say Sean Nolin, or Sean Marcum.

 

What has been explained to me is that there are many more pitchers (than I think) that fit this profile... they are not all successful.

 

If you mine the data further you may indeed find better comparables... but this won't really help make a projection because at this point you won't have enough data, you will just overfit.

[Grant77]

You have serious issues. You are missing my point completely.

 

My first inpression was that Halladay, Carpenter and Sanchez were similar... and they are. Tall, High School, 1st rounders, throw right, high ground ball rates, only average minor league careers, struggled as starters early as major leaguers, throw fairly hard.

 

They are more similar to each other, then they are to say Sean Nolin, or Sean Marcum.

 

What has been explained to me is that there are many more pitchers (than I think) that fit this profile... they are not all successful.

 

If you mine the data further you may indeed find better comparables... but this won't really help make a projection because at this point you won't have enough data, you will just overfit.

 

The are NOT many pitchers that fit this profile. That's the point you need to understand. I'm on my phone so can't check, but starters that get 60% ground balls are very rare. Ones that throw 95+ are almost non-existent.

 

Quality of contact is not adequately accounted for in projections. It will be someday, but you need to consider it with an extreme outlier like Sanchez.

[Brownie19]

Can we just close this thread? thank you in advance for the consideration.

[Olerud363]

The are NOT many pitchers that fit this profile. That's the point you need to understand. I'm on my phone so can't check, but starters that get 60% ground balls are very rare. Ones that throw 95+ are almost non-existent.

 

Quality of contact is not adequately accounted for in projections. It will be someday, but you need to consider it with an extreme outlier like Sanchez.

 

He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works.

 

We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier.

 

GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.

[Olerud363]

Can we just close this thread? thank you in advance for the consideration.

 

How about a compromise... let's just reply to Grant using old Sanchez thread material... don't close the thread but don't write any new material

 

For example this one has some good material you can cut and paste

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/4762-Sanchez-Performance-To-Date/page11

[Olerud363]

The are NOT many pitchers that fit this profile. That's the point you need to understand. I'm on my phone so can't check, but starters that get 60% ground balls are very rare. Ones that throw 95+ are almost non-existent.

 

Quality of contact is not adequately accounted for in projections. It will be someday, but you need to consider it with an extreme outlier like Sanchez.

 

Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command.

 

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

[BigCecil]

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

 

And Harold Reynolds...and Gibby.

[Olerud363]

And Harold Reynolds...and Gibby.

 

Give NJH an extra thanks next time you read a post of his... borrowed a little of his material today... hope I don't hear it from his Lawyers

[King]

Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command.

 

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

 

This board is funny to read. The same people make ridiculous statements and use outdated stats that Harold Reynolds wouldn't even use and then proceed to get embarrassed by the same people time and time again. It's like watching a bird fly into the window over and over and over.

[The Cats Ass]

He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works.

 

We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier.

 

GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.

 

Yes, he throws 94... He also throws 95, 96, 97, 98, 99. How many pitchers hit 99?

[Spoonovic]

Debate top:

1-Sanchez ceiling

2-Hechavarria

3-Goins real value

4-Kyle Drabek

5-JP Arencibia over TdA, YanG

 

Just found out that Hechavarria had a 3.0 WAR last year. Mind = blown.

[Grant77]

He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works.

 

We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier.

 

GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.

 

If you seriously believe that for every single player than I have nothing else to say to you. I prefer critical thinking over your mentality any day of the week.

[Grant77]

Just found out that Hechavarria had a 3.0 WAR last year. Mind = blown.

 

His D alone has always been worth a lot. I always said if he found an average bat then he'd be worth 3+ WAR.

[Angrioter]

Just found out that Hechavarria had a 3.0 WAR last year. Mind = blown.

 

Tercet....are you there?

[Brownie19]

His D alone has always been worth a lot. I always said if he found an average bat then he'd be worth 3+ WAR.

 

Funny thing is - his bat wasn't anywhere near "average" last year (wRC+ of 86). If he found an average bat, we're probably looking at 5+ WAR.

[Olerud363]

If you seriously believe that for every single player than I have nothing else to say to you. I prefer critical thinking over your mentality any day of the week.

 

Oh? You don't say.

 

You know what does the best job of interpreting the natural variance in the recorded outcomes? The tools that say Sanchez is as bad at pitching as you are at posting.

[Grant77]

Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command.

 

Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.

 

Let's test your theory. I start in 2002 where fangraphs started tracking velocity and make an exhaustive list of pitchers who average 94+ on their fastball and get over 58% groundballs.

 

Ready?

 

Here's the exhaustive list:

 

1. Aaron Sanchez

 

That's right, there's nobody else. You can lower it to 93 if you think he loses velocity, still nobody. Hell, I could only find one individual season in that timeframe and that was 2007 Felix Hernandez.

 

There just aren't many pitchers with 3 key things that Sanchez possesses. Those are stamina (maintains 94+ up to 100 pitches), extreme groundball ability, and great velocity. The strikeouts are a concern. The walks are a concern. If you doubt that he is capable of fixing it though, look at his command in relief. I don't expect a big change, but there's some potential improvement to be had.

 

Let's not waste a unique talent, especially with that all gold glove caliber infield D that we have.

[King]

lmao

[Jimcanuck]

Syndergaard or Sanchez debate not over

[Boxcar]

I find it funny that Grant doesn't seem to know that a stud defender with an average bat is a 4-6 WAR player. Would appreciate if you all could stop quoting, though. Guy gets under my skin so easily.

[Laika]

Let's test your theory. I start in 2002 where fangraphs started tracking velocity and make an exhaustive list of pitchers who average 94+ on their fastball and get over 58% groundballs.

 

Ready?

 

Here's the exhaustive list:

 

1. Aaron Sanchez

 

That's right, there's nobody else. You can lower it to 93 if you think he loses velocity, still nobody. Hell, I could only find one individual season in that timeframe and that was 2007 Felix Hernandez.

 

There just aren't many pitchers with 3 key things that Sanchez possesses. Those are stamina (maintains 94+ up to 100 pitches), extreme groundball ability, and great velocity. The strikeouts are a concern. The walks are a concern. If you doubt that he is capable of fixing it though, look at his command in relief. I don't expect a big change, but there's some potential improvement to be had.

 

Let's not waste a unique talent, especially with that all gold glove caliber infield D that we have.

 

Today in Fact Checking Grant...

 

Minimum 120 innings to match Sanchez' sample size:

 

Jonny Venters Braves 68.40% 94.5

Sam Dyson - - - 67.10% 95.3

Jake Petricka White Sox 64.00% 94.1

Zach Britton Orioles 62.00% 93.3

Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays 61.80% 95.5

Brandon League - - - 60.50% 95.2

Bryan Morris - - - 59.40% 94.9

Jim Johnson - - - 58.30% 94.1

Ronald Belisario

 

Lower the IP all the way to 20 to eliminate survivor bias and we can add more names (all 94+)...

 

Waldis Joaquin

Luis Garcia

Blake Treinen

Evan Marshall

 

Some of these guys are in the majors, pitching right now, with the same or very similar skillset to Sanchez'. Blake Treinen's repertoire in particular is strikingly similar.

 

If you were looking only at qualified starters, which you probably were, then that's a list that Sanchez himself wouldn't qualify for. Further, he barely averaged 94 as a SP (I think), so he would be extremely unlikely to have a career where he sits over 94mph. If he's lucky enough to start for the next few years then you're probably looking at an average velo a lot lower than his career to date. Heck a full season in the rotation right now probably has the effect of dropping his average velo way down.

 

You also forgot 2005 AJ Burnett, otherwise known as Sanchez' light at the end of the tunnel, on your single season qualified SP list.

 

"exhaustive"

 

Who the f*** raised you?

[Jimcanuck]

I find it funny that Grant doesn't seem to know that a stud defender with an average bat is a 4-6 WAR player. Would appreciate if you all could stop quoting, though. Guy gets under my skin so easily.

 

Thanks, that's good to know

[Boxcar]

Today in Fact Checking Grant...

 

Minimum 120 innings to match Sanchez' sample size:

 

Jonny Venters Braves 68.40% 94.5

Sam Dyson - - - 67.10% 95.3

Jake Petricka White Sox 64.00% 94.1

Zach Britton Orioles 62.00% 93.3

Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays 61.80% 95.5

Brandon League - - - 60.50% 95.2

Bryan Morris - - - 59.40% 94.9

Jim Johnson - - - 58.30% 94.1

Ronald Belisario

 

Lower the IP all the way to 20 to eliminate survivor bias and we can add more names (all 94+)...

 

Waldis Joaquin

Luis Garcia

Blake Treinen

Evan Marshall

 

Some of these guys are in the majors, pitching right now, with the same or very similar skillset to Sanchez'. Blake Treinen's repertoire in particular is strikingly similar.

 

If you were looking only at qualified starters, which you probably were, then that's a list that Sanchez himself wouldn't qualify for. Further, he barely averaged 94 as a SP (I think), so he would be extremely unlikely to have a career where he sits over 94mph. If he's lucky enough to start for the next few years then you're probably looking at an average velo a lot lower than his career to date. Heck a full season in the rotation right now probably has the effect of dropping his average velo way down.

 

You also forgot 2005 AJ Burnett, otherwise known as Sanchez' light at the end of the tunnel, on your single season qualified SP list.

 

"exhaustive"

 

Who the f*** raised you?

 

What are you doing

[Boxcar]

Thanks, that's good to know

 

Yeah you are pretty good too, but he could teach you a few things. Maybe be a little (or a lot) more self absorbed and unaware, perhaps, if you really want to rustle my jimmies.

[Laika]

What are you doing

 

sorry, I have problems. I really shouldn't come to this board anymore.

[Boxcar]

sorry, I have problems. I really shouldn't come to this board anymore.

 

No need to be overdramatic. I'm just not sure what you're hoping to reap from an argument with Grant aside from frustration and a hatred for insectoids.